机构养老服务效率研究--以厦门市为例

以厦门市为研究对象,在文献回顾的基础上,选取4个投入变量和3个产出变量对该市28家养老机构进行数据包络分析（ DEA）,考察了机构养老服务的综合效率和规模效率情况,并运用Spearman等级相关分析和秩和检验,对养老服务效率与质量以及其他影响因素进行了筛查,通过拟合Tobit模型,发现养老机构的固定资产总值和是否隶属于医院等质量因素对机构养老服务效率产生负向影响。在此基础上,对我国的机构养老政策和发展方向提出意见和建议。     

中国区域间人口红利差异分解及解释——基于数据包络分析模型

劳动力资源作为经济发展的关键要素,其配置效率差异加剧了中国区域间经济发展的失衡。文章从人均经济产出公式出发,构建了一个涵盖人力资本积累和物质资本积累影响因素的人口红利实现模型,并采用数据包络分析法对2006～2010年中国各地区人口红利实现的相对效率进行测度与分解,利用Tobit模型对其技术效率和规模效率进行解释。结果发现,中国东部地区人口红利实现效率明显高于中西部地区,从人口红利实现的技术效率来看,主要受教育水平及聚集效应、劳动参与水平的影响,影响系数分别为0.0102和0.0149;从人口红利实现的规模效率来看,主要受教育水平及聚集效应、资本积累的产业环境、物质资本形成效应的影响,影响系数分别为0.1549、0.1234和0.0371。文章最后提出了相关政策建议。     

人口因素对CO2排放的影响——基于面板分位数回归的实证研究

基于1995～2009年中国省际面板数据,利用面板分位数回归模型估计人口因素对我国CO2排放量的影响,结果显示:人口数量和人口城市化率是影响我国CO2排放的主要人口因素,但从影响大小上看,人口数量变化对发达省份CO2排放的影响大于欠发达省份,而人口城市化率则对欠发达省份的CO2排放具有更大的影响;家庭小型化对CO2排放的影响因省而异,对不同省份,要么没有明显的影响,要么可能导致CO2排放量增加;年龄结构目前还不是导致我国CO2排放量变化的主要人口因素;综合比较而言,经济发展水平对CO2排放的影响大于人口各因素,产业结构对CO2排放的影响小于人口数量和人口城市化率,而技术进步与CO2排放的关系则显得模糊。     

高原山区人口分布特征及其主要影响因素——基于毕节地区的Panel Data计量模型分析

本文基于1987～2007年毕节地区八个县市经济、社会和资源环境方面的面板数据,考察了资源环境、经济水平和社会发展等因素对毕节人口分布变动的影响。研究发现,毕节各县市的人口总量和人口密度稳步增加,呈现协同式的增长态势,但各县市之间增长速度快慢不一,显示了区域间的差异;自然环境因素对人口地域分布变动的影响日趋减弱,但是减小的幅度并不大,说明了自然环境因素对人口分布变动的影响是根深蒂固的;经济水平和社会发展因素对人口密度变动的影响越来越大,其中尤以人均GDP和医疗条件变量更为显著;就人口密度的动态变化影响而言,除了受资源环境、社会经济发展因素的共同影响之外,毕节各个县市还表现出其个体显著差异的特征。     

人口因素对CO2排放的影响:区域差异与动态变化

基于1995—2009年中国省级面板数据,利用IPAT模型建立基本的分析框架,研究人口数量、人口年龄结构、人口城市化率以及家庭规模等人口因素对我国CO2排放的影响,结果显示,由于人口因素与CO2排放的关系与经济发展特征有关,而我国处于经济快速增长的过程中且区域经济发展存在差异,使得影响我国全国CO2排放的人口因素不同于各区域内部,在经济发展的不同阶段、甚至不同年份,导致省际CO2排放差异的人口因素也在不断变化。     

人口受教育程度对居民消费的影响研究--基于动态面板分位数回归法

本文采用1996～2015年的31个省市自治区宏观数据,使用动态面板分位数回归方法研究人口受教育程度和居民消费的数量关系。研究结果表明,人口受教育程度对消费有着较为显著的影响,且人口受教育程度对中等消费支出水平的影响略大于高、低消费支出水平的影响,这说明中等消费水平的居民消费受到人口受教育程度的影响更加敏感和有弹性。另外,模型中其他各解释变量系数在各分位数上的差异不大,说明这些影响因素对于不同消费支出水平的消费影响没有太明显差异。     

城市社区养老服务需求及影响分析——以长春市的调查为例

老年人社区养老服务需求主要包括经济需求、健康医疗需求和休闲娱乐需求等方面,但是对于不同地区、不同老年人,影响需求的因素存在一定的差异。"我国老年人生活状况及养老公共服务需求调查"对长春市社区老年人生活状况及养老服务需求进行调查分析,结果显示,居住类型对老年人经济方面的需求有显著影响,性别和居住类型对老年人医疗健康方面的需求有显著影响,在影响老年人休闲娱乐的诸多因素中,代际关系和受教育程度的影响最为显著。     

中国城市经济效率测度研究

文章选取固定资产投资总额、劳动力作为投入变量,地区生产总值、地方财政预算内收入、职工工资总额作为产出变量,运用DEA分析法对中国城市经济效率进行了研究。研究发现,城市的纯技术效率、规模效率与城市所处的地理位置无关。城市规模效率与城市人口呈正相关关系,增加城市规模能够提高城市效率。中国近年来技术进步和技术效率呈轻微下降趋势,城市规模效率呈低速增长。技术进步和全要素生产率较高的城市以东部地区城市为主。在城市经济发展过程中应注意优化资源配置,加快技术进步。     

人口规模、消费结构和环境效率

人口规模的扩大和消费结构的转型是影响国民经济发展和资源永续利用的关键因素.文章通过超效率DEA方法测得环境效率,并基于STIRPAT模型实证分析我国人口规模、消费结构对环境效率的影响.研究结果表明:2000 ～ 2013年间全国各省环境效率整体呈现波动下降的趋势,区域差异较大.对于人口基数庞大的中国,现阶段人口规模的扩大对环境效率有着负向影响,消费结构作为人口与环境作用过程中的关键中间变量,根据不同的类型与环境效率之间呈现出不同的关系.具体来看,生存、享受型消费与环境效率呈现“U型”关系,拐点分别为60.18％与29.20％,发展型消费与环境效率呈现线性正相关关系.并且随着消费结构的升级,人口规模对环境效率的不利影响将得到明显的改善.     

中国老年人口健康研究

本文应用中国老年科学研究中心1992年"中国老年供养体系调查"数据,估计了OLS,Probit,Tobit和GeneralizedTobit模型。数据分析和估计结果显示,无论在城市还是在农村,男性老年人口比女性老年人口的健康状况好;农村老年人口比城市老年人口的健康状况好;年龄与老年人口的自理能力分值为负相关关系;而老年人口没有患慢性病的事件与年龄之间呈"U"型关系;教育程度对老年人口的健康状况有很大的影响;教育程度对城市老年人口患慢性病的概率和数量的影响相对更大。总的来说,少数民族老年人口的健康状况与汉族老年人口的健康状况没有明显的差异。无论在城市还是在农村,孩子数量多的老年妇女患慢性病的概率相对较高。户均收入水平对城乡老年人口的健康状况都有显著的影响,但在农村,这一影响相对更大。     

人口规模、结构对区域碳排放的影响研究——基于中国省级面板数据的经验分析

目前关于人口对碳排放影响的经验研究,得出大相径庭的结论。基于这种背景,本文以STIRPAT模型为研究起点,运用中国1997～2009年30个省份的面板数据,采用Driscoll和Kraay基于固定效应中纠正异方差、序列相关和截面相关的估计方法,具体考察了地区人口规模、结构对碳排放量的影响。研究表明,在考虑人口结构因素的情况下,人口规模的排放弹性显著为1,因此,以中国为样本研究碳库兹涅茨曲线(CKC)并不会产生太大偏误。在反映人口结构的变量中,劳动年龄人口对碳排放有显著的正向影响,家庭户规模有显著负向影响,而城镇化率对于碳排放的影响并不显著。     

Women’s Well-Being in Iran: Territorial Analysis Using a Multidimensional Approach

This paper employs a multidimensional index for assessing women’s well-being in Iranian provinces using demographic and health survey macro data. Besides economic status as a traditional dimension for objective well-being, other factors such as health, education, risk, and technology as well as self-reported life satisfaction and happiness (psychological well-being) have been included as non-material well-being dimensions. We found that the values of women’s well-being are distributed unequally across the provinces. Southern provinces demonstrate the worst performances and central provinces have the best. Generally, Iranian women are in poor condition in terms of economic variables (e.g. income and participation in the job market), psychological well-being (life satisfaction), HIV literacy, use of the internet, and access to mass media. On the other hand, in recent years, they have made significant progress in education (such as the rate of literacy, high school degree), and health (safe pregnancy care and nutritional supplements).     

The effects of income level,income distribution,education and urbanization on fertility rates among 28 administrative regions of China

Conflicting empirical evidence on the role of income distribution on fertility rates is the impetus for this 1982 study of providence-specific Chinese Census data, excluding Tibet. The findings support the prior thesis of Repetto but utilize the micromethods and per household income measures of the competing findings of Boulier. It is cautioned that in the Chinese analysis equal income distribution depresses fertility, but China may not reflect world wide patterns. China did not have until recently a market incentive system, and there are income measurement problems. The data are per capita economic output not per capita income, and those high output areas which did not produce low fertility may actually have had households with low incomes. The importance of this research is in establishing that cross-province data are a useful tool in understanding the influence of income distribution on fertility. As with most developing countries, women's education, for instance, at least junior high education explained the largest variation of fertility differences among the 28 provinces. The urbanization variable when controlling for income was positive, unlike the other developing countries. The 1949 Chinese government's spatial industrial policy encouraged urbanization and industrialization in rural areas and family planning programs such that highly urbanized provinces have low population density. A variety of variables on income level, income distribution, education, and urbanization are discussed. OLSQ regressions were generated utilizing such independent variables as output per capita in yuan (YOUTHPC80), the square of YOUTHPC80 (YOUTHPC802), YOUTHPC80 multiplied by the average family size in each province (YOUTHPH80), and the squared value of YOUTHPH80.     

China's demographic dilemmas

The year 2000 marks the end of a tumultuous century in China's population history, which weathered the demographic effects of devastating famines, wars, and epidemics and population growth and change. This paper examines the effect of population policies on the demographic dilemmas of China. In the 1950s, China had seen the fastest demographic transition in history, with a dramatic decline in mortality rates, followed by a decrease in fertility rates. However, in the 1970s, revisions in population control measures, changes in age structure, and fluctuations in age at marriage resulted in lower fertility rates. The struggles encountered by China in regulating fertility are described; these include the different methods of birth control, gender preference, marriage, population aging, and minority populations. Population and development issues within the context of urbanization, employment, education, health care, economy, and environment are also discussed. Future implications of these findings indicate the need for a systematic, effective, and complete environmental clean-up, as well as fertility and population policies.     

Impact of population,age structure,and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: evidence from macro-level,cross-country analyses

This review summarizes the evidence from cross-country, macro-level studies on the way demographic factors and processes—specifically, population, age structure, household size, urbanization, and population density—influence carbon emissions and energy consumption. Analyses employing time-variant data have produced great variance in population elasticity estimations—sometimes significantly greater than one, sometimes significantly less than one; whereas, cross-sectional analyses typically have estimated population elasticities near one. Studies that have considered age structure typically have used standard World Bank definitions and mostly have found those variables to be insignificant. However, when researchers have considered levels of disaggregation that approximate life-cycle behavior like family size, they have uncovered relationships that are complex and nonlinear. Average household size has a negative relationship with road energy use and aggregate carbon emissions. Urbanization appears positively associated with energy consumption and carbon emissions. Higher population density is associated with lower levels of energy consumption and emissions.     

Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution

This study adds to the emerging literature examining empirically the link between population size, other demographic factors and pollution. We contribute by using more reliable estimation techniques and examine two air pollutants. By considering sulfur dioxide, we become the first study to explicitly examine the impact of demographic factors on a pollutant other than carbon dioxide at the cross-national level. We also take into account the urbanization rate and the average household size neglected by many prior cross-national econometric studies. For carbon dioxide emissions we find evidence that population increases are matched by proportional increases in emissions while a higher urbanization rate and lower average household size increase emissions. For sulfur dioxide emissions, we find a U-shaped relationship, with the population-emissions elasticity rising at higher population levels. Urbanization and average household size are not found to be significant determinants of sulfur dioxide emissions. For both pollutants, our results suggest that an increasing share of global emissions will be accounted for by developing countries. Implications for the environmental Kuznets curve literature are described and directions for further work identified.     

Demographic challenges and health in Germany

Demographic challenges are affecting the health care system in Germany and globally: a growing aging population; low birth rates; sociopolitical, women’s health, and health care economic issues; and immigration. During a recent Fulbright Scholar program, scholars from several disciplines including demography, sociology, medicine, and nursing examined these demographic challenges facing Germany and other industrialized countries. Enormous challenges exist for industrialized and developing countries related to these demographic changes, the complexity of health care economics, and population issues. In Germany, the shifting population demographics are affecting health care, financing of the German health care system, and the growth of immigrant populations.     

城镇化进程中农业转移人口 市民化的健康效应分析

农业转移人口健康状况关系着中国劳动力质量和生产效率及健康中国战略的实施。本文采用CLDS(2014)调查数据探讨城镇化进程中农业转移人口市民化的健康效应,考虑市民化与健康水平之间可能存在的内生性关系,使用IV Ordered Probit模型进行分析。研究发现农业转移人口市民化显著提升了农业转移人口的健康水平。市民化水平的提高代表农业转移人口可享受城市基本公共服务及社会福利的增加,对健康有促进作用。从健康方面看,农业转移人口市民化促进了总体健康、精神健康、活力、生理功能、情感功能和躯体活动功能。从产业角度看,对比第二产业从业的农业转移人口,第三产业从业的农业转移人口市民化的健康效应更显著,说明对产业工人的职业健康保护力度不够,应加快产业升级,减少或避免劳动者的危险或重复劳动。个体差异是影响农业转移人口市民化健康效应的一个重要因素,从个体差异的起点(教育程度)和个体差异的终点(收入水平)看,教育程度高、收入水平高的农业转移人口市民化的健康效应更显著。户籍制度(尤其是隐藏其背后的社会福利差异)极大地削弱了农业转移人口市民化的健康效应。基于农业转移人口的市民化程度和自身的健康状况的正相关关系,要想改善转移人口的健康状况,实现"健康中国"的目标,应该进一步推进城镇化进程,提高农业转移人口市民化水平;切实落实国务院关于进一步推进户籍制度改革的意见;持续对农村地区及偏远地区加大教育投资,改善教育质量,提高农村地区人口的教育水平。