Emigration and living standards in Ireland since the Famine

Ireland experienced dramatic levels of emigration in the century following the Famine of 1845–1849. The paper surveys the recent cliometric literature on post-Famine emigration and its effects on Irish living standards. The conclusions are that the Famine played a significant role in unleashing the subsequent emigration; and that emigration was crucial for the impressive increase in Irish living standards which took place during the next 100 years.Revised version of a paper read at the ESF Research Conference on Migration and Development, Aghia Pelaghia, Crete, Greece, October 7–12, 1994. I am grateful to Cormac Ó Gráda, Jeffrey Williamson and Klaus F. Zimmermann for comments and suggestions, and especially to three anonymous referees, as well as Tim Hatton and Alan Taylor who suggested the quantitative exercise to be found towards the end of Sect. 3.     

Does the marriage market sex ratio affect parental sex selection? Evidence from the Chinese census

Recent increases in the (male/female) sex ratio at birth in eastern Asia are thought to be associated with a preference for sons and to result from parental sex selection. However, males are less likely to marry and to have offspring as the ratio increases, and that decreases the expected number of grandchildren. Using data from the 2000 Chinese census, we test whether the sex ratio in the marriage market has an effect on the gender of subsequent births and hence on the sex ratio of the birth cohort. The slow population growth caused by the Great Famine in the early 1960s and the quick recovery that followed produced major changes in the sex ratio for those of marriageable age two decades later. We estimate that an increase of 1 % in the number of marriageable males relative to females, the marriage market sex ratio, would decrease the probability of having a son by 0.02 percentage points. That implies that the Great Famine, which occurred around 1960, led to an increase in the early 1980s of 5.8 extra male births per 100 females.     

Exporting Poor Health: The Irish in England

In the twentieth century, the Irish-born population in England has typically been in worse health than both the native population and the Irish population in Ireland, a reversal of the commonly observed healthy migrant effect. Recent birth cohorts living in England and born in Ireland, however, are healthier than the English population. The substantial Irish migrant health penalty arises principally for cohorts born between 1920 and 1960. In this article, we attempt to understand the processes that generated these changing migrant health patterns for Irish migrants to England. Our results suggest a strong role for economic selection in driving the dynamics of health differences between Irish-born migrants and white English populations.     

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given period and the population at risk of leaving, weighted by the duration at risk. Emigration surveys provide a useful data source for estimating emigration rates, provided that the estimation method accounts for sample design. In this study, emigration rates and confidence intervals are estimated from a sample survey of households in the Dakar region in Senegal, which was part of the Migration between Africa and Europe survey. The sample was a stratified two-stage sample with oversampling of households with members abroad or return migrants. A combination of methods of survival analysis (time-to-event data) and replication variance estimation (bootstrapping) yields emigration rates and design-consistent confidence intervals that are representative for the study population.     

Redefining the Nation through Economic Growth and Migration: Changing Rationalities of Governance in the Republic of Ireland?

In an increasingly mobile world, territorially bounded notions of the nation are being rethought, but so are the rationalities of governing mobility and migration. Emigration has become a target of governance in new ways in recent years in the Republic of Ireland with specific implications of the governance of contemporary immigration. This article discusses how emigration has constituted the national ‘we’ in the past and present in order to show how familiar, if changing, relationships between emigration and the Irish nation are now being unsettled through the more contradictory juxtaposition of emigrants, immigrants and the national. The article questions the political potential of this destabilisation of national belonging in the context of neo‐liberal rationalities of governance at a distance, and argues that the interplay of pastoral and economic rationalities of migration governance offers Irish nationals continued economic prosperity without being disturbed by the proximity of the unfamiliar.     

Does emigration benefit the stayers? Evidence from EU enlargement

Around 9 % of the Lithuanian workforce emigrated to Western Europe after the enlargement of the European Union in 2004. I exploit this emigration wave to study the effect of emigration on wages in the sending country. Using household data from Lithuania and work permit and census data from the UK and Ireland, I demonstrate that emigration had a significant positive effect on the wages of stayers. A one-percentage-point increase in the emigration rate predicts a 0.67 % increase in real wages. This effect, however, is only statistically significant for men.     

中国的生育率:到底下降了多少?

1990年代以来 ,中国的生育水平持续下降 ,已经进入低生育国家的行列。 2 0 0 0年人口普查 ,中国的总和生育率为 1 2 2 ,明显存在漏报。那么中国的生育率到底下降了多少 ?本文利用亲生子女法、生育史重构法和胎次递进比方法分析了 1 990年代生育率的下降过程 ,认为 2 0 0 0年总和生育率最准确的估计应为 1 5 8。通过分解总和生育率的变化 ,认为 1 990年代生育水平的下降 ,2 /5归因于结婚年龄的推迟 ,3/5归因于婚内生育率的下降     

Coverage of the population in Census 2000: Results from Demographic Analysis

Since the 1960 Census, Demographic Analysis (DA) has been used by the Census Bureau to evaluate the coverage of the population. Administrative statistics on births, deaths, immigration and Medicare enrollments as well as estimates of legal emigration and net undocumented immigration are used to produce demographic analysis estimates of the population for the census date. These estimates are compared to the Census 2000 data to evaluate coverage in the census. The results are also compared to measures of undercount obtained from dual system estimation. The DA measures substantial reduction in net undercount in Census 2000 compared to 1990. The reductions occur among all demographic categories: all broad age groups, males and females, Blacks and Non-Blacks.     

Individual and Community Aspects of Women's Status and Fertility in Rural Bangladesh

Samples from the U.S. passenger lists are used to focus upon the emigrants from England to the U.S.A. during 1841. Probably as many as three-quarters of the English emigrants of that year made the U.S.A. their destination, though only a minority of Irish and Scottish emigrants sailed directly to U.S. ports. The English appear very largely to have spurned the unusual opportunities for assisted emigration to colonies that were available that year. The occupations of male emigrants are compared with occupations reported in the population census of 1841. Farmers, general labourers, and industrial workers, particularly those employed in textile industries, were overrepresented among the emigrants. Yet the movement was not predominantly an exodus of labourers from agriculture, nor from some of the most depressed occupations such as framework knitters and nailers. Various occupational groups are analyzed according to travelling companions, dependants and age, in an effort to distinguish between the more cycle-sensitive groups and those seemingly intent on permanent emigration.     

Emigration from the british isles to the u.s.a. In 1831

Abstract This is a first attempt to use the original passenger manifests from immigrant ships entering U.S. ports to see what can be learned about emigration from the British Isles during the period of most rapid industrialization and urbanization between the Napoleonic Wars and the beginning of mass emigration in the late 1840s. Based on lists compiled during the years 1827 to 1831, the article demonstrates that these original lists contain more social and demographic information about migrants than was ever published by the U.S. government and also that the official statistics that were published were incomplete and exaggerated the fish share in the immigration through U.S ports. The English immigration is shown to have been predominantly a family movement in 1831, but most migrants chose to emigrate at favourable moments in the life cycle. Occupations and countries with low incomes were not well represented among English migrants through U.S. ports. As early as 1831, the majority of men among the English immigrants were industrial workers, though farmers (as distinct from farm labourers) were over-represented.     

Reconstructing the size of the African American population by age and sex, 1930–1990

We estimate the size of the African American population in five-year age groups at census dates from 1930 to 1990 using a three-part strategy. For cohorts born after 1935, we follow the U.S. Census Bureau in using classical demographic analysis. To estimate the size of cohorts born before 1895, we use extinct-generation estimates. For remaining cohorts, we implement an age/period/cohort model of census counts. All approaches are applied to a data set in which the age distribution of deaths has been corrected for age misreporting. Results provide strong confirmation of the basic validity of Census Bureau estimates of census undercounts for African Americans while extending estimates to new cohorts and periods. Our estimates are less consistent with an historical series prepared by Coale and Rives (1973).     

Two Thomases: Dublin Castle and The Quality of Life in Victorian Ireland

Administration of Ireland in the nineteenth century was carried out, principally, by three senior officials who were appointed by the current Prime Minister in London, and who served at his pleasure. There were two periods, 1835–1840, and 1853–1869, when Ireland was served by two outstanding men, Thomas Drummond and Thomas Larcom. Both men were trained as military engineers, and were well acquainted by both their membership in the Corps of Royal Engineers and by their shared participation in some projects of the civil government. Their paths to high office were different; Drummond distinguished himself by his skill at technology, and Larcom achieved wide recognition through his imaginative service in the mapping of Ireland. In their periods of service, these two Sappers further distinguished themselves by the quality and selflessness of their of their work. Improvement of quality in the life of the Irish people is documented by presentation of social indicators data from the period 1831–1871.     

[A simplification of the iteration method of estimating China's midyear population for 1981].]

An iteration method is used to estimate China's 1981 midyear population, given census data on births and deaths in 1981 and midyear population for 1982. The author mathematically proves the convergence of the iteration method and outlines a simplified method, which is shown to be as accurate as the conventional iteration method.     

Population estimates for Bangladesh: The use of a specific transitional population model

Summary The development of population in Bangladesh was affected by a succession of man-made and natural calamities, such as the Bengal Famine of 1943, refugee movements following the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, devastating floods and cyclones around 1970, and the military action during the war of liberation. Though there had been a tradition of census taking and vital registration in Bangladesh, as part of the Indian sub-continent, extending for over a century, vital registration was so deficient as to be almost valueless, and there were gross misstatements of age and under-enumeration in the censuses. In the census of 1941, on the other hand, political manoeuvring led to a substantial overcount of the population. In this paper, Bangladesh population trends are studied within the broader framework of the subcontinent, taking account of plausible differentials. A considerable element of uncertainty was introduced into growth trends as a result of variations in the completeness of census-taking and of unrecorded refugee and labour movements across open land borders. In this connection the substantial inflationary bias associated with techniques of population estimation using the dual record system is discussed. The application of stable population models is even less justified in Bangladesh with its history of declining mortality. A transitional age structure model was constructed on the basis of the information available on declining mortality and accelerating growth and the model was made even more specific by modifications which took care of the impact of recent calamities and of unrecorded migration. The population base of the census of 1961 was adjusted in accordance with this model. The local mortality age pattern was used in projecting the population by sex and age groups to the date at which the census was originally due to be taken in 1971, and to the date when it was actually taken in March 1974. The post-1970 calamities and their effect on mortality were ignored. The aggregate estimate of population of 72.9 million in March 1974 is slightly in excess of the census count (by about two per cent) reported provisionally as 71.3 million. The excess in our estimate could be accounted for by the losses due to cyclone and military action.     

Mortality in Vietnam, 1979–1989

Little is known about past and present mortality in Vietnam, as the first official data on mortality have only recently become available from censuses taken in 1979 and 1989. Using these data, I estimate Vietnamese mortality during the intercensal period using two techniques that rely on age-specific growth rates from two successive age distributions. Intercensal emigration and differential completeness of census enumeration associated with massive outflows of refugees in the wake of the Vietnam War; population-redistribution policies, and a highly mobile population represent important sources of bias for the estimation of intercensal mortality. I incorporate several strategies to minimize bias from these sources and to select the method that is least sensitive to errors associated with them. Life expectancy at birth estimated for the 1979–1989 intercensal period is 61.4 years for males and 63.2 for females. These results suggest a trend of declining mortality between the 1970s and the 1980s and add solid empirical evidence to the debate over whether mortality in Vietnam has been deteriorating or improving.     

The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000

Since the nineteenth century, the census has provided the number of 100-year-olds in Brazil, one of the most populous countries worldwide. In 1900, 4,438 individuals reported themselves to be centenarians, a figure that increased about fivefold by the 2000 census. However, due to data quality issues, we are skeptical about the real size of the recorded population in the Brazilian census. We offer alternative estimates of the most likely number of centenarians during the twentieth century by combining variable-r relations with different mortality models. Our results indicate there was virtually no centenarian at the beginning of the twentieth century. The population has become larger than 1,000 individuals only in the 1990s, suggesting there has been an extensive, although diminishing, overenumeration of centenarians in the census records. Our results can help policymakers to plan the demands of a growing old age population in places that face stricter family and public budget constraints.     

Fertility decline in Scotland, England and Wales, and Ireland: comparisons from the 1911 census of fertility

Data on family size by year of marriage, age at marriage, and duration of marriage, from the 1911 Fertility Census, are compared between Scotland, England and Wales, Irish county boroughs, and the rest of Ireland. While means show significant inter-country differences, from the 1880s marked similarities are found across all the countries in the pattern of fertility decline, strongly suggesting significant fertility limitation in rural Ireland well before 1911. Noting the implications for the use of rural Ireland as a natural fertility population, the data are instead compared with the Coale-Trussell and Hinde-Woods schedules. The former provides more plausible results, which imply strong period rather than cohort effects in the fertility decline. Except in rural Ireland, little evidence is found for significant fertility limitation early in marriage among younger marrying couples, but many older marrying couples appear to have stopped childbearing at very low parities from an early date.     

Foreign-born emigration: A new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files

The utility of postcensal population estimates depends on the adequate measurement of four major components of demographic change: fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration. Of the four components, emigration, especially of the foreign-born, has proved the most difficult to gauge. Without "direct" methods (i.e., methods identifying who emigrates and when), demographers have relied on indirect approaches, such as residual methods. Residual estimates, however are sensitive to inaccuracies in their constituent parts and are particularly ill-suited for measuring the emigration of recent arrivals. Here we introduce a new method for estimating foreign-born emigration that takes advantage of the sample design of the Current Population Survey (CPS): repeated interviews of persons in the same housing units over a period of 16 months. Individuals appearing in a first March Supplement to the CPS but not the next include those who died in the intervening year, those who moved within the country, and those who emigrated. We use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of emigrants among those not present in the follow-up interview. Our method produces emigration estimates that are comparable to those from residual methods in the case of longer-term residents (immigrants who arrived more than 10 years ago), but yields higher--and what appear to be more accurate--estimates for recent arrivals. Although somewhat constrained by sample size, we also generate estimates by age, sex, region of birth, and duration of residence in the United States.     

Sons of St. Patrick: Quality of Life and Heights of Young Irish Males at Mid-Nineteenth Century

An index of the quality of life for children in Ireland’s four provinces containing thirty-two counties is generated from three domains of information in the (1841) census of Ireland. The average of three regression-weighted indexes derived from educational, demographic and housing data is labelled the Quality of Life for Irish Children—1841 (QUALIC’41). Heights of 1,032 army recruits generated a sub-set of 735 males between the ages of 17 and 20 years. Their heights were indexed to those of the general population in the Galton committee report of 1883. Height indexes are presented and analyzed. The QUALIC’41 index is assessed as a predictor of heights in the late teen years. The heights are compared with Scottish heights from the same period, and are assessed for differences due to the presence of the 1845 famine in the growth pattern of some recruits.     

The impact of adult child emigration on the mental health of older parents

We explore whether older parents of adult children who emigrate experience, in the short term, increases in depressive symptoms and loneliness feelings compared to parents whose children do not migrate. We use data from the first two waves of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, which is a nationally representative sample of 8500 people aged 50 + living in Ireland. To deal with the endogeneity of migration, we apply fixed-effects estimation models and control for a broad range of life events occurring between the two waves. These include the emigration of a child but also events such as bereavement, onset of disease, retirement and unemployment. We find that depressive symptoms and loneliness feelings increase among the parents of migrant children but that the effect is only present for mothers. As the economic burden of mental health problems is high, our findings have potentially significant impacts for migrant-sending regions and countries.