State Abortion Policy and Unintended Birth Rates in the United States

In this paper, we put forth the view that the potential for urbanization economies increases with interaction opportunities. From that premise follow three fundamental properties that an agglomeration index should possess: (1) to increase with the concentration of population and conform to the Pigou–Dalton transfer principle; (2) to increase with the absolute size of constituent population interaction zones; and (3) to be consistent in aggregation. Limiting our attention to pairwise interactions, and invoking the space-analytic foundations of local labor market area (LLMA) delineation, we develop an index of agglomeration based on the number of interaction opportunities per capita in a geographical area. This leads to Arriaga’s mean city-population size, which is the mathematical expectation of the size of the LLMA in which a randomly chosen individual lives. The index has other important properties. It does not require an arbitrary population threshold to separate urban from non-urban areas. It is easily adapted to situations where an LLMA lies partly outside the geographical area for which agglomeration is measured. Finally, it can be satisfactorily approximated when data is truncated or aggregated into size-classes. We apply the index to the Spanish NUTS III regions, and evaluate its performance by examining its correlation with the location quotients of several knowledge intensive business services known to be highly sensitive to urbanization economies. The Arriaga index’s correlations are clearly stronger than those of either the classical degree of urbanization or the Hirshman–Herfindahl concentration index.     

Work and Retirement Among a Cohort of Older Men in the United States, 1966–1983

Multivariate increment-decrement working life tables are estimated for a cohort of older men in the United States for the period 1966-1983. The approach taken allows multiple processes to be simultaneously incorporated into a single model, resulting in a more realistic portrayal of a cohort's late-life labor force behavior. In addition, because the life table model is developed from multivariate hazard equations, we identify the effects of sociodemographic characteristics on the potentially complex process by which the labor force career is ended. In contrast to the assumed homogeneity of previous working life table analyses, the present study shows marked differences in labor force mobility and working and nonworking life expectancy according to occupation, class of worker, education, race, and marital status. We briefly discuss the implications of these findings for inequities of access to retirement, private and public pension consumption, and future changes in the retirement process.     

Cohort trends in the lifetime distribution of female family headship in the United States, 1968–1985

We use the PSID Relationship File to estimate cohort trends in the lifetime incidence and duration of female family headship. Hazard (event-history) techniques are used to estimate movements into and out of headship, accounting for duration dependence and left-censored spells. The mean number of years spent in headship between ages 14 and 59 rose dramatically over the period. The increase arose from an increased number of headship spells, including an increase in the number of women ever experiencing headship, but not at all from an increase in durations of headship spells; those decreased slightly.     

The Demand for Immigration to the United States

This paper examines trends and cross-national variation in the active demand for immigration to the United States in the period of 1984–1993, using data from the Visa Office and various other sources. The analysis is restricted to legal immigration in numerically limited categories. The results show that the total number of active immigrant visa applicants steadily increased in the aggregate and in each of the preference categories. Moreover, the active demand for immigration was highly skewed, with the majority of applications coming from a dozen countries: Mexico, the Philippines, India, mainland China, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Jamaica, Hong Kong, and Pakistan. Most of these highly-backlogged countries displayed a significant increase in the growth rate of demand for immigration. The paper also shows a substantial cross-national variation in the active demand for immigration and explores its structural determinants. The regression results indicate that the level of economic development in sending countries and U.S. economic and cultural relations with sending countries play important roles in the determination process. Policy implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Life Course Changes in Smoking by Gender and Education: A Cohort Comparison Across France and the United States

Widening of educational disparities and a narrowing female advantage in mortality stem in good part from disparities in smoking. The changes in smoking and mortality disparities across cohorts and countries have been explained by an epidemic model of cigarette use but are also related to life course changes. To better describe and understand changing disparities over the life course, we compare age patterns of smoking in three cohorts and two nations (France and the US) using smoking history measures from the 2010 French health barometer (N = 20,940) and the 2010 US National Health Interview Survey Sample Adult File (N = 20,444). The results demonstrate statistically significant widening of gender and educational differences from adolescence to early and middle adulthood, thus accentuating the disparities already emerging during adolescence. In addition, the widening disparities over the life course have been changing across cohorts: age differences in educational disparities have grown in recent cohorts (especially in France), while age differences in gender disparities have narrowed. The findings highlight the multiple sources of inequality in smoking and health in high-income nations.     

The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach

Population Research and Policy Review - We study the aggregate gap between intended and actual fertility in 19 European countries and the US based on a cohort approach. This complements prior...     

Foreign-born professionals in the United States

This paper is an abridged version of a longer study by the same name published by the Center for Immigration Studies, 1815 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006.     

Delayed childbearing in the United States

This article analyzes the phenomenon of delayed childbearing in the United States. It begins by exploring problems associated with the definition and measurement of delayed childbearing. Existing empirical evidence of the phenomenon is reviewed and some new evidence is presented. A general theoretical framework for analyzing delayed childbearing is outlined and discussed in relation to existing theories. The article also provides a critical substantive and methodological review of evidence on the correlates and implications of delayed childbearing. Finally, public and private policy-related aspects of delayed childbearing are considered.     

Homicide trends in the United States

Unlike most other causes of death, homicide has been increasing in the United States, especially since the mid-1960s. Its impact is greatest among nonwhite men. The elimination of homicide would add approximately one and one-half years to their life span. This analysis examines trends and differentials using vital statistics data about homicide victims. A decomposition of components of change reveals that almost all of the rise in homicide mortality among nonwhites and a substantial fraction of the rise among whites results from the increasing use of firearms to kill people.     

Immigration data and national population estimates for the United States

The immigration component in national population estimates is comparatively small, but it is not insignificant and may indeed be an important source of error. Therefore, it warrants the considera-tion of those concerned with population estimates. The paper considers alternative methods for deriving estimates of immigration from the raw data and presents estimates of net immigration from 1950 to 1965. They are developed from estimates previously published by the Bureau of the Census, but they differ at some points where new data have become available or where a review of the data has led to a change in judgment on how best to use them. The paper also presents suggestions on how immigration statistics might be altered for purposes of improving the estimates.Census data may be used to estimate net immigration by three different methods, but upon analysis each method proves to be inadequate. Hence, data based on visas surrendered at the port of entry must be the principal source of immigration estimates. These data have their limitations because (1) they do not cover net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico, (2) they do not report departures of aliens, and (3) they do not allocate all immigrants to year of entry. Alien registration and passenger data offer possible alternative estimates.The paper attempts to measure unrecorded immigration, discusses how net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico may be estimated, and how the age, sex, and race of immigrants may be treated.     

The importance of international demographic research for the United States

International demographic research hasprovided many benefits for the U.S. This paperidentifies five main reasons for these benefits. First, cross-national research provides unique policyinsights that help the U.S. to develop more effectiveprograms and policies to address pressing andpersistent domestic challenges. Second, it helps theU.S. to understand and address problems and issues inmany countries or regions of the world that are ofparticular relevance to the U.S. because of theirstrategic or commercial importance to us. Third, ithelps the U.S. to address problems and issues that areglobal in nature and require international policyresponses. Fourth, it helps the U.S. to providehumanitarian aid to poor countries more effectivelyand efficiently. Finally, it contributes to theadvancement of science, which in turn stimulates andenriches research focusing on the U.S.     

Estimating Smoking-Attributable Mortality in the United States

Tobacco use is the largest single cause of premature death in the developed world. Two methods of estimating the number of deaths attributable to smoking use mortality from lung cancer as an indicator of the damage from smoking. We re-estimate the coefficients of one of these, the Preston/Glei/Wilmoth model, using recent data from U.S. states. We calculate smoking-attributable fractions for the 50 states and the United States as a whole in 2004, and estimate the contribution of smoking to the high adult mortality of the southern states. We estimate that 21% of deaths among men and 17% among women were attributable to smoking in 2004. Across states, attributable fractions range from 11% to 30% among men and from 7% to 23% among women. Smoking-related mortality also explains as much as 60% of the mortality disadvantage of southern states compared with other regions. At the national level, our estimates are in close agreement with those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Preston/Glei/Wilmoth, particularly for men, although we find greater variability by state than does CDC. We suggest that our coefficients are suitable for calculating smoking-attributable mortality in contexts with relatively mature epidemics of cigarette smoking.     

Forecasts of population in the United States

In this paper the author discusses the work of the Division of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which is concerned with forecasting populations. He traces the development of these activities and considers some of the actual forecasts that have been made.     

Nondrinker Mortality Risk in the United States

The literature has shown that people who do not drink alcohol are at greater risk for death than light to moderate drinkers, yet the reasons for this remain largely unexplained. We examine whether variation in people’s reasons for nondrinking explains the increased mortality. Our data come from the 1988–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File (N = 41,076 individuals age 21 and above, of whom 10,421 died over the follow-up period). The results indicate that nondrinkers include several different groups that have unique mortality risks. Among abstainers and light drinkers the risk of mortality is the same as light drinkers for a subgroup who report that they do not drink because of their family upbringing, and moral/religious reasons. In contrast, the risk of mortality is higher than light drinkers for former drinkers who cite health problems or who report problematic drinking behaviors. Our findings address a notable gap in the literature and may inform social policies to reduce or prevent alcohol abuse, increase health, and lengthen life.     

Multidimensional Racial Inequality in the United States

This paper measures racial inequalities in the US using a multidimensional ‘wellbeing’ approach that simultaneously considers the distributions of income, health and education. The primary objective is to examine trends in US wellbeing inequality with an emphasis on changes in racial composition. Data is taken from 1990 to 2007 and we observe increases in income inequality, a decline in education inequality and unchanged health inequality over the period. Taken together, these results show a slight increase in the dispersion in multidimensional wellbeing. Stratifying by racial groups shows that this increase is due to widening intra-racial inequalities while inter-racial differences remained unchanged. The method is also used to evaluate wellbeing across groups and we estimate black wellbeing to average around 76 % of whites, while persons from other races average approximately 93 %. Some other changes in composition occur through time and the results are shown to be robust to a number of changes in parametric weightings.     

Population activities of the United States government

The editor's comment in this issue of the journal cites 5 overlapping phases in the evolution of population and family planning programs in the United States. The phases are 1) collecting census data and vital statistics, 1790-, 2) family planning assistance to developing nations, 1963, 3) family planning assistance to the U.S. "disadvantaged," 1964-, 4) overpopulation as a national concern, 1969-, and 5) the multiple action phase, 197? (phase including diverse steps to limit population growth and occurring after basic attitudes toward human reproduction have changed). The issue of the journal focuses on total population size and rates of population increase rather than on the distribution of population, and on federal action rather than on the activities of state and local governments. The editor's comment is followed by an extensive discussion of population activities of the United States government, especially since 1963. Topics discussed include demographic data, international programs, research, federally subsidized family planning services, medical care programs, educational and international programs, national growth policy, and the roles of the legislative and executive branches of government. A directory listing federal agencies with substantial and identifiable programs concerned with population and family planning is appended.     

United States public policy and the elderly

Cross-sectional comparisons show that poverty among the aged in the United States has dropped dramatically over the last two decades. We use longitudinal data to identify economic events associated with unfavorable economic outcomes and to trace the influence of these events on women and men at different ages. We find that while social insurance programs appear to prevent severe financial hardship from the most frequent work-related events, they are far less effective in cushioning the economic impact of widowhood and divorce, especially for women. We suggest a number of policy changes that would provide some measure of social insurance against adverse family-related events.This paper was presented at the ISPE Conference on the Fiscal Implications of an Aging Population, Limburg, The Netherlands, May 30, 1990. The authors shared equally in writing the paper and are listed alphabetically. The paper was completed while R. V. Burkhauser was a fellow at The Netherlands Institute for Advanced Studies in the Humanities and Social Sciences. Deborah Laren provided superb research assistance.     

The United States at mid-decade

This report examines the demographic forces at work in the US that will influence the country's future. A profile of the US population in the mid-1990s reveals that the US is the third most populated countries in the world and one of the fastest growing of the industrialized countries. 70% of this growth is due to natural increase and 30% to immigration. The first topic covered in this report, geographic patterns of growth and change, includes a consideration of regional patterns, population growth by state, residential patterns, and the increase in the number of minorities living in suburban areas. The second topic is the changing age structure, which is characterized by an aging of the population and an increase in the number of children. Racial and ethnic diversity is discussed in terms of fastest growing groups, where minorities live, the Native American population, and the impact of this diversity on political participation. Immigration is analyzed to reveal sources and destinations, linguistic diversity, effects on schools and the labor market, and socioeconomic effects. The section on American families focuses on trends in marriage and divorce, types of households and families, and household patterns by race/ethnicity. The last topic looks at the distribution of income and poverty as well as at regional and state differences, race/ethnicity differences, the effects of marital status on income, who constitutes the poor, and how income is distributed. In conclusion, it is noted that America's social and economic future depends upon whether current demographic trends will lead to a fragmented and divisive society or to a stronger nation built upon diversity.