Developments and prospects for population statistics in countries of the former Soviet Union

"This paper examines recent developments and prospects for population statistics in the former Soviet Union, whose dissolution provides both opportunities and problems. It is important for scholars to be aware of past limitations of Soviet data, since the formation of independent states has neither removed bureaucratic impediments to the production of high-quality data, nor has it led to a population more ready to answer questions fully. Temporarily at least, there is a decrease in the amount and comparability of available information, and in some instances, in its quality. We begin with an overview of the system used to gather population statistics in the former Soviet Union and its inherent problems. We then discuss the challenges faced by the newly independent countries and the changes they need to make to achieve global comparability, including a shift toward the use of standard international definitions and away from political restrictions on data availability."     

Changing Life Expectancy and Health Expectancy Among Russian Adults: Results from the Past 20 Years

The decade following the collapse of the Soviet Union was characterized by wide fluctuations in Russian mortality rates, but since the early 2000s, life expectancy has improved progressively. Recent upturns in longevity have promoted policy debates over extending the retirement age in the country. However, whether observed gains in life expectancy are accompanied by improving health remains to be addressed. Using data from the 1994–2014 Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the Higher School of Economics, this study investigates trends over 20 years in healthy life expectancy (HLE) and illness-free life expectancy (IFLE) for men and women at adult ages. Analyses using the Sullivan method show that men and women at adult ages have experienced large increases in health expectancies during the post-Soviet period. Increases in HLE exceeded increases in total life expectancy for both genders. Further, health expectancies have evolved over time through cycles of increases and decreases, just like life expectancy. These results suggest increases in good-quality years among men and women at working ages, offering support for changing the official retirement age. The extent of the change in the retirement age, however, needs to be carefully considered, given that, despite recent improvements, the health expectancy of the Russian population still remains low.     

Rising Mortality in Hungary

Although Hungary is not alone in Eastern Europe in experiencing a rising death rate during recent years, this adverse development would seem to have progressed further there than in neighbouring socialist countries, with the possible exception of the Soviet Union. The Hungarian death rate has been rising since the mid-1960s in part because the population was ageing but, more significantly from the health point of view, because of a real increase in mortality among certain sections of the population. The age-specific death rates of males aged 15 and over were all higher in 1980 than in the mid-1960s, the increase being particularly marked for the age group 30–59; moreover, women aged 30–59 are also now beginning to display the same characteristic. In the paper the individual contributions of the various causes of death to these trends are examined and some of the factors that are thought to have enhanced the risk of dying are outlined.     

Work Disability Among Native-born and Foreign-born Americans: On Origins,Health, and Social Safety Nets

Public debates about both immigration policy and social safety net programs are increasingly contentious. However, little research has explored differences in health within America’s diverse population of foreign-born workers, and the effect of these workers on public benefit programs is not well understood. We investigate differences in work disability by nativity and origins and describe the mix of health problems associated with receiving Social Security Disability Insurance benefits. Our analysis draws on two large national data sources—the American Community Survey and comprehensive administrative records from the Social Security Administration—to determine the prevalence and incidence of work disability between 2001 and 2010. In sharp contrast to prior research, we find that foreign-born adults are substantially less likely than native-born Americans to report work disability, to be insured for work disability benefits, and to apply for those benefits. Overall and across origins, the foreign-born also have a lower incidence of disability benefit award. Persons from Africa, Northern Europe, Canada, and parts of Asia have the lowest work disability benefit prevalence rates among the foreign-born; persons from Southern Europe, Western Europe, the former Soviet Union, and the Caribbean have the highest rates.     

Community-Level Social Capital and Household Strategies for Coping with Global Crisis in Transitional Countries

This study examines the ways in which the fabric of community-level social capital has affected the ex-post strategies of households in dealing with the 2007–2008 crisis in the transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The data has been derived from nationally-representative surveys conducted in 28 transitional countries. The findings reveal that choices made with respect to survival strategies during the crisis were strongly dependent on community-level social capital. Higher levels of social capital within a community are associated with an increase in the utilization of active and safety net coping strategies. It was also found that most households were forced to employ depleting coping strategies, and that few households applied to safety net strategies.     

从人口结构变化看前苏联的现代化

透过人口结构的变化来观察和鉴别国家的现代化阶段或经济发展的程度,是文化学研究中最基本的方法之一。前苏联人口结构的变化证明,它的现代化要比西方国家落后一个阶段。由此,不仅可以证明前苏联外表强大内部虚弱的特征,也可以从一个侧面了解为什么一个世界性超级大国,转瞬之间便土崩瓦解的内部原因。     

The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

Individual Welfare in the Soviet Union

World Values Survey data, collectedJune-October 1990, are used to exploredeterminants of individual welfare in variousregions of the Soviet Union. Emphasis isplaced on the role of household income andperceived health status in determining thehappiness of an individual. Comparisons aremade across five Soviet regions and between theSoviet Union, the U.S., and West Germany. Thedata indicate similar patterns existedregarding welfare determinants though Sovietcitizens were relatively unhappy. There arealso differences between the two marketeconomies and the Soviet Union regarding theextent to which income influenced health andhappiness.     

Population change in the former Soviet Republics

Demographic trends in the former Soviet Republics and Russia are summarized and discussed in this publication. The former Soviet Republics in Europe as well as Georgia and Armenia had completed or almost completed their demographic transition before October 1991. Other Central Asian republics experienced reduced mortality, but, despite rapid declines, fertility is still above replacement level (at 3-4 children per woman). The economic and social dislocation of the breakup of the republics has hastened fertility decline. The annual population growth rate of the USSR in the mid-1980s was 0.9%; this rate declined to 0.4% in 1991, and the decline has continued. The 1991 population of the USSR was 289.1 million. Between 1989 and 1991, the crude birth rate was 18/1000 population, and the crude death rate was 10/1000. The net migration rate of -4/1000 helped to reduce growth. Total fertility in the USSR was 2.3 children in 1990. In Russia, fertility declined from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. The preferred family size in Russia was 1.9 in 1990 and 1.5 in 1993. This decline occurred due to lack of confidence in the economy and insufficient income. Only 19% of women used contraception in 1990. Marriages declined after 1990. Age pyramids were similar in the republics in that there was a narrowing in the proportion aged 45-49 years, and the male population aged over 65 years was diminished, due to the effect of World War II. The cohort of those aged 20-24 years in 1992 was very small due to the small parental birth cohort. The differences in the republics was characterized as broad-based in the younger ages because of high fertility. The number of childbearing women will remain large. Life expectancy has been 70 years since the 1950s and has declined in some republics due to substandard health care, lack of job safety measures, and alcoholism. Some republics experienced increased life expectancy, but, after 1991, mortality increased. Tajikistan had the highest infant mortality of 47/1000 live births in 1993. A demographic profile provided for each republic offers several population projection scenarios.     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

Abstract In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians. In essence, the life table function e(0) was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960. Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians.

In essence, the life table function e₀ was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960.

Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.     

Social Development Trends in Europe, 1970–1994: Development Prospects for the New Europe

The European region is undergoing dramatic social change. Among other regional and international forces, these changes are rooted in: the collapse of the former Soviet Union; the sudden appearance of a large number of “new” – mostly poor and politically unstable – European nations; and, the emergence of economic trading blocs in North America and Asia. At the same time, the majority of “established” European nations are experiencing sluggish rates of economic growth, moderate to high levels of inflation, high unemployment, escalating demands on public social services, and low fertility in combination with high rates of population aging and immigration from developing countries. Despite the seriousness of the dilemmas confronting the region, European development accomplishments of the past 25 years suggest that the region's leaders already possesses the resources required to solve its complex, social, political, and economic challenges.     

Mobility where mobility is illegal: internal migration and city growth in the Soviet Union

This paper examines an important anomaly in the internal migration history of the former Soviet Union (FSU). While many cities were closed in the sense of explicitly limiting growth of city population from migration, it was difficult to assess the effectiveness of these controls. We analyze a sample of 308 Soviet cities to isolate the impact of closure regulations controlling for city size. We find that while there are pervasive patterns of city growth, the rate increasing through the 1960s and declining thereafter, there are also pervasive differences between controlled and uncontrolled cities, the later growing significantly faster in almost all cases, controlling for city size. Received: 17 July 1997/Accepted: 16 March 1998     

Female status among soviet central Asian nationalities: The melding of Islam and Marxism and its implications for population increase

Summary Marxist ideology has emphasized the rights of women to a degree perhaps unparalleled among political movements, whereas Islamic ideology has confined women to the traditional role of wife and mother. In Soviet Central Asia these two ideologies have clashed for more than 50 years. Data from the 1959 and 1970 censuses of the U.S.S.R. are used to show three aspects of the position of Soviet women of Islamic nationality as compared with the position of Soviet women of non-Islamic nationality, namely, educational attainment relative to men, non-agricultural labour force participation relative to men, and the burden of child dependency. The hypothesis is put forward that the status of women among Soviet Islamic nationalities should be lower than among Soviet non-Islamic nationalities, but that the difference between the two groups in the various aspects of female status should diminish over time. The position of women among the Soviet Islamic nationalities was also compared with that of women in various Islamic nations with the hypothesis that female status should be higher among the former than the latter. The predictions were upheld, with the notable exception of two of the three pedictions concerning the burden of child dependency occasioned by the finding that child dependency increased substantially, from 1959 to 1970 for Islamic nationalities but not for non-Islamic, and by 1970 was higher for Soviet Islamic nationalities than for the Islamic nations of the Middle East and North Africa. Several possible explanations are advanced for the above-mentioned unpredicted findings.     

俄罗斯人口贫困化与人口危机

苏联解体后,俄罗斯实行激进改革,经济持续6年下滑,人民生活水平急剧下降,已有1/3的人口生活在贫困线以下。经济生活的贫困,加剧了生育观念的变化,拒绝生育或减少生育的趋势增加。俄罗斯已进入世界上生育最低的十个国家的行列。贫困化加剧了人口危机,人口危机又加剧了俄罗斯的发展危机。要真正解决人口危机问题,首先要解决好经济发展问题。     

Socio-Economic Disparities in the Development of the Romania’s Border Areas

The Romanian border areas include 898 Local Administrative Units 2 (LAU2), of which 88 are urban and 810 rural. Romania has borderline with the following countries: Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine, Hungary, of which 63.5 % is Non-European Union boundary. According to the population structure, 51.6 % of the total population is urban and the rest of 48.4 % is rural. In order to assess the socio-economic territorial disparities in the development of the urban space of Romanian border areas, several research stages were carried out: selecting 22 relevant statistical indicators, analyzing territorial disparities, standardizing the absolute values of the indicators, grouping the elementary indicators by 7 multiple indicator clusters (secondary indexes) in order to reflect the main socio-economic development aspects: (1) housing, (2) public utilities infrastructure and green areas, (3) health, (4) labour market, (5) demography, (6) education and (7) local economy. Finally, the authors were able to compute secondary indexes and the Index of Socio-Economic Development as Hull Score with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 14, revealing the levels of socio-economic development (high, average and low). Generally, the outcomes of the current study are in line with Romania’s complex socio-economic disparities, rooted in the historic background of the country. Spatially, the economic development follows a West–East direction, the less developed areas being concentrated in the Eastern and Southern part of the country.     

Vocational Status,Hukou and Housing Migrants in the New Century: Evidence from a Multi-city Study of Housing Inequality

In the 1960s and 1970s, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union experienced an unanticipated stagnation in the process of mortality reduction that was accelerating in the west. This was followed by even starker fluctuations and overall declines in life expectancy during the 1980s and 1990s. We identify statistically the extent to which, since the 1990s, the countries of the post-communist region have converged as a group towards other regional or cross-regional geopolitical blocks, or whether there are now multiple steady-states (‘convergence clubs’) emerging among these countries. We apply a complex convergence club methodology, including a recursive analysis, to data on 30 OECD countries (including 11 post-communist countries) drawn from the Human Mortality Database and spanning the period 1959–2010. We find that, rather than converging uniformly on western life expectancy levels, the post-communist countries have diverged into multiple clubs, with the lowest seemingly stuck in low-level equilibria, while the best performers (e.g. Czech Republic) show signs of catching-up with the leading OECD countries. As the post-communist period has progressed, the group of transition countries themselves has become more heterogeneous and it is noticeable that distinctive gender and age patterns have emerged. We are the first to employ an empirical convergence club methodology to help understand the complex long-run patterns of life expectancy within the post-communist region, one of very few papers to situate such an analysis in the context of the OECD countries, and one of relatively few to interpret the dynamics over the long-term.     

African population in history]

The growth rate of the African population has been fluctuating throughout history, affected by political, social, and economic events. 6000 years ago, the majority of the population was based in North Africa, because farming had been developed there. However, between the 11th and the 16th centuries, there was a constant decline in the population of that region, due to invasions from Europe and the black plague. During the same period, the population in the area south of the Sahara grew rapidly, as people there had gone into the iron tool period and farming had been developed. From the 16th to the mid-17th Century, population growth was considerable in Africa; more people had learned the technology of irrigation, corn and potatoes had been introduced from South America, and colonialism was not yet an issue. From the mid-17th to the mid-19th Century, there was no growth, due to the slave trade and wars between tribes. One estimate sets the direct and indirect loss during this period, as a result of the slave trade, at 100 million people. From the 1850s to the end of World War I, population growth started up again, chiefly influenced by the fact that the slave trade had essentially come to a half and modern medical care had become available on the continent. However, in central Africa, the region which suffered the worst blow from the slave trade, growth was very slow, while in East Africa the population was declining because of wars between colonists and natives, as well as natural disasters. Increases in population during this period were a result of immigration from Europe and India. From the end of World War I to the present, growth has been rapid, given improvements in medical services and standards of living, while most of the former colonies became independent after the 1950s. Consequently, almost all African countries are under great pressure now with regard to their populations.