Decision-Making Under Scientific Uncertainty: The Economics of the Precautionary Principle

The Precautionary Principle has provided the foundations for building a new risk regulatory pattern under scientific uncertainty. This paper investigates how classical economic theory may, or may not, justify the Precautionary Principle. It examines the link between irreversibility, the prospect of increasing information over time and risk management. In doing so, it brings closer the notion of option value to that of precaution. Using a general modelling framework, it identifies the conditions so that the Precautionary Principle is an efficient economic guideline. It also explains why precautionary policies are not likely to emerge in a competitive economy or in the presence of a global pollution problem.     

Policy Divergence in Races for the U.S. House of Representatives*

Objective. This article investigates the extent to which opposing candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives adopt differing policy stances and examines explanations for policy divergence. Methods. We use a Congressional Quarterly survey of 1996 House candidates to measure policy divergence on eight issues. We then test explanations for this divergence: party pressures, primaries, third‐party candidates, campaign contributions, candidate preferences, and uncertainty. Results. Primaries, third‐party challenges, and contributions play little role in explaining policy divergence. We find that party and candidate preferences contribute to differences in the policy platforms of opposing candidates while uncertainty weakens the pressure for policy convergence. Conclusion. Imperfect information weakens pressure on candidates to adopt positions favored by the majority of voters in a district. This lack of pressure allows candidates to indulge their personal and party preferences in taking policy stances.     

Presidential Direct Action and Policy Continuity: The Case of U.S. International Population Policy*

Objectives. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze the modern practice of unilateral presidential policy making in the area of U.S. international population policy. The analysis focuses on the implications of this practice in a constitutional system intended to limit and constrain direct presidential action in policy making. Methods. The authors conduct their analysis using a variety of qualitative sources, including leading studies on the topics of presidential direct action and U.S. international population policy, and government documents. Conclusions. Policy development in this area has been marked by dramatic back‐and‐forth shifts due to the modern practice of presidents making many decisions without legislative involvement. Although not the only policy area in which this practice has become the norm, the case study of U.S. international population policy reveals the pitfalls of deviating from the constitutional design of a system of balanced and constrained powers.     

Business Mobilization and Public Policy in the U.S. States*

Objective. The goal of this study is to examine how the political mobilization of business interests influences aggregate public policy outputs in the states. We examine the relationship between business mobilization and general state policy liberalism, as well as policy that we term state “business policy climate.” Methods. We construct a measure of the “business policy climate” from a number of tax and regulatory indicators in the states and examine whether business influences it and policy liberalism using ordinary least squares regression. Results. The analysis shows that business mobilization does not influence general policy liberalism but is a significant influence on a state's business policy climate. Specifically, the dominance of a state's campaign finance system by business interests makes policy more favorable toward business. Conclusions. The extent of business mobilization in a state is an important influence on public policy outputs but is constrained by the activities of other political actors such as unions.     

美国在中日钓鱼岛问题上的政策演变与态势分析

美国是影响钓鱼岛问题的重要外部因素,中日钓鱼岛争端的产生、变化、未来发展趋势与美国有着密切联系。但目前学界对于钓鱼岛问题中美国因素的系统研究尚属薄弱,从美国对外政策的视角来探讨美国与钓鱼岛问题关系的论著则更少。①本文通过考察近二十年来美国在钓鱼岛问题上的政策与实施活动,对其政策演变的过程进行梳理和分析,并在此基础上对其政策发展态势做出研判。     

Ideological Realignment in the Contemporary U.S. Electorate Revisited*

Objective. In this study, we revisit the ideological‐realignment theory proposed by Abramowitz and Saunders (1998) by assessing the varying impact a person's ideology had on his or her partisan identification for individuals in different regions and between men and women. Method. Through an examination of the NES cumulative data file and the 1992–1994 NES Panel Study, we present a series of tabular findings, an OLS regression model, and partial correlation coefficients to assess these changing subgroup dynamics. Results. Between 1978 and 1994, the impact of a person's ideology on his or her party identification grew in magnitude, while the impact of respondents' parental party identification on their own party identification waned. However, these changes were not felt uniformly throughout the electorate, with Southern white males and Southern white females exhibiting the greatest changes. In the case of Southern white males, racial issues now appear to be related to their party identification. Conclusion. We find support for the ideological‐realignment theory, but find evidence that such changes occurred rather unevenly throughout the electorate, suggesting that different dynamics of realignment may be at work simultaneously.     

美国国会与后PNTR时代的美国对华贸易政策

作者首先回顾了美国对外贸易政策的概念、决策过程和美国国会的作用等一般历史与理论问题 ,接着分析了PNTR法的政治含义和国会在后PNTR时代美国对华贸易政策制定中的作用 ,最后讨论了美国对外贸易政策的特点及我们的对策。     

The Impact of Direct Election on Reform Votes in the U.S. Senate*

Objective. This investigation examines the extent to which direct election rendered the U.S. Senate more supportive of Progressive reforms, as indicated through roll‐call outcomes. Methods. Pre‐ and postaggregate support coalitions are compared in a 16‐year period bifurcated by passage of the Seventeenth Amendment (1905–1921), utilizing difference in means and ordinary least squares regression. An alternate test considers the aggregate impact of the rising percentage of states adopting pre‐Amendment direct‐election mechanisms. A difference in means test between Senate and House votes on similar bills is also provided. Results. Neither the Amendment nor the statewide movement toward direct election exerted the conventionally assumed, positive impact on reform support; House and Senate support scores were similar throughout the period. Conclusions. The data suggest a strong pro‐reform tendency in the Senate throughout the timeframe. The probable reason direct election demonstrates so little of the expected impact on outcomes is that the Senate had already begun to move in that direction.     

美国重返亚太背景下的美澳同盟

在美国重返亚太的背景下,美澳同盟得到了进一步强化,其原因包括:从美国的角度看,澳大利亚拥有极佳的战略地理位置,美军急需加强亚太二三线基地群的建设以拓展自己的战略纵深,通过驻军的方式减少澳大利亚"变节"的可能性;从澳大利亚的角度看,出于对中国崛起的不适应,在大幅削减国防预算的情况下需搭美国"便车"以更好地寻求安全庇护,迎合其国内军事战略转移——实施"印-太"战略的需要。本文认为,美澳同盟在美国重返亚太的过程中,虽起到了非常重要的基石、通道、支撑和补充作用,但美澳间依然存在着难以克服的同盟困境。     

近年日本和美国对华政策的差异

二战后日本和美国的对华政策往往被视为一体。近年来,随着中国国力的不断增强,日美两国基于在全球、地区及国家等几个层面的不同战略考量以及各自所处现实和历史的不同,在对华政策上开始出现不甚明显的差异。这种差异在涉及国家利益的诸多方面都有不同程度的表现。相对于对华需求更多而力争合作防范并举的美国,日本表现出更多的消极对抗,从而显示出两国在深层次上对华认识的不同。     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.     

美国核政策调整与国际核不扩散机制的前景

国际核不扩散机制是美国防止核扩散,限制对手核力量以实现自身利益的重要手段,是美国维系其主导的世界核秩序的重要干预变量;而核不扩散机制的内在运行逻辑,也使得美国核政策成为决定该机制发展方向的最主要变量。因此,奥巴马政府核政策的调整,势必对核不扩散机制的维持和发展产生深刻影响。中国是现行核不扩散机制的重要参与方,美国核政策的调整必将通过国际核不扩散机制这一干预变量给中国造成直接或间接影响。     

Social Capital and Fire Service Performance: Evidence from the U.S. States*

Objective. The present study evaluates whether areas with high levels of social capital are likely to have better fire service performance. Method. Utilizing Robert Putnam's 14‐measure index of social capital, OLS regression techniques are applied to objective data on the rate of unintentional fire deaths in the U.S. states between 1980 and 2003. Results. The findings show that social capital is associated with a low unintentional fire death rate, even when controlling for a range of important environmental constraints. However, the effects of social capital vary by its conceptual components. Conclusions. The study supports the argument that social capital is likely to be an important determinant of fire service outcomes, and suggests that the political engagement and social trust components may be the most important focus for public policies seeking to build social capital in order to reduce fire fatalities.     

The Impact of Candidate Sex on Evaluations of Candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives*

Objectives. To examine how voters and the general public evaluate women candidates by examining ideological and issue‐based evaluations of women candidates for the House of Representatives. Methods. Data are drawn from the National Election Study for all U.S. House elections from 1990 to 2000. OLS and logistic regression models examining the role of candidate sex in evaluations are tested. Results. When evaluating Democratic candidates, people see them as more liberal and utilize more female issues in their evaluations when the candidate is a woman. For Republican candidates, candidate sex is much less likely to be related to how people evaluate them. Conclusion. The central role of party in public evaluations of women candidates suggests that the impact of candidate sex on voters is more complex than previous works have suggested.     

Ideological Centrism and the Electoral Fortunes of U.S. Senate Candidates*

Objective. The Downsian model of electoral competition with its individual‐level assumption of proximity voting by individuals implies that candidates in two‐party systems should perform better in elections when they adopt platforms more closely mirroring preferences of average constituents. Since extant analyses do not place candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric, they do not directly test the electoral consequences of proximity to voters. This study provides a direct test. Methods. I use the NES Senate Election Study to locate candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric and use ordinary least squares regression models to analyze the effects of candidate positioning on electoral outcomes. Results. Although stiff electoral competition may make it more likely that candidates gain votes by locating near average citizens, candidate proximity does not generally have a meaningful effect on Senate elections. Conclusions. Insignificant electoral benefits from ideological centrism may help explain candidate divergence in elections and has important implications for the nature of representation.     

The Drug‐Laden Balloon: U.S. Military Assistance and Coca Production in the Central Andes*

Objective. This article explores the empirical effects of U.S. drug policy on coca cultivation in the Central Andes. We assess the impact of U.S. military assistance on the production of coca in the Central Andes, while controlling for other explanatory variables that influence coca cultivation. Method. Using data from 1980–2001 for Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru, we perform a pooled cross‐sectional time‐series analysis. Results. The effects of U.S. military assistance on coca cultivation are not uniform across the Central Andes. Coca production decreased in Bolivia and Peru and increased in Colombia. Total coca production in the Central Andes, however, remained unchanged. Conclusion. This study is consistent with existing literature that points out the obstacles governments face as they attempt to suppress illicit goods. Specifically, our empirical findings support the idea of the “balloon effect,” whereby government efforts to “squeeze” illicit trade in one area result in the expansion of that trade elsewhere.