SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Exploring high saving rates in China： an analysis based on the 1992-2003 China flow of funds accounts

本文以国家统计局公布的1992—2003年中国资金流量表为基础，从收入分配和部门储蓄倾向两个方面对居民、企业和政府等国内三个部门的储蓄率进行了比较分析。我们发现，尽管居民部门的储蓄率最高，但是，自1992年以来，它实际上呈逐步下降趋势，其主要原因在于居民部门获得的劳动报酬、财产收入和再分配收入均有所下降；企业储蓄率呈现缓缓上升趋势，主要原因并不在于企业盈利能力的提高，而在于其主要支出——对居民部门的劳动报酬支出和利息支出长期被稳定在较低的水平上；政府储蓄率在经历了上个世纪的低位徘徊之后，于2000年以后急剧上升，其主要原因在于，通过初次分配和再分配，政府的可支配收入在国民收入的分配中占据了越来越大的份额，同时政府部门的储蓄倾向也在不断提高。本文的政策建议是：为了实现以提高国内消费率为核心的经济发展战略，我国的经济运行应全面转向以改善收入分配结构、提高居民收入为重点的轨道上。为达此目的，加速财政政策向公共财政转型，增加公共支出和对居民的福利支出，在提高劳动生产率的基础上提高企业对劳动者的支付水平，应成为今后我国宏观调控的长期任务。     

东欧的私有化方案:西方经验不适用

私有化改善经济效益的功能“私有化”意味着国家对公司活动影响的减少。除此之外,再没有普遍为人们接受的关于“私有化”的定义。这一术语通常是指原来由国家开办的企业转到私人部门。实现这种转变的方式是把国家的经济实体转为股份公司,再把股票卖给机构或个人。这样做的同时可以配合采取(也可能不采取)某些能够提高竞争性的措施,而国营公司往往是法定的垄断者。这一术语也被用来概括国家机构在很大程度上对市场的利用,如与私人签订合同,由其     

经济政策不确定性、国民储蓄率及其异质性分析

作为新兴经济体的代表,中国储蓄率位居世界前列。本文基于1998—2019年全球16个主要经济体的动态面板数据,采用Baker.S等学者测算的经济政策不确定性指数为核心解释变量,在控制少儿抚养比等变量的基础上,构建双向固定效应模型和系统GMM模型,深入分析经济政策不确定性对国民储蓄率的影响。实证研究发现,经济政策不确定性和国民储蓄率存在显著正向关系,并且在不同收入水平国家存在明显的异质性特征。当前,在世界经济深度调整背景下,如何对国内宏观经济政策进行合理化设计,烫平由于国际贸易争端与疫情冲击带来的经济波动,从需求侧引导国内居民理性配置储蓄与消费比例,拉动国内经济有序增长,成为各国急需解决的现实问题。     

一般信任模式的跨部门差异及其中介机制: 基于2010年中国综合社会调查的研究

本文基于“市场”与“国家再分配”两种不同制度环境的讨论，利用中国综合社会调查2010年的数据，运用倾向值匹配方法处理潜在的选择性误差，考察了不同部门中个体的一般信任水平。结果显示，相比私有部门（外资企业和私营企业），在公共部门中工作的个体呈现了更高的一般信任水平。进一步的分析表明，政治参与水平和相对剥夺感作为中介于工作部门与一般信任水平之间的解释机制是显著的，在公共部门中工作的个体不仅在态度上对内在政治效能感有更高的认定，而且也能积极参与居委会社区的选举。这些特征极大提升了他们的一般信任水平。此外，公共部门中的个体在社会地位与经济地位上所持有的较低的相对剥夺感也有助于其建立更高的一般信任水平。     

"经济人"假说的演变及其现实意义

自亚当·斯密提出“经济人”假说,至今已历时二百余年,期间“经济人”假说不断发展,逐渐由“传统经济人”演变为“新经济人”。“经济人”假说和“看不见的手”理论共同支撑着经济学大厦的发展。本文在对“经济人”假说进行综述的基础上,结合其演变,进一步阐明“经济人”假说对建设社会主义市场经济体制、建设和谐社会和良好人际关系的理论和现实意义。     

希拉里好莱坞新宠

从国务卿位置上退下来的希拉里,出镜率不降反升： 在华府,希拉里应邀与美国总统奥巴马在白宫共进午餐。这是二人首次单独聚餐,而且是在奥巴马私人餐厅的一次“闭门会晤”。虽然白宫发言人将7月29日的这次会面称为“朋友小聚”,但两个人在餐桌上谈了什么顿让人好奇。     

SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Who is the predator,who the prey？ --an analysis of changes in the state of China＇s national income distribution

本文以2004年经济普查后修订的资金流量表为基础，依次从国民收入的初次分配和再分配两个阶段，分析了1992—2005年期间我国国民收入在企业、政府和居民三部门之间分配格局的变化，重点讨论了自1996年以来居民收入占比下降的原因。在分析初次分配格局时，本文将每个部门的初次分配收入占比表示为各要素分配份额按各要素收入中该部门所占比重加权得到的加权平均值。利用这一表示方式，我们校正了资金流量表中的要素分配份额，重新计算了1993—2005年间的国民收入分配格局，并推算了2006和2007年的国民收入分配格局。测算结果表明，居民部门在全国可支配收入中的占比在1996年达到最高，此后逐年降低，截止N2005年，总共下降了12．72个百分点。在初次分配和再分配阶段，居民部门分别下降了10．71和2．01个百分点。与之相对应，企业和政府部门在初次分配中的占比分别上升了7．49和3．21个百分点；在再分配阶段，居民和企业部门收入占比都下降，由此导致政府部门进一步上升3．17个百分点。我们还发现，国民收入的要素分配中劳动收入占比下降和财产收入占比下降，是居民部门在国民收入初次分配中占比下降的两个主要原因。在2005—2007年间，主要受生产水净额占比上升的影响，居民部门在国民收入中占比进一步下降了3个百分点以上．     

试论从“部门行政”向“公共行政”的转型

中国政府管理处于一个从“部门行政”转向“公共行政”的转型期。政府行政改革的基本任务就是尽一切努力弱化“部门行政” ,基本目标就是建立“公共行政”。“部门行政”与“公共行政”是分别以计划经济与市场经济为基础的两种类型的政府管理制度 ,而部门利益是部门行政延续的根源。推动“部门行政”向“公共行政”转型的制度设计思路是 :提高部门“三定”决策的科学化民主化程度 ,力争作到“职权法定” ,杜绝“职权自定” ;加强对行政立法行为的监督 ,有效遏制“部门职权利益化”趋向的发展 ;加快公共财政制度建设 ,阻隔“部门职权利益化”实现的渠道 ;决策与执行合理分开 ,中断部门利益实现的链条 ;贯彻依法治国的基本方略 ,探索党政分开的有效途径。     

中国企业平等问题研究

应当将中国企业平等所取得的成就和所面临的问题放在市场经济取向改革之中加以系统分析。市场经济面前 ,法人企业一律平等。动态地看 ,中国企业平等程度取决于非国有企业比重的不断提高和所有制结构的转变。静态地看 ,中国企业平等程度取决于政府的政策导向以及经济民主与法制的建设     

公共领域的异化:哈贝马斯视域中的"公共性"危机

哈贝马斯对于公共性的关注,是基于近现代的社会背景提出并加以讨论的。从批判功能上说,它被称之为“公共性”;从存在空间上而言,应为“公共领域”(即政治公共领域),它处于私人领域与公共权力领域之间。“公共性”观念不仅具有解释性功能,而且具有批判性功能。由于私人领域的扩展或公共权力领域的膨胀,因而存在这样的发展趋势:公共性过多,公共领域忽视并削弱甚或侵占了私人的权利;公共性过少,公共领域当中秘密日益增多,批评的公共性失去了其原则力量。也就是说,公共领域与私人领域的相互渗透导致社会国家化、国家社会化同时发生,因而公共性处于危机之中。其中,哈贝马斯最为忧虑的便是社会的国家化,因为它将致使公共性原则及其批判功能不断消解致使公共领域异化,真正的公共领域将不复存在。     

I'm OK, You're (Not) OK: The Private Welfare State in the United States

The American welfare state has been premised on the mixture of substantial private, tax‐subsidized benefits rather than on more universalistic public benefits. That pattern is in some ways being undermined as private pension plans are increasingly going bankrupt and firms reduce the benefits they provide employees. On the other hand, however, the current Bush administration is attempting to enhance the private sector role by allowing individuals to invest at least a part of their social insurance contributions into private savings plans. These changes may in the end increase the role of the public sector as a regulator and underwriter at the same time that attempts are made to minimize public sector involvement.     

政府补助与民营企业研发投入

在关于政府研发补助政策对企业研发投入影响效应的争论背景下,本文通过分析第9次全国民营企业抽样调查数据,发现政府研发补助政策对中国民营企业研发投入具有激励效应,但这一效应受到企业决策者、企业资源禀赋结构以及企业环境等企业系统相关属性的影响。本文认为,为了进一步推动企业创新研发活动,政府需要继续改善市场环境,并在补助政策上向那些在企业决策和资源禀赋结构上更趋向于自主研发创新的民营中小企业倾斜。     

Rules rather than discretion: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina

This paper explores options for programs to be put in place prior to a disaster to avoid large and often poorly-managed expenditures following a catastrophe and to provide appropriate protection against the risk of those large losses which do occur. The lack of interest in insurance protection and mitigation by property owners and by public sector agencies prior to a disaster often creates major problems following a catastrophic event for victims and the government. Property owners who suffer severe damage may not have the financial resources easily at hand to rebuild their property and hence will demand relief. The government is then likely to respond with costly but poorly targeted disaster assistance. To avoid these large and often uneven ex post expenditures, we consider the option of mandatory comprehensive private disaster insurance with risk-based rates. It may be more efficient to have an ex ante public program to ensure coverage of catastrophic losses and to subsidize low income residents who cannot afford coverage rather than the current largely ex post public disaster relief program.     

But is it ‘Fair'? The UK Coalition Government, ‘Fairness’ and the ‘Reform’ of Public Sector Pensions

The article analyses arguments for reform of public sector pension schemes by the UK Coalition government on the grounds that existing provision is ‘unfair’. Three dimensions of ‘fairness’ are discussed. That between public and private sector provision; between the costs to public sector employees and other taxpayers; and between members of public sector schemes. The article argues that there are serious weaknesses in the Coalition position on each of these dimensions of ‘fairness’. It suggests that these weaknesses are rooted in the discussion of public sector pensions in isolation from the overall pattern of occupational pension provision in the UK and that a more satisfactory analysis requires reference to principles of distributive justice.     

Economic Determinants of Voting in an Era of Union Decline*

Objective. The objective of this article is to test competing hypotheses regarding union vote effects by economic sector. Overlooked in existing research on political participation and the labor movement is de‐unionization's sectoral dimension: declining union rolls is a private‐sector phenomenon. The sectoral dimension of union decline carries important political consequences if the influence of unions on voter turnout varies by sector. Method. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) November Voting and Registration Supplements for all national elections between 1984 and 2006, I estimate union vote effects for public‐ and private‐sector employees. Results. The results of the analyses reveal that while union members continue to vote at higher rates than otherwise similar nonmembers, the union effect is nearly three times as large for private‐sector members: private‐sector unionists have a predicted probability of voting 6.7 points higher than nonmembers, while public‐sector members have a predicted probability of voting only 2.4 points higher than nonmembers. Conclusions. Given the small fraction of private‐sector workers now in labor unions, recent fluctuations in the unionization rate have little aggregate affect on turnout. Given that private‐sector union members tend to be less educated and earn less than their public‐sector counterparts, the near disappearance of private‐sector unions from the economic landscape removes an important institutional buffer against political inequality in the United States.     

The redistributive effect of public and private social programmes: A cross‐country empirical analysis

A function of many national social protection systems is to substantially redistribute income. However, the size and nature of social protection programmes are changing. In a number of countries there has been a shift from public towards private social protection arrangements, with the latter substituting for, or complementing, public programmes. Developing earlier work, this present article analyses the redistributive impact on income of public versus private social protection programmes. Using recent data from the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, we find a strong positive relationship between public social expenditures and income redistribution across countries. For private social expenditures, we find a weak, but statistically significant, negative relationship with the level of redistribution. In countries where a larger share of total social expenditure is accorded to private arrangements there is less income redistribution. We conclude that the choice between the relative weight of public and private provision of social protection affects the redistributive impact of the welfare state.     

Wagner’s law vs. Keynes’ hypothesis in very different countries (Armenia and Spain)

There is considerable controversy in the economic literature concerning whether particular government expenditures have an impact on economic growth. This study analyzes the macroeconomic magnitude of government expenditures in Armenia and Spain and evaluates whether there exists a causal relationship between government expenditures and economic growth, and vice versa (Keynes’ hypothesis and Wagner’s law). The study employs the VAR methodology to analyze annual data for the years 1996–2014. By utilizing Granger causality tests, the study reveals whether the government expenditures are a significant factor in economic growth in short-term perspective. Finally, IRF and FEVD tests are applied to estimate the effects of a change in particular government expenditures on GDP for twelve year time horizon. This study validates the hypothesis that, irrespective of size and nature of the economy (Armenia vs. Spain), some public expenditures (e.g. healthcare) positively contribute to the growth of the economy, while social protection in both countries is negatively related to GDP.     

An Agenda for Social Security in the Years Ahead

This paper focuses on recent debates on social welfare spending in Australia, and on social security in particular. Its starting point is the current economic climate and the perceived imperative for continued fiscal restraint. Its central argument is that the welfare debate must be placed firmly in the context of the role of the public sector as a whole. In the social welfare context, government interventions through direct expenditures and tax expenditures must be assessed together, along with the impact of the tax structure on revenue raising potential. The paper questions the virtue of increased reliance on selectivity and presents the case for a more universalist approach.     

An Enhanced Macroeconomic Approach to Long-Range Projections of Health Care and Social Security Expenditures as a Share of GDP

An enhanced two-sector economic growth model is created to project health care and Social Security expenditures as a share of GDP in the United States. Parameters used in the economic simulation model are based largely on consensus views in the literature. The main advantages of an economic model over the more commonly used actuarial models are: (1) explicit specification of underlying fundamental structures, (2) ability to investigate relationships in the entire economy, and (3) a fuller scope provided for policy analysis. Under the base model assumptions, that is, a continuation of current conditions for the production of, demand for, and financing of health care services, the economic model projects that the health care sector consumes 15.8 percent of national output by the year 2000 and 27.1 percent by the year 2040. The annual rate of increase in per capita consumption (less health spending) (“adjusted consumption”) falls from 1 percent in 2000 to 0.6 percent in 2025, and then increases to 0.8 percent in 2040, as the rate of increase in spending on health care for the elderly, and the capital investment required to support such spending, flow and ebb with the passing of the baby boom generation. Over the whole projection horizon, government spending on the health care of the elderly increases from a projected 3.8 percent of GDP in 2000 to 9.2 percent in 2040. Social Security expenditures for the elderly are projected to increase from 3.9 percent to 6.3 percent over the same period. More widespread HMO coverage is shown to lead to some small improvements in adjusted consumption. Over the long horizon, improved efficiency and productivity in the health sector and lower Social Security benefits assumed to cause an increased rate of savings and investment, however, actually cause the rate of growth in health spending to increase and adjusted consumption to decline, ceteris paribus. By contrast, an increase in sensitivity to health care prices leads to dramatically improved results, both in higher adjusted consumption and better finances for government programs of health care for the elderly.