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1.
In two experiments conducted with low-income participants, we find that individuals are more likely to buy state lottery tickets
when they make several purchase decisions one-at-a-time, i.e. myopically, than when they make one decision about how many
tickets to purchase. These results extend earlier findings showing that “broad bracketing” of decisions encourages behavior
consistent with expected value maximization. Additionally, the results suggest that the combination of myopic decision making
and the “peanuts effect”—greater risk seeking for low stakes than high stakes gambles—can help explain the popularity of state
lotteries.
相似文献
George LoewensteinEmail: |
2.
Matthew E. Kahn 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(1):17-43
Unexpected events such as environmental catastrophes capture wide public attention. Soon after five major shocks—Three Mile
Island, Love Canal, Bhopal, Chernobyl, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill—Congress voted on new risk regulation. This paper conducts
an event study to test whether individual congressional representatives were “shocked” by these environmental disasters into
increasing their probability of voting in favor of risk legislation. On average, representatives were less likely to vote
in favor of bills tied to these five events. Significant heterogeneity in representatives’ responses to these shocks is documented.
Liberal Northeast representatives were most likely to increase their pro-environment voting in the aftermath of these shocks.
相似文献
Matthew E. KahnEmail: |
3.
We study optimal investment in self-protection of insured individuals when they face interdependencies in the form of potential
contamination from others. If individuals cannot coordinate their actions, then the positive externality of investing in self-protection
implies that, in equilibrium, individuals underinvest in self-protection. Limiting insurance coverage through deductibles
or selling “at-fault” insurance can partially internalize this externality and thereby improve individual and social welfare.
相似文献
Howard KunreutherEmail: |
4.
We develop and test a model which links information acquisition decisions to the hedonic utility of information. Acquiring
and attending to information increases the psychological impact of information (an impact effect), increases the speed of adjustment for a utility reference-point (a reference-point updating effect), and affects the degree of risk aversion towards randomness in news (a risk aversion effect). Given plausible parameter values, the model predicts asymmetric preferences for the timing of resolution of uncertainty:
Individuals should monitor and attend to information more actively given preliminary good news but “put their heads in the
sand” by avoiding additional information given adverse prior news. We test for such an “ostrich effect” in a finance context,
examining the account monitoring behavior of Scandinavian and American investors in two datasets. In both datasets, investors
monitor their portfolios more frequently in rising markets than when markets are flat or falling.
相似文献
Duane SeppiEmail: |
5.
Several models of decision-making imply systematic violations of transitivity of preference. Our experiments explored whether
people show patterns of intransitivity predicted by regret theory and majority rule. To distinguish “true” violations from
those produced by “error,” a model was fit in which each choice can have a different error rate and each person can have a
different pattern of true preferences that need not be transitive. Error rate for a choice is estimated from preference reversals
between repeated presentations of that same choice. Our results showed that very few people repeated intransitive patterns.
We can retain the hypothesis that transitivity best describes the data of the vast majority of participants.
相似文献
Michael H. BirnbaumEmail: |
6.
Rachel Baker Susan Chilton Michael Jones-Lee Hugh Metcalf 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(2):125-138
This article examines the nature of the restrictions on the underlying social welfare function that would appear to be required
in order to justify the application of a “common” Value of Statistical Life (VSL) for any particular hazard within a given
society and considers the way in which the magnitude of this common VSL might relate to the values actually employed in practice.
The article also considers the question of whether, by contrast, discounts or premia might legitimately be applied to the
VSL in order to take account of factors such as age or current exposure to risk and explores the form that such discounts
or premia might reasonably take.
相似文献
Hugh MetcalfEmail: |
7.
8.
Prospect theory for continuous distributions 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We extend the original form of prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky from finite lotteries to arbitrary probability distributions,
using an approximation method based on weak-⋆ convergence. The resulting formula is computationally easier than the corresponding
formula for cumulative prospect theory and makes it possible to use prospect theory in future applications in economics and
finance. Moreover, we suggest a method how to incorporate a crucial step of the “editing phase” into prospect theory and to
remove in this way the discontinuity of the original model.
相似文献
Mei Wang (Corresponding author)Email: |
9.
George Van Houtven Melonie B. Sullivan Chris Dockins 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(2):179-199
Many studies estimate individuals’ values for avoiding fatality risks; however, most value-of-statistical-life studies focus
on accident-related deaths. Consequently, little is known about preferences for avoiding other fatal risks, such as cancer.
Cancer may engender strong feelings of dread, leading to a “cancer premium,” but cancer latency periods may have the opposite
effect. Using a national survey, we elicit relative preferences for avoiding fatal cancer and auto-accident risks. We find
strong preferences for avoiding cancer risks. With a 5-year latency, they are valued roughly three times greater than immediate
accident risks, declining to 50% greater for a 25-year latency.
相似文献
George Van HoutvenEmail: |
10.
Anna Alberini Stefania Tonin Margherita Turvani Aline Chiabai 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(2):155-178
We use conjoint choice questions to investigate the preferences of people in four cities in Italy for income and future/permanent
mortality risk reductions delivered by contaminated site remediation policies. The VSL is €5.6 million for an immediate risk
reduction. If the risk reduction takes place 20 years from now, the implied VSL is €1.26 million. Respondents’ implicit discount
rate is 7%. The VSL depends on respondent characteristics, familiarity with contaminated sites, concern about the health effects
of exposure to toxicants, having a family member with cancer, perceived usefulness of public programs and beliefs about the
goals of government remediation programs.
相似文献
Anna AlberiniEmail: |
11.
The value of mortality risk reductions in Delhi,India 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Soma Bhattacharya Anna Alberini Maureen L. Cropper 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(1):21-47
We interviewed commuters in Delhi, India, to estimate their willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce their risk of dying in road
traffic accidents in three scenarios that mirror the circumstances under which traffic fatalities occur in Delhi. The WTP
responses are internally valid: WTP increases with the size of the risk reduction, income, and exposure to road traffic risks,
as measured by length of commute and whether the respondent drives a motorcycle. As a result, the value of a statistical life
(VSL) varies across groups of beneficiaries. For the most highly-exposed individuals the VSL is about 150,000 Purchasing Power
Parity (PPP) dollars.
相似文献
Maureen L. CropperEmail: |
12.
Dinky Daruvala 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(3):265-283
This paper reports results from an economic experiment where respondents are asked to make choices between risky outcomes
for themselves and others. We investigate whether subjects’ own risk preferences and gender stereotypes are reflected in the
predictions they make for the risk preferences of others and the way this occurs. When predicting other people’s risk preferences,
the respondents tend to use a combination of their own risk preferences and stereotypes. Moreover, when making risky choices
for others, the respondents generally use a combination of their own risk preferences and their average predicted risk preference
of the targeted group.
相似文献
Dinky DaruvalaEmail: |
13.
Adeline Delavande 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(1):43-82
This paper develops a new metric to measure revisions to subjective expectations and proposes a survey design strategy that
enables the estimation of the metric. As an application, I analyze how women update their ex pectations about the effectiveness
of contraception methods. The women interviewed exhibit substantial heterogeneity in the way they revise their expectations
with receipt of the same information. When relating the heterogeneity in the updating process to observable characteristics,
I find that schooling, having a regular sexual partner and knowledge and use of birth control methods have a large impact
on the revision process about the effectiveness of contraceptives.
相似文献
Adeline DelavandeEmail: |
14.
Can ranking techniques elicit robust values? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper reports two experiments which examine the use of ranking methods to elicit ‘certainty equivalent’ values. It investigates
whether such methods are able to eliminate the disparities between choice and value which constitute the ‘preference reversal
phenomenon’ and which thereby pose serious problems for both theory and policy application. The results show that ranking
methods are vulnerable to distorting effects of their own, but that when such effects are controlled for, the preference reversal
phenomenon, previously so strong and striking, is very considerably attenuated.
相似文献
Graham LoomesEmail: |
15.
Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively
estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional
on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments.
In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the individual level, subjective beliefs provide information
in addition to the estimated objective probabilities in predicting actual events, which may arise from the effect of past
or anticipated decisions on these beliefs.
相似文献
Frank SloanEmail: |
16.
Many decisions require tradeoffs over time and in the presence of risk. To examine interactions between risk and intertemporal
effects we developed a laboratory experiment. In the experiment, subjects choose between payoffs that take place at different
points in time. We find that very few subjects are consistently risk averse or risk loving. Instead, we find that subjects
are less patient in the presence of risk. We also find that increased risk decreases subjects’ patience levels. However, we
do not find evidence that the effect of risk on the intertemporal decision depends on the length of the temporal delay.
相似文献
Lisa R. AndersonEmail: |
17.
Laura Schechter 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(1):67-76
Rabin (Econometrica 68(5):1281–1292, 2000) argues that, under expected-utility, observed risk aversion over modest stakes implies extremely high risk aversion over
large stakes. Cox and Sadiraj (Games Econom. Behav. 56(1):45–60, 2006) have replied that this is a problem of expected-utility of wealth, but that expected-utility of income does not share that
problem. We combine experimental data on moderate-scale risky choices with survey data on income to estimate coefficients
of relative risk aversion using expected-utility of consumption. Assuming individuals cannot save implies an average coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.92. Assuming they can decide
between consuming today and saving for the future, a realistic assumption, implies quadruple-digit coefficients. This gives
empirical evidence for narrow bracketing.
相似文献
Laura SchechterEmail: |
18.
The paper reports the results of a survey designed to elicit probability judgements for different types of events: ‘pure chance’
events, for which objective probabilities can be calculated; ‘public’ events, about which there may be some discussion in
social groups and the media; and ‘personal’ events, such as those relating to crime or accidental injury. Even among respondents
deemed to be ‘well-calibrated’ in the domain of pure chance events we find limited sensitivity to the ‘temporal scope’ of
public and personal events—this being especially marked for personal events. We discuss possible reasons and some implications
for policy-related survey work.
相似文献
Graham LoomesEmail: |
19.
Individuals’ perception of their own road-traffic and overall mortality risks are examined in this paper. Perceived risk is
compared with the objective risk of the respondents’ peers, i.e. their own gender and age group, and the results suggest that
individuals’ risk perception of their own risk is biased. For road-traffic risk we obtain similar results to what have been
found previously in the literature, overassessment and underassessment among low- and high-risk groups, respectively. For
overall risk we find that all risk groups underestimate their risk. The results also indicate that men's risk bias is larger
than women’s.
相似文献
Henrik AnderssonEmail: |
20.
Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper reports the results of experiments designed to test whether individuals and groups abide by monotonicity with respect
to first-order stochastic dominance and Bayesian updating when making decisions under risk. The results indicate a significant
number of violations of both principles. The violation rate when groups make decisions is substantially lower, and decreasing
with group size, suggesting that social interaction improves the decision-making process. Greater transparency of the decision
task reduces the violation rate, suggesting that these violations are due to judgment errors rather than the preference structure.
In one treatment, however, less complex decisions result in a higher error rates.
相似文献
Edi KarniEmail: |