统计学划属理学不妥

教育部公布的《普通高等学校本科专业目录》中，将统计学划届理学门类下的二级类，我认为值得商榷。一、与统计学学科性质相停统计学是用一套特有的统计思维逻辑来认识现象总体的数量规律性的学科。这个统计思维逻辑就是将所研究的现象视为一个由大量个体组成的总体，运用统计归纳的逻辑方法，通过对现象个体的大量观察，得出关于现象总体的数量特征和数量关系。只要揭示现象的数量规律性是以通过现象个体的大量观察为逻辑起点，这样的现象就都可视为统计学的研究对象。因此，统计学的研究对象是大量存在的，甚至是无所不包的。既有自然现象…     

论经济统计研究的质量结合特征

经济统计分析介于“数理分析”和“逻辑思辩分析”之间，是一种“质量结合”的经验分析方法，在西方经济学界，以密契尔、库兹涅茨为代表的经济统计学派，就其研究方法而言，主要属于“经济统计研究”的范畴。在我国，经济统计在建国后得到长足发展，研究力量不断壮大，经...     

统计课中几种教学方法的综合运用

适应素质教育讲究教学方法。统计课教学的逻辑思想定位于统计工作过程。要善于捕捉学生兴奋点 ,归纳统计知识的规律性 ,同时可尝试模拟“内部教学营销”的教学方法。     

改革畜牧业统计方法

随着市场经济体制的不断完善，几十年延袭下来的畜牧业统计方法制度已越来越不能适应两个根本性转变的要求，因此，改革畜牧业统计方法制度刻不容缓。一、现行畜牧业统计方法制度存在的弊端1、指标多、填报单位多、汇总级别多，统计报表逻辑平衡关系繁琐。多少年来，我们一直采用由户到村民小组、村民小组到村、村到乡镇、乡镇到旗县区、旗县区到市……的多级别逐级汇总方式，众多的统计指标、填报单位及纵横交错复杂的报表逻辑平衡关系，使得基层统计人员不得不占用大量的时间忙于搜集整理资料和进行数据处理，很难对统计数据的来源进行质…     

中国资源环境统计指标体系框架设计

文章从资源环境指标体系的基本理论和方法依据出发，总结和借鉴国外先进经验，以中国现有资源环境统计指标为基础，按照一定的逻辑方式组合资源环境统计指标体系的基本框架。整个指标体系包括三个主题：资源、环境、生态，提出资源类指标体系应以“供给-消费-效率”为内在逻辑，而环境类和生态类指标体系应以“压力-状态-响应”为内在逻辑，整个指标体系在具体指标设计上采用两级模式，既简约又全面。     

统计方法制度应迅速适应经济发展需要

统计方法制度应迅速适应经济发展需要□文／吴县市统计局龚忠启纵观我国的统计方法制度，从总体讲还是属于为计划经济服务的模式。然而随着我国市场经济的建立与发展，经济所有制的不断改革及深入，现行的统计方法制度越来越显示出它的适应性或者日益严重滞后于经济发展的...     

结构相对数动态变化类型及其统计检验

本文对动态相对数动态变化的类型进行了归纳，提出了相应的统计检验方法，并应用此方法分析我国三次产业演变规律。发现改革开放以来我国三次产业演变有服务化的趋势。     

统计教育的发展与展望：中国高校统计案例教学研讨会综述

本文归纳了统计案例教学的特点与作用，讨论了统计案例教学组织中的具体形式和可能遇到的问题，在此基础上，分析了统计教育发展的未来方向和发展前景。     

企业虚假统计诊断的方法

企业虚假统计诊断的方法１．校核法。是指对原始记录与统计报表，报表与台帐的校核；或统计、会计、业务核算的原始记录、报表与台帐的校核，从中发现统计数字弄虚作假行为的方法。２．逻辑关系法。其主要内容是：（ｌ）审查一种报表内数据之间是否符合逻辑；（２）数字近...     

统计文化就是统计人格文化

统计可以是一种行为，一个职业，一类技能，一样方法，一门科学……统计在社会视野和思维里占据着如此宽泛的地位，当然统计可以归纳成为一种文化，统计文化。什么是文化?学者余秋雨先生提到《中国文化史》中关于文化的概念有182种，提到荣格(瑞士人，著名心理学家，早期研究中国文化的两方著名学者)的一句话：“一切文化，最后都沉淀为人格。”     

杰弗里统计思想的形成及其特征

本文比较全面地介绍了哈罗德?杰弗里的统计思想的形成及其特征,包括他对演绎推理局限性的看法、他的概率观点、他所提“简化式推理”的重要意义,等等;这对于理解杰弗里统计思想何以能对当代统计学及相关学科产生重大影响有一定的帮助。     

A knowledge acquisition inductive system driven by empirical interpretation of derived results

This paper describes the design philosophy of and current issues concerning a knowledge acquisition system namedkaiser. This system is an intelligent workbench for construction of knowledge bases for classification tasks by domain experts themselves. It first learns classification knowledge inductively from the examples given by a human expert, then analyzes the result and process based on abstract domain knowledge which is also given by the expert. Based on this analysis, it asks sophisticated questions for acquiring new knowledge. The queries stimulate the human expert and help him to revise the learned results, control the learning process and prepare new examples and domain knowledge. Viewed from an AI aspect, it aims at integrating similarity-based inductive learning and explanation-based deductive reasoning by guiding inductive inference with theoretical and/or heuristic knowledge about the domain. This interactive induce-evaluate-ask cycle produces a rational interview which promotes incremental acquisition of domain knowledge as well as efficient induction of operational and reasonable knowledge proved by the domain knowledge.     

The foundations of econometrics-are there any

The conclusions of alogically consistent economic theory which strictly adheres to Aristotle's axioms of logic are factually true if its sufficient conditions are all factually true. Alternatively, if a conclusion of such a theory is false, then at- least one of its assumptions is false. Unfortunately, the factual truth of sufficient conditions cannot be established because the problem of induction i s impossible t o solve. It is algo true that the falsity of a conclusion cannot be established in the presence of uncertainty. While the philosophy of instrumentalism applied to sufficient and logically consistent explanations may provide useful solutions to immediate practical problems, the principles of simplicity, parsimony and profligacy--all of them requiring conditional deductive arguments--are useless as criteria for model choice.     

On Models and theories of inference; structural or pivotal analysis

Recent material is surveyed concerning the foundations of statistical models, the definition and logic of statistical inference, and the additives used in various applications of theories of inference. This background is then used to compare structural/structured models [Fraser 1966, 1968, 1979] and pivotal models [Barnard 1974, 1981]; the models are found to be identical except for nomencalture and basic justification which supports the structural format. An outline is given of the development of the structural/structured model and of the corresponding mode of inference. The recent pivotal methods of analysis are assessed with this development as background.     

ICP与CPI关系比较和整合研究

广义上看,全球国际比较项目（ICP）和消费者价格指数（CPI）都属于价格统计的范畴。比较分析发现,虽然二者在理论基础、测度目标等方面存在差异,但在原始数据类型、指标生成过程、编制方法和原则等方面相同或非常相近,为二者关系的协调和整合提供了理论支撑。在此基础上,探讨了ICP与CPI整合的总体思路,从基本、扩展和系统三个层面研究二者整合的方法,并提出若干政策建议。     

The teaching of the concepts of statistical tests of hypotheses to non-statisticians

The logic underlying the formulation of statistical tests of hypothesis can be counterintuitive for the non-mathematician, e.g. to test whether two treatments are different, why suppose they are equal? When introducing the topic of hypothesis testing, it is easy to present the formal fiamework for the testing procedure without explaining the logic behind it. In courses for statisticians, one may often (unjustifiably) rely on the understanding of probability concepts as a foundation for understanding statistical inference, but in courses taught to non-statisticians where there is minimal discussion of probability, it is essential that explanations must be based on concepts the students can readily understand. The method proposed here for teaching the concept of hypothesis testing makes an analogy to the judicial system, whereby a person is assumed innocent until sufficient evidence warrants a verdict of guilty. Analogies for the different elements of statistical tests are presented and discussed, together with a classroom fiamework for discussion of statistical tests.     

我国贫困人口的脆弱度与贫困动态

 在贫困脆弱性和贫困动态理论的逻辑归纳与阐述基础上，利用辽宁省重点贫困县调查样本数据，采用聚类分析、脆弱度分析以及敏感度分析等方法实际测度了贫困县贫困状态的分布情况和脆弱程度；从贫困动态的角度，对贫困户1997～2006年间的贫困发生频次、深度及持续时段进行了统计分析。研究发现，各个贫困县的贫困脆弱性程度存在一定的差异，且受多重致贫因素的影响呈现出一定的类型分布特征；贫困动态的分析在一定程度上支持了贫困脆弱度的结果；贫困时段分析与以往研究发现略有不同，呈现出“暂时贫困”和“长期贫困”二者“并重”的特征，而非“单一分布”的“偏态”， 真正有效率的扶贫救济制度应当准确地锁定在持续贫困的家庭上，政策相应地要具有差异性和弹性，这样才有可能快速及时的解决攻坚阶段的贫困问题。     

The deductive phase of statistical analysis via predictive simulations: test,validation and control of a linear model with autocorrelated errors representing a food process

Statistical analysis consists of two phases: induction for model parameter estimation and deduction to make decisions on the basis of the statistical model. In the Bayesian context, predictive analysis is the key concept to perform the deductive phase. In that context, Monte-Carlo posterior simulations are shown to be extremely valuable tools to achieve for instance model selection and model checking. Example of predictive analysis by simulation is detailed for the linear model with Autocorrelated Errors which has been beforehand estimated by Gibbs sampling. Numerical illustrations are then given for a food process with data collected on line. Special attention is cast on the control of its anticipated behavior under uncertainty within Bayesian decision theory.     

Regions of alternatives with high and low power for goodness-of-fit tests

In the present paper we find finite dimensional spaces W of alternatives with high power for a given class of tests and non-parametric alternatives. On the orthogonal complement of W the power function is flat. These methods can be used to reduce the dimension of interesting alternatives. We sketch a device how to calculate (approximately) an alternative with maximum power of a fixed test on a given ball of certain non-parametric alternatives.

The calculations are done within different asymptotic models specified by signal detection tests. Specific tests are Kolmogorov–Smirnov type tests, integral tests (like the Anderson and Darling test) and Rényi tests for hazard based models. The statistical meaning and interpretation of the spaces of alternatives with high power is discussed. These alternatives belong to least favorable directions of a class of statistical functionals which are linear combinations of quantile functions. For various cases their meaning is explained for parametric submodels, in particular for location alternatives.     

Statistical learning procedures for monitoring regulatory compliance: an application to fisheries data

Summary.  As a special case of statistical learning, ensemble methods are well suited for the analysis of opportunistically collected data that involve many weak and sometimes specialized predictors, especially when subject-matter knowledge favours inductive approaches. We analyse data on the incidental mortality of dolphins in the purse-seine fishery for tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The goal is to identify those rare purse-seine sets for which incidental mortality would be expected but none was reported. The ensemble method random forests is used to classify sets according to whether mortality was (response 1) or was not (response 0) reported. To identify questionable reporting practice, we construct 'residuals' as the difference between the categorical response (0,1) and the proportion of trees in the forest that classify a given set as having mortality. Two uses of these residuals to identify suspicious data are illustrated. This approach shows promise as a means of identifying suspect data gathered for environmental monitoring.