Educational mobility and the fertility of black and white women

In a test of the minority group status hypothesis, this study examines the effect of intergenerational educational mobility on the fertility of black and white women. Regression analysis of data from the National Survey of Family Growth provides only limited support for the hypothesis that upwardly mobile black women have lower fertility than their white counterparts. The main finding is that the parity of upwardly mobile black women is influenced more strongly by educational origins (parents' education) than is the parity of upwardly mobile white women. Thus, future studies should consider the effects of social origins on racial differences in fertility.This article is a revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, 23 August 1992, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.     

Economic and Institutional Context and Second Births in Seven European Countries

The extent to which mothers progress to a second child varies greatly between European countries. Although both institutional and economic context are believed to be partly responsible for these differences, available research on economic conditions and fertility mostly focuses on first births and studies on family policy and fertility have hitherto insufficiently addressed population heterogeneity. Combining longitudinal microdata from the Harmonized Histories with contextual data on labour market uncertainty and family policy, this paper uses discrete-time hazard models to analyse the impact of economic and institutional context on second birth hazards of 22,298 women in 7 European countries between 1970 and 2002. Particular attention is paid to variation in the contextual effects by level of education. We find that aggregate-level unemployment and temporary employment reduce second birth hazards, particularly for low- and medium-level educated women. Family policies are positively related to second birth hazards. Whereas family allowances stimulate second births particularly among low educated mothers, the positive effect of childcare is invariant by level of education.     

The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe

This article analyzes the impact on fertility of changes in national expenditure for family allowances, maternity- and parental-leave benefits, and childcare subsidies. To do so, I estimate a model for the timing of births using individual-level data from 16 western European countries, supplemented with data on national social expenditure for different family policy programs. The latter allow approximation of the subsidies that households with children receive from such programs. The results show that increased expenditure on family policy programs that help women to combine family and employment-and thus reduce the opportunity cost of children—generates positive fertility responses.     

The one child certificate in Hebei province,China: Acceptance and consequence, 1979–1988

As part of its One Child Policy, China developed the one child certificate which offered numerous benefits to couples who had one child and promised to have no more. Using data from the Two-per-Thousand National Fertility Survey, this study describes the level of certificate acceptance in Hebei province from 1979 to 1988 and analyzes socioeconomic, cultural and early family formation factors affecting certificate acceptance as well as the role of certificate acceptance on transition to second parity. During the past decade, the level of initial certificate acceptance was 22.6 percent. This estimate is much lower than earlier published rates because it utilizes the concept of women at risk. Public resistance to the One Child Policy is evident in declining acceptance from 26.0 percent during the first five years of the policy to 11.3 percent during the 1984–1988 period. Women's response to the certificate has been influenced by the woman's status as reflected in education and occupation as well as cultural traditions, particularly son preference. The one child certificate, however, independently depresses subsequent fertility. This research indicates that efforts to understand fertility decline in China must simultaneously acknowledge the role of government family planning programs as well as socioeconomic and cultural factors.Revision of paper presented at the American Sociological Association Meeting, 1990.     

A review of the studies on fertility transition in China]

This article is a summary of papers and analysis in recent years on fertility transition and the association between fertility decline and socioeconomic development in China. These papers discuss the causes of fertility decline and the role of family planning programs in demographic transition. The major points are: 1. The demographic transition in China has the same characteristics as in the countries that have completed the transition. The transition had already started in the more developed areas or completed in a few large cities before family planning programs were implemented. 2. The role of family planning programs is to lead and to accelerate the demographic transition, which is the key idea of the "induced fertility transition". 3. The socioeconomic development and family planning programs worked together to affect the fertility decline, however socioeconomic development is the fundamental factor. Without the existence of the socioeconomic development, which included the changes in the function of family, traditional ideas on fertility, increased level of education, the status of women and social security system; the family planning program is not likely to make an impact.     

The differential effects of husbands' and wives' statuses on marital fertility

As an extension of prior subjectively-oriented studies that predicted couples' fertility decisions or outcomes by the expected costs and benefits of childbearing to husbands and wives, this article examines the differentiated effects of husbands' and wives' objective statuses on marital fertility, using the cumulative 1972–1990 GSS data. An interesting finding is that wives' education has a significant, negative effect on fertility while the effect of husbands' education is positive and statistically insignificant. This suggests that the generalization of the negative effect of education on fertility may be misleading if one fails to make a distinction between marital partners. Meanwhile, this study finds no significant differences in the effects of husbands' and wives' occupational and work statuses on fertility. By and large, the husbands' status variables add little information to the models explaining fertility. It is also found that the effects of husbands' and wives' statuses are contingent upon their relative education.     

Puzzles and further explorations in the interrelationships of successive births with husband’s income,spouses’ education and race

When fertility is examined in the detail of individual parity progressions and birth-order transitions, important interactions between the effects of income and education are seen. Among the findings are: the negative effect of education on fertility is stronger at all parities for less educated compared to more highly educated women. Additional income has a more positive effect for more highly educated than for less educated women. For women with 0-8 years of education the effect of more income is positive when the family has no children but negative thereafter, but for college-educated women the effect of more income is positive. And additional income has a less positive (more negative) effect on fertility among nonwhites than among whites.     

The determinants of marital fertility in the united states, 1968–1970: Inferences from a dynamic model

Criticizing the static assumptions of previous socioeconomic and microeconomic models of marital fertility, particularly regarding the sequential and stochastic facets of family building, this paper advocates a dynamic perspective. Of particular concern is the assumption of equilibrium family size made by those who employ the static perspective. The equilibrium family size assumption implies that the parameters relating social and economic variables to fertility will be similar for all births, regardless of order. To test this assumption of constancy, a two-equation model of fertility and female employment is introduced. Contrary to the static perspective’s implication of constant effects, substantial parity differences in the estimates of parameters for both equations are reported, as are several differences between blacks and whites. On the basis of this evidence, I conclude that the static decision-making framework should be replaced by a dynamic approach to marital fertility.     

An attempt at evaluation of the economic and social factors [influencing] the Polish population's fertility formation

This analysis of economic determinants of fertility in Poland shows that couples' fertility decisions are negatively influenced by factors affecting family income. Social and demographic factors were found to be unrelated to fertility. 17 socioeconomic measures were grouped as those expressing the level of economic development and determining family income size, those reflecting the level of socioeconomic development and determining the level of children's education, and those characterizing the level of social development and determining the need for health care and social security. The level of actual fertility is modeled as a linear function of variables in a main components factor analysis. Average monthly pay in the national economy (37.6%), the sold industrial production per person (13.8%), and the global agricultural production per person (13.2%) account for 64.6% of the variance. Among the social factors, findings indicate that a higher feeling of security is related to lower fertility, but economic factors have a stronger influence. Voivodeships are grouped as having low levels of economic development (24), as having high educational levels (24), and as having low levels of social security (24). Voivodeships with low levels of economic development and high parity include all the grouped voivodeships with the exception of three. Low-security voivodeships showed mixed patterns of fertility. High-education voivodeships showed a weak correlation with high fertility. Only three voivodeships have low economic and security factors and high education factors, and only one voivodeship has high fertility. Of the three voivodeships with high security and economic factors and low education factors, all have low parity.     

Residence background,socioeconomic status,and fertility

Previous research has demonstrated that socioeconomic differentials in fertility are heavily influenced by couples with rural background. These studies show an inverse relationship between fertility and socioeconomic status for couples of rural background, but no relationship for urbanorigin couples. The effect of urban background on rural fertility differentials has not been examined. This study investigates the potential effect of urban-origin couples on socioeconomic differences in fertility in rural areas. Data from the 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity are analyzed to show that rural socioeconomic fertility differences are not influenced by the presence of persons of urban background.     

The Pronatalist Undercurrent of the $500-per-Child Tax Credit

A review of studies which find a positive impact of tax structure on American fertility suggests this effect will increase with the tax benefits legislated by the 1997 $500-per-child tax credit. The tax credit also resembles pronatalist family allowances in other developed countries. First, however, the article investigates the intent of the tax credit, showing that key supporters hope it will increase fertility among tax-paying Americans. Lastly, the pronatalist undercurrent of the tax credit suggests that future efforts will push for further increasing the tax benefits of children in order to increase the American birth rate.     

Family cap provisions and changes in births and abortions

As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, 23 states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births. We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates. We use age, marital status, and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap. In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap. However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap. Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap.     

Family cap provisions and changes in births and abortions

As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, 23 states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births. We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates. We use age, marital status, and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap. In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap. However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap. Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap.     

Urbanization and fertility: An event-history analysis of Coastal Ghana

In this article, we undertake an event-history analysis of fertility in Ghana. We exploit detailed life history calendar data to conduct a more refined and definitive analysis of the relationship among personal traits, urban residence, and fertility. Although urbanization is generally associated with lower fertility in developing countries, inferences in most studies have been hampered by a lack of information about the timing of residence in relationship to childbearing. We find that the effect of urbanization itself is strong, evident, and complex, and persists after we control for the effects of age, cohort, union status, and education. Our discrete-time event-history analysis shows that urban women exhibit fertility rates that are, on average, 11% lower than those of rural women, but the effects vary by parity. Differences in urban population traits would augment the effects of urban adaptation itself. Extensions of the analysis point to the operation of a selection effect in rural-to-urban mobility but provide limited evidence for disruption effects. The possibility of further selection of urbanward migrants on unmeasured traits remains. The analysis also demonstrates the utility of an annual life history calendar for collecting such data in the field.     

Nepal survey shows that "family planning saves lives"

This article presents the results of the Nepal Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted from January through June 1996. Data on fertility, family planning, and maternal and child health were collected from 8429 ever-married women aged 15-49 years. These women provided information on 29,156 children. Using the method of regression analysis, findings reveal those factors, such as young mothers, large families, and short birth intervals, substantially increase under-five mortality risks. However, socioeconomic factors have only a limited effect on under-five mortality. Statistics have suggested that much of the urban/rural differences in mortality have been due to factors closely related to residence, mother's level of education and economic status. In addition, although positive effects of interventions (antenatal and postpartum checkups, tetanus immunization and assistance at delivery by a traditional birth attendant) have been documented, statistical results show that few children in Nepal are receiving the benefits of maternal health care. In conclusion, results of the 1996 NFHS show that delaying, spacing, and limiting births can substantially reduce infant and child mortality.     

Neighborhood context and the transition to sexual activity among young black women

Previous studies report that neighborhood characteristics influence pregnancy and childbearing risk among African-American adolescent women. These studies, however, leave unidentified the effects of many neighborhood properties on the proximate determinants of nonmarital fertility. In this study I examine the effects of neighborhood characteristics on the risk of nonmarital first intercourse and on contraceptive use among black female adolescents. The results suggest that neighborhood socioeconomic status, female employment and marital dissolution rates, and peers’ departure from mainstream lifecourse trajectories influence young black women’s sexual and contraceptive behavior. The effects of female employment and socioeconomic status are greater for teens in urban neighborhoods than for teens living elsewhere.     

Modern and traditional value orientations and fertility behavior: A social demographic study

Modern versus traditional value orientations based on the Kluckhohn and Strodtbeck schema are related to family size preferences and birth control effectiveness. Value orientations are viewed as mediating the relationship between socioeconomic status and the fertility behavior variables. Interviews with a probability sample of women in Lexington, Kentucky, provide the data for testing the hypothesized relationships. The results indicate that both value orientations and socioeconomic status are related to fertility behavior. The inference can be made that value orientations aid in interpreting the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility behavior but that other status-related variables are operating.     

Changes in fertility expectations and preferences between 1962 and 1977: Their relation to final parity

Changing fertility expectations and preferences from 1962 to 1977 are compared with final parity in a longitudinal study. Results are strongly affected by initial parity in 1962. Final parity, 27 percent below expectations for those initially childless, illustrates the effect for couples free to change expectations downward of declining fertility preferences. Changes in expectations early in marriage had a significant long-term effect on final parity, as did early differences between wife’s expectations and husband’s preferences. Unplanned births increased final parity significantly. Religion, education, and income had no systematic relation to the discrepancy between initial expectations and final parity.     

The determinants and patterns of married women's labor force participation in Korea

The present study investigates the determinants and patterns of married women's labor force participation in Korea. Married women's employment in Korea is largely determined by age, urban residence, household characteristics of the husband's socioeconomic status, family income, fertility, and the lagged effect of work. Older age, rural residence, inferior household economic condition, and recent work experience are the major positive causes of married women's participation in the market work. On the other hand, younger women with preschool children, who currently reside in urban areas, enjoying better household economic conditions (due to higher socioeconomic status of husbands and/or higher family income) are the groups of women with the smallest probability of working in the market. Married women's employment pattern in Korea shows a pattern typical of less-developed and low-income countries in two aspects: married women working and characterized by a low level of education; the difference between urban and rural areas in terms of work participation pattern is remarkable. Although Korea belongs to the advanced group of currently industrializing countries, she lags behind with other developing countries in terms of married women's employment. Moreover, it is difficult to predict in advance that Korea would have similar experiences as those of contemporary advanced countries.     

生育激励与个人所得税——理论逻辑与经验论据

中共十九大报告提出要进一步“促进生育政策和相关经济社会政策配套衔接”。在厘清税收激励生育的理论逻辑基础上,运用工资税模型,获取OECD国家对此的经验论据。结果显示,许多国家运用税收政策向有子女家庭提供正向激励,且更注重中低收入家庭。进一步分析发现,通常为符合资格条件的儿童设计相同的或递增的定额税收优惠,甚至为大规模家庭赋予额外优惠;将儿童税收宽免转化为抵免,引进收入限制和可退抵免制;单亲家庭可享受额外优惠,而已婚家庭还通过个人申报纳税、婚姻优惠、家庭申报纳税等多种举措受益。应汲取和借鉴OECD国家的成功经验,逐步构建我国“生育友好型”的税收制度。