Campaign Fundraising in State Supreme Court Elections*

Objective. What factors affect the ability of candidates for state supreme courts to raise money? In this article, I test (and expand) existing theories of political fundraising (taken largely from legislative studies) in the context of judicial elections. Methods. I examine the determinants of campaign contributions to all candidates running for the state supreme court from 1990–2000 in states that have competitive judicial elections. Most basically, I hypothesize that a candidate's ability to raise money is dependent on characteristics of the candidate, the state electoral and supreme court context, and institutional arrangements. Results. The results suggest that candidates who have a greater probability of success than their opponents are better able to raise money. Yet, all is not within the control of the candidates, as the electoral context of the state and the court as well as the institutional arrangements of the election and the court are also relevant. Conclusions. Campaign fundraising by state supreme court candidates, much like fundraising by legislative candidates, can be understood in systematic and predictable ways. Candidates have some control over the amount of money that they are able to raise (and thus their electoral viability), although there is little they can do about the electoral and supreme court context. Additionally, institutional arrangements play a large role in raising campaign funds, suggesting that there is not much reformers can do to limit the amount of money involved in elections short of eradicating elections altogether.     

Running Against a Woman: Do Female Opponents Shape Male Candidate Behaviors?*

Objective. The male‐dominated nature of U.S. politics still means that the vast majority of women who run for office face a male opponent. As a result, one dramatic change in U.S. politics—the increase in women candidates—may contribute to another change, that being the experience of men who run for office. The research reported here begins to consider how running against a woman might have influenced the behavior of male candidates for Congress in 2002 and 2006. Past research suggests that men who run against women feel that they need to take steps to appeal to women voters by giving attention to issues of concern to women in their campaigns. Methods. To test the hypothesis that men will alter their attention to women's issues in the face of a woman candidate, I use campaign websites to examine the issue priorities of men who ran against women and compare them to a sample of men who ran against other men. Results. Counter to expectations, I find no evidence that men “play” to women voters through their attention to women's issues and instead demonstrate the relatively limited visibility that men give to these issues when they run against a woman. Conclusions. Running against a woman may have some limited impact on male candidate behaviors, but does not appear to be a significant influence.     

The Continuing Dominance of Traditional Gender Roles in Southern Elections*

Objective. Studies of the election of women to public office have been increasingly encouraging about their prospects of female candidates. The purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which gender roles continue to influence the election of women to local office and the pool of candidates for higher office. Methods. Utilizing data on the gender of officials, the nature of the office, and constituency demographics from county elections in eight Southern states, we construct logit models of the election of women. Results. Women hold few local offices involved in fighting crime or of an executive nature. On the other hand, women routinely win election to process‐oriented offices with less discretion. Our analysis of constituency demographics reinforces our conclusions. Women win election in areas where the public office is relatively undesirable compared to other opportunities and the ratio of high‐quality male to high‐quality female candidates is relatively low. Conclusions. Although the frequent election of women to county office provides an expanded pool of female candidates for higher offices, it seems unlikely that women will find it as easy to move up the electoral ladder into the more competitive arena of high‐profile statewide and federal leadership offices.     

The Politics of Hope and Despair: The Effect of Presidential Election Outcomes on Suicide Rates*

Objectives. This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics. Methods. Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed‐effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger. Results. We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate—4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females. Conclusion. Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk.     

Women Running for Judge: The Impact of Sex on Candidate Success in State Intermediate Appellate Court Elections*

Objective. This article will examine whether candidate sex impacts electoral outcomes in judicial elections. Methods. We examine the success of male and female candidates in contested, nonretention elections for state intermediate appellate courts (IACs) from 2000–2006 using OLS and logistic regression analysis. Results. We find that there is no systematic bias against women candidates in IAC races over this period. In fact, there is some evidence that women may actually perform slightly better than men. Conclusions. Contrary to the claims of some scholars, these results suggest judicial elections do not hinder diversity on the state appellate bench.     

Equality of recruitment: Gender parity in French National Assembly elections

This research centers on the effects of the newly mandated gender parity on French electoral politics. We examine the results from the 2002 National Assembly elections. Our findings suggest that this Parity Law contributed to the modest increase in the number of female deputies elected to the National Assembly, but that the electoral success rate for female candidates declined from the previous elections in 1997. This result appears to have been affected by two factors: (1) a greater-than-average number of female candidates were affiliated with the Socialist party—the party that lost control of the government in this election and (2) many female candidates were running against male incumbents. Multivariate analysis suggests that, after these two factors are controlled for, female candidates were more likely to be elected in open seat contests than were male candidates. Preliminary analysis of roll call votes in the two most recent (1997–2004) legislative sessions suggests that party, not gender, is the main determinant of voting behavior.     

Exploring the Gender Gap in Support for a Woman for President

The gender gap in support for a female presidential candidate gathered much media attention with Hillary Clinton as a frontrunner for the 2008 democratic presidential nomination. Two common explanations for this gap are that women have more liberal gender role and political attitudes. We contend that another important, and distinct, factor for heightened support among women is a shared social identity. We tested these three explanations across two studies. In Study 1, hierarchical regression analyses revealed that both attitudes toward women and sex independently predict a significant proportion of the variance in willingness to elect a woman for president. In Study 2, hierarchical regression analyses showed that when entered together, attitudes toward female authority and sex independently predict support, but when political attitudes was entered, only sex and political attitudes predicted support for Clinton. Finally, as expected, when primed with their gender identity, women increased their support for Clinton and men decreased their support, and women perceived her more favorably and men less so. In sum, these studies strongly support the arguments that the gender gap in support for female presidential candidates stems in part from women's more liberal gender role and political attitudes, and also from women sharing the same gender social identity as a female candidate for commander in chief .     

State Parties in the 2000 Senate Elections*

Objective. This article examines state party activity in support of U.S. Senate candidates during the 2000 election. The literature on the service role of parties suggests that national parties will be active in support of candidates, while state parties will be inclined to provide mobilization services. However, state parties are also in a good position to provide campaign contributions and technical services usually supplied by national party organizations. Methods. Focusing on the 2000 elections, I use campaign finance data from the Federal Election Commission as well as original data derived from a survey of the state parties to investigate the relationship between state parties and U.S. Senate candidates. Results. The results indicate not only that state parties were remarkably active in support of U.S. Senate candidates, but also that Republican state parties appeared to better target their support to more deserving candidates than did Democratic state parties. Closer scrutiny, however, reveals that the Democrats, by using state party organizations as the conduit of coordinated expenditures, were more successful in providing resources to candidates who would win. Conclusions. Although much of the activity of state party organizations is explained by money transfers from national party organizations, it is the transfer of hard money that accounts for state party activity in U.S. Senate campaigns. This brings into question the impact of recent campaign finance reforms on the relationship between state parties and U.S. Senate candidates.     

基层选举中村民的信息接受环境与心理

在选举活动中,村民既是选举权的主体,也是选举活动的主体。对于政府来说,政府需要向村民传播选举意义,说服和鼓励村民行使投票权;对于候选人来说,候选人需要根据村民的信息接受心理,开展有针对性的说服传播,才有可能使自己当选。基层选举中,要尊重村民的信息接受心理,把消极的村民变为积极的村民,进而推动村民选举的正常发展。     

Gender Jeopardy: What is the Impact of Gender Differences in Political Knowledge on Political Participation?*

Objective. We explore whether observed sex‐based differences in political knowledge have an impact on men's and women's participation in six different political activities. Methods. Utilizing ANES data from the five presidential elections between 1984 and 2000, we employ logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of voting, influencing a vote, attending a political meeting, working on a political campaign, wearing a political button, and making a campaign donation. Results. At lower levels of political knowledge, women's lower political knowledge depresses their participation in politics. The participation gap disappears at higher levels of political knowledge for three participatory acts: attempting to influence a vote, attending a political meeting, and donating to a political campaign. Furthermore, at higher levels of political knowledge, women are more likely than men to vote, wear a political button, or work for political campaigns. Conclusion. Our analysis reveals that political knowledge differentially affects men's and women's political participation. These findings complement existing scholarship that finds women hold themselves to a higher standard before engaging in political activities such as running for elected office.     

Fusion ballots as a candidate-centered reform: Evidence from Oregon

This article argues that fusion balloting, or the ability of multiple parties to nominate a single candidate for office, can be viewed as a candidate-centered and incumbent-oriented reform. Using the recent passage of fusion legislation in Oregon in 2009 and its subsequent use in 2010 state legislative elections as a test case, I study the factors behind supporting fusion legislation in both chambers of the state legislature and how these same factors affected, or did not affect, the incumbents that received cross-nominations in the 2010 elections. Overall, I find that party did not play a direct role in determining which legislators supported fusion, though female legislators were less supportive. When it came to obtaining nominations, the main finding is that incumbent candidates who voted yes to fusion were generally more likely to receive nominations. Still, legislators from the group that most opposed fusion, Democratic women, attempted to win cross-nominations once the 2010 elections approached. These findings suggest that candidate factors, more than party dictates, affected support for fusion and the ability of incumbents to receive cross-endorsements. Thus, the willingness of major-party candidates to adopt fusion can be understood through theories of candidate-centered elections and political parties.     

Immigration in the 2008 Virginia presidential election: A cultural issue remains puissant despite an economic crisis

In 2006 and 2007, many analysts expected that immigration would be one of the top domestic issues in the 2008 campaign. However, in the 2008 presidential general election, immigration issues were never a major topic between candidates John McCain and Barack Obama. This was partially because McCain has more moderate views toward immigration reform than the passionate anti-immigration faction of the Republican Party. Prior research suggests that an issue in a presidential campaign can remain influential even when the media and campaigns are not discussing or addressing the issue, even when the candidates or parties do not differ greatly on the issue. In a survey of Virginia residents conducted just before the November election, immigration attitudes were a differential factor between McCain and Obama.     

Lies,Damned Lies,and Campaign Promises? Environmental Legislation in the 105th Congress*

Objective. The extent to which candidates for elected office keep their campaign promises holds great interest for citizens and has important consequences for the quality of democracy. However, we know very little about whether candidates actually keep these promises. This article examines the relationship between campaign promises and the subsequent legislative behavior of members of Congress in the area of environmental protection. Methods. Responses to the 1996 National Political Awareness Test (NPAT) are matched with roll‐call data on environmental issues from the 105th Congress. A series of bivariate probit models with selection are then used to assess the extent to which roll‐call votes are consistent with candidate policy statements in the NPAT. Results. We find that members of Congress vote consistent with their campaign promises 73 percent of the time, and that NPAT responses help to predict roll‐call votes even when controlling for party, race, gender, campaign contributions, and previous environmental voting record. We also find that the propensity to keep campaign promises varies systematically across types of legislators. Conclusions. Contrary to public perceptions, candidates for Congress routinely act to keep their campaign promises once elected, at least in the area of environmental protection policy.     

Judgments about the capabilities of city councillors and support for female representation on city council

Building on an earlier analysis of this data set, this study investigates the association between respondents' gender-stereotyping of city councillors with respect to work-related capabilities and their support for female representation on city council under conditions of low information. The earlier research found substantial gender-stereotypic bias in respondents' judgments about the office-related capabilities of male and female city council members. This analysis finds that the more positively women's capabilities to perform in office are evaluated, the more support there is for increased female representation on city council. In general, being “qualified” gets a candidate support but being female, for the most part, does not garner additional support. The double bind of this situation, however, is that female candidates are at a disadvantage because voters (in the sample) see men generically as being more able to meet the demands of serving on city council and increased female representation on city council can not occur unless individual female candidates are elected.     

我国妇女发展状况评估——基于家庭领域性别平等指标体系

本文根据我国全面建设小康社会、和谐社会、妇女发展纲要的要求，从国情出发，参照反映家庭领域中性别平等与妇女发展的国际常用指标，尝试构建了家庭领域性别平等与妇女发展的指标体系。运用该指标体系，对我国家庭领域性别平等与妇女发展状况作出评估与分析。研究结果表明，目前我国家庭领域性别平等与妇女发展水平均处于中等发展程度，与健康、教育和经济领域的性别平等与妇女发展水平相比，家庭领域的性别平等与妇女发展还相对滞后，女性在家庭中的传统角色以及男女两性家庭责任分担模式还没有发生根本性的改变。     

Existing Diversity and Judicial Selection: The Role of the Appointment Method in Establishing Gender Diversity in State Supreme Courts

Objectives . To explore differences in the appointment and election method of selecting state high court justices in promoting gender diversity, and to explore the effect of existing gender diversity within the political institutions on the selection of women to office. Methods . Our data include all justices who have been selected to state courts of last resort from 1980 through 1997. We use logistic regression analysis to test the effect of existing gender diversity on a high court on the likelihood that a woman will be selected to fill a vacancy. Results . Women are significantly more likely to be selected to a state high court when initially appointed, and this effect is particularly pronounced when the governor is Democratic. When an appointment system is used, women are much more likely to be appointed to an all-male court than to a gender-diverse court. Conclusions . Appointment systems are more likely to create gender diversity on state courts; however, this effect operates primarily to diversify all-male courts. This difference between appointment and election systems may reflect differences in knowledge between elite actors and the mass public about the composition of the institution.     

Are Immigrants a Drain on the Public Fisc? State and Local Impacts in New Jersey

Objectives . To explore differences in the appointment and election method of selecting state high court justices in promoting gender diversity, and to explore the effect of existing gender diversity within the political institutions on the selection of women to office. Methods . Our data include all justices who have been selected to state courts of last resort from 1980 through 1997. We use logistic regression analysis to test the effect of existing gender diversity on a high court on the likelihood that a woman will be selected to fill a vacancy. Results . Women are significantly more likely to be selected to a state high court when initially appointed, and this effect is particularly pronounced when the governor is Democratic. When an appointment system is used, women are much more likely to be appointed to an all-male court than to a gender-diverse court. Conclusions . Appointment systems are more likely to create gender diversity on state courts; however, this effect operates primarily to diversify all-male courts. This difference between appointment and election systems may reflect differences in knowledge between elite actors and the mass public about the composition of the institution.     

Political information,gender and the vote: the differential impact of organizations,personal discussion,and the media on the electoral decisions of women and men

Although there are many demonstrated ways in which men and women approach politics differently, we know very little about how sources of political information, e.g., mass media, political organizations, differentially influence the vote choices of men and women. Using a rich, contextual dataset containing measures not only of respondent perceptions of political information, but actual content coding of those sources of political information, we estimate how television, newspapers, personal discussants, organizations, and political parties may have impacted the voting of men and women in the 1992 U.S. presidential election. We find that women’s vote choices are more likely than men’s to be influenced by the organizations to which they belong. Women are also more likely to respond to television news with a hostile media bias—they see television newscasts as definitively favoring the candidate that they oppose. We address possible explanations for these patterns of results and point towards directions for additional research.     

Campaign Finance Laws and the Competition for Spending in Gubernatorial Elections*

Objective. The diversity of campaign finance laws in the U.S. states allows the effects of these reforms to be measured. I investigate the impact of contribution limits and public financing on campaign spending in gubernatorial elections. Methods. I conduct a multivariate regression analysis of general election spending in races for governor from 1980 to 2000. I analyze levels of spending per voter, as well as challengers' share of total spending. Results. State contribution limits do not hold down overall spending. Candidate acceptance of public funding and spending limits reduces spending by incumbent governors more than it reduces that of challengers. As for challengers' share of spending, I find that public funding programs improve challengers' ability to match incumbents' spending dollar for dollar. Conclusions. State programs that offer public funding to candidates effectively favor challengers. This points to the potential of these reforms to make federal elections more competitive.     

社会分层与健康不平等的性别差异:基于生命历程的纵向分析

本研究考察在社会分层与性别分层的交互作用下,生命历程中的两个竞争性理论--“累积优势/劣势理论”和“年龄中和效应理论”,哪一个更能解释中国男性和女性所经历的健康不平等。本研究利用“中国健康与营养调查”（CHNS）追踪数据和成长曲线模型发现,性别对社会分层导致的健康不平等及其发展有独特的影响。与男性相比,女性在各个年龄阶段都处于健康劣势,这一劣势是因为女性从教育和收入所获得的健康回报比男性低。此外,女性之间因为教育和收入导致的健康不平等程度随年龄的增长而缩小,男性之间的健康不平等程度并不随年龄的增长而改变,因此,本研究不支持健康不平等的“累积优势/劣势假说”,而是在女性群体中支持“年龄中和效应理论”。