Flexible time window management for attended home deliveries

In the competitive world of online retail, customers can choose from a selection of delivery time windows on a retailer’s website. Creating a set of suitable and cost-efficient delivery time windows is challenging, since customers want short time windows, but short time windows can increase delivery costs significantly. Furthermore, the acceptance of a request in a short time window can greatly restrict the ability to accommodate future requests. In this paper, we present customer acceptance mechanisms that enable flexible time window management in the booking of time-window based attended home deliveries. We build tentative delivery routes and check which time windows are feasible for each new customer request. We offer the feasible long delivery time windows and let our approaches decide when to offer short time windows. Our approaches differ in the information they consider with regard to customer characteristics as well as detailed characteristics of the evolving route plan. We perform a computational study to investigate the approaches’ ability to offer short time windows and still allow for a large number of customers to be served. We consider various demand scenarios, partially derived from real order data provided by a German online supermarket.     

宏观压力测试下商业银行零售信贷产品PD模型预测研究

通过将宏观经济指标与商业银行零售信贷产品住房按揭PD构建宏观变量预测模型，得到预测显著的GDP、CPI、HPI等三个宏观经济指标，再观察其不同滞后阶数组合VAR模型的AICC值，最终选取宏观经济因子高阶项构建回归方程和进行压力测试。研究结果发现：从施压时点开始，不同压力情景下PD均开始缓慢增长趋势，其中重度情景下PD增幅最大。说明使用宏观经济因子的阶乘能更好捕捉上述特征，PD预测模型能准确描述风险传导过程，此举可有效帮助商业银行加强零售信贷领域风险管理。     

Does Corporate Culture Affect Bank Risk‐Taking? Evidence from Loan‐Level Data

Using comprehensive corporate and retail loan data, we show that the corporate culture of banks explains their risk‐taking behaviour. Banks whose corporate culture leans towards aggressive competition are associated with riskier lending practices: higher approval rate, lower borrower quality, and fewer covenant requirements. Consequently, these banks incur larger loan losses and make greater contributions to systemic risk. The opposite behaviour is observed among banks whose culture emphasizes control and safety. Our findings cannot be explained by heterogeneity in a bank's business model, CEO compensation incentives or CEO characteristics. We use an exogenous shock to the US banking system during the 1998 Russian default crisis to support a causal inference.     

基于“拆分-填充-分解-集成”的我国线上零售额预测研究

线上零售额的准确预测是政府制定零售政策和发展规划的依据,也是电商和物流企业确定发展战略的基础。由于我国线上零售额数据具有样本量小、波动性大、受节日影响大、存在缺失值等特征,准确预测变得十分困难。为解决这个问题,本文提出了一种“拆分-填充-分解-集成”的预测框架。具体而言,首先将数据集拆分为实物零售数据与非实物零售数据两部分。其次,分别根据实物零售与非实物零售数据不同的缺失特征对样条插值法做了改进,提出了基于“样条插值-二分调整”的分解填充法以及基于“分段线性函数拟合-样条插值”的分解填充法,对两组数据进行缺失值填充。继而基于两组数据的不同特征,分别提出“乘法分解-ARIMA-移动平均”以及“STL分解-BP神经网络-灰色波形”的预测方法对两组数据进行预测。最后将两组预测结果集成,得到我国线上零售额的预测值。实证结果表明,本文提出的预测框架能较好地捕捉我国线上零售额数据的特征,具有很高的预测精度,且较传统的缺失值填充和预测方法在性能上表现更好。本文提出的“拆分-填充-分解-集成”预测框架,丰富了现有的缺失值填充与预测方法,并为预测实践提供了解决方案。     

双渠道供应链的产品互补合作策略研究

在供应链中,直销渠道和零售渠道商品的可替代性导致渠道冲突。考虑零售商在传统渠道中附带销售直销渠道商品的互补品,建立了渠道产品互补合作的供应链Bertrand博弈模型。发现若消费者对零售商处互补品的价格敏感,则供应链中互补品的价格下降,制造商产品的渠道价格增加,同时直销渠道的需求和收益均上升,对零售渠道中制造商产品的销售和收益增加有利。利用上述模型,通过算例得出,如果零售商选择合适的互补品在零售渠道进行销售,将能促进双方收益的增加,渠道产品互补合作策略是可行的。     

免费搭车行为对供应链横向竞争的影响

考虑两家处于供应链下游的零售商,其中一家为实体店,一家为网上店,其中网上店利用了顾客的免费搭车行为获得部分市场需求。文章研究了免费搭车行为对两零售商价格竞争及利润的影响。研究表明随着实体店服务水平的上升和网上店初始需求的增大,网上店的均衡利润将增加,两家店的价格竞争将更加激烈;当边际服务成本较低时,实体店的均衡利润要高于网上店的均衡利润,允许顾客的免费搭车行为存在,并缓解了两家店之间的价格竞争;当边际服务成本很高时,实体店入不敷出,不再允许顾客的免费搭车行为。     

考虑广告影响下的新产品垄断动态定价研究

针对垄断零售商的新产品定价问题,提出了一个新产品动态定价策略。在顾客对以往的价格和广告具有"学习"能力的条件下,提出了具有"学习"功能的需求函数。在给定各周期广告水平下,给出了零售商最优的动态定价策略,分析了零售商定价规律,发现其定价规律具有"振荡"性,并趋近于一定值。在零售商要同时决策零售价格和广告水平的条件下,给出了各周期最优的零售价格和广告水平。在一定条件下,当周期数趋近无穷大时零售价格趋近于顾客的保留价格或者单位成本。     

Supermarket product selection uncovered: manufacturer promotions and the channel intermediary

In 1998, food and packaged goods manufacturers presented 17,977 new items for evaluation by channel intermediaries (grocery buyers, merchandisers, and category managers). This product selection process is recognized as a time and labor intensive effort on the part of manufacturers and their retail counterparts. Ultimately, only one-third of these new product introductions may be accepted for distribution. Thus, manufacturers may benefit from increased insight to the channel intermediary’s criteria for deciding which products to stock in their retail stores. It is suggested that this decision may be influenced by the presence of certain promotional and cash offerings, and this issue is examined in a logistic regression.     

考虑商誉的双渠道供应链动态定价与联合减排策略

考虑由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的双渠道供应链，将产品商誉和减排量作为状态变量构建微分博弈模型。文章首先讨论了不同渠道结构下供应链成员的最优均衡策略，随后探讨了广告合作-减排成本分担契约对供应链协调性的影响，最后通过算例对模型进行了分析。研究发现，产品商誉轨迹随时间变化呈现多变性，而减排量轨迹则具有单调性。与单渠道相比，双渠道下零售商的广告努力和利润下降，而制造商的减排努力和利润增大，只有当传统渠道市场占有率较高且制造商竞争较小时，制造商单渠道的利润才高于双渠道，此时制造商将不会开设网络渠道。广告合作-减排成本分担契约可以实现制造商、零售商和整个供应链系统利润的帕累托改善，且消费者低碳偏好和品牌偏好越高，制造商和零售商越有动力达成合作。     

Multichannels Strategy Implementation: The Role of Channel Alignment Capabilities*

A firm's distribution channels represent a key portfolio of resources that can be leveraged for competitive advantage. One approach to this portfolio that has become increasingly important in recent years is multichannel distribution (MCD). While this strategy has important benefits in terms of market coverage and firm performance, the use of multiple channels seriously affects downstream channel roles such as service delivery, as the financial rewards to channel members and the services they offer are separated. A channel member who offers poor or no service can free‐ride on the services offered to the same customer from a different channel. We draw on agency theory to explain these negative consequences. Additionally, the resource‐based view of the firm along with capabilities theory provides two key means of alleviating these consequences: channel tracking capabilities and reward alignment capabilities. The study, conducted in an industry facing serious MCD issues (the outdoor sporting goods industry), used key informant data matched to secondary data. Our results show that managers can reap the performance rewards of MCD strategies while minimizing its negative consequences. In particular, monitoring practices such as frequent site visits and phone contact with customers develop the firm's channel tracking capabilities, allowing managers to better monitor downstream activities. This becomes particularly important as the complexity from having multiple channels increases. Likewise, reward alignment capabilities such as retail price maintenance agreements and cooperative advertising enable the manager to minimize conflict among channel participants by ensuring sufficient profitability for all channel members.     

Competition in retail banking

This article analyses the reasons for increased competition in retail banking. The author emphasizes the willingness of his and other banks to respond to the changing requirements of customers and describes innovations in the banking industry. The conclusion suggests how the banks' range of products and services may develop in the future.     

中小制造企业在线直销与传统分销双渠道定价决策研究

针对传统渠道中处于非主导地位的中小制造企业开展双渠道销售时存在的价格冲突问题,考虑产品数字属性对渠道需求的影响,构建了制造商与零售商独立决策和制造商占非主导地位两种情况下的双渠道定价决策模型,给出了两种情况下的双渠道最优定价,并分别考察了产品数字属性变化以及决策权利结构不同对最优定价的影响。研究结果表明,处于非主导地位的中小制造企业应采用依从强势零售商的定价策略,该策略有利于制造商和零售商以及渠道整体收益的增加;随着产品数字属性的增大,制造商的最优定价相应地提高,而零售商的最优定价则相应地降低;制造商占非主导地位时的双渠道最优定价高于制造商与零售商独立决策时的双渠道最优定价。     

CHEXPEDITE: A COMPUTER-BASED APPROACH TO THE BANK COURIER PROBLEM

This paper presents a successful computer-based approach to scheduling courier vehicles for the check collection system in multibranch commercial banks. The approach has been adopted by six large banks in the United States and has achieved dramatic cost savings at several of these banks. This paper begins by describing the bank courier problem and reviewing several approaches to the problem that have been proposed in the literature. A practical, computer-based approach to the bank courier problem is then presented. Finally, implementation experience at several banks is overviewed.     

Why Competition from a Multi‐Channel E‐Tailer Does Not Always Benefit Consumers*

Empirical studies have delivered mixed conclusions on whether the widely acclaimed assertions of lower electronic retail (e‐tail) prices are true and to what extent these prices impact conventional retail prices, profits, and consumer welfare. For goods that require little in‐person pre‐ or postsales support such as CDs, DVDs, and books, we extend Balasubramanian's e‐tailer‐in‐the‐center, spatial, circular market model to examine the impact of a multichannel e‐tailer's presence on retailers' decisions to relocate, on retail prices and profits, and consumer welfare. We demonstrate several counter‐intuitive results. For example, when the disutility of buying online and shipping costs are relatively low, retailers are better off by not relocating in response to an e‐tailer's entry into the retail channel. In addition, such an entry—a multichannel strategy—may lead to increased retail prices and increased profits across the industry. Finally, consumers can be better off with less channel competition. The underlying message is that inferences regarding prices, profits, and consumer welfare critically depend on specifications of the good, disutility and shipping costs versus transportation costs (or more generally, positioning), and competition.     

制造商应对强势零售商的战略反应及对我国零售业开放的启示

在渠道关系中,制造商与零售商的利益往往是相互冲突的,制造商面对强势零售商时处于弱势,而面对弱势零售商时则处于强势。基于不同时期零售商零售成本对称与不对称, 以及强势零售商向制造商规定供货价格而弱势零售商接受制造商的供货价格这两个前提进行分析,通过图形和数学模型来分析制造商的2种战略行为——定价战略和促销战略,以及制造商如何通过这2种战略使其利润最大化。同时,结合中国零售业完全开放的国情,讨论在零售成本非对称的情况下,制造商的2种战略行为对增加其自身利益的有效性及对中国零售业的启示。     

Shaping the future of retail banking

The first half of this article considers recent developments in the retail banking market and, with the aid of tables, describes the present state of the market. Emphasis is placed on the increased competitiveness of the market with more institutions involved in providing more products than ever before, and with more attention being focused on the unbanked sector of the population. The second half of the article considers the factors which are most likely to influence the ruture development of the market—both external influences such as the political, economic and regulatory environment and factors which lie more directly under the control of the banks themselves, such as the introduction of new services and branching policy. The article ends by stressing the scope for individual banks to pursue distinctive policies in this market in future.     

产能有限的供应商主导的双渠道分销策略研究

在供应商产能有限的背景下,研究供应商的最优分配策略和双渠道分销的问题。根据期望利润最大化建立供应商渠道分配模型,依据纳什均衡确定供应商的最优定价、最优产能和最优分销策略。结果表明,在双渠道策略的情况下,供应商应该优先满足销售企业的销售量。若供应链的销售量恰好得到满足,供应商应该按最优产能生产。供应商的渠道选择与供应商产能、供应链各节点的盈利能力和生产成本有关。     

What Happens When Manufacturers Perform The Retailing Functions?

This study examines the effects of a relatively new channel structure on prices and sales in a large department store, which in recent years has switched the management of many of its product categories from a traditional retailer‐managed system to a manufacturer‐managed system. We find that the change caused overall retail prices to decrease. However, there was significant heterogeneity in the response across brands. In the cell phone category, brands with high market shares and inelastic demand did not change prices. In the watch category, the retail prices of relatively low‐end brands decreased while the prices of premium brands increased substantially after the switch. In addition to sales increases due to lower prices, we find that the channel structure change further caused sales to increase by 9–10% in the cell phone category and by 11–17% in the watch category. These results are consistent with previous theoretical predictions. We believe that our results provide important academic and managerial implications due to the increasing prevalence of manufacturer‐managed systems in the retail industry.     

考虑消费者退货的制造商入侵策略研究

在考虑消费者退货的情形下，通过构建包括一个制造商、一个零售商和消费者的二级供应链模型，研究了订货量决策以及制造商开通直销渠道的问题。分析提供退款保证和决策顺序对均衡结果以及制造商开通直销渠道的影响。研究发现：在单一渠道供应链中，提供退款保证提高销量，制造商和零售商利润以及消费者剩余；在不提供退款保证情形下，制造商利润和零售商利润都随零售满意度递增；在提供退款保证情形下，制造商利润和零售商利润都随零售满意度先递减后递增；当直销渠道的成本较高时，制造商将不开通直销渠道；提供退款保证有利于制造商开通直销渠道。在双渠道供应链中：在顺序决策情形下，直销量随零售满意度递增，然而在同时决策情形下，直销量却随零售满意度递减；提供退款保证虽然降低零售商利润但能够提高消费者剩余，零售商利润随直销成本递增，在提供退款保证情形下，制造商利润和总利润随直销成本先递减后递增；当零售满意度较高，且直销成本也较高时，提供退款保证使制造商和零售商“双输”，当零售满意度较高，但直销成本较低时，提供退款保证使制造商和零售商达到(win-lose)。     

双渠道模式下定价与提前期联合优化研究

在双渠道模式下，本文对零售商的价格和提前期决策进行研究。根据零售商线上服务范围的不同，双渠道服务模式可以划分为近端服务模式、中端服务模式和远端服务模式。本文分析了零售商在三种服务模式下最优的价格和提前期决策，并对三种服务模式进行对比。结果表明，如果零售商的配送速度较低，零售商应该选择近端服务模式。如果零售商的配送速度较高，则在中端和远端服务模式中进行选择，且随着成本的增加，提前期均会缩短，这是因为零售商的服务范围会随着配送成本增加而缩小，此外，配送速度的增大也会导致提前期缩短；而价格在两种模式中变化趋势不同，中端服务模式下价格呈现非递增趋势，而远端服务模式下价格呈现非递减趋势。因为在中端服务模式下，零售商更加愿意提供降价来吸引更多的线下需求，而远端服务模式则是提升价格来保证产品的边际收益。研究结论可为零售企业提供有效的科学的参考和理论指导。