Social Disorganization Theory and the Contextual Nature of Crime in Nonmetropolitan Counties*

Abstract This research explores violent and property crime rates in nonmetropolitan counties. It is argued that crime rates are lower in these counties because of higher levels of social integration. We test the hypothesis that predictors of crime from social disorganization theory exert different effects on violent and property crimes at different levels of population change in nonmetropolitan counties. We use a spatial lag regression model to predict the 1989–1991 average violent and property crime rates for these counties, taken from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR). The results show that a factor‐analyzed index of resource disadvantage (poverty rate, income inequality, unemployment, percent female‐headed households) has different effects on both violent and property crime at different levels of population change in nonmetropolitan counties. Contrary to expectations, we find that resource disadvantage exerts a greater positive effect on both violent and property crimes in nonmetropolitan counties that lost population between 1980 and 1990. Implications for theory and research are discussed.     

SIZE MATTERS:

Previous research explaining macrolevel crime patterns has generally been limited in focus to urban communities. Further, the bulk of this research has narrowly investigated links between socioeconomic deprivation, and to a lesser extent labor market characteristics, and crime rates. Taken together, these two foci reveal important limitations in extant research. First, few studies have examined whether levels of socioeconomic disadvantage impact crime rates in nonmetropolitan settings, despite the fact that some rural communities have high levels of socioeconomic disadvantage and serious crime problems. Second, research on labor markets and crime has assumed that manufacturing industries are uniformly good for communities. Yet an emerging body of research suggests that the size of local manufacturing establishments may have important implications for community socioeconomic well-being, organization, and social control. Drawing from recent research documenting the positive impact small manufacturing firms have on communities, we expect a strong presence of small firms to be associated with low crime rates in nonmetropolitan areas. Moreover, our conceptual framework suggests that the presence of small manufacturing will temper the criminogenic effects socioeconomic disadvantage has on crime rates. Based on data from 1,731 nonmetropolitan counties, our findings lend strong support to these expectations. The implications of these findings for theory and research on aggregate crime rates are discussed.     

CRIMINAL OPPORTUNITY THEORY AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POVERTY AND PROPERTY CRIME

Criminal opportunity theory suggests that community economic deprivation has two countervailing effects on property crime: it causes strain and disorganization which may encourage some individuals to offend, but it also simultaneously lessens opportunities to engage in property crime by reducing the supply of worthwhile targets in an area. The present study examines the relationship between economic deprivation and rates of burglary and motor vehicle theft for census tracts in two large American cities (Austin and Seattle). Regression analyses support the opportunity saturation hypothesis derived from criminal opportunity theory. This hypothesis suggests that the relationship between levels of deprivation and property crime is curvilinear where the positive effect of deprivation on property crime is stronger at low levels of neighborhood poverty than it is at high levels. Research and policy implications are discussed.     

Migration of Hispanic Youth and Poverty Status: A Logit Analysis

Abstract In 1988 the Census Bureau reported that 28.2 percent of the 20 million U.S. Hispanics lived in poverty. This research focuses on the relationship between poverty and the migration of Hispanic youth. Individual- and county-level variables are incorporated into a logit analysis. An important finding is that Hispanic youth who are poor have higher ratios of migration than nonpoor Hispanic youth. Also, Hispanic youth residing in counties with higher rates of poverty are more likely to migrate than those living in more prosperous counties. However, these relationships change when multilevel interactions between individual and contextual variables are considered.     

A Shot of Morality? Hispanic Immigration,Religious Contextual Characteristics,and Violence

Extant research often finds that the relative size of the Hispanic immigrant population is inversely associated with rates of crime at the macro level. Yet, few studies have empirically examined the indirect pathways through which Hispanic immigration might impact crime, especially sociocultural characteristics such as religious context. Utilizing data on known violent crimes from over 600 U.S. counties in 2010 paired with religious contextual data from the Religious Congregation and Membership Survey (RCMS), we observe that the presence of Hispanic immigrants is positively associated with community-level Catholic adherence, civically engaged religious adherence, and religious homogeneity that, in turn, are negatively associated with violent crime. Overall, religious contextual characteristics appear to significantly mediate the link between Hispanic immigration and violence at the macro level. Implications for the immigration-crime literature and broader macro-structural research are discussed.     

Social Disorganization in New Latino Destinations?*

Abstract Rural industrial restructuring, including growth in meat processing and other nondurable manufacturing, has generated employment opportunities that have attracted Latino in‐migrants to new nonmetropolitan destinations. Long‐time residents, however, are not always receptive. While some observers point to economic and social benefits of a Latino influx, others believe that the newcomers drain local resources, raise poverty and crime rates, and diminish the quality of life in their communities. We evaluate the influence of rapid population growth on emerging Latino destinations—new boomtowns. We use data from the U.S. census and other sources to measure changes in local economic circumstances and quality of life in nonmetropolitan boom counties experiencing high rates of Latino growth between 1990 and 2000. Our findings indicate that large influxes of Latinos had surprisingly few negative economic consequences for local populations. Furthermore, the quality of life in new destinations did not deteriorate in comparison to other nonmetropolitan counties, especially with regard to crime. Mounting pressure to educate students with limited English proficiency is nevertheless apparent. Our conclusion highlights relevant national policy debates and underscores the need for commitment on the part of firms responsible for Latino growth.     

Church, place, and crime: Latinos and homicide in new destinations

Latinos are moving beyond traditional areas and settling in new, potentially disorganized destinations. Without an established immigrant community, new destinations appear to rely more on the local religious ecology to regulate community life and to keep crime low. We examine the link between religious ecology and Latino homicide victimization for traditional and new destination counties. We observe four findings. (1) A Catholic presence has no effect on Latino violence in the old and well-organized traditional settlement areas. But in new Latino settlement areas, a Catholic presence substantially lowers violence against Latinos. In contrast, mainline Protestantism is linked to high levels of violence against Latinos in new destinations. (2) Previous claims that Latino communities are safe do not apply to new destinations, where Latinos are murdered at a high rate. (3) Previous claims that areas with high Latino immigration are safe for Latinos are not true for new destinations. (4) New Latino destinations offer little insulation from the effects of economic deprivation on violence. We discuss the implications of the findings.     

Strategic Mobsters or Deprived Migrants? Testing the Transplantation and Deprivation Models of Organized Crime in an Effort to Understand Criminal Mobility and Diversity in the United States

The aim of this research is to study the emergence and mobility of organized crime in the United States. Focusing on Albanian organized crime in New York City, it investigates whether organized crime groups move abroad easily and reproduce their territorial control in a foreign country. This research explores the relevance of two perspectives on organized crime: the transplantation/importation model, and the deprivation model. Findings are based on analysis of court documents, interviews with law enforcement officials, Albanian immigrants, and Albanian offenders. The study did not find strong support for either the transplantation or the deprivation model of organized crime. There is no evidence of strategic organized crime transplantation. The findings suggest that the mobility of organized crime groups is functional and varies across criminal markets, and that not only economic foundations but also social forces and symbolic rewards of criminal migration need to be examined for better government policies.     

A TEST FOR THE EFFECT OF CONFORMITY ON CRIME RATES USING VOTER TURNOUT

Using voter turnout to measure conformity, this article examines whether conformity with social norms moderates the crime rate in the United States at the state and county levels. If people are fairly consistent in their response to the perceived local degree of conformity with norms about voting and against crime, analysis predicts a unique quadratic relationship between reported crime rates and voter turnout. A pooled multivariate regression analysis of state crime rates for several index crimes in 1960, 1970, and 1980 confirms the predicted relationship, as do county-level analyses of the violent crime rate in 1985 and 1991. This method might also be used to assess the effect of social conformity on other social choices.     

Southern culture and patterns of victim‐offender relationships in homicide: A study of primary and nonprimary homicide in Louisiana

This paper examines the relative influence of Southern culture versus social structural features on primary (dispute motivated) and nonprimary (crime motivated) homicide rates in Louisiana. Multiple regression analysis is used to compare the determinants of homicide in parishes ("counties") with typical Southern cultural heritage with those of parishes with French‐Catholic heritage. It was found that Southern culture exerted a greater positive influence on primary homicide rates than most structural variables, but was negative with respect to nonprimary rates. Implications for clarifying the debate concerning the existence of a Southern subculture of violence are discussed.     

'Restrain the Lawless Savages': Native Defendants in the Criminal Courts of the North West Territories, 1878–1885

This article examines the imposition of Canadian criminal Law on the native population of the North West Territories 1878–1885. In spite of severe deprivation as a result of the difficulties of adjusting to an agricultural economy, the crime rate among the native population was strikingly low. With the single exception of livestock theft, native crime rates were less than 20% of those of whites. The authors conclude that the Canadian authorities adopted a cautious and selective approach to introducing criminal sanctions. Native dispute settlement institutions remained viable and individuals were able to choose which system best suited their circumstances.     

Access Denied: The Relationship between Alcohol Prohibition and Driving under the Influence

Alcohol prohibition continues to be a policy pursued by more than 10 percent of the counties in the United States. However, many questions exist about the effectiveness of prohibition policies for controlling social maladies such as accidents and fatal injuries related to driving under the influence (DUI). In this research, a situational crime prevention framework is used to evaluate the hypothetical relationship between countywide alcohol prohibition and incidents of DUI. We focus specifically on county-level comparisons of DUI arrests in Arkansas where slightly more than half of the counties are "dry" (sale of alcohol to the general public is prohibited). Utilizing police reports of DUI arrests we examine whether the dry county distinction is indeed associated with fewer DUI arrests than found in wet counties. Findings indicate that the dry county distinction does not result in significantly lower rates of DUI arrest when law enforcement variables are considered. These findings are analyzed and implications for future research are discussed.     

Disconnected Geography: A Spatial Analysis of Disconnected Youth in the United States

Since the Great Recession, US policy and advocacy groups have sought to better understand its effect on a group of especially vulnerable young adults who are not enrolled in school or training programs and not participating in the labor market, so called ‘disconnected youth.’ This article distinguishes between disconnected youth and unemployed youth and examines the spatial clustering of these two groups across counties in the US. The focus is to ascertain whether there are differences in underlying contextual factors among groups of counties that are mutually exclusive and spatially disparate (non-adjacent), comprising two types of spatial clusters – high rates of disconnected youth and high rates of unemployed youth. Using restricted, household-level census data inside the Census Research Data Center (RDC) under special permission by the US Census Bureau, we were able to define these two groups using detailed household questionnaires that are not available to researchers outside the RDC. The geospatial patterns in the two types of clusters suggest that places with high concentrations of disconnected youth are distinctly different in terms of underlying characteristics from places with high concentrations of unemployed youth. These differences include, among other things, arrests for synthetic drug production, enclaves of poor in rural areas, persistent poverty in areas, educational attainment in the populace, children in poverty, persons without health insurance, the social capital index, and elders who receive disability benefits. This article provides some preliminary evidence regarding the social forces underlying the two types of observed geospatial clusters and discusses how they differ.     

Inequality,Unemployment and Crime: A Cross-National Analysis*

In order to contribute to the development of an international perspective on crime and to examine a central tenet similar to many theoretical perspectives on the etiology of crime, cross-national data on inequality, unemployment, and crime rates were analyzed. It was hypothesized that nations having a high rate of unemployment and an inequitable distribution of income would have a high crime rate. The results of the correlational analyses indicate a moderate positive relationship between the rate of unemployment and homicide rates, whereas there are small negative relationships between unemployment rates and (1) the rates of property crime, and (2) the total crime rates. The variable of inequality is strongly related to the three indices of crime and the directions of the relationships are consistent with those involving unemployment rates. The results were further investigated to examine the possibility that the observed relationships were due to the effects of industrialization. The direction of the zero-order correlations involving property crime rates and total crime rates are not changed in the partial correlations and the strength of the relationships are not consistently reduced. These results are discussed in reference to their implications for criminological theory and the development of a comparative criminology.     

Economic structure and crime: The case of Japan

Despite a high rate of industrialization, crime rates in Japan have declined overall since World War II. This is inconsistent with the “Durkheimian-Modernization” respective which argues that rapid socioeconomic changes increase crime rates. Although a number of qualitative studies investigate possible reasons for Japan's low and declining crime rates, few employ quantitative analyses with aggregate data. This paper systematically examines the impact of poverty, economic inequality and unemployment, on homicide, robbery and larceny rates among the 47 prefectures in Japan. The multiple regression analysis reveals a significant positive relationship between unemployment rates and homicide and robbery and between the degree of economic inequality and larceny. The poverty level is significantly and positively correlated only with homicide, but this relationship vanishes when controls for unemployment rate, the percent of young males and the level of industrialization are introduced. The implications of these findings for Japanese economic policy are discussed.     

The Impact of the Rural Population Component on Homicide Rates in the United States: A County-Level Analysis

Abstract Using 3,130 U.S. counties or county equivalents, this paper provides a test of the impact of rural population on the violent crime of homicide, while controlling for the effects of other correlates. The results indicate that the traditional bond of group cohesion assumed to be associated with the rural environment and its residents continues to have an inhibiting effect on homicide for counties in the United States.     

WHY DO INCREASED ARREST RATES APPEAR TO REDUCE CRIME: DETERRENCE,INCAPACITATION, OR MEASUREMENT ERROR?

This paper attempts to discriminate between deterrence, incapacitation, and measurement error as explanations for the negative empirical relationship between arrest rates and crime. Measurement error cannot explain the observed patterns in the data. Incapacitation suggests that an increase in the arrest rate for one crime will reduces all crime rates; deterrence predicts that an increase in the arrest rate for one crime will lead to a rise in other crimes as criminals substitute away from the first crime. Empirically, deterrence appears to be the more important factor, particularly for property crimes. ( JEL K42)     

The Industrial Transformation of Farm Communities: Implications for Family Structure and Socioeconomic Conditions

Abstract The industrialization of agriculture has resulted in extensive declines in the number of farms and in the number of people employed in agriculture. For many farm communities, this has resulted in rapid population declines. Other farm communities have been able to attract alternative sources of employment. This study analyzes family structure and socioeconomic conditions in 281 Great Plains counties that were economically dependent on agriculture at one time. Surprisingly, it was found that, while communities remaining agriculturally dependent had extensive population declines, they also had higher rates of employment, lower poverty rates, higher proportions of married couple households, and income levels equal to counties now economically dependent on nonfarm industries. Conditions in counties that have become service based were especially troubling.     

Language Use and Violence: Assessing the Relationship Between Linguistic Context and Macrolevel Violence

Scholars have produced a sizable body of research assessing the macrolevel links between immigration and crime. However, researchers have given far less attention to related questions about the effects of language use on aggregate levels of violence. The current study addresses this gap in research by exploring the ways that patterns of language use—specifically, language heterogeneity and Spanish‐language concentration—are related to year 2010 serious violent crime rates for nearly 2,900 census places across the United States. Results of our analysis reveal that linguistic heterogeneity is associated with increased violence and that this relationship is stronger in disadvantaged contexts. In contrast, Spanish‐language concentration appears to be protective against violence and mitigates the violence‐generating effects of structural disadvantage, net of immigration and other macrostructural characteristics. Implications of these findings for research on immigration, communities and crime, and related theoretical perspectives on immigrant revitalization and macrostructural theories of crime are discussed.     

Development and Social Problems: The Impact of the Offshore Oil Industry on Suicide and Homicide Rates1

Abstract There are few studies in the literature concerning economic development that examine the impact of offshore oil and gas extraction on communities and even fewer that use annual data, examine more than one community and account for the degree of involvement of the community in the oil industry. This study rectifies these problems. The results support hypotheses derived from social disorganization and relative deprivation theories by demonstrating that higher levels of and rapid changes in development are associated with higher homicide and suicide rates, especially in communities that are more involved in resource extraction. The utility of the methods and the implications of the results for theory and future research are discussed.