A Probabilistic Analysis of the Passive–Restraint Question

The benefits and costs of automobile safety policies are compared using a methodology which explicitly quantifies the uncertainties. The policies addressed include both voluntary and compulsory manual belt usage, nondetachable passive (automatic) seat belts, and air bags. Estimates of the effectiveness and usage rates of these alternatives were obtained in the form of subjective probability distributions from eight experts. Their opinions were combined using equal weighting. The direct economic costs of the technologies were also estimated probabilistically. The number of lives saved and the net benefits of the policies were calculated probabilistically for a range of values of lifesaving. Probabilistic computations and sensitivity analysis were performed by the Demos modelling system using Monte Carlo simulation. The results are highly uncertain and quite sensitive to the value of lifesaving. Nevertheless, they imply that repeal of the passive-restraint standard is defensible according to the net-benefit criterion only if a relatively low value is assigned to lifesaving. The degree of uncertainty emphasizes the potential value of demonstration programs to obtain better information.     

The Value of Improved National Exposure Information for Perchloroethylene (Perc): A Case Study for Dry Cleaners

Opportunities to improve our information about risk continue to arise and lead decision makers to indirectly address the issue of the value of improved information through resource allocation decisions. Statistical decision analysis techniques provide an analytical framework for valuing information explicitly in the context of regulatory decision making. This paper provides estimates of the value of improved national estimates of perchloroethylene (perc) exposure from U.S. dry cleaners in the context of EPA's recently promulgated National Emissions Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) with emphasis on exposure information. Consistent with the NESHAP decision, we relied on EPA's technology and economic assessments. In this first cut analysis, estimates of the exposures of workers, consumers of dry cleaning services, and the general public are probabilistically characterized to reflect uncertainty about exposure and potency. We consider the net benefits of the different control options by assessing the associated changes in the total annual population risks and valuing them in monetary terms, with no constraints placed on maximum individual risks. The results suggest that the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) about potency exceeds the EVPI about exposure. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the choices of the valuation parameters and distributions used to characterize uncertainty in the model affect the estimates of the value of information.     

Aggregate, Disaggregate, and Hybrid Analyses of Ecological Risk Perceptions

Laypeople's perceptions of health and safety risks have been widely studied, but only a few studies have addressed perceptions of ecological hazards. We assembled a list of 39 attributes of ecological hazards from the literatures on comparative risk assessment, ecological health, environmental conservation and management, environmental psychology, and risk perception. In Study 1, 125 laypeople evaluated 83 hazards on subsets of this attribute set. Factor analysis of attribute ratings (averaged over participants) revealed six oblique factors: ecological impacts, human impacts, human benefits, aesthetic impacts, scientific understanding, and controllability. These factors predicted mean judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, acceptability, and regulatory strictness. In Study 2, 30 laypeople each evaluated 34 hazards on 17 attributes and 3 dependent variables. Aggregate-level factor analysis of these data replicated the appropriate portion of the factor solution and yielded similar regression results. Parallel analyses at the individual-participant level yielded factors that explained less variance in judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, and acceptability. However, the decrease in explanatory power was much less than is often reported for disaggregate-level analyses of psychometric data. This discrepancy illustrates the importance of distinguishing between the level of analysis (aggregate versus disaggregate) and the focus of analysis (distinctions among hazards versus distinctions among participants). In a hybrid analysis, aggregate-level factor scores predicted individual participants' riskiness judgments reasonably well. Psychometric studies such as these provide a sound empirical basis for selecting attributes of ecological hazards for use in comparative risk assessment.     

Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Application of the Inoperability Input-Output Model with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has mandated all regions to "carefully weigh the benefit of each homeland security endeavor and only allocate resources where the benefit of reducing risk is worth the amount of additional cost" (DHS, 2006, p. 64). This mandate illuminates the need to develop methods for systemic valuation of preparedness measures that support strategic decision making. This article proposes an analysis method that naturally emerges from the structure of the inoperability input-output model (IIM) through which various regional- and sector-specific impact analyses can be cost-effectively integrated for natural and man-made disasters. The IIM is described extensively in a companion paper (Lian et al., 2007). Its reliance on data classifications structured by the U.S. Census Bureau and its extensive accounting of economic interdependencies enables us to decompose a risk analysis activity, perform independent assessments, and properly integrate the assessment for a systemic valuation of risk and risk management activity. In this article, we account for and assess some of the major impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita to demonstrate this use of the IIM and illustrate hypothetical, reduced impacts resulting from various strategic preparedness decisions. Our results indicate the capability of the IIM to guide the decision-making processes involved in developing a preparedness strategy.     

A Stochastic,Psychometric Valuation Model for Personnel Selection Systems*

This paper describes a method for the valuation of personnel selection systems that is based on contributions from accounting, utility theory, psychometric techniques, Markov processes, labor economics, and present-value analysis. The model developed here can be used by managers to assess the usefulness of proposed selection procedures. It extends previous work in the area by including both the stochastic nature of the employment process and the time value of the associated costs and benefits.     

Perceptions of Ecological Risk Associated with Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) Infestations in Banff and Kootenay National Parks of Canada

Western Canada is experiencing an unprecedented outbreak of the mountain pine beetle (MPB). The MPB has the potential to impact some of Canada's national parks by affecting park ecosystems and the visitor experience. Controls have been initiated in some parks to lessen the impacts and to prevent the beetle from spreading beyond park boundaries. We examine the perception of ecological risk associated with MPB in two of Canada's national parks, the factors affecting perceptions of risk, and the influence of risk judgments on support for controlling MPB outbreaks in national parks. Data were collected using two studies of park visitors: a mail survey in 2003 and an onsite survey in 2005. The MPB was rated as posing a greater risk to the health and productivity of park ecosystems than anthropogenic hazards and other natural disturbance agents. Visitors who were familiar with MPB rated the ecological and visitor experience impacts as negative, unacceptable, and eliciting negative emotion. Knowledge and residency were the most consistent predictors of risk judgments. Of knowledge, risk, and demographic variables, only sex and risk to ecosystem domains influenced support for controlling the MPB in national parks. Implications for managing MPB in national parks, visitor education, and ecological integrity are discussed.     

基于满意度BLP-DEA的区域可持续发展系统效率评价研究

为了实现生态环境保护与社会经济发展的动态平衡,在对环境造成的损害最少的情况下同时获得最大的社会经济效益,是实现可持续发展的紧迫和关键问题。本文以生态子系统为上层(Leader)、经济-社会子系统为下层(Follower),构建考虑可持续发展的评价系统。通过引入公共权重、区间效率和满意度,构建基于max-min满意度的双层规划数据包络模型(BLP-DEA),并将其应用于中国省际可持续发展系统的效率评价与满意度研究。结果表明：(1) 相比于BLP-DEA模型,本文构建的基于满意度BLP-DEA模型是一种令大多数决策单元能够接受自身效率值结果的评价方法,因此导致中国整体经济-社会子系统效率值相较于生态子系统效率值偏低。(2)在满足全局可持续发展系统满意度最大化的前提下,各地区的效率值体现出显著的地域性特征,其中生态子系统效率值以西部地区最优,经济-社会子系统效率值以东部地区最优,可持续发展系统综合效率值以东部地区最优。     

Canada Wide Standard for Particulate Matter and Ozone: Cost-Benefit Analysis Using a Life Quality Index

The adverse impacts of particulate air pollution and ground-level ozone on public health and the environment have motivated the development of Canada Wide Standards (CWS) on air quality. In cost-benefit analysis of air-quality options, valuation of reduction in mortality is a critical step as it accounts for almost 80% of the total benefits and any bias in its evaluation can significantly skew the outcome of the analysis. The overestimation of benefits is a source of concern since it has the potential of diverting valuable resources from other needs to support broader health care objectives, education, and social services that contribute to enhanced quality of life. We have developed a framework of reasoning for the assessment of risk-reduction initiatives that would support the public interest and enhance safety and quality of life. This article presents the Life Quality Index (LQI) as a tool to quantify the level of expenditure beyond which it is no longer justifiable to spend resources in the name of safety. It is shown that the LQI is a compound social indicator comprising societal wealth and longevity, and it is also equivalent to a utility function consistent with the basic principles of welfare economics and decision analysis. The LQI approach overcomes several shortcomings of the method used by the CWS Development Committee and provides guidance on the compliance costs that can be justified to meet the Standards.     

A call for action: The impact of business model innovation on business ecosystems,society and planet

The impact of business model innovation (BMI) on business ecosystems, society, and planet is of growing theoretical and practical importance for strategic management. Increasing sustainability pressures warrant a better understanding of the impact of companies’ BMI through a more comprehensive analysis of innovation and its consequences. We discuss four foci of innovation (BMI, sustainable BMI, ecosystem innovation, and sustainable ecosystem innovation) to broaden the conceptualization of innovation and its economic, societal, and natural environmental impacts. We call for scholarship examining the impact of BMI to advance knowledge through research on value destruction and the dynamics of BMI over time.     

Evaluating patents using damage awards of infringement lawsuits: A case study

As the era of knowledge economics rose, the patent became one kind of knowledge outcome. This study aimed at the basis of the patent law and proposed an integrated evaluator for patent management. The damage award of a patent infringement lawsuit was deemed to be the legal value of the patent. 65 effective samples were extracted from 4289 patent infringement lawsuits retrieved from the U.S. district courts. 17 indicators were summarized to quantitatively describe the dimensions of the patents. Back-Propagation Neural Network was applied to build the patent valuation model, wherein the 17 indicators were the inputs and the damage award was the output. The patent valuation model was validated to be feasible by error analysis. The integrated evaluator for patents was then established by transforming the output of the patent valuation model via the Z-score. The proposed integrated evaluator accommodated to the patent management effectively.     

The Roles of Group Membership, Beliefs, and Norms in Ecological Risk Perception

Variability in ecological risk perceptions was investigated by surveying members of four stakeholder groups commonly involved in environmental policy debates. Fifty-six individuals from government, industry, environmental, and general-public groups completed a risk-perception survey in which they evaluated 34 environmental hazards on 17 attributes and also evaluated the riskiness and acceptability of each hazard. In addition, participants reported their environmental beliefs and norms using Dunlap et al.'s revised New Ecological Paradigm Scale and modified versions of Schwartz's Awareness of Consequences and Personal Norms Scales. Group membership was predictive of participants' scores on the belief and norm scales. Factor analysis of attribute ratings (averaged across participants) revealed the anticipated three oblique factors: ecological impacts, scientific understanding, and aesthetic impacts. Factor patterns were very similar for the four stakeholder groups. Factors from the aggregate analysis were predictive of individuals' riskiness judgments, but these relationships were moderated by participants' group membership, beliefs, and norms. Compared to members of other groups, members of the general public placed less emphasis on ecological impacts and more emphasis on the other two factors when judging the ecological riskiness of hazards. To our knowledge, these results represent the first formal tests of interactions between hazard characteristics and participant characteristics in determining riskiness judgments, and illustrate how traditional psychometric analyses can be successfully coupled with individual-difference measures to improve the understanding of risk perception.     

What Is a Life Worth? Robustness of VSL Values from Contingent Valuation Surveys

The value of a statistical life (VSL) is a key input for estimating the benefits of policies that save lives. Several recent studies have obtained estimates of the VSL from contingent valuation surveys, i.e., by asking people to say how much they would pay to reduce their risk of dying. This article examines statistical factors that may influence the estimates of the VSL obtained from such surveys. We examine the importance of distributional assumptions, the choice of the welfare statistics of interest, the procedure for computing them, outliers, undesirable response effects, and internal validity of the willingness-to-pay (WTP) responses. We illustrate the importance of these factors using dichotomous-choice and open-ended WTP data from four recent contingent valuation surveys.     

资源政策调整对减排和环境福利影响——以煤炭资源税改革为例

随着环境污染加剧,我国减排形势日益严峻,但目前资源政策设计过度关注社会经济影响,较少涉及减排和环境福利,不利于生态文明建设和社会可持续发展.本文构建动态可计算一般均衡模型(dynamic computable general equilibrium,简称动态CGE模型),以煤炭资源税改革为研究对象模拟资源政策调整的长期影响,分别采用煤炭资源税率调整和资源价值补偿政策场景,探索资源政策调整对促进减排和改善环境福利的作用.研究表明:总体而言,资源政策调整有利于促进减排和环境福利,但不同政策方案设计产生的影响差异性较大;煤炭资源税率提高会在一定程度上抑制资源消费,提高资源利用效率和人均资源盈余,降低环境损失;而资源价值补偿政策实施将对我国环境质量改善产生积极作用,可以有效提高环境福利;因此,在减排和环境福利综合视角下,煤炭资源税改革必须注重资源政策方案设计的协调性和完整性,才能有效发挥资源政策对环境系统的有效引导和激励作用.     

Customer‐Base Concentration and Inventory Efficiencies: Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector

What is the link between customer‐base concentration and inventory efficiencies in the manufacturing sector? Using hand‐collected data from 10‐K Filings, we find that manufacturers with more concentrated customer bases hold fewer inventories for less time and are less likely to end up with excess inventories, as indicated by the lower likelihood and magnitude of inventory write‐downs and reversals. Using disaggregated inventory disclosures, we find that inventory efficiencies primarily flow through the finished goods inventory account, while raw material efficiencies are offset by higher work‐in‐process holdings and longer work‐in‐process cycles. In additional analysis, we document a valuation premium for more concentrated manufacturers after controlling for other firm characteristics, including default risk and cost of capital estimates. We conclude that investors trade off the costs and benefits of relationships with a limited number of major customers and, on balance, consider customer‐base concentration as a net positive for firm valuation. Overall, our study adds to interdisciplinary research in accounting and operations management by shedding new light on the relevance of major customer disclosures for fundamental analysis and valuation in the manufacturing sector.     

In search of complementarities within and across platform ecosystems: Complementors’ relative standing and performance in mobile apps ecosystems

Firms can benefit immensely from participating in digital platform ecosystems—specifically, from the shared technological assets and market opportunities offered by the platform owner. Yet, while aligning with the platform ecosystem rules, each member must decide whether to specialize in a given platform ecosystem or across multiple platform ecosystems to capture these benefits. We examine two common patterns through which platform ecosystem members (i.e., complementors) specialize within and across platform ecosystems, and the relative impact on their market performance. We look at the high relative standing of the complementary product as a reflection of complementors' specialization in the given product category or platform ecosystem. We then theorize that having products with high relative standing in a single product category and a single platform ecosystem, together, diminishes complementors’ market performance over time. Similarly, high relative standing in multiple platform ecosystems and multiple product categories, at the same time, adversely impacts the market performance. We find supportive evidence for our hypotheses, in a panel dataset of mobile app developers. This paper contributes to the burgeoning stream of research that investigates the trade-offs faced by complementors, suggesting that complementor strategies are more complex than simply trying to maximize market reach.     

考虑残值变化和顾客异质性的零售商定价与库存决策

本文研究策略型消费者对零售商的定价和库存决策的影响。与以往的研究假设残值固定不变,且消费者均为策略型消费者不同的是,本文考虑了顾客的异质性以及残值由清仓期库存决定这一特点。本文的研究表明:在消费者均为策略型消费者,且清楚零售商将采取残值定价策略的情况下,零售商可以通过数量保证策略来提高自身的期望利润,降低库存订货量。在考虑顾客异质性的条件下,当零售商采取估值定价策略时,零售商的最大期望利润与短视型消费者在市场上的比例成正相关。并且,存在一个唯一的阈值点,当短视型消费者在市场上的比例高于这一阈值点时,估值定价策略优于保留价格定价策略,反之,则保留价格定价策略更优。     

Managing the Risk of Global Climate Catastrophe: An Uncertainty Analysis

Despite much scientific progress over many decades, the nature of global climate change remains highly uncertain, and the possibility of global climate catastrophe is one of the main concerns in public debates about global climate change. In this paper, we present a model which incorporates the risk of climate catastrophe in an analysis of greenhouse gas abatement strategy. In this model, the timing and severity of climate catastrophe are treated probabilistically. The impacts of key uncertainties on optimal policy are analyzed, and the expected values of additional information that reduces the uncertainty associated with the world economy, carbon cycle, climate change, and climate damage are estimated.     

Exposure to Persistent Organochlorines in Canadian Breast Milk: A Probabilistic Assessment

Exposure to persistent organochlorines in breast milk was estimated probabilistically for Canadian infants. Noncancer health effects were evaluated by comparing the predicted exposure distributions to published guidance values. For chemicals identified as potential human carcinogens, cancer risks were evaluated using standard methodology typically applied in Canada, as well as an alternative method developed under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. Potential health risks associated with exposure to persistent organochlorines were quantitatively and qualitatively weighed against the benefits of breast-feeding. Current levels of the majority of contaminants identified in Canadian breast milk do not pose unacceptable risks to infants. Benefits of breast-feeding are well documented and qualitatively appear to outweigh potential health concerns associated with organochlorine exposure. Furthermore, the risks of mortality from not breast-feeding estimated by Rogan and colleagues exceed the theoretical cancer risks estimated for infant exposure to potential carcinogens in Canadian breast milk. Although levels of persistent compounds have been declining in Canadian breast milk, potentially significant risks were estimated for exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls, dibenzo-p-dioxins, and dibenzofurans. Follow-up work is suggested that would involve the use of a physiologically based toxicokinetic model with probabilistic inputs to predict dioxin exposure to the infant. A more detailed risk analysis could be carried out by coupling the exposure estimates with a dose–response analysis that accounts for uncertainty.     

基于交叉上市股票的市场估值效率测度与估值模式分析

本文针对交叉上市“同质”股票的价格差异现象与市场估值效率测度,基于Fama-French三因子模型以及Campbell的相对估值思想,运用随机前沿分析理论(SFA)构建股价与估值因素的生产函数关系,并利用SFA技术效率构建了有效市场理论概念下的市场估值效率指数,从相对估值效率的视角,定量测度市场效率的水平,分析市场估值模式及其演变规律,为市场效率与估值模式的定量研究,以及市场间的比较研究提供了新的视角和方法。基于A+H交叉上市公司股票样本的实证研究得出了两个市场的估值效率及估值模式从早期的明显差异到近期趋同的变化趋势。     

Characterizing Perception of Ecological Risk

Relatively little attention has been paid to the role of human perception and judgment in ecological risk management. This paper attempts to characterize perceived ecological risk, using the psychometric paradigm developed in the domain of human health risk perception. The research began by eliciting a set of scale characteristics and risk items (e.g., technologies, actions, events, beliefs) from focus group participants. Participants in the main study were 68 university students who completed a survey instrument that elicited ratings for each of 65 items on 30 characteristic scales and one scale regarding general risk to natural environments. The results are presented in terms of mean responses over individuals for each scale and item combination. Factor analyses show that five factors characterize the judgment data. These have been termed: impact on species, human benefits, impact on humans, avoidability, and knowledge of impacts. The factor results correspond with initial expectations and provide a plausible characterization of judgments regarding ecological risk. Some comparisons of mean responses for selected individual items are also presented.