Quick response and supply chain structure with strategic consumers

This work explores the impact of quick response on supply chain performance for various supply chain structures with strategic customer behavior. By investigating pricing and inventory decisions in decentralized supply chains under revenue-sharing contracts and in centralized supply chains, we study the performance of four various systems and compare the value of quick response in different supply chain structures. The results show that if the extra cost of quick response is relatively low, the value of quick response would be greater in centralized systems than in decentralized systems. On the other hand, if the extra cost is high, decentralized supply chains reap more incremental profits from adopting quick response. We also find that revenue-sharing contracts enable a decentralized supply chain to outperform a centralized supply chain, but only allow limited flexibility of allocating total profits between a manufacturer and a retailer.     

Transfer of risk in the newsvendor model with discrete demand

In this paper we consider the transfer of risk in a newsvendor model with discrete demand. We view the newsvendor model as a leader/follower problem where the manufacturer (leader) decides the wholesale price and the retailer (follower) decides the quantity ordered. Taking a Pareto-optimal contract as a starting point, the manufacturer wishes to design a real option contract to enhance profits. A new real option contract is said to be feasible if both parties' expected profit is at least as great as in the original contract. When demand is discrete, there are usually infinite feasible contracts that yield maximum expected profits to the manufacturer. In the paper we show that either all, some or none of these real option contracts offer an improved position for the retailer.     

Mixed contracts for the newsvendor problem with real options and discrete demand

In this paper we consider the newsvendor model with real options under discrete demand. We consider a mixed contract where the retailer can order a combination of q units subject to the conditions in a classical newsvendor contract and Q real options on the same items. We provide a closed form solution to this mixed contract when the demand is discrete and study some of its properties. In particular we demonstrate that a mixed contract may be superior to a real option contract when a manufacturer has a bound on how much variance she is willing to accept.     

The price-setting newsvendor with service and loss constraints

Current performance measurement systems consider not only financial measures, like costs and profits, but also non-financial indicators with respect to customer service, quality and flexibility. Using the newsvendor model, we analyse the respective influence of these possibly conflicting performance measures on important operations and marketing decisions, for instance the order quantity and the selling price of a product. As in the classical newsvendor model for price-independent as well as price-dependent demand distribution, the objective of the firm is to maximise expected profit. In this paper, we also consider a service constraint—a lower bound for the level of product availability—and a loss constraint—an upper bound for the probability of a loss occurring. For both models, we provide conditions for the existence of solutions. We then analyse the influence of demand variability using a set of conditions specifying the quantiles of the predetermined performance measures: a higher variability of demand implies a smaller admissible region of the decision variables. In the price-independent case, the optimal solution has a control-limit structure: the optimal order quantity is thus given either by the classical newsvendor solution or by the control-limits corresponding to the constraints. In the price-setting model with multiplicative demand, this structure is used to check whether small admissible prices are determined by the service constraint or by the loss constraint. Using these structural results, a procedure is developed to more easily enable the computation of the optimal values of the order quantity, selling price and expected profit.     

Risk tolerance and a retailer's pricing and ordering policies within a newsvendor framework

This paper evaluates the pricing and ordering policies of a retailer, facing a price-dependent stochastic demand, within a newsvendor framework, under different degrees of risk tolerance and under a variety of optimizing objectives. These are (i) maximizing expected profit, for a retailer who may be risk-seeker, risk-averse or risk neutral; (ii) deriving a maximin strategy of maximizing a minimum guaranteed profit and (iii) modeling the probability of exceeding a target profit, as a constraint or as an objective. Some analytical properties and numerical examples illustrate the main features of the models and provide some comparative policy analysis across the model.     

流动性约束与消费行为关系的实证研究

流动性约束是指资本市场的资金流动具有单向性,流动性约束的存在可以提高储蓄水 平,降低当期累积消费. 通过三阶段生命期界的最优消费模型,证明了流动性约束的定量存在, 并通过实证检验发现,我国消费总量中受流动性约束影响的比例达到83. 46 %. 因此,增强信 贷市场的流动性,对于扩张有效需求将起重要作用.     

消费者短视和以旧换新情形下设计架构与定价策略研究

耐用品的耐用性会抑制了新一代耐用品的销售,企业通常会采用以旧换新政策来激励新一代耐用品的销售。企业有两种产品设计架构策略:一体化架构策略与模块化架构策略,同时企业也有两种定价策略:静态定价策略和动态定价策略。在这种情况下,企业该如何确定产品设计架构和定价策略?在假定两期内消费者是短视情形下,论文建立了消费者与企业博弈模型分析和比较了三种情况。研究发现,无论是静态定价还是动态定价,无论是模块化架构还是一体化架构,购买了第一代产品的消费者都会整体更换成第二代产品;随着第二代核心系统的质量提升,以旧换新促使企业产品架构选择从一体化架构转变为选择模块化架构;当采用动态定价、第二代核心系统质量提升适中和折扣因子高时,企业会选择模块化架构;当企业采用模块化架构时,以旧换新政策会降低模块化产品第二代核心子系统和基础子系统之间的兼容性;如果两代产品之间的质量差距比较大,企业将会选择动态定价策略,反之会选择静态定价策略。     

Evaluating manufacturer's buyback policies in a single-period two-echelon framework under price-dependent stochastic demand

This paper attempts to model the profitability of a secondary market, in a newsvendor setting, to a profit-maximizing manufacturer, who is offering to the retailer a buyback policy for the unsold merchandise left at the end of the selling season. With a buyback agreement, the manufacturer shares the risks of demand uncertainty, thus inducing the buyer to place larger orders. The manufacturer's risk is mitigated to some extent by the availability of an extra market to dispose off the unsold merchandise. Both parties are risk-neutral profit-maximizers and both have the same information about the final demand for the product and its uncertainty. The manufacturer's decision is to arrive at an optimal wholesale price and the buyback price. Based on this offer, the retailer in turn sets the optimal amount of merchandise to purchase, as well as the unit selling price to meet a price-dependent uncertain demand for the merchandise in question. Due to the difficulty of obtaining analytical results, we have undertaken a numerical analysis to (i) compare the optimal policies across demand functions and error structures for three situations namely the no-incentive case and the buyback policies with and without a secondary market; (ii) indicate the conditions whereby the trade incentive is beneficial to both parties; (iii) assess the efficacy of the policies using two other performance indices (probability of achieving a target profit, and pass-through ratios) alternate to profit maximization; and (iv) conjecture the conditions for successful buyback policies and the nature of the benefits from the secondary market.     

A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision

A probability assessment framework is outlined for an organizational decision involving a conditioning event (CE). The decision may, for example, involve a new-product launch (strategic decision) dependent on the outcome of market research (CE). The framework illustrates how Bayesian revision could be employed as related “news” arrives intermittently to revise current probabilities prior to decision implementation. A unique contribution of this paper is its utilization of the analytic hierarchy process to ascertain a set of consistent and coherent probabilities for the event/sample spaces at all stages of the decision process.     

Optimal Retail Return Policies with Wardrobing

Many retailers offer refunds to consumers who, after a trial period, return a product that they find does not fit their needs. Some consumers are willing to use this return option opportunistically for short‐term consumption rather than its intended purpose of resolving fit uncertainty. Such behavior has been termed “wardrobing.” Restocking fees (partial refunds) can be used to combat wardrobing. However, there is a trade‐off involved, since partial refunds will be viewed negatively by consumers who return an item due to a true lack of fit. In this study, we consider how the extent of wardrobing (how many consumers consider such behavior) and the benefit of wardrobing (how much value can be extracted during the trial) impact firm pricing decisions and profits in this retail context. Our results imply that an increase in the extent of wardrobing is most detrimental to profits when the current extent of wardrobing is low. On the contrary, if the extent of wardrobing is already very high, and the benefit of wardrobing to consumers is also high, the retailer can set prices and refunds such that additional wardrobing actually increases firm profits. In a model extension, we show how a retailer can effectively screen wardrobers from ordinary consumers by offering a menu of price/refund pairs, and that such an approach can lead to increased profits if the extent of wardrobing is sufficiently high. Overall, our findings provide new insights into how retailers can set prices and refund policies to effectively manage opportunistic behavior by consumers.     

考虑残值变化和顾客异质性的零售商定价与库存决策

本文研究策略型消费者对零售商的定价和库存决策的影响。与以往的研究假设残值固定不变,且消费者均为策略型消费者不同的是,本文考虑了顾客的异质性以及残值由清仓期库存决定这一特点。本文的研究表明:在消费者均为策略型消费者,且清楚零售商将采取残值定价策略的情况下,零售商可以通过数量保证策略来提高自身的期望利润,降低库存订货量。在考虑顾客异质性的条件下,当零售商采取估值定价策略时,零售商的最大期望利润与短视型消费者在市场上的比例成正相关。并且,存在一个唯一的阈值点,当短视型消费者在市场上的比例高于这一阈值点时,估值定价策略优于保留价格定价策略,反之,则保留价格定价策略更优。     

Building dynamic capabilities for digital transformation: An ongoing process of strategic renewal

In this qualitative study, we explore how incumbent firms in traditional industries build dynamic capabilities for digital transformation. Digital transformation has been defined as the use of new digital technologies, such as mobile, artificial intelligence, cloud, blockchain, and the Internet of things (IoT) technologies, to enable major business improvements to augment customer experience, streamline operations, or create new business models. In making sense of digital transformation, we discovered that leaders in various industry circles use the term inconsistently to describe various strategizing and organizing activities; in addition, the term has gained limited scholarly attention as a context for study of strategic change. Drawing on senior executives' experiences with leading digitalization projects at incumbent firms, we propose a process model comprising of nine microfoundations to reveal the generic contingency factors that trigger, enable, and hinder the building of dynamic capabilities for digital transformation. Our findings reveal that digital transformation is an ongoing process of using new digital technologies in everyday organizational life, which recognizes agility as the core mechanism for the strategic renewal of an organization's (1) business model, (2) collaborative approach, and eventually the (3) culture.     

The Dynamic Newsvendor Model with Correlated Demand

The classic newsvendor model was developed under the assumption that period‐to‐period demand is independent over time. In real‐life applications, the notion of independent demand is often challenged. In this article, we examine the newsvendor model in the presence of correlated demands. Specifically under a stationary AR(1) demand, we study the performance of the traditional newsvendor implementation versus a dynamic forecast‐based implementation. We demonstrate theoretically that implementing a minimum mean square error (MSE) forecast model will always have improved performance relative to the traditional implementation in terms of cost savings. In light of the widespread usage of all‐purpose models like the moving‐average method and exponential smoothing method, we compare the performance of these popular alternative forecasting methods against both the MSE‐optimal implementation and the traditional newsvendor implementation. If only alternative forecasting methods are being considered, we find that under certain conditions it is best to ignore the correlation and opt out of forecasting and to simply implement the traditional newsvendor model.      

Monitoring the monitor: Enabling strategic change when the former CEO stays on the board

Firms often retain their former CEOs on the board after succession to benefit from the former CEOs’ firm-specific expertise. However, their presence can inhibit successor CEOs from implementing meaningful strategic change, as the former CEOs seek to preserve their personal legacy and may see the strategic landscape differently, especially when the successor CEO is hired from outside the firm. Using a strategic leadership interface perspective, we propose that board members can alleviate this potential tension and enable strategic change. To test our theory, we focus on a subsample of succession events: when the former CEO stays on board as chair and the successor CEO is an outsider. This scenario is likely to result in strategic tension and cognitive differences between these two organizational leaders. We find that in such situations, boards with a higher proportion of outside directors experience greater post-succession strategic change; we find no effect in other succession scenarios. We isolate legacy conservation as a motivating factor by showing that the effect manifests for divestitures but not for acquisitions.     

Digital orientation: Conceptualization and operationalization of a new strategic orientation

Although there is ample evidence that digital technologies are strategically important for value creation, extant literature lacks holistic concepts that capture an organization’s strategic orientation concerning digital innovation and transformation initiatives. This study integrates recent digitalization themes with IT business alignment research to conceptualize a new strategic orientation construct: digital orientation. The construct is manifested in four dimensions which we operationalize for computer-aided text analysis. We validate the construct based on 6498 shareholder letters from large US firms over 16 years. Building upon the resource-based view, we validate the digital orientation construct by linking it to firm performance. Our findings advance the literature on strategic orientations and bring the domains of strategy and information systems closer together. The novel digital orientation construct and the validated measurement instrument lead to many new research opportunities.     

顾客策略行为下差异产品两阶段定价模型研究

互联网和信息技术的发展,为零售商收集顾客信息带来方便的同时,也使得消费者变得越来越具有策略性和选择性。首先,构建零售商只销售一种高质量产品的情形,研究其两阶段的定价策略,并分析产品的跨期折扣因子对产品的零售价格、销售量和零售商利润的影响。然后,考虑零售商可提供高质量和低质量两种产品的情形,顾客在第一销售期、第二销售期都可以选择两种产品。构建两阶段的定价决策模型,并分析产品的跨期折扣因子、顾客对低质量产品的接受度等参数对产品两阶段的零售价格、销售量的影响。最后,用数值算例分析了第二种模型下顾客对低质量产品的接受度等模型参数对零售商两阶段总利润的影响,然后比较了第一种和第二种模型下高质量产品的零售价格和销售量。研究结论较全面的分析了顾客策略行为对差异产品两阶段销售期的定价决策的影响,为零售商进行定价优化决策提供了十分重要的参考。     

Strategic Management of Distressed Inventory

It is well known that maximizing revenue from a fixed stock of perishable goods may require discounting prices rather than allowing unsold inventory to perish. This behavior is seen in industries ranging from fashion retail to tour packages and baked goods. A number of authors have addressed the markdown management problem in which a seller seeks to determine the optimal sequence of discounts to maximize the revenue from a fixed stock of perishable goods. However, merchants who consistently use markdown policies risk training customers to “wait for the sale.” We investigate models in which the decision to sell inventory at a discount will change the future expectations of customers and hence their buying behavior. We show that, in equilibrium, a single‐price policy is optimal if all consumers are strategic and demand is known to the seller. Relaxing any of these conditions can lead to a situation in which a two‐price markdown policy is optimal. We show using numerical simulation that if customers update their expectations of availability over time, then optimal sales limit policies can evolve in a complex fashion.     

考虑战略顾客行为时的供应链性能分析与协调

动态定价策略的广泛应用使得越来越多的顾客具有了战略性,战略顾客会根据产品在销售期内的价格路径确定最优购买时机,零售商则根据顾客的购买行为确定订货数量和销售价格.研究了双方静态博弈时的理性预期均衡解和零售商进行数量承诺时的情形.研究表明:理性预期均衡时的最优销售价格、最优存货数量和最优期望利润分别小于标准报童模型的情形;数量承诺时的最优存货数量小于理性预期均衡时的最优存货数量;最优期望利润则大于理性预期均衡时的最优期望利润,并且在一定条件下可能会大于标准报童模型的最优期望利润,战略顾客行为的存在对零售商可能有利.最后分析了在分散式供应链中如何利用收入分享契约和数量折扣契约实现供应链协调.     

Channel coordination in supply chains with agents having mean-variance objectives

This paper investigates the issues of channel coordination in a supply chain when the individual supply chain decision makers take mean-variance (MV) objectives. We propose an MV formulation to capture the risk preference of each individual supply chain agent. Through the studies of a wholesale pricing policy, we find that the incorporation of risk concerns into the setting of supply chain coordinating policy is very important because it can substantially affect the achievability of channel coordination. It is also interesting to find that channel coordination depends on how big the net difference between the risk preferences of the supply chain coordinator and the retailer is. Thus, a slightly risk averse supply chain coordinator can successfully coordinate with a slightly risk prone retailer but not a very risk averse retailer. Numerical analyses are included and managerial insights are developed.