Temporal discounting of gains and losses of time: An experimental investigation

This paper investigates “asymmetries” between non-monetary gains and losses in intertemporal choice. We considered gains and losses of spare/working time with respect to a reference duration defined in a working contract. Specifically, we elicited a behavioral model of intertemporal choice that accounts for a gain/loss-dependent discounting function and a reference-dependent utility. Additionally, we did not impose preference for the present (positive discounting) and allowed for both decreasing and increasing impatience. While our results are standard regarding the discount of money (our baseline treatment), our subjects heavily discounted gains of time. More patience was observed for losses of time and a sizable portion of subjects even exhibited negative discounting, i.e. they preferred to expedite losses of time. Our econometric estimations also reveal a much larger heterogeneity of behavior in terms of both utility and discounting for gains and losses of spare time as compared to money.     

Adult women and ADHD: On the temporal dimensions of ADHD identities

This paper uses conceptual resources drawn from psychosocial process thinking (Brown & Reavey, 2015; Brown & Stenner, 2009; Stenner, 2017) and from G.H. Mead in particular, to contribute to an emerging body of work on the experiences of adult women with ADHD (Horton‐Salway & Davies, 2018; Quinn & Madhoo, 2014; Singh, 2002; Waite & Ivey, 2009). It has a particular focus on how ADHD features in the construction of women's identities and life‐stories and it draws upon findings from a qualitative investigation of adult women diagnosed or self‐diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). A theoretically informed ‘thematic decomposition’ of 16 depth interviews reveals how complex processes of identity transformation are mediated by the social category of ADHD. Through this process, troubled pasts are reconstructed from the perspective of an ‘emergent’ identity that offers participants the potential for a more enabling and positive future.     

Viewing the future through a warped lens: Why uncertainty generates hyperbolic discounting

A large body of experimental research has demonstrated that, on average, people violate the axioms of expected utility theory as well as of discounted utility theory. In particular, aggregate behavior is best characterized by probability distortions and hyperbolic discounting. But is it the same people who are prone to these behaviors? Based on an experiment with salient monetary incentives we demonstrate that there is a strong and significant relationship between greater departures from linear probability weighting and the degree of decreasing discount rates at the level of individual behavior. We argue that this relationship can be rationalized by the uncertainty inherent in any future event, linking discounting behavior directly to risk preferences. Consequently, decreasing discount rates may be generated by people’s proneness to probability distortions.     

Justification of functional form assumptions in structural models: applications and testing of qualitative measurement axioms

In both theoretical and applied modeling in behavioral sciences, it is common to choose a mathematical specification of functional form and distribution of unobservables on grounds of analytic convenience without support from explicit theoretical postulates. This article discusses the issue of deriving particular qualitative hypotheses about functional form restrictions in structural models from intuitive theoretical axioms. In particular, we focus on a family of postulates known as dimensional invariance. Subsequently, we discuss how specific qualitative postulates can be reformulated so as to allow for conventional statistical hypothesis testing, and we also derive details of a particular likelihood ratio test procedure. An empirical application of the testing procedure is carried out, based on data from a Stated Preference survey.     

Partial vs. general equilibrium analysis and choice of functional form: Implications for policy modeling

In formulating empirically tractable, economywide models, researchers are often forced to employ “convenient” functional forms. These forms embody restrictive maintained hypotheses. Alternatively, flexible functional forms may be utilized in a partial equilibrium setting. Estimation and incorporation of flexible functions into computable general equilibrium models is considerably more demanding of research resources. Assuming that shortcuts will continue to be necessary for researchers attempting to respond to current policy problems, this paper compares these two alternatives. Specifically, a general equilibrium model for New York State is employed to evaluate the relative performances of flexible partial equilibrium models and their more restrictive, general equilibrium counterpart. In the particular application considered, the former approach is found to dominate the latter.     

A test of the characteristic function and the Harsanyi function in N-person normal form sidepayment games

This paper reports the results of a laboratory experiment investigating sidepayment games represented in normal form. Attempts to predict payoff allocations via the application of solution concepts (such as the Shapley value or the nucleolus) encounter a problem in games of this form, because the game must first be transformed into some other form. Commonly, this other form is a set function defined over coalitions, such as the von Neumann-Morgenstern characteristic function. Because there are numerous possible transformations, the question arises as to which one provides the most accurate basis for prediction of payoffs.The laboratory experiment tested three such transformations - the mixed strategy characteristic function, the pure strategy characteristic function, and the Harsanyi threat function. Payoff predictions from two solution concepts (Shapley value, nucleolus) were computed on the basis of each of these transformations, making a total of six theories under test.Results of the study show, in general, that payoff predictions based on the Harsanyi threat function and on the mixed strategy characteristic function were more accurate than those based on the pure strategy characteristic function. The most accurate theories were the Shapley value computed from the Harsanyi function, the nucleolus computed from the Harsanyi function, and the Shapley value computed from the mixed strategy characteristic function. Less accurate were the nucleolus computed from the mixed strategy characteristic function and both the nucleolus and the Shapley value computed from the pure strategy characteristic function.This research was supported by grants SOC-7726932 and SES-8319322 from the National Science Foundation. The authors express appreciation to Yat-Tuck See, Jyh-Jen Horng Shiau, and Raymond Wong for assistance in computer programming, and to Jennifer Brandt, Young C. Choi, David C. Dettman, Laurel Dettman, Stephen B. Geisheker, Irving J. Ginsberg, Mike P. Griffin, Kimberly Ihm, Todd Isaacson, Christy Kinney, Mary Kohl, Sue Pope, Tammy Schmieden, Jill Schwarze, Susan Winter, and Kenneth Yuen for assistance in data collection and analysis.     

A simple framework for the axiomatization of exponential and quasi-hyperbolic discounting

The main goal of this paper is to investigate which normative requirements, or axioms, lead to exponential and quasi-hyperbolic forms of discounting. Exponential discounting has a well-established axiomatic foundation originally developed by Koopmans (Econometrica 28(2):287–309, 1960, 1972) and Koopmans et al. (Econometrica 32(1/2):82–100, 1964) with subsequent contributions by several other authors, including Bleichrodt et al. (J Math Psychol 52(6):341–347, 2008). The papers by Hayashi (J Econ Theory 112(2):343–352, 2003) and Olea and Strzalecki (Q J Econ 129(3):1449–1499, 2014) axiomatize quasi-hyperbolic discounting. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an alternative foundation for exponential and quasi-hyperbolic discounting, with simple, transparent axioms and relatively straightforward proofs. Using techniques by Fishburn (The foundations of expected utility. Reidel Publishing Co, Dordrecht, 1982) and Harvey (Manag Sci 32(9):1123–1139, 1986), we show that Anscombe and Aumann’s (Ann Math Stat 34(1):199–205, 1963) version of Subjective Expected Utility theory can be readily adapted to axiomatize the aforementioned types of discounting, in both finite and infinite horizon settings.     

An empirical test of ordinal independence

In this article, we test Green and Jullien's (1988) Ordinal Independence (OI) Axiom, an axiom necessary for any rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) model, including Cumulative Prospect Theory (Tversky and Kahneman, 1992). We observe systematic violations of OI (some within-subject violation rates of over 50%). These patterns of choice cannot be explained by any RDEU theory alone. We suggest that subjects are employing an editing operation prior to evaluation: if an outcome-probability pair is common to both gambles, it is cancelled when the commonality is transparent; otherwise, it is not cancelled. We interpret the results with respect to both original and cumulative prospect theory and the known empirical properties of the weighting function.     

Choices at various levels of uncertainty: An experimental test of the restated diversification theorem

Our “Restated diversification theorem” (Skogh and Wu, 2005) says that risk-averse agents may pool risks efficiently without assignment of subjective probabilities to outcomes, also at genuine uncertainty. It suffices that the agents presume that they face equal risks. Here, the theorem is tested in an experiment where the probability of loss, and the information about this probability, varies. The result supports our theorem. Moreover, it tentatively supports an evolutionary theory of the insurance industry—starting with mutual pooling at uncertainty, turning into insurance priced ex ante when actuarial information is available.     

An experimental test of the predictive power of dynamic ambiguity models

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - In this paper we report results from an economic experiment where we investigate the predictive performance of dynamic ambiguity models in the gains domain....     

An experimental test of several generalized utility theories

There is much evidence that people willingly violate expected utility theory when making choices. Several axiomatic theories have been proposed to explain some of this evidence, but there are few data that discriminate between the theories. To gather such data, an experiment was conducted using pairs of gambles with three levels of outcomes and many combinations of probabilities. Most typical findings were replicated, including the common consequence effect and different risk attitudes for gains and losses. There is evidence of both fanning out and fanning in of indifference curves, and both quasiconcavity and quasiconvexity of preferences. No theory can explain all the data, but prospect theory and the hypothesis that indifference curves fan out can explain most of them.The Wharton School,University of Pennsylvania     

Asymmetric or symmetric time preference and discounting in many facets of economic theory: A miscellany

Factual accounts of how different people actually do discount future events and do over-estimate and under estimate the likelihood of future gains and losses are seen to vary with time and place. Lifetime distributions of wealth and income correlate with choices by those who live mostly for the present and against those who think now about differential future outputs. Rates of time discount and degree of optimism (rational vs. irrational) are seen to overlap ambiguously. Each “behaviorist” pattern can be matched by its reversed pattern.     

日本文化论:解析与重构

"日本文化论"是个经久不衰的热门话题。中外学者提出过各种学说和假设:有人注重其固有传统而认为属于"东方文化",有人着眼于西化层面而主张属于"西方文化";有些学者强调其"模仿"特色,有些学者渲染其"独创"倾向;加藤周一倡导"杂种文化"学说,石田一良提出"变形玩偶"假设。作者对上述各领风骚的论说逐一解析,在此基础上渐次展呈"组装文化"、"嫁接文化"的构想。最后以"书籍之路"为视点重构"日本文化论",指出日本通过从中国输入书籍培植东方传统文化基因,由此创造文化的机制既非模仿也非独创,作者名之为"再生文化"。     

熟人社会：村庄秩序机制的理想型探究

熟人社会中的“人情”体现为感情、关系、规范和机制等层面。在人情的作用下,熟人社会成了一张微观权力关系网,因此也被整合为对内纷争较少、对外团结一致的亲密社群。在熟人社会中,人们的行为围绕着人情关系展开,行为准则是人情规范,这种人情取向的行动规律就是“乡土逻辑”。因此,“乡土逻辑”可以用来分析当前村庄秩序的变迁。     

Experimental evidence on the effect of incentives and domain in risk aversion and discounting tasks

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Environmental policy evaluation is often criticised for employing discount rates that have little grounding in research. Yet, experimental research aimed at...     

关于大学新生焦虑心理调查

大学新生们在大学生活伊始就面临着诸如学习不得要领、各种活动盲目参与、人际关系紧张等心理上的问题,产生了焦虑感。面对这一问题,我们课题组对国家某重点高校的2007级新生做了抽样访谈,从焦虑感的表现、原因以及解决方法上入手,作了详细的分析。