需求分布规律变化情况下的报童订货策略

在需求分布规律变化情况下,报童在进行订货决策时会因为错误判断需求分布规律而导致期望库存成本增加。为了解决这一问题,本文集成传统历史需求信息和非传统需求信息以正确地认知需求分布规律,在此基础上决策订货量。假设需求服从均值不同、方差相同的两种类型的正态分布,每一种正态分布的概率已知。利用信号检测理论构建基于历史需求信息与需求分布概率的报童最优订货策略,并与只基于需求分布概率的直觉规则订货策略进行对比。结果表明：只要排除需求分布概率很大或很小两种极端情况,最优订货策略比直觉规则订货策略在控制期望库存成本方面的作用更明显,即利用历史需求信息可以有效修正报童对实际需求分布的检测结果,从而提高实际订货决策的准确性。研究结果对传统历史需求信息和非传统需求信息的集成以及需求信息交换等有一定的管理学启示和应用价值。     

AFFECTIVE RESPONSES WITHIN A COMPLEX DECISION-MAKING TASK: THE INFLUENCE OF “PERCEPTUALLY” ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS

The perceptual effects of varying levels of expert advice for potentially improving on strategic decisions were examined in conjunction with goals. The amounts of advice about decision alternatives, as well as assigned goals ranging from “nearly impossible” to “easy,” were manipulated. The task used was complex and functioned perceptually as an “ill-structured” problem. Mixed results indicated that more advice significantly affected satisfaction but advice in general had little influence on effort. On the other hand, as goal difficulty decreased, satisfaction and effort significantly increased. Easy goals were superior to more difficult ones within this perceptually ill-structured decision-making situation.     

DUAL-METRIC MEASUREMENT OF THE IMPACT OF COMPLEXITY ON DECISION QUALITY*

Both sophisticated and unsophisticated subjects were provided either a simple or a complex cue set at random on which to base decisions. A dual-metric approach that consisted of measuring interrater consistency and cross-item variance for each subject category was used to compare the decision quality of the subjects. Although complexity and decision quality were inversely related, the sophisticated subjects performed relatively better using the complex cue set; the unsophisticated subjects performed better using the simple cue set. These findings support the notion that decision-maker and task compatibility are important to the assessment of decision quality.     

COGNITIVE STYLE AND THE USEFULNESS OF INFORMATION*

The desirability of a merger/acquisition alternative depends in part on the perceptions of the decision maker. What sources of information are “useful” to the decision maker & Does the set of useful information remain constant for all decision makers; if not, do individuals using similar information sets have similar information processing characteristics? Do these sets vary as feedback is obtained during the decision process? To answer these questions, graduate students participated in a modified Delphi experiment, and the resulting data were analyzed by the two-way aligned-ranks nonparametric test. These test results affirm that in a merger/acquisition scenario, decision makers with different cognitive styles prefer different sets of information and these sets vary dynamically as feedback is incorporated in the decision-making process. Furthermore, information that contains worker and community welfare considerations is identified as “useful” five times more frequently by decision makers with a “feeling” cognitive style than those with a “thinking” style.     

THE COST OF IGNORING LEAD TIME UNRELIABILITY IN INVENTORY THEORY*

A computerized cost-minimization model was used to study the importance of lead time unreliability (variability of lead time from mean lead time) in inventory management. Using different combinations of stockout cost, demand variability, mean lead time, and variability of lead time around the means, changes in optimum safety stock and in inventory costs were observed. Lead time unreliability was found to be of greater importance than either the mean lead time or the variability of demand in explaining inventory cost behavior. Managers and researchers involved in the development of inventory theory are urged to note the great financial damage that may result from ignoring lead time unreliability; a dollar measure of this penalty is included in the presentation.     

决策者过度自信视角下考虑质量控制的供应链库存策略

研究了由单个供应商和零售商组成的供应链中,零售商进行质量控制的条件下,供应链成员对市场需求的过度自信如何影响其库存管理决策和供应商的质量投资。分析了零售商管理库存、供应商管理库存和集中决策三种供应链库存管理模式下供应链成员库存和质量投资决策的博弈均衡,并通过与完全理性下均衡结果的比较探讨了过度自信对供应链成员库存决策、质量投资和利润等的冲击。研究表明,在零售商管理库存模式下,过度自信的决策者对库存量的决策受其心理预期市场需求的正向影响,而在供应商管理库存和集中决策模式下则相反。     

Coping with Gray Markets: The Impact of Market Conditions and Product Characteristics

Gray markets, also known as parallel imports, have created fierce competition for manufacturers in many industries. We analyze the impact of parallel importation on a price‐setting manufacturer that serves two markets with uncertain demand, and characterize her policy against parallel importation. We show that ignoring demand uncertainty can take a significant toll on the manufacturer's profit, highlighting the value of making price and quantity decisions jointly. We find that adjusting prices is more effective in controlling gray market activity than reducing product availability, and that parallel importation forces the manufacturer to reduce her price gap while demand uncertainty forces her to lower prices. Furthermore, we explore the impact of market conditions (such as market base, price sensitivity, and demand uncertainty) and product characteristics (“fashion” vs. “commodity”) on the manufacturer's policy towards parallel importation. We also provide managerial insights about the value of strategic decision‐making by comparing the optimal policy to the uniform pricing policy that has been adopted by some companies to eliminate gray markets entirely. The comparison indicates that the value of making price and quantity decisions strategically is highest for moderately different market conditions and non‐commodity products.     

IMPACT OF POS DATA SHARING ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

We examine the impact of point of sale (POS) data sharing on ordering decisions in a multi‐echelon supply chain. In particular, we focus on how exposure to POS data may help reduce the “bullwhip effect,” the tendency of orders to increase in variability as one moves up a supply chain. Theoretical studies have shown that exposure to POS data can lead to a reduction in the bullwhip effect when suppliers have no prior knowledge of the demand distribution. The benefit of sharing POS data in stable industries, where the demand distribution is commonly known, is less clear. We study this phenomenon from a behavioral perspective in the context of a simple, serial, supply chain subject to information lags and stochastic demand. We find, using a controlled simulation experiment, that sharing POS information does help reduce some components of the bullwhip effect in a stable demand setting, namely the order oscillation of upstream members. We offer one possible explanation for this improvement by examining the relationship between order decisions and demand line information.     

An Experimental Investigation of Pull Contracts in Supply Chains

In this study, I investigate supply chain contracts in a setting where a supplier uses its inventory to directly satisfy a retailer's demand. These “pull” contracts have increased in popularity in practice but have not been studied experimentally. In a controlled laboratory setting, I evaluate a wholesale price contract and two coordinating contracts. The data suggest that the benefit of the two coordinating contracts over the wholesale price contract is less than the standard theory predicts, and that retailers, in the two coordinating contracts, exhibit a systematic bias of setting the coordinating parameter too low, and the wholesale price too high, relative to the normative benchmarks. In an effort to explain this deviation, I explore three behavioral models and find that loss aversion and reference dependence fit the data well. I empirically test this result in a follow‐up experiment, which directly controls for loss aversion and reference dependence, and observe that retailers make significantly better decisions. Lastly, I administer a number of experiments which reduce the complexity of the problem, curtail the amount of risk, and increase the level of decision support, and find that none improve decisions relative to the treatment that controls for loss aversion and reference dependence.     

How Inventory Cost Influences Introduction Timing of Product Line Extensions

In the industry with radical technology push or rapidly changing customer preference, it is firms' common wisdom to introduce high‐end product first, and follow by low‐end product‐line extensions. A key decision in this “down‐market stretch” strategy is the introduction time. High inventory cost is pervasive in such industries, but its impact has long been ignored during the presale planning stage. This study takes a first step toward filling this gap. We propose an integrated inventory (supply) and diffusion (demand) framework and analyze how inventory cost influences the introduction timing of product‐line extensions, considering substitution effect among successive generations. We show that under low inventory cost or frequent replenishment ordering policy, the optimal introduction time indeed follows the well‐known “now or never” rule. However, sequential introduction becomes optimal as the inventory holding gets more substantial or the product life cycle gets shorter. The optimal introduction timing can increase or decrease with the inventory cost depending on the marketplace setting, requiring a careful analysis.     

Location of Inventories in an MRP Environment

Previous research on MRP systems has rarely considered at what level in a modular sub-assembly product structure to hold inventories. Based on a simulation study of an MRP environment, we show that the correct decision concerning where to hold inventory depends on the variance in end-item demand, the amount of inventory investment, and concomitantly, the desired level of customer service. In particular, for small investment in inventories and moderate end-item demand variance, it is equally effective to hold inventories at the subassembly level or the end-item level. But when end-item demand variance is high, subassembly level inventories are better. As inventory investment grows, however, it is best to use a diversified approach of holding both subassembly and end-item inventories, irrespective of end-item demand variance. The robustness of these conclusions is validated by simulating a hypothetical firm that also uses safety time to hedge against uncertainties.     

区分仓库与货架库存需求影响效应的零售商库存决策

既往有关库存水平影响需求条件下的库存问题研究中,通常对终端库存水平是否存在货架与零售商仓库库存水平的区别未作深入探讨。本文的研究认为,现实中许多零售商拥有仓库,其现有库存水平包括仓库库存和货架库存两部分,而影响需求的仅为与货架展示能力相关的库存,因此有必要对二者的需求影响效应进行区分。在明确这一区别的前提下,本文首先建立了供应商管理库存情况下库存水平影响需求问题的一般库存模型,给出零售商的最优订货策略;并考虑货架的容量限制,给出零售商启用仓库的判断条件。由于仓库库存仅在能够影响货架展示能力的条件下才能够影响消费需求,本文还进一步讨论了在零售商拥有仓库时,区分货架与仓库的库存水平影响需求条件下的最优库存与订货决策。这对于经营不同特征商品的零售商在进行是否需要拥有仓库,以及拥有仓库条件下的库存决策具有很好的参考价值。     

Knowing What Your Customer Wants: Improving Inventory Allocation Decisions in Online Movie Rental Systems

In Online Movie Rental Systems, customer desire to rent can often be observed before the actual consumption occurs. Desire represents uncensored (or true) demand information. Hence, the impact of inventory decisions (numbers of physical copies of different movies) can be accurately traced to the creation of desire (via Word‐of‐mouth), and then to rental. Word‐of‐Mouth (WOM) has been recognized as one of the most influential sources of information transmission, especially for experience goods. Poor inventory decisions may result in lost rentals in two ways: One is the loss of rentals because of low inventory (direct effect), and the other is the loss of the possible demand (rentals) that could have been created through WOM (indirect effect). We use data from an online DVD‐by‐mail firm to estimate the direct and indirect effects of inventory decisions, considering the circular relationship: Rental generates WOM, WOM creates Desire, and Desire turns into Rental. We find that the magnitude of indirect effects is significant, comparable to and sometimes even exceeding direct effects. The value of the empirical findings to facilitate better inventory allocation decisions is examined.     

Path to “Stardom” in Globally Distributed Hybrid Teams: An Examination of a Knowledge‐Centered Perspective using Social Network Analysis

Although distributed teams have been researched extensively in information systems and decision science disciplines, a review of the literature suggests that the dominant focus has been on understanding the factors affecting performance at the team level. There has however been an increasing recognition that specific individuals within such teams are often critical to the team's performance. Consequently, existing knowledge about such teams may be enhanced by examining the factors that affect the performance of individual team members. This study attempts to address this need by identifying individuals who emerge as “stars” in globally distributed teams involved in knowledge work such as information systems development (ISD). Specifically, the study takes a knowledge‐centered view in explaining which factors lead to “stardom” in such teams. Further, it adopts a social network approach consistent with the core principles of structural/relational analysis in developing and empirically validating the research model. Data from U.S.–Scandinavia self‐managed “hybrid” teams engaged in systems development were used to deductively test the proposed model. The overall study has several implications for group decision making: (i) the study focuses on stars within distributed teams, who play an important role in shaping group decision making, and emerge as a result of a negotiated/consensual decision making within egalitarian teams; (ii) an examination of emergent stars from the team members’ point of view reflects the collective acceptance and support dimension decision‐making contexts identified in prior literature; (iii) finally, the study suggests that the social network analysis technique using relational data can be a tool for a democratic decision‐making technique within groups.     

The Effects of Task Information and Outcome Feedback on Individuals' Insight into Their Decision Models

When making business decisions, people generally receive some form of guidance. Often, this guidance might be in the form of instructions about which inputs to the decision are most important. Alternatively, it might be outcome feedback concerning the appropriateness of their decisions. When people receive guidance in making difficult judgments, it is important that they do not confuse this guidance with insight into their own decision models. This study examined whether people confuse their actual decision model with task information and outcome feedback. Subjects predicted the likelihood that various hypothetical companies would experience financial distress and then reported the decision models they believed they had used. Their reported models were compared with their actual models as estimated by a regression of the subjects' predictions on the inputs to their decisions. In a 2times2 factorial design, some subjects were provided with task information regarding the relative importance of each input to their decisions while others were not. Some subjects were provided with outcome feedback regarding the quality of their decisions while others were not. The subjects tended to confuse the task information and outcome feedback with their actual decision models. Implications for the results are discussed.     

THE STRUCTURE OF EXECUTIVE INFORMATION SYSTEMS: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS

This paper reports on a study which attempted to identify the structure of executive information systems and evaluate their relationship to decision making. The study centered on answering the question: “Where and how do senior executives get their decision-making information?” The data, provided by five senior executives, were gathered by a variety of means which included personal interviews, questionnaires, and logs of the executives' incoming-information transactions for a two-week period. Our findings support beliefs that senior executives receive much information from the environment, that informal systems play a role equal to that of formal systems, and that computers do not provide much information directly to an executive. The study also found that internal information is important and that preferred sources and media vary with different decision roles. The authors suggest that the scope of MIS and DSS be broadened to match those information networks managers actually rely on in daily practice.     

How hot cognition can lead us astray: The effect of anger on strategic decision making

Anger is one of the most frequently experienced emotions. However, the extant research on the impact of anger has predominantly focused on its effect on decision making in simple decision tasks. Strategic decision making differs significantly from such tasks, as it is characterized by complexity, ambiguity, and a high information load. To better understand the impact of emotions on strategic decision making, we investigate the effect of anger on decision quality and decision speed. To do so, we carry out a strategy field experiment with 52 executives in which we use participants’ psychophysiological skin conductance response. In line with psychological research on non-strategic decisions, we find that anger negatively influences decision quality in strategic decision making. However, in contrast to predictions made by research on non-strategic decisions, we find no increase in decision speed among angry participants. We thus extend extant theory by suggesting that anger impacts the quality of strategic decisions but does not affect important process characteristics such as decision speed.     

A Service Quality Process Map for Credit Card Processing

Evaluating marketing (external) and operations (internal) service quality performance in most organizations is a data-oriented management task that involves many variables for many different types of services. These two diverse sets of service quality information seldom “match up well” because the marketing and operations functions define and evaluate service quality “their way.” Management's interpretation of what the data “mean” often contributes to extra meetings, unnecessary disagreements within and between functional areas, and poor decision making. This situation can affect the quality and timing of decisions, and ultimately, the organization's profitability and market share. This paper quantitatively relates the customer's evaluation (perception) of service quality directly to the activities and performance criteria of the service delivery process for a credit card processing center. Basic statistical analyses and a recursive path analysis model define the relationships between marketing- and operations-based service quality information. The idea of a “service quality process map” is introduced. A service quality process map relates a flowchart of the service delivery process to the customer's perception of service using the power of multivariate data analysis. Management insights gained from an analysis of marketing (external) and operations (internal) measures of service quality performance can be used to allocate resources wisely. The objective is to gain the most improvement in the customer's perception of service for the least cost. Service quality with this type of evaluation capability can be used to gain competitive advantage in the marketplace.