The dependence of marriage migrations in Japan on personal factors and ecological variables

Marriage is an important migration‐inducing life‐cycle event. This paper uses a nested logit model to explain the interprefectural migration behaviors at marriage by personal factors and prefectural attributes, based on the micro data of the 1986 national migration survey of Japan. Before marriage, each person is considered a potential migrant making a two‐level decision: (1) to stay or depart and (2) to choose a destination. The main findings are as follows.

Destination choice propensities were affected by such attributes of potential destination as income (+), employment growth (+), distance (‐), contiguity (+), and linguistic similarity (+). Non‐natives appeared to be less sensitive to the attraction of economic opportunities. Personal factors were less important than prefectural attributes in affecting destination choice propensities.

Departure propensities were affected by not only such attributes of origin prefecture as income (‐), employment growth (‐), and population density (+) but also the “inclusive variable”; (+), which reflected the attractiveness of the rest of the system. Despite being strongly emphasized in the literature, sibling status was less important than gender, nativity and education in affecting departure propensities. Personal factors were much more important than prefectural attributes in determining the departure propensities.     

Elderly migration: For sun and money

Discussions about elderly migration and its implications for growth planning tend to neglect the role of economic forces. Our view is that cost-of-living variations among states give elderly households on fixed incomes an incentive to move that closely resembles the effects of wage opportunities on workers who migrate. To test this view, we employ a state-by-state index of cost of living for a retired couple to explore its impact on migration choices of the elderly. The effects of cost of living on migration are investigated in terms of the probability that an elderly person will move out-of-state during a five-year period and the probability that a given state will be chosen as destination once a decision has been made to migrate. The influences of cost of living at both origin and destination are strongly confirmed.     

Elderly migration: For sun and money

Discussions about elderly migration and its implications for growth planning tend to neglect the role of economic forces. Our view is that cost-of-living variations among states give elderly households on fixed incomes an incentive to move that closely resembles the effects of wage opportunities on workers who migrate. To test this view, we employ a state-by-state index of cost of living for a retired couple to explore its impact on migration choices of the elderly. The effects of cost of living on migration are investigated in terms of the probability that an elderly person will move out-of-state during a five-year period and the probability that a given state will be chosen as destination once a decision has been made to migrate. The influences of cost of living at both origin and destination are strongly confirmed.     

Welfare reform and interstate migration of poor families

The thesis of this study is that as a result of increased inequalities in welfare rules, the 1996 welfare reform act not only enhanced incentives for poor families to move but also (and perhaps more important) created disincentives for them to stay in "race to the bottom" states. In testing this thesis, we evaluated the mediating and moderating roles of state economic development and family structure. We merged data from three main sources: the 1996-1999 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, and state economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Modeling both destination (pull) and departure (push) effects of welfare policy measures and selected covariates in a nested discrete-time event-history migration analysis, we found robust support for the thesis that stringency in state welfare-eligibility and behavior-related rules stimulated interstate out-migration of poor families in the United States. However poor families were not drawn to states with relatively more-lenient welfare rules, although stringency in state welfare dollar benefits inhibited in-migration and state unemployment patterns may have conditioned the migration effects of welfare-reform rules on the choice of destination. Single mothers were not more directly affected by welfare-eligibility and behavior-related rules than were poor married couples.     

Analysis on Factors Affecting Decision-making of Migrant Population in Large Cities of China

In this paper, based on survey data of four cities,migrant population in 2008, we use multi-level Logit model to analyze the factors of individual and areas of destination which have impact on migration behavior of migrant population in large cities.We find that there are large changes in the behavior of migrants:Firstly,the rise in the proportion of migrant citizens has led to the effects of gender, marital status and household type and other factors on the probability of migration are not significant,and the migration is appearing to base on the family unit;Secondly,due to the discrimination against migrants in employment and wage income, and the upgrade of industrial structure,the attractiveness of the increasing jobs to the migrant population has declined, and migrants,expected income is detaching from the income level of urban residents;Thirdly,the growth of urban ladors,average wage has extrusion effect on the employment of the migrant labors in the informal sector, which reduces the probability of potential migrant population.     

延边朝鲜族人口迁移的影响因素研究

利用"延边朝鲜族人口负增长"课题组的调查资料,研究朝鲜族人口特征对迁移的影响。结果显示,育龄妇女对稳定朝鲜族人口有重要的作用;15~34岁人口群体迁移倾向最大;未婚者迁移到韩国的倾向比已婚者小;基础教育加大了人们的迁移倾向;拥有农业户口的居民迁移到韩国的倾向较大;家庭人口数与迁移倾向呈正相关。     

Work disability and migration in the early years of welfare reform

The inter- and intra-state migration of American families with work-disabled members is a neglected area of empirical study. Longitudinal migration and health status data from the 1996 Panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are merged with state-level welfare policy indicators to investigate migration behavior under welfare reform’s emphasis on requiring work and encouraging reliance on social support networks. We use a nested discrete-choice event history model that incorporates the departure decision and interstate destination choice in a single model that tests the effects of state-level welfare policy and economic opportunity characteristics, with state fixed effects, plus family sociodemographic characteristics and social networks, as the basis for comparing migration of families with and without work disabilities. The results show that although families with disabilities and illnesses are less likely to migrate than other families generally, they are “pushed” to migrate if they live in states that do not exempt them from TANF activities requirements. Furthermore, in-migration is inhibited by stringent state welfare illness exemption rules and high state unemployment rates. Intrastate migration is more likely among families who received family and community social support, regardless of work-disability status.     

Descriptive Analysis of the Individual Migratory Pathways According to Environmental Typologies

This study tests the influence of environmental changes on migration in Burkina Faso. It describes individual migratory pathways in the 1960–1999 period in Burkina Faso, using environmental typologies of origins and destinations based on rainfall variations and land degradation. The study links data from a national longitudinal (retrospective) survey with fine resolution rainfall data and land degradation data. Results suggest that environmental factors influence, but in different ways, both the probability to out-migrate and the selection of a destination once the migration decision has been made. Migration seems to be more influenced by a slow-acting process such as land degradation than by episodic events such as droughts.     

Deciphering the Relationship Between Internal Migration and Regional Disparities in Tunisia

This study analyses the key factors that shape inter-governorates migration in Tunisia, focusing mainly on the role of demographic, geographical and socio-economic factors in driving migration flows. It uses basic and extended gravity models, as well as Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood model for modeling migration data to assess the relative importance of distance, job market characteristics and economic variables. The main findings reveal that inter-governorate migrations in Tunisia are affected by high population size at the origin and destination locations, high unemployment rate at the origin and low unemployment rate at the destination. The results suggest also that migration flows are negatively affected by high job vacancies and the annual average per capita household expenditure at the origin.     

大城市外来人口迁移行为影响因素分析

利用2008年四大城市的外来人口问卷调查资料,运用多层次Logit模型分析影响大城市外来人口迁移行为的个体因素和迁入地因素。研究发现,外来人口的迁移行为发生较大的变化,城城迁移所占比重的上升导致性别、婚姻状况以及户口类型等因素对迁移概率的影响并不显著,迁移更多地表现为以家庭为单位;由于外来人口在就业和工资收入上受到不同程度的歧视,加之迁入地产业结构调整升级,就业岗位的增加对外来人口的吸引力有所下降,并且其预期收入水平与城市居民平均收入水平相脱离;城市平均工资增长率的提高对非正规部门劳动力产生了挤出效应,减小了潜在迁移者的迁移概率。     

The effect of immigration on the internal migration of the native-born population, 1981–1990

This study examines the impact of immigration on the labor market opportunities of the native-born population by looking through the window of migration. We use Current Population Survey data to analyze the one-year migration patterns of Anglos and Blacks and include the presence of recent immigrants in the origin and (potential) destination US states among the covariates. Our departure model employs a logit specification to predict outmigration (vs not) from the state during the year prior to the survey. Our arrival model uses a conditional logit discrete choice specification with sampling among the alternatives to predict destination state. The data are taken from the 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1990 Current Population Surveys. This work adds to other knowledge of the migratory response of workers and sheds light on theories of substitution and complementarity in labor markets. States with high levels of recent immigration are less likely to retain Anglo workers or receive new Anglo interstate migrants, but this apparent substitution effect is partially offset by the presence of long-term immigrant stock. Lower skilled Anglos are more susceptible to this substitution effect than those of higher skill level. In the black population, results are more complex. Lower skilled blacks are less attracted to high immigrant locations, but African-Americans of higher skill level in selected occupations and industries are predicted to be more likely to remain in or choose states with many recent immigrants.     

The Impact of Rainfall on the First Out-Migration: A Multi-level Event-History Analysis in Burkina Faso

Using event history analyses, we investigate the impact of rainfall conditions — a crucial environmental factor in the livelihood of Sahelian households— on the risk of the first village departure in Burkina Faso. The distinction of migrations by destination and duration proves critical in studying this relationship. Findings suggest that people from the drier regions are more likely than those from wetter areas to engage in both temporary and permanent migrations to other rural areas. Also, short-term rainfall deficits tend to increase the risk of long-term migration to rural areas and decrease the risk of short-term moves to distant destinations.     

A framework for the study of migration destination selection

This article raises a number of issues that have generally not been addressed in previous studies of migration destination selection. Destination selection is seen as the result of two processes; (1) the sorting among a relatively large number of potential destinations over a lifetime, and (2) the selection among a relatively few (usually one or two) places at the time of the migration decision. Decision rules may differ in the two processes. The actual selection of a destination is based on place utilities derived from a combination of factors including: economic and noneconomic; micro (those attributes unique to one place); and macro (those applicable to larger geographic areas).     

Fertility adaptation by rural-urban migrants in developing countries: The case of Korea

Summary The purpose of this study is to develop and test a model to assess the influence of rural-urban migration on fertility in less developed countries. Two major reasons may account for lower fertility levels observed among such migrants than among women who remained in rural areas: a selection effect, and adaptation to constraints in the area of destination. Results of previous studies have only rarely suggested that the effect of adaptation was significant. We use the detailed personal migration and pregnancy histories recorded in the Korean World Fertility Survey of 1974 and an autoregressive model to control for unobservable variations in personal preferences for different family sizes between migrants and non-migrants. Our study provides evidence that adaptation following rural-urban migration is a significant factor which explains the lower fertility of rural-urban migrants compared with that of rural stayers.     

How socioeconomic and environmental factors impact the migration destination choices of different population groups in China: an eigenfunction-based spatial filtering analysis

Population and Environment - Understanding how different factors impact migration destination choices is one of the main research themes in demographic studies. The current study uses relative...     

Health Selection,Migration, and HIV Infection in Malawi

Despite its importance in studies of migrant health, selectivity of migrants—also known as migration health selection—has seldom been examined in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This neglect is problematic because several features of the context in which migration occurs in SSA—very high levels of HIV, in particular—differ from contextual features in regions that have been studied more thoroughly. To address this important gap, we use longitudinal panel data from Malawi to examine whether migrants differ from nonmigrants in pre-migration health, assessed via SF-12 measures of mental and physical health. In addition to overall health selection, we focus on three more-specific factors that may affect the relationship between migration and health: (1) whether migration health selection differs by destination (rural-rural, rural-town, and rural-urban), (2) whether HIV infection moderates the relationship between migration and health, and (3) whether circular migrants differ in pre-migration health status. We find evidence of the healthy migrant phenomenon in Malawi, where physically healthier individuals are more likely to move. This relationship varies by migration destination, with healthier rural migrants moving to urban and other rural areas. We also find interactions between HIV-infected status and health: HIV-infected women moving to cities are physically healthier than their nonmigrant counterparts.     

性别视角下的迁移历程研究——基于中国1930～1969年出生队列的分析

利用2014年中国健康与养老追踪调查生命历程数据,探究中国1930～1969年出生队列的迁移历程及其性别差异,运用事件史分析方法解释重要生命事件(教育、就业、婚姻、生育)对男性和女性迁移历程的影响。研究结果表明,不同出生年代人口的迁移历程呈现明显的队列差异和性别差异;与1940～1949年和1950～1959年出生队列相比,1930～1939年和1960～1969年出生队列在迁移高峰年龄(20～24岁)时的政策限制较少而终身累计迁移频率更高,性别差异也更显著;教育和非农就业转移会促进终身迁移机会,较早结婚和较多生育的作用则相反;非农就业转移对女性的多次迁移有更明显的促进作用,会缩小男女之间的迁移差距;结婚和生育会降低迁移概率,而离婚会增加迁移概率,这些事件对女性的影响更大。     

基于logistic模型的外来人口婚姻迁移的影响因素分析——以珠三角某地区为例

婚姻迁移是人口迁移的一个方面,且增多趋势愈见明显。动机研究是人口迁移相对集中的关注问题。但是关于以迁入地为基点对婚姻迁移的影响因素分析相对较少。本文试图以某地区为例,研究其外来人口中婚姻迁移行为发生的影响因素,主要包括个人、户籍、经济、就业和城市适应五大因素,并引入logistic模型对测量变量进行统计分析。结果表明,个人因素对婚姻迁移的贡献最大,除了就业因素外,其他因素的贡献相似。尤其指出的是随着外来人口的城市适应程度提高,婚姻迁移的可能性将会增加。由此说明,外来人口城市生活的再社会化程度将为他们的社会融合奠定基础。     

迁入地类型的选择——基于五普资料的分析

利用第五次人口普查长表0.95‰微观资料,研究移民特征对迁入地类型选择的影响。结果显示,移民的人口因素和社会特征对迁移目的地的选择有较大的影响。移民人口有向青壮年集中的趋势。婚姻迁移妇女的目的地主要是乡村。有配偶的人更多地考虑迁移对家庭的影响。户籍制度仍然对人口迁移起到限制作用。     

Linkages between internal and international migration: the Ilocos Norte experience

This paper reviews the arguments concerning whether internal and international migration can or should be incorporated in the same migration theories or models and examines the ways in which the 2 processes are linked in a variety of contexts. To provide some illustrative empirical results, reference is made to the Philippine Migration Study (PMS), a research project which incorporates both internal and international migration in its research design. The study examined migration from Ilocos Norte to the principal internal destination, Manila, and the principal international destination, Honolulu. Ilocos Norte is a largely rural, resource poor province with a long history of outmigration that is attributable primarily to population pressure in the region. Due to the fact that 1 of the principal migration streams from the Ilocos is within the Philippines and the other is outside the country, the Ilocos presents an ideal situation for a comparative analysis of internal and international migration. The study consists of 7 different surveys conducted in Ilocos Norte, Manila, and Honolulu between 1980-83. More than 5000 interviews were conducted in the 3 locations. The initial baseline survey in Ilocos Norte was conducted in 1980. After 2-1/2 years, the initial 830 households in the Ilocos Baseline Survey were recontacted to determine the migration behavior of the household members since the 1st survey. Those who had moved to either Manila or Hawaii during this period were traced to the destination and interviewed there. The PMS uses a single integrated model (the value-expectancy or VE framework) to explore migration decision making for both internal and external migration. Despite the complexity of the VE questions, respondents were able to distinguish different locations as being relatively good places or bad places to realize their different goals. Manila was not highly regarded by Ilocanos in most respects, and there was not a single value on which Manila ranked higher than both alternative locations. Relative to the other values, however, Manila is seen as being a good place for educational opportunities and entertainment. Hawaii rated very well on items having to do with wealth and status, but was regarded as a relatively poor place to satisfy one's desire for affiliation. Comfort, affiliation, and morality were viewed as being most easily achieved in the present barangay. Based upon the value-expectancy framework, the findings of the Philippine Migration Study confirm that a global model of migration decision making is feasible and that other important concepts in migration equally apply well in the case of both internal and international population movements.