Development of birth registration and birth statistics in the United States

The registration of vital events in the United States has always been under the authority of State and local areas. The preparation of national birth statistics has been made possible through a co-operative working arrangement between the Federal Government and the States. This paper traces the development of registration systems in the United States from colonial days to the present period. The absence of adequate registration systems throughout the country, during the nineteenth century, led to the use of data collected in the decennial population censuses of 1850–1900 for estimating birth rates. This procedure was abandoned because of the unreliability of the results. Steps leading to the formation of the national birth-registration area in 1915, when it included ten States and the District of Columbia, and. activities resulting in its completion in 1933 are discussed.

A major portion of the paper outlines the nation-wide test of birth-registration completeness conducted in 1940 in conjunction with the decennial census of population. Important results of the test are presented, and the methodology is explained. A similar test is being carried out in 1950. Data derived will be used to focus attention on local areas requiring registration promotion. Correction factors for statistical series based on registered events will also be obtained. The final section of the paper indicates the steps States are taking to improve quality of reporting on the birth record. Changes in the content of the standard certificate of live birth since 1915 are summarized and the statistics tabulated from birth certificates detailed.     

The world's biggest census

The purpose of the 3rd national population census, taken 18 years after "New China's" 2nd census, was to ascertain accurate population figures for China and the spatial population distribution in order to carry out socialist modernization, improve the people's material and cultural lives, and draw up a population policy and program in light of China's actual conditions. The census questionnaire contained 19 items, including 13 for individuals; and 6 items about the household. Preparations for the census began at the end of 1979 even though the census would not begin until July 1, 1982. The preparatory stage included: drafting the Census Statute; conducting pilot censuses in certain areas; rectifying household registration; installing computers; training computer technicians; convening national census work conference and similar conferences at various levels; selecting and training field census workers; printing census forms; and conducting widespread publicity. Pilot censuses were conducted at central, provincial, and county levels in order to draw useful experience for the nationwide census. A large number of census workers were selected and trained. Among them were about a million staff members working in census offices at various levels, 1000 computer technical personnel, 4000 data entry personnel, 100,000 coders, and 1 million census supervisors. 8 million cadres and volunteers at the grassroots actively helped conduct the census. Enumeration and verification was completed between July 1 and July 15, 1982. The postenumeration check on a sample basis showed only a net overcount of 0.15/1000 with an overcount of 0.71/1000 and an undercount of 0.56/1000. All levels of the government, the Communist Party, Trade Unions, and Women's Federations were mobilized to take part in the census, and all mass media were utilized. All census information will be finally tabulated by computers before the end of 1984, and census reports will be compiled and submitted to the State Council for examination before they are published.     

Estimation of vital rates for Ghana

Abstract A complete and efficient registration system, of the type which would provide good data on births and deaths, does not exist in Ghana. However, registration of vital events is supposed to be compulsory in 39 towns in the country but the data collected in these areas are too inadequate and defective to provide a sound basis for the analysis of the dynamics of population growth. The results of the censuses conducted by the colonial governments are so defective and unreliable that they do not allow scientific research in the field of population analysis. Before 1960, therefore, when the national census and the post-enumeration survey (based on a 5% sample of the population) were carried out, estimates of fertility and mortality levels were little more than guesses. In this study an attempt has been made to utilize the information on the age-sex composition provided by the 1960 census and post-enumeration survey data on births and deaths to determine, as far as possible, the levels of fertility and mortality and the rates of population growth in Ghana. The fertility estimates-i.e. a crude birth rate of 50, total fertility rate of 6.9 and a gross reproduction rate of 3.4-show that Ghana's fertility is one of the highest in the world. An expectation of life at birth of 40 years, an infant mortality of 160 and a crude death rate of 23 appear to be the most plausible estimates. These estimates yield a rate of natural increase of 2.7% and a growth rate of 3.0% per annum.     

On the role played by household registration materials in China's 1982 population census]

The author examines the relationship between the 1982 census and the population registration system in China. Because the household registration data are so complete (they include data on permanent and temporary residence, births, deaths, and migration), they were used as a starting point for census taking. In order for the census to take advantage of household registrations, the registration data were reviewed and corrected. This both reduced the cost of taking the census and improved the quality of the registration data.     

The cocos-keeling islands: A demographic laboratory

The Cocos Islands, which are situated in the Indian Ocean approximately halfway between Colombo and Fremantle, were first peopled early in the nineteenth century and were gradually developed as a very isolated coconut plantation with a labour force consisting partly of persons of Malay stock descended from the original group of settlers and partly of Bantamese contract labourers from Java. As the Cocos-born population increased in size, the dependence on contract labour decreased and, before the end of the century, all immigration ceased. The 1947 Malay population of the islands was about 1,800.

The islands are fascinating from a demographer's point of view because there was a virtually complete registration of live births, deaths and marriages and a partial registration of stillbirths. With these registration records it was possible to construct the life history of every individual from birth, through infancy and childhood to marriage, and thence through fatherhood or motherhood to death.

The picture revealed by an analysis of these records is that of a population with very high fertility and with mortality at a high level before the first World war and at a medium level after that war. Crude birth rates varied between 50 and 60 per thousand population during the period 1888 to 1947. Crude death rates were between 30 and 40 per thousand population until 1912 but under 2.0 per thousand population after 1918.

Most Cocos girls married before reaching the age of 20 and there were an average of between eight and nine live births per woman living through the childbearing period. There was a steady decline in the average number of live births with advancing age at marriage from age 16 onwards. A significantly high proportion of those dying in the middle of the childbearing period had never married, but the fertility of those marrying at an early age (14, 15 and 16) and dying before reaching the age of 36 was slightly higher than that of those who married at a similar age and survived. Women who survived to the age of 55 were of higher fertility than those who died between the ages of 40 and 55. An analysis of birth intervals revealed significant differences (a) between birth intervals after a stillbirth or after a live birth in which the child died in early infancy, and birth intervals after a live birth in which the offspring survived for longer than 0.4 years, and (b) between the interval from first to second birth and the subsequent birth intervals. There was a difference of almost exactly a year between the average birth interval after a stillbirth or live birth ending in a neo-natal death and the average birth interval after the birth of a child surviving to age 2; there was a similar difference of a year between corresponding median birth intervals.

From 1888 to 1912 infant mortality was well above 300 per thousand. After 1918 infant mortality averaged rather under 100 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. The reduction in infant mortality rates was accompanied by an increase in the mortality of children aged 1 to 4, and the heavy incidence of mortality at these ages after 1918 is the most striking feature of the analysis of mortality by age. Whilst mortality in infancy fell much more heavily on males than on females, early childhood mortality was much higher in Cocos for girls than for boys. The life table computed for the period 1918 to 1947 indicated a life expectancy of about 50 years for males and 47 years for females.     

The main contents and characteristics of the third national population census]

The Chinese State Council publicized rules and regulations for the 3rd national population census on February 19, 1982. In 28 chapters, this document outlined the leadership organization, target of the census, time and space of the census, performance evaluation, and the transaction and publication of the data collected. 1 special feature of this census is the connection between the need for current modernized construction and possible conditions available. Altogether there are 19 items in this census, while the last census had only 9 items. Among the newly added items are: 1) those concerning economic characteristics, 2) those on population growth, and 3) those on the household condition of the constant population. Another special feature of the 3rd national population census is the combination of China's own working experience in population and that of foreign countries. In the skills of modernized calculation, new experience from foreign countries has been fully utilized. The scientific method has been used to design the census form, a sample examination, the coding of collected data, and data registration through the use of computers. The 3rd national population census has been successful for 3 main reasons: 1) extensive support from the general public, 2) strict organization and hard work, and 3) modernized computers used in calculation.     

A census of one billion people (summary)]

The national census which was conducted in 1982 has provided reliable population data for formulating policies and plans in China's modernization process. A great deal of experience has been acquired from this census. (1) The census was based upon China's practical situation and a unique system of methods suitable to China's situation was used. (2) Census workers have found appropriate methods through practical experience and also learned the skill of using computers in handling census data. (3) The general public was very cooperative and worked closely with the leadership and professional cadres. (4) Measures were taken to ensure the quantity and quality of the census work so that the goal of promoting the data's quantity and quality could be reached. (5) The spirit of patriotism was developed, and the people realized that the national census is a necessary measure to be taken for China's construction and modernization. The work of the 1982 national census was successful. The unfinished work which lies ahead is still very heavy. The census should keep on learning from the successful experience of foreign countries and try to overcome difficulties so that the work on China's population statistics may be pushed forward.     

上海市人户分离状况的空间特征分析——基于“六普”数据

＂六普＂数据显示,近几年上海市人户分离状况呈现出新的空间特征,主要表现在：人户分离人口的规模和迁移率在空间分布上呈现出严重的不均衡;大部分区县人户分离人口的来源地及迁居目的地集中化程度高,具有＂近邻优先＂的特点;逐步形成由中心城区县流向近郊区区县和中心城区县之间相互流动的两大迁移圈;中心城核心区、边缘区、近郊区、远郊区等四大区域之间的人户分离人口流动呈现出三大迁居主流。本文在总结这些空间特征的同时,就如何解决上海市人户分离问题提出了几点建议,以期上海市内户籍人口的迁移能科学健康有序进行。     

Estimation of demographic measures for India, 1881-1961, based on census age distributions

Abstract India is one of the very few developing countries which have a relatively long history of population censuses. The first census was taken in 1872, the second in 1881 and since then there has been a census every ten years, the latest in 1971. Yet the registration of births and deaths in India, even at the present time, is too inadequate to be of much help in estimating fertility and mortality conditions in the country. From time to time Indian census actuaries have indirectly constructed life tables by comparing one census age distribution with the preceding one. Official life tables are available for all the decades from 1872-1881 to 1951-1961, except for 1911-1921 and 1931-1941. Kingsley Davis(1) filled in the gap by constructing life tables for the latter two decades. He also estimated the birth and death rates ofIndia for the decades from 1881-1891 to 1931-1941. Estimates of these rates for the following two decades, 1941-1951 and 1951-1961, were made by Indian census actuaries. The birth rates of Davis and the Indian actuaries were obtained basically by the reverse survival method from the age distribution and the computed life table of the population. Coale and Hoover(2), however, estimated the birth and death rates and the life table of the Indian population in 1951 by applying stable population theory. The most recent estimates of the birth rate and death rate for 1963-1964 are based on the results of the National Sample Survey. All these estimates are presented in summary form in Table 1.     

Recent Trends in Coverage of the Mexican-Born Population of the United States: Results From Applying Multiple Methods Across Time

The accuracy of counts of U.S. racial/ethnic and immigrant groups depends on the coverage of the foreign-born in official data. Because Mexicans constitute by far the largest single national-origin group among the foreign-born in the United States, we compile new evidence about the coverage of the Mexican-born population in the 2000 census and 2001–2010 American Community Survey (ACS) using three techniques: a death registration, a birth registration, and a net migration method. For the late 1990s and first half of the 2000–2010 decade, results indicate that coverage error was somewhat higher than currently assumed but had substantially declined by the latter half of the 2000–2010 decade. Additionally, we find evidence that U.S. census and ACS data miss substantial numbers of children of Mexican immigrants, as well as people who are most likely to be unauthorized: namely, working-aged Mexican immigrants (ages 15–64), especially males. The findings highlight the heterogeneity of the Mexican foreign-born population and the ways in which migration dynamics may affect population coverage.     

Revising Infant Mortality Rates for the Early Twentieth Century United States

Accurate vital statistics are required to understand the evolution of racial disparities in infant health and the causes of rapid secular decline in infant mortality during the early twentieth century. Unfortunately, U.S. infant mortality rates prior to 1950 suffer from an upward bias stemming from a severe underregistration of births. At one extreme, African American births in southern states went unregistered at the rate of 15 % to 25 %. In this study, we construct improved estimates of births and infant mortality in the United States for 1915–1940 using recently released complete count decennial census microdata combined with the counts of infant deaths from published sources. We check the veracity of our estimates with a major birth registration study completed in conjunction with the 1940 decennial census and find that the largest adjustments occur in states with less-complete birth registration systems. An additional advantage of our census-based estimation method is the extension backward of the birth and infant mortality series for years prior to published estimates of registered births, enabling previously impossible comparisons and estimations. Finally, we show that underregistration can bias effect estimates even in a panel setting with specifications that include location fixed effects and place-specific linear time trends.     

人口普查工作新平台：人口地理信息系统

本文在回顾我国人口普查传统方法技术基础上 ,分析了新形势下国内外人口普查技术新进展 ,并指出人口地理信息系统的建设是我国人口普查新工作平台。本文探讨了人口地理信息系统基本功能和系统结构 ,并从五个方面详细分析人口地理信息系统如何辅助人口普查工作 :普查登记阶段 ,GIS技术可以辅助划分普查区域 ,绘制出普查地图和调查小区地图 ,提高速度和准确性 ,确保地域上的不重不漏 ;利用人口GIS ,可以充分发挥基本单位名录库在普查中的重要作用 ;利用人口GIS ,可以拓宽抽样调查和专项调查应用领域 ;利用调查小区空间不变性 ,可以统一普查资料空间基准 ,极大的拓宽普查资料应用范围 ;利用人口GIS ,可以加深人口普查数据的开发利用。未来十年内 ,将会有更多的区域建设各等级人口专题地理信息系统。     

An Orsett census enumerator

Given the wide use of Victorian census enumerators' books (CEBs), it is surprising that so little is known about the background and ability of the enumerators who compiled them. For the most part they are anonymous persons with difficult handwriting and strange spelling. One such enumerator was the current author's grandfather, William Woollings of Orsett, Essex, who compiled the censuses of 1851, 1861 and 1871 for one of the enumeration districts in the parish in which he lived. This article examines his qualifications for the task of census enumerator and attempts to find if his knowledge of and social standing in the local community affected the way in which he completed the census returns. Secondly, by comparing the three censuses that he compiled an overall assessment is made of the accuracy of his returns in the light of the difficulties that he experienced, and the improvements that were made over time.     

Characteristics of age composition of China's population]

The age composition of Chinese population is analyzed via data collected in the 1982 census, which has been the basis for planning the social and economic life of 1 billion people. The census reflected complete population age composition, by birth, mortality and growth rates, from the time of the Liberation in 1949. The 10% sample, based on the national age composition, did not include the 4,240,000 people in military service which, as .42% of the total population, did not constitute a large differential. The population has grown rapidly since 1949. A few years before and after 1960, growth was reduced due to economic conditions, but the overall growth trend remained unchanged. The census showed that since 1970, growth has experienced a downturn, but the decrease was not related to the sudden drop before and after 1960. The census also showed China's population had changed from 1964's primarily young population to an adult population, but the process of population aging is only beginning, with a still relatively young population. China's population is not a stable one. This increase and decrease were greatly influenced by the changes in social and economic conditions. The disparity in age composition caused by these changes has created problems in social life, education, employment, marriage, housing, health, transportation, and cultural facilities. There are large differences in age composition between regions and ethnic groups. The decreases in birth and growth rate of the eastern coastal provinces were more rapid than those of the southwest and northwest regions. The age composition of minority nationalities is considerably younger than the Han people. Factors that influenced age composition characteristics included reduction of the neonatal mortality rate, the rises and falls of economic development, and the work in planned fertility.     

重新审视中国人口“未富先老”的命题

“未富先老”得到普遍认同。“未富先老”是在1982年人口普查资料发布后提出的命题,旨在向全社会提出中国生育率迅速下降,人口老龄化趋势加速,必须对人口老龄化做好思想、理论、舆论准备,物质准备,制度准备,人才准备和健康准备等,居安思危,有备才能无患。在上世纪把中国人口概括为“未富先老”是被普遍接受的,所讲的“老”是指人口老龄化。     

Characteristics of the statute of China's population census in 1982]

China's 1982 census is described. The purpose was to contribute to the modernization of socialism. It was based on current conditions in China and conducted under government supervision using the international experience of the US, Canada, the Philippines, and Japan and with UN assistance for census sampling methods and computer data processing techniques. The census was taken with a strong emphasis on procedural quality control. Its target was Chinese citizens living in China and its territories; each individual was to be registered in his own domicile. The 1982 census listed 19 category items, over twice as many as the 1953 and 1964 censuses. Added to the basic information items of name, relationship to head of household, sex, age, ethnic origin, and education, were new items including employment, marital status, total number of births, number of children still living, and number of births, deaths and age at death in the previous year. The new categories instituted progressive approaches such as recording children of unwed mothers; and in education, recognizing experience level of older workers having little formal education but considerable practical expertise, including temporary employees in employment categories. Major difficulties were encountered in the data collection process: wide differences in education level among residents of the various geographical locations; registration of permanent residents using the household registration; registration of the transient population and people living on boats; determining employment classifications; and rendering the data suitable for data processing. However, the census was performed scientifically; census-takers interviewed each family and individual, and data was meticulously collected, calculated, and processed twice.     

Estimating the completeness of death registration

Summary Death registration statistics, even when incomplete, can provide valuable information about mortality. In particular, the age structure of deaths can be used to estimate the completeness of registration, provided that this completeness does not vary substantially with age. Two methods of estimating the completeness of death registration from the distribution of deaths by age are described. The first is derived from stable population theory and requires an estimate of the rate of natural increase of the population, as well as assuming stability. However, the technique can also be used to generate simultaneously estimates of the rate of natural increase and of death registration completeness. The second method which requires two census age distributions and intercensal deaths by age, estimates the relative enumeration completeness of the two censuses as well as the completeness of death registration and requires only that the population be closed. Results are sensitive to overstatement of age. The methods are illustrated by being applied to figures from Thailand for the period 1960-70 and are found to work satisfactorily.     

Revision of Ladino and Maya census populations of Guatemala, 1950 and 1964

This article examines the Guatemalan census enumeration for 1950 and 1964 and the vital registration from 1945 to 1969. The examination reveals an inconsistency in the ethnic reporting of Ladino and Maya between the two systems. The evidence indicates census misclassification of the Maya population. An adjustment procedure is presented to revise the Ladino and Mayan populations for the two census years.     

Estimating census and death registration completeness

This article presents a new method for estimating the relative completeness of 2 census enumerations and of intercensal registered deaths. The Growth Balance Equation was developed by Brass (1975) to estimate the completeness of death registration relative to the completeness of census enumeration. The method presented here can be seen either as an extension of Martin's formulation to allow explicitly for changes in census coverage or as a modification of Brass's method to use deaths by age group rather than deaths by cohort, preferable on the grounds that age group comparisons will be less distorted by age misreporting than cohort comparisons if the patterns of age misreporting are similar for 2 successive censuses. This simple method estimates simultaneously the relative coverage of the 2 censuses and the completeness of registration of intercensal deaths. The key assumptions of the method are that the population is closed to migration and that all the coverage factors involved are invariant with age, at least for the age range studied. Analysis of the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and further work on extending the method to open populations would be useful.     

Fertility survey in the rural area of Henan province]

The population of Henan Province is 72,850,000, 92% of whom live in villages. From July 12 to August 11, 1981, a fertility survey was taken of 20 communes and 31 work brigades in the counties of Fugou, Shancai, and Dengfeng, in which 38,168 people and 5700 fertility registration forms were studied. In 1980, 15% of the 3 counties' population were women aged 18-49, 80% of whom were married. The birth rate was 134.56/1000, of which the rate for married women was 172.36/1000. A random sampling from Shancai of 18-49 year old women showed an average of 2.3 children per couple. The factors influencing rural fertility are economic, social, ideological, and cultural. The economic system of distribution according to work has actually encouraged population growth because in rural areas where the standard of living is low larger families with more workers have greater incomes than smaller families with fewer workers. Early marriage and early births are encouraged under this system, as evidenced by findings in Fugou County. The survey also found that in the 3 counties, virtually everyone marries, women who work tend to work in the village close to home, high illiteracy is prevalent, and traditional attitudes of favoring males over females were all factors contributing to early and frequent births. In order to lower rural birth rates, rural economy should be developed, old attitudes and habits should be changed, and literacy should be increased.