教育投资收益率计量方法研究

教育投资收益率计量方法研究何光瑶洪荧ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｅｍｅｔｈｏｄｓｔｏｍｅａｓｕｒｅｔｈｅｅｄｕｃａｔｉｏｎｐｒｏｆｉｔｒａｔｅｉｎｔｈｅＷｅｓｔｗｅｒｅａｎａｌｙｚｅｄ;ｔｈｅｎ,ｃｏｍｂｉｎｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｒｅａｌｓｉｔｕａｔｉｏｎｉｎｏ...     

统计调查中回答误差的计量

统计调查中回答误差的计量赵俊康ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＩｔｉｓａｖｅｒｙｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｄｅｍａｎｄｉｎｇｐｒｏｍｐｔｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｔｈａｔｈｏｗｔｏｅｓｔｉｍａｔｅｒｅｓｐｏｎｓｅｅｒｏｒｉｎｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌｓｕｒｖｅｙｓ．Ｔｈｉｓ...     

非经典计量经济建模方法论的特征分析与比较研究

 按照内容的沿革,计量经济模型分为经典计量经济模型和非经典计量经济模型。非经典计量经济建模方法论既是经典计量经济建模方法论的发展和延伸,又在建模理念、建模方法、模型应用等方面有着很大的不同。本文从数据类型、模型变量、建模对象、参数形式、建模思想等几个方面,对非经典计量经济建模方法论进行了系统的梳理、归纳和分析,重点比较了其与经典计量经济建模方法论的不同特征,对计量经济模型方法论发展演进的规律进行了初步的总结。     

当代经济计量学中的协整理论

当代经济计量学中的协整理论赵文奇ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｅｐａｐｅｒｍａｋｅｓｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｃｏｎｃｅｐｔｓ,ｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｓａｎｄｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｍｅａｎｉｎｇｓｏｆｔｈｅｃｏ－ｉｎｔｅｇｒａｔｉｏｎｔｈｅｏｒｙｉｎｍｏｄｅｒｎｅｃ...     

关于技术进步与经济增长关系的若干思考

关于技术进步与经济增长关系的若干思考白雪梅赵松山ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｗｏｉｓｓｕｅｓｗｅｒｅｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｅｄ．Ｔｈｅｆｉｒｓｔｏｎｅｉｓｈｏｗｔｏｍｅａｓｕｒｅｔｈｅｃｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｅｃｈｎｉｃａｌｐｒｏｇｒｅｓｓｔｏｔｈｅｅｃｏｎｏｍ...     

可持续发展与环境经济综合核算

可持续发展与环境经济综合核算薛伟ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｉｓｐａｐｅｒｄｉｓｃｕｓｅｓｔｈｅｎｅｃｅｓｓｉｔｙａｎｄｗａｙｓｏｆｄｏｉｎｇｉｎｔｅｇｒａｔｅｄｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔ－ｅｃｏｎｏｍｙａｃｃｏｕｎｔｉｎｇ,ａｎｄａｎａｌｙｓｅｓｔｈｅｐｒｉｎ...     

在经济数据中寻找混沌

在经济数据中寻找混沌刘洪ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＩｔｉｓａｃｈａｌｅｎｇｅｔｏｔｒａｄｉｔｉｏｎａｌｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｔｈｅｏｒｙａｎｄｍｅｔｈｏｄｏｌｏｇｙｔｈａｔｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｓｙｓｔｅｍｓｃａｎｃｒｅａｔｅｃｈａｏｔｉｃｂｅｈａｖｉｏｒ,ａｎｄｃｈａｏ...     

农业经济增长中广义技术进步的度量方法研究

农业经济增长中广义技术进步的度量方法研究王红玲徐桂祥胡中立ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｉｓｐａｐｅｒｈａｓｍａｄｅｄｅｔａｉｌｅｄｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｉｏｎｏｎｒｅｓｔｒｉｃｔｉｖｅｆａｃｔｏｒｓａｎｄｄｉｆｉｃｕｌｔｐｏｉｎｔｓｉｎｍｅａｓｕｒｅｍｅｎｔｏｆｇｅ...     

一种多指标决策与评价的方法——投影法

一种多指标决策与评价的方法——投影法＊王应明ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＷｉｔｈｔｈｅｂｅｎｅｆｉｃｉａｌｒｅｓｕｌｔｓｏｆｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌｅｃｏｎｏｍｙａｓａａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｂａｃｋｇｒｏｕｎｄ,ｔｈｅｐａｐｅｒｒａｉｓｅｓａｎｅｗｍｅｔｈｏｄｏｆｍ...     

稳中趋好“软着陆”成功——96中国经济评述

稳中趋好“软着陆”成功——９６中国经济评述郑京平ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｅａｕｔｈｏｒｍａｋｅｓｃｏｍｍｅｎｔｓｏｎｔｈｅｓｔａｔｕｓｏｆＣｈｉｎａ＇ｓｎａｔｉｏｎａｌｅｃｏｎｏｍｙｉｎ１９９６ａｎｄｐｅｒｓｐｅｃｔｉｖｅｆｏｒｔｈｅｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｓ...     

中国制造还具有劳动力成本优势吗

本文利用2002-2011年的制造业数据核算比较了中国与主要竞争国家的制造业单位劳动力成本,发现我国单位劳动力成本已经高于印尼、泰国和马来西亚等东南亚国家。具体地,东部地区单位劳动力成本2002年以后高于印尼,2007年超过我国中西部地区和泰国,2011年超过马来西亚;中西部地区单位劳动力成本2002年以后高于印尼,2009年超过泰国,2011年超过马来西亚,主要原因在于我国小时劳动力成本上升过快。因而,与印尼、泰国、马来西亚等东南亚国家相比,我国已不具有劳动力成本优势,再加上近年来我国人口红利的消失,中西部地区劳动力成本也已高于东南亚国家,因而,可以解释我国中西部地区为何没能及时接收东部地区的产业转移。     

The population policy of the USSR

Developments in population policy in the USSR are outlined in this editorial. Mention is made of achievements in lowering mortality, particularly in the 1950s and 1970s. Recently adopted pro-natalist measures are described, and the results are stated to ba a rise in the birth rate in 1983 that was sustained in 1984 and 1985. Attention is also given to policies designed to encourage labor migration in response to labor shortages in some regions.     

得失与启示：我国统计学博士学位论文选题统计分析

 统计学博士是统计科研的中坚力量之一,其博士论文在一定程度上反映了当时我国统计学科研的热点和前沿,代表着我国统计教育的先进水平。本文通过对1987-2009年509篇统计学博士学位论文的选题及其研究内容进行统计,分析其变动规律和特点,总结选题的得失与启示,为今后科学选题以及进一步深入开展统计学术研究提供参考依据。     

收入增长、收入波动与城镇居民财产积累

本文根据1995年和2002年住户调查数据,讨论了居民收入增长、收入波动以及住户特征对于城镇居民财产积累的影响。本文发现在1995年的家庭财产持有行为中已经具有明显的预防性动机,收入波动对于家庭的财产积累行为具有重要影响,而2002年中这种效应则有所下降。城镇居民在这一期间持有财产数量的增长主要是由收入增长所解释。此外,预防性动机在整个财产分布中的变化趋势在两个年份中是相反的,1995年财产分布低分位点钟具有更强的预防性动机,而2002年则相反,预防性动机随着财产分布分位点的上升而增强。如果控制收入、收入波动以及生命周期等储蓄性因素,户主特征对于财产积累的解释作用非常有限。     

Influence of behavioural tactics on recruitment and reproductive trajectory in the kittiwake

Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions     

Influence of behavioural tactics on recruitment and reproductive trajectory in the kittiwake

Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions     

Nineteenth and early twentieth century statistics: Some New Zealand connections

William Stanley Jevons published his statistical analysis of the climate of Australia and New Zealand, in 1858. Florence Nightingale advised Sir George Grey to collect statistics on M a ori health. Frederick William Frankland published a significant study of mortality in New Zealand, in 1882; and in 1890 George Hogben pioneered the application of statistics to seismology. These people all contributed to statistical knowledge in New Zealand, but were not New Zealanders. Earnest Rutherford, Leslie John Comrie and Alexander Craig Aitken were born and educated in New Zealand, but they worked mainly in the UK. In 1911 Rutherford made very effective use of statistics in discovering the nuclear structure of atoms; in 1937 Comrie pioneered the use of punched-card machinery for large-scale statistical analysis; and Aitken did very important work in mathematical statistics.     

Fertility in Poland during the 1980s: analysis of a maternity questionnaire

Recent fertility trends in Poland are analyzed using data from a mail survey conducted in 1984. The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of women who gave birth in 1984, their husbands, and their parents are examined. The results show an increase in fertility in the early 1980s, particularly in urban areas.     

Publication Delay in Iranian Scholarly Journals

Scholarly periodicals in Iran are considered main information resources in the development of knowledge in scholarly areas. About 566 periodicals have publication licenses from the Commission of Scholarly Periodicals Evaluation of Ministry of Science, Research & Technology (MSRT), with sixty-eight published in English. This paper studies the publication delay of twenty-six Iranian scholarly periodicals which are published in Persian in Iran, not those Iranian journals which are published in English in Iran or out of the country. The peer review and scholarly publication processes in Iranian journals are quite lengthy and need improvement. There was no significant relationship between publication delay in Persian scholarly periodicals and their impact factor as presented by the Islamic World Science Citation Center (titled ISC). Finally, the authors offer some solutions for improving the publication system of Iranian scholarly journals and decreasing the publication interval of these journals.     

中国省际资本边际报酬估算

 资本边际报酬是决定投资和资本配置的重要因素。本文利用中国省际宏观数据,估算了1990-2006年中国各省的资本边际报酬。结果显示,我国各省、直辖市的资本边际报酬呈现出东部沿海地区较高,而中西部地区较低的状况。同时,部分较落后地区的资本边际报酬不断增加,甚至已经超过了大部分沿海省份,而沿海省份的资本边际报酬增长趋势不再明显,很多省份呈现持平甚至下降趋势。这一结果说明,我国固定资本投资极不平衡的现象与中国省际的资本边际报酬估算结果是一致的,但是根据资本边际报酬的变化趋势,该问题在今后或许可以得到缓解。