Re-distributed manufacturing and the food-water-energy nexus: opportunities and challenges

Abstract

Addressing the intersection of two important emerging research areas, re-distributed manufacturing (RDM) and the food-energy-water (FEW) nexus, this work combines insights from engineering, business and policy perspectives and explores opportunities and challenges towards a more localized and sustainable food system. Analysis centred on two specific food products, namely bread and tomato paste reveals that the feasibility and potential of RDM vary with the type of food product and the supply chain (SC) components. Physically, energy efficiency, water consumption and reduction of waste and carbon footprint may be affected by scale and location of production activities and potentials of industrial symbiosis. From the business perspective, novel products, new markets and new business models are expected in order for food RDM to penetrate within the established food industry. Studies on policies, through the lens of public procurement, call for solid evidence of envisioned environmental, social and economic benefits of a more localized food system. An initial integrated framework is proposed for understanding and assessing food RDM and the FEW nexus.     

Scenario Discovery with Multiple Criteria: An Evaluation of the Robust Decision‐Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation

There is increasing concern over deep uncertainty in the risk analysis field as probabilistic models of uncertainty cannot always be confidently determined or agreed upon for many of our most pressing contemporary risk challenges. This is particularly true in the climate change adaptation field, and has prompted the development of a number of frameworks aiming to characterize system vulnerabilities and identify robust alternatives. One such methodology is robust decision making (RDM), which uses simulation models to assess how strategies perform over many plausible conditions and then identifies and characterizes those where the strategy fails in a process termed scenario discovery. While many of the problems to which RDM has been applied are characterized by multiple objectives, research to date has provided little insight into how treatment of multiple criteria impacts the failure scenarios identified. In this research, we compare different methods for incorporating multiple objectives into the scenario discovery process to evaluate how they impact the resulting failure scenarios. We use the Lake Tana basin in Ethiopia as a case study, where climatic and environmental uncertainties could impact multiple planned water infrastructure projects, and find that failure scenarios may vary depending on the method used to aggregate multiple criteria. Common methods used to convert multiple attributes into a single utility score can obscure connections between failure scenarios and system performance, limiting the information provided to support decision making. Applying scenario discovery over each performance metric separately provides more nuanced information regarding the relative sensitivity of the objectives to different uncertain parameters, leading to clearer insights on measures that could be taken to improve system robustness and areas where additional research might prove useful.     

彭国瑞：8年创建一个新嘉吉

这家企业似乎总是笼罩着一层神秘的面纱一它低调得令人难以置信,创立145年来,始终没有上市,而且很少接受媒体访问;它常常被斥责为“操纵粮价的幕后黑手”,被认为和另3家跨国粮商一起,操控全球粮食及诸多食品的价格。     

基于改进SMOTE的小额贷款公司客户信用风险非均衡SVM分类

研究了小额贷款公司对客户进行信用风险评估时面临的问题,构建了信用风险评估指标体系,改进了支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)对非均衡样本分类时分类超平面偏移的不足。首先分析小额贷款公司业务区域性强、信用数据来源不规范、评价标准不一致等特点,给出用于客户信用风险评估的四个维度指标。针对传统SMOTE算法在处理非均衡数据时对全部少数类样本操作的问题,提出仅对错分样本人工合成的改进思想,给出具体算法步骤。将改进算法用于某小额贷款公司客户信用风险评估案例中,分类精确度较其他算法有所提升,表明该方法的可行性和有效性。     

“现场”出真经 答案永远在现场

一人若从外部接受了许多博大精深的思想,必定把自己的思想挤压得缩成了一点点;一人若从自己的体证中得到一些简单常识,常常会成为点醒他人的神灵。2009年过半,两段因缘改变了我对人生和企业的认识。     

Slack free MEA and RDM with comprehensive efficiency measures

This paper extends two directional distance function models, the Multi-directional Efficiency Analysis (MEA) Model and the Range Directional Model (RDM), in order to account for any type of technical inefficiency, i.e. both directional and non-directional inefficiencies. We first focus on the variable returns to scale (VRS) case, because both VRS-MEA and RDM are translation invariant models, which mean that both models are able to deal with negative data. Our main result is the definition of a new comprehensive efficiency measure which is units invariant and translation invariant and covers both models. Secondly, we introduce the RDM model under constant returns to scale (CRS) together with a new comprehensive efficiency measure.     

Understanding the emergence of redistributed manufacturing: an ambidexterity perspective

Abstract

This paper extends operations strategy theory on efficiency and flexibility trade-offs to the emergent phenomenon of redistributed manufacturing (RDM). The study adopts a multiple-case design including five small and five large pharmaceutical firms. We propose that organizations can gain the efficiency benefits of centralized manufacturing and the flexibility advantages of RDM by building an ambidexterity capability. To build such a capability, large firms can structurally partition their manufacturing and supply management functions, with one sub-unit managing centralized production and the other RDM. Smaller enterprises can build an ambidexterity capability by creating the right organizational context, where multi-skilled workers switch between efficient and flexible tasks. This paper contributes to theory by explaining the emergence of RDM using an organizational ambidexterity lens, laying the groundwork for new theory development in the field. We provide managers with a practical example of how to build an ambidexterity capability to realize flexibility and efficiency advantages.     

Managing Demand Risk in Tactical Supply Chain Planning for a Global Consumer Electronics Company

We consider the problem of managing demand risk in tactical supply chain planning for a particular global consumer electronics company. The company follows a deterministic replenishment‐and‐planning process despite considerable demand uncertainty. As a possible way to formally address uncertainty, we provide two risk measures, “demand‐at‐risk” (DaR) and “inventory‐at‐risk” (IaR) and two linear programming models to help manage demand uncertainty. The first model is deterministic and can be used to allocate the replenishment schedule from the plants among the customers as per the existing process. The other model is stochastic and can be used to determine the “ideal” replenishment request from the plants under demand uncertainty. The gap between the output of the two models as regards requested replenishment and the values of the risk measures can be used by the company to reallocate capacity among different products and to thus manage demand/inventory risk.     

基于社会网络视角的企业社会责任行为相似性研究

本文利用国泰安数据库和锐思数据库中2010年-2012年的我国上市公司管理层数据、公司财务数据,以及润灵环球责任评级2010年-2012年我国A股上市公司的企业社会责任评级数据,从社会网络的角度出发,探索我国上市公司社会责任履行行为的相似性。研究结果发现,公司之间存在的社会网络会造成企业社会责任履行行为具有一定的相似性。当企业越是处于核心地位,越是容易传播信息,控制能力越强的时候,该公司同与之相关联的公司在社会责任履行行为方面越是具有相似性。这一结论为改善我国企业社会责任履行现状提供了一个全新的思考方向。     

基于RBF神经网络的财产保险公司全面风险预警系统研究

在尝试提出我国财产保险公司全面风险预警指标体系的基础上,利用RBF神经网络构建了财产保险公司全面风险预警模型。然后,对预警信号提出了相应的风险处理方案。最后,利用该RBF神经网络进行全面风险预警,结果表明该网络计算误差小、收敛迅速,网络具有良好的泛化能力。     

A vision of re-distributed manufacturing for the UK’s consumer goods industry

Abstract

The linear production of consumer goods is characterised by mass manufacture, multinational enterprises and globally dispersed supply chains. Redistributed manufacture (RDM) is an emerging topic, which seeks to enable a transition of the current linear model of production and consumption, by taking advantage of new technologies. This paper aims to explore the challenges, opportunities and further research questions to set a vision of Redistributed manufacturing for the UK’s consumer goods industry. To set this vision, a literature survey was conducted followed by a qualitative enquiry where PESTLE¹ aspects of RDM were analysed. This analysis was interpreted through a roadmap. As a result of this roadmap, four RDM characteristics (i.e. customisation, use of digital technologies, local production and the development of new business models) were identified. These characteristics helped to set the future vision of RDM in the UK’s consumer goods sector.     

基于元胞自动机的企业集团信用风险传递仿真

 企业集团作为商业银行的重要客户,其内部信用风险传递机制的仿真与预测研究对于商业银行的风险控制尤其重要。而传统的仿真方法或者没有考虑到企业集团其本身的结构特性,或者过分依赖于具体随机过程的假定,大大降低了其结论的可靠性。因此,本文引入在生物与计算机领域广泛使用的元胞模型对企业集团内部关联信用风险传递机制进行仿真与模拟。研究发现,企业集团中的信用风险传递会出现风险分散和风险扩大两种不同的效应,并且母公司可以选择对各子公司的最优控制度使得母公司的违约概率最低。     

Planning for business with China

The purpose of this article is to suggest planning approaches to the business opportunities offered by the People's Republic of China (hereafter “China”). It is directed to the company trying to determine its position with respect to China rather than to the company which has a product with impending sales prospects.     

But Will it Raise My Share Price? New Thoughts About an Old Question

In valuing any investment project or acquisition, executives must decide what discount rate to use to estimate the value of the projected cash flows. This paper argues that the traditional approach, which bases its estimate of the company’s cost of capital on the Capital Asset Pricing Model, places the company at risk. Specifically, ‘beta’ is unreliable and captures only a portion of the risk that managers and shareholders agree are important. The authors then offer an alternative measure—reflecting a company’s total risk—that they say provides a reliable estimate and is consistent with the evolving theory of strategic management.     

Ford of Britain: A diminishing role in ford of Europe

In this paper, Michael McDermott highlights Ford of Britain and its changing role in Ford of Europe's operations. A review of the literature on foreign direct investment provides a framework for evaluating Ford Motor Company's current position and future strategy in Europe. This suggests that the company is in decline and in particular, that Ford of Britain has reached a stage where foreign divestment is likely: the Iberian peninsula is emerging as an attractive strategic alternative.The author concludes that, while the UK is losing its strategic importance as a market and a production base for Ford of Europe, any key decision to divest by the parent company is likely to involve lengthy analysis and therefore give time for public policy-makers to consider possible safeguards.     

An application of the AHP in vendor selection of a telecommunications system

Vendor selection of a telecommunications system is an important problem to a telecommunications company as the telecommunications system is a long-term investment for the company and the success of telecommunications services is directly affected by the vendor selection decision. Furthermore, the vendor selection of a telecommunications system is a complex multi-person, multi-criteria decision problem. The group decision-making process can be improved by a systematic and logical approach to assess priorities based on the inputs of several people from different functional areas within the company. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) can be very useful in involving several decision-makers with different conflicting objectives to arrive at a consensus decision. In this paper, an AHP-based model is formulated and applied to a real case study to examine its feasibility in selecting a vendor for a telecommunications system. The use of the proposed model indicates that it can be applied to improve the group decision making in selecting a vendor that satisfies customer specifications. Also, it is found that the decision process is systematic and that using the proposed AHP model can reduce the time taken to select a vendor.     

基于CAPM的BOT项目“有限追索权”融资决策模型

为研究BOT项目有限追索权融资中贷款资金与股本资金在贷方和项目公司之间合理分配问题(即BOT最优融资结构),本文考虑项目公司和贷方根据CAPM方法进行投资决策,通过分析它们投资策略在利益上的冲突关系而建立一个BOT融资模型,并且用博弈论方法研究模型最优解的存在性及其性质。研究结果不仅为项目公司和贷方提供了对BOT项目融资决策的理论方法,而且为政府对BOT项目的管理提供了重要的理论工具。     

不利天气影响下“公司+农户”型订单契约设计

不利天气影响农业生产并使订单农业中各成员在履约过程中遭遇不可控风险,针对这一问题,构建了由风险厌恶的农户与风险中性的公司组成的两级农产品供应链随机利润模型,在条件风险价值(CVaR)准则下,建立了具有风险厌恶特性农户的CVaR决策模型,比较分析了不利天气对集中式与分散式决策模式下最优决策的影响。研究发现不利天气降低了供应链绩效而农户的风险厌恶特性则加剧了双边际效应,对此,设计了一种与天气指数和农户风险厌恶度相关的改进收益共享契约。研究表明:公司可依据不利天气影响的结果来设计订单契约以激励双方成为"收益共享、风险共担"的统一体,此外,在实施该订单契约后可实现农产品供应链的完美共赢协调,这弥补了分散式决策下的效率损失并增强了供应链系统的稳健性。     

Reducing Risk on Machinery: A Field Evaluation Pilot Study of Risk Assessment

A pilot evaluation of the ANSI B11-TR3 Machinery Risk Assessment/Risk Reduction (RA/RR) Guideline was conducted. The TR3 guideline was introduced into five companies on one machinery system in each company with a second machine system serving as a control. A pre-post investigation was performed with safety conditions measured pre and post in both treatment and control and with risk reduction score measured only in the treatment machine system. NIOSH provided a commercially available risk assessment software to facilitate the process. Evaluation measures included avoided injuries, reduced exposure to machinery hazards, pretest and posttest knowledge demonstration, assessment of group processes following training, correct implementation of the guidelines, and degree to which risk reduction recommendations were implemented. The qualitative results of this pilot effort appear to be the best indicators for the way ahead in industrial machine risk assessment. All companies indicated that they derived value in participating in this study and in conducting risk assessments. Quantitative study results suggest that: (1) as measured by the knowledge of the participants before and after the TR3 training, the guidelines can be effective at enhancing employee knowledge of safe machine operations and (2) although the injury reduction trends appear successful, the small sample size in the study size should be considered in interpreting these early results.