年龄视角下家庭结构转变对农村老人代际支持的影响

本文采用“安徽省农村老年人生活福利状况”2001-2018年7期专项追踪调查数据,聚焦年龄效应构建个体增长模型,深入探究年龄视角下家庭结构转变对农村老人代际支持的动态影响。结果表明,代际支持策略随家庭结构而异,同时该策略会因老人年龄调节而有所调整。其中,随年龄调节,“变为独居”老人会为子女提供更多经济支持;“一直二代及以上同住”老人与其子女间情感亲密越差;“变为二代及以上同住”老人逐渐获得更多日常照料;“一直隔代同住”与“变为隔代同住”老人会得到子女更高水平经济支持,并减少照料支持提供。结果揭示了在老龄化与城市化并行推进的背景下,家庭养老在农村的主体地位仍牢固,巩固家庭养老的主体地位对缓解农村社会养老压力意义深远;揭示了社会应重视不同家庭结构老人的群体异质性,提倡老人接受符合其养老期待的差异化社会养老服务;揭示了孝道观念深刻根植于子女内心并不断驱使其改进代际支持策略,通过两代人的不同支持行为,利用各自优势实现需求互补,这对促进家庭代际和谐至关重要。     

当代中、日、韩养老模式变迁比较

中、日、韩三国受儒家文化的影响,历来有家庭养老的传统。近年来,这三国都经历着传统家庭解体的变革,尽管国情不同,这三国子女赡养老人的意识日渐淡漠,老人与子女同住的家庭减少,单身老人与老年人夫妇单独生活的家庭增加。由于经济发展水平、人口老龄化程度及养老观念等因素的差别,三国在人口老龄化方面所采取的具体对策也不同。     

失能老人养老状况分析

文章基于2011年中国老年健康影响因素追踪调查数据,对失能老人的养老状况进行分析。研究发现,93%的失能老人都属于80岁及以上年龄组,女性失能老人的数量是男性失能老人的2倍,城镇失能老年人口比重高于农村地区。失能老人的主要生活来源来自子女供给的占66%,来自政府和社团支持的仅占6%,77%的失能老人表示能满足生活需求。失能老人的医疗保险覆盖率为79%,但养老保险仅占18%。在照顾主体方面,88%的照顾来自家庭内部,54%的失能老人表示现有的照顾能满足基本生活需要。在居住安排和居住意愿方面,87%的失能老人选择与家人同住,近60%的失能老人倾向于与子女一起居住,其居住意愿受失能老人的年龄、失能程度和婚姻状况的影响显著。     

养老资本对老年人机构养老意愿影响的作用机制研究

利用可持续生计框架和行为模型,构建体现老年人生存和发展能力的养老资本,分析养老资本对老年人机构养老意愿的影响以及子代支持对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现,城市老人的养老资本存量、子代支持和机构养老意愿都高于农村老人;综合养老资本对老年人机构养老意愿存在显著负向影响,金融资本提高老人机构养老意愿,社会资本和物质资本则反之;养老资本对老年人机构养老意愿影响存在群体差异,养老资本越丰富,农村老人和多子女老人意愿越低,城市老人和失能老人则相反;子代支持对养老资本与老年人机构养老意愿关系的调节作用显著,养老资本和子代支持在影响老人机构养老意愿中具有明显的替代关系。结果表明,城市老人和失能老人的机构养老需求更大,且丰富的养老资本尤其是金融资本和人力资本鼓励有需求的老人选择机构养老。因此,政府有关部门应联合社会团体、民间资本,推进养老机构高质量发展,满足老年人多样化照料需求。     

老年人与子女同住 对老年健康的影响分析

随着我国老龄化程度的持续加深和疾病谱的转变,当前社会存在大量老年照料需求,尽管国家和社会在积极构建养老服务体系,但短期内与子女同住的家庭养老模式仍将发挥重要作用。与子女同住会对老年健康产生一定的影响,这种影响对于不同健康程度的老年人也存在差异。本文基于南加州大学经济与社会研究中心提供的Harmonized CHARLS 2013-2015年追踪数据,选取我国60岁及以上老年群体为研究对象,以虚弱指数表征健康结果,采用OLS回归和分位数回归的方法探讨与子女同住的居住模式对老年健康的影响及这一影响对不同虚弱程度的老年人是否匀质,通过滞后模型设计和倾向值匹配法控制可能存在的内生性问题。研究发现居住模式与虚弱指数存在显著的正向关系,表明居住模式会影响老年健康水平;与子女同住对老年人健康存在负面效应,而在父母附近分而不离的居住模式相较于与子女同住而言对老年人的健康更为有利;与子女同住对老年健康的这种负向影响对于不同虚弱程度的老年人而言是非线性、非匀质的,大致呈先增后降的倒U形分布,表明不同健康状况的老年人对子女的照料需求是不同的,这种影响在不同性别、城乡和年龄段的老年群体间各有差异。这就为与子女同住的居住模式提供了一些警示,与子女同住不能改变老年健康衰减的趋势,应尽量减少或规避可能增加老年人晚年健康负担的风险性因素,让"家"真正成为老年人安享晚年的港湾。     

农村土地养老状况及影响因素分析

随着农村社会经济的发展,土地作为农村养老保障支柱的地位正在逐渐减弱。文章利用"2002年农村计划生育夫妇养老问题与对策研究"的调查数据,从老年人的养老所需和土地收入的供给两个角度出发,分析了土地养老的现状。同时采用Logistic回归的方法,分析地区差异、老人及其子女的人口特征、家庭特征这三类因素对土地养老能力的影响。研究结果显示,地区之间存在很大差异;老人及其同住子女的年龄、文化程度、从业类型不同,导致土地养老的可能性呈现显著差异;家庭规模越大、人均责任田越少,土地养老的可能性越小,而家庭总收入的影响则并不显著。     

日本女性与老人家庭养老

在日本老人、高龄老人人口日益增多、照顾需求增大的现实面前,作为传统的照顾老人主要提供者的日本妇女却逐步退出照顾的舞台。本文分析了促使这种变化的几个原因：新的法律给予妇女在社会、家庭中平等的权力,妇女无心也无力为年长者提供更多的服务;妇女对家庭的居住规则,赡养老人及自己老后如何养老问题在观念上也有很大的变化,突出的特点是希望有自己的家庭空间（ 小家庭,核心家庭） ,不与上一代人同住;尽力自立,不依靠或者少依赖子女,将目光转向社会,希望社会能提供更多的养老服务     

老年人口居住安排与居住意愿研究

文章基于2011年中国社会状况调查数据,分析城乡老年人口居住安排现状及居住意愿。研究结果表明,老年人口家庭规模日益缩小,老年空巢家庭数量不仅在城市大幅提高,农村的独居老人家庭比例也在持续上升。在老年人理想居住方式方面,能否自理对老年人的养老意愿产生很大影响。在生活可以自理时,老年人以居家养老为主,希望独居的比例较高;在生活不能自理时,城市老人希望到机构养老和与子女同住的比例提高。此外,婚姻状况、教育程度、居住地类型、生活费来源等对养老的居住安排有显著影响。     

大城市老年人养老方式选择意愿的变迁(1998-2017)——以广州为例

本文利用1998年、2008年和2017年"广州市老年人口生活状况调查"的原始数据,在一般性地考察变化及其影响因素的基础上,重点分析老年人养老方式选择意愿的时期效应。研究表明:1998-2017年间,广州老年人的养老方式选择意愿出现了明显的多样化、独立性特征,在向居家养老回归的同时,对自我养老的认同持续、明显增加;同时,个人特征、健康禀赋、社会经济特征、居住安排、家庭成员及代际关系等对其皆有显著影响。而且,随着时间的推移,与子女或孙子女同住的实际居住安排强化了老年人对与子女同住养老方式的认同,促进了老年人实际的与理想的养老方式的统一;但是,在促进老年人对与子女同住养老方式的认同方面,和睦的家庭关系及频繁的代际互动的作用有所减弱。基于此,本文提出,我国养老服务体系的建立、健全要有多层次、多样化、动态性、灵活性及家庭居住安排、代际关系新变化的考虑。     

“社会养老”是否淡化了“子女责任”观念？--来自中国农村居民的经验证据

参保行为与养老观念存在双向因果关系,倾向于子女养老的居民参加养老保险的概率较低,而参加养老保险也改变着居民的养老观念。通过联立方程模型以及工具变量控制内生性后,得出了养老保险淡化“子女养老”观念的净效应,进而指出养老保险制度不仅挤出了子女对老人的经济支持,同时也弱化了人们的家庭养老观念。国家大力推行的养老保障体系在行为与观念两个层面上挤出了家庭养老,以国家制度化养老保障体系为主体的社会养老模式对家庭养老模式具有替代性。在养老模式的变迁中要综合考虑各主体的功能与责任,联合各界力量共同承担社会养老责任。     

Parental marital disruption and intergenerational transfers: An analysis of lone elderly parents and their children

Although one of the most marked demographic trends observed over the twentieth century is the increased rate of divorce, relatively little research has explored the effects of these changing marital patterns in the context of an aging society. Using a sample of lone elderly parents and their adult children, we analyze the direct and indirect effects of marital disruption on four important dimensions of intergenerational transfers: coresidence, financial assistance, adult children's provision of informal care, and parental purchase of paid care. Our findings suggest that divorce has deleterious effects on intergenerational transfers, particularly for elderly fathers. Remarriage further reduces exchange. Our results reveal that parents engage in lower levels of transfers with stepchildren relative to biological children. Moreover, intergenerational transfers are sensitive to characteristics of biological children but not to those of stepchildren. Taken together, these results suggest that exchange at the end of the life course continues to be adversely affected by marital disruption.     

Shifting coresidence near the end of life: Comparing decedents and survivors of a follow-up study in China

What we know about transitions in coresidence of elders in China is based on panel data involving survivors. This article examines the tendency to and determinants of shifts in coresidence with adult children among the very old, comparing survivors of an intersurvey period with those who died (decedents). Data come from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Baseline and follow-up surveys indicate shifts in coresidence, defined as change from not living with an adult child to living in the same household as an adult child, and the converse. Rates of shifting are adjusted for time to follow-up. Regressions examine predictors of shifts among four groups: baseline coresident and noncoresident survivors and decedents. Decedents and noncoresidents are more likely to shift than survivors and coresidents. Covariates related to physical and material need as well as marital status are the strongest predictors of shift. Thus, the needs of a very old person dominate coresidential shifts and stability, lending support to an altruistic notion of living arrangement decision making. In the end, we conclude that the period nearing the end of life is a time of flux in living situation and that coresidential shifts are underestimated when those who die during a follow-up study are ignored.     

Reassessing the decline in parent-child old-age coresidence during the twentieth century

The share of the elderly living with an adult child decreased monotonically throughout the twentieth century, while the probability of reaching old age and the number of years lived in old age increased. As a result, the expected number of life-years lived with adult children while in old age may have increased, decreased, or stayed the same. I estimate that the number of life-years lived in old-age coresidence with adult children stayed roughly constant between 1900 and 1940, while the rate of coresidence declined. Life years lived in old-age coresidence then declined substantially between 1940 and 1990. Moreover, the number of life-years lived in old-age coresidence in 1990 would have been roughly half as great as it actually was had there been no improvements in mortality between 1900 and 1990. And if fertility had remained at its 1900 levels, life-years lived in old-age coresidence would have been about 45% higher in 1990 than it actually was. The results imply that analyses of the change in familial assistance to the elderly should also consider changes in mortality.     

Stability and change in temporal distance between the elderly and their children

Drawing on a developmental model of late-life migration, this paper investigates how older people’s health and social characteristics influence stability and change in their temporal distance from their children. Data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging are used to examine both discrete transitions and continuous change in distance over a four-year period. Decline in older parents’ physical health increased the propensity of parents and children to become temporally closer to each other. Among those parent-child pairs who had become closer, the conjunction of declining health and widowhood increased both the degree of non-coresident proximity and the likelihood of transition to coresidence. The findings portray a geographically resilient family that adjusts to the changing needs of its older members.     

Household extension of the elderly in China

Using data from a 1987 elderly survey, this study examines demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as expressed preferences for the patrilineal extended family as factors affecting coresidence among Chinese elderly. Consistent with expectations, three quarters of the elderly live with their children and the overwhelming majority of extended households are with a married son and grandchildren. This study contributes to the literature on Asian developing nations by illustrating the role of a government supported pension system in explaining prior perplexing results for urbanization, by documenting the role of preferences for the patrilineal extended family and by exploring earlier suggestions that factors vary by marital status. The greater vulnerability of widowed elderly is shown not only by higher rates of coresidence, but also by interactive effects with economic resources, age and number of sons.     

Do coresidency and financial transfers from the children reduce the need for elderly parents to works in developing countries?

Do elderly parents use coresidence with or financial transfers from children to reduce their own labour supply in old age? This paper is one of only a few studies that seeks to formally model elderly labour supply in the context of a developing country while taking into account coresidency with and financial transfers from children. We find little evidence that support from children—either through transfers or coresidency—substitutes for elderly parents’ need to work. Thus, as in developed countries, there is a role for public policy to enhance the welfare of the elderly population.     

国外老年人跨国养老需求的调查分析

我国一些地方陆续出现的冠以“国际”的老年住宅等凸现了企业涉足跨国养老新兴领域的意愿 ,其尝试如能成功 ,将产生一定的社会示范效应 ,对促进我国老龄产业的发展具有积极的作用。本文根据市场调查等资料 ,结合国内外产业界和政府部门的有关动向 ,对日本等国外老年人的基本现状及其对跨国养老的需求进行了分析。     

The impact of “parent care” on female labor supply decisions

Data from the 1986–1988 Survey of Income and Program Participation panels were used to analyze how informal-caregiving of disabled elderly parents affected female labor supply. Instrumental variables analyses suggested that coresidence with a disabled parent leads to a large, significant reduction in work hours, due primarily to withdrawal from the labor force. Although the impact of nonhousehold member caregiving was insignificant, evidence of an effect was stronger when commitment of caregiving time was greater. Projections of female labor force participation rates should account for potential increases in caregiving demand due to the aging of the U.S. population.     

Intergenerational Coresidence in Developing Countries

Newly available census microdata from IPUMS‐International are used to assess trends in intergenerational coresidence in 15 developing countries. Contrary to expectations, we find no general decline in intergenerational coresidence over the past several decades. There have been, however, significant changes in the configuration of intergenerational coresidence. Families in which a member of the older generation is household head—a configuration consistent with traditional patriarchal forms in which the older generation retains authority—are becoming more common in most of the countries. Intergenerational families headed by a member of the younger generation—the configuration one would expect if intergenerational coresidence were motivated by a need for old‐age support—are on the decline in most of the countries. Multivariate analysis reveals that intergenerational families headed by the older generation are positively associated with measures of economic development. These findings are at variance with widely accepted social theory. We hypothesize that housing shortages, economic stress in the younger generation, and old‐age pensions may contribute to the change. More broadly, in some developing countries rising incomes may have allowed more people to achieve their preferred family structure of intergenerational coresidence following traditional family forms.