对80年代以来我国妇女初婚初育间隔的分析

初婚—初育间隔体现了头胎生育时间早晚和初婚后避孕的情况。我国大部分夫妇都是在有了第一个孩子以后才采取避孕措施。７５％的人在结婚的第二年内生了第一个孩子。城市和农村妇女的初婚—初育间隔模式是相似的,但城市妇女的间隔略比农村妇女长些。生存分析显示居住地（农村或城市）、文化程度、初婚年龄对初婚—初育间隔有显著影响     

20世纪90年代我国婚育模式的初步分析

20世纪90年代以来,中国女性人口的平均初婚年龄平稳缓慢上升,育龄妇女平均初育年龄在波动中小幅度上升,已婚育龄妇女的平均初婚初育间隔呈波动式扩大。     

中国女性初婚模式变动趋势研究

20世纪80年代以来我国女性的初婚模式发生了显著的变化。本文使用人口普查资料、全国1%人口抽样调查数据、人口变动情况抽样调查数据以及IPUMS数据,通过女性平均初婚年龄、曾婚比例、年龄别初婚概率、终身结婚期待率和预期单身寿命等指标探究我国女性自20世纪80年代以来的初婚模式变动情况。研究发现30多年来我国女性平均初婚年龄在波动中上升,到2017年女性平均初婚年龄已经达到25.60岁,而教育程度的提高会推迟女性进入婚姻的时间,接受过高等教育的女性平均初婚年龄明显高于未受过高等教育的女性;另外,通过对各教育程度平均初婚年龄标准化与分解看到随着时间的推移,教育对女性的平均初婚年龄影响作用增大;20-30岁年龄段女性婚姻推迟明显,曾婚比例不断降低,但女性终身未婚比例很低,其中受过高等教育的女性婚姻推迟现象最为明显,但其自身的结婚意愿并未降低,大部分女性只是推迟结婚时间,并不是不结婚。对净婚姻表各指标进行计算发现1982-2010年女性的年龄别初婚概率下降,尤其在20-30岁年龄段下降明显,初婚峰值年龄推迟,结婚年龄集中现象减弱。终身结婚期待率下降速度趋缓,随着女性初婚年龄的推迟,2010年27...     

初婚初育史对育龄妇女二孩生育间隔的影响

由于常规生存模型假定删截和事件发生相互独立,导致研究者常常忽略删截案例中可能还包含经历事件的风险为零的长期存活者。忽略这一总体异质性会导致有偏的参数估计。文章介绍并应用分割总体生存模型来探究初婚初育史对中国育龄妇女的二孩生育间隔的影响。结果发现,在控制个体特征和所处文化背景特性的情况下,对于有可能生育二孩的妇女,初婚年龄的推迟、初育为女孩的情况都将导致二孩生育间隔的缩短;所属初育队列越晚、初育孩子健康、初育后哺乳时间越长、间隔期内人工流产次数越多则都会显著延长二孩生育间隔。     

我国少数民族妇女的初婚变动分析

近年来,少数民族人口迅速增长越来越引起人们的关注。掌握少数民族人口动态变化,是我们了解少数民族人口增长原因,把握今后变化趋势及采取相应对策的前提。本文研究的是人口动态的一个方面——初婚变动。首先叙述了少数民族37年(1950—1986年)来总和初婚率的变动,并提出了判定年平均总和初婚率和终身已婚率关系的一个准则;然后对少数民     

90年代中国人口婚姻状况变动分析

90年代中国人口婚姻观念有所改变 ,婚姻关系总的来看是比较稳定的。已婚人口比例高 ,离婚、丧偶人口比例相对较少 ,终身未婚者甚微 ,晚婚已蔚然成风 ,但是人口婚姻状况的变动走向也反映出一些社会问题 ,如独身人口的不断增多、大龄未婚人口难以婚配且性别结构失衡、城镇离婚率持续上升、鳏寡老人的晚年关怀 ,等等。这些都将在一定程度上影响到社会安定和人民生活 ,应采取有效措施加以解决     

中国1970年以来二孩生育间隔变动及影响因素分析

文章利用121县人口监测系统大样本微观历时数据,分析了我国1970年以来二孩生育间隔的变化趋势及影响因素.研究发现:二孩生育间隔经历了上世纪90年代前的长期稳定、1990～2005年间的持续上升和2006年至今的缓慢下降,这种历史变动与我国生育间隔规定呈明显动态关联.文章认为,我国生育间隔规定是针对"早、密、多"生育模式的政策调控,在当前群众主动推迟生育、城乡普遍晚婚晚育、低生育水平长时期持续的背景下,生育间隔规定对生育行为的影响力和作用空间在减小,继续执行以"晚、稀、少"为导向的现行生育间隔规定的前提已不复存在.全面二孩政策实施后70后人群的大间隔生育将是未来不可忽视的一种生育特点,对生育间隔的关注应从人口调控的政策导向逐渐过渡到健康导向.     

80年代以来中国妇女社会地位分析

８０年代以来中国妇女社会地位分析孟秋丽妇女在社会生活中的地位如何是衡量一个社会的文明和进步的重要标准之一。新中国成立以来，特别是改革开放以来，中国妇女摆脱了千百年来封建思想的束缚，在各行各业的建设中作出了巨大贡献，成为推动社会发展和进步的重要力量。人...     

利用初育年龄测度终身生育率的探索

理论上终身生育率是衡量妇女生育水平的理想指标,但由于时滞问题而难以运用;实践中采用的总和生育率用不同年龄妇女生育率加总进行替代,虽然简便易行,却存在一定偏差。与现有的利用总和生育率推算终身生育率的研究有别,本文尝试利用真实育龄妇女队列的初育年龄测度终身生育率。依据1950²011年育龄妇女的年龄别生育率数据,发现初育年龄与终身生育率之间具有显著的负相关关系并且具有较好的拟合效果。这表明,应用初育年龄可以及时提供妇女终身生育率的可靠信息。     

中国女姓初婚、初育年龄变动与人口控制研究

一、资料来源及说明 女性平均初婚年龄与平均初育年龄是描述女性婚育状况的重要指标,也是控制人口出生的重要参数。1982年全国1‰人口生育率抽样调查(资料仅到1982年上半年)使中国第一次获得这方面的完整准确的资料。1987年的1％人口抽样调查及1988年的     

我国生育政策对二孩生育间隔影响的分层模型研究

我国不同生育政策类型地区二孩生育间隔的差异,既受到地区经济、社会和生育政策的影响,又受到育龄妇女个人和家庭因素的影响。分层模型结果表明,地区间生育间隔差异占我国二孩生育间隔总差异的30．54％。我国生育政策对不同政策类型地区二孩生育间隔差异的影响程度基本在20％以下,不同地区经济和社会发展的不平等状况是导致地区间二孩生育间隔差异的主要原因。     

论青年女性流动人口初育间隔与人口控制——来自厦门流动人口家庭问卷调查的启示

青年女性流动人口实际生育行为的控制对于人口规模与结构的控制,起着至关重要的作用。而生育时间的选择作为影响流动人口生育实践的一个重要因素,体现在对各孩次生育间隔的控制上。本文在描述分析的基础上,应用Cox比例风险模型,主要对厦门市青年女性流动人口初育间隔的影响因素进行估计和检验,并在总结分析的基础上对流动人口控制问题提出几点对策思考。     

Changes in Cohabitation After the Birth of the First Child in Chile

In Chile, as in other Latin American countries, most children born outside of marriage are born to currently cohabiting couples. After having their first child, parents could marry, separate, or experience no change in union status. This paper explores changes in cohabitation that occur after the birth of the first child in Chile and analyzes how these changes might be associated with the birth of children and socioeconomic status. The data come from the New Chilean Family Survey, a small longitudinal survey administered to women after giving birth (n = 564). I use life tables and event history techniques to assess changes in respondent union status up to 4 years after the birth of the first child, and to study the transitions out of cohabitation. The results indicate that the unions in the sample are relatively stable, because less than 40 percent of cohabiters change status over the period of 4 years. However, marriage still appears to be a more stable type of union than cohabitation. Among cohabiters, there is evidence of a nonlinear relation between union stability and educational attainment, because the most stable unions are the unions of women with a high school diploma and not the unions of women who did not complete their secondary education. Having planned the first birth and the birth of an additional child seems to consolidate the cohabiting union, because these variables are not related to the entry into marriage, but they are related to lower risks of dissolution. These findings suggest that the Chilean case differs from the cases of Europe and the United States.     

Fertility Following an Unintended First Birth

Research on unintended fertility tends to focus on births as isolated events. This article expands previous research by examining the relationship between early unintended childbearing and subsequent fertility dynamics in the United States. Data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth show that 27.5% of mothers report an unintended first birth. We use event history methods to show that these women are significantly more likely than women with an intended first birth to have an unintended second birth than to have either no second birth or an intended second birth, net of sociodemographic characteristics. An unintended first birth also increases the risk of having an unintended third birth relative to no birth or an intended birth, independent of the intendedness of the second birth. We conclude that early unintended fertility is a strong signal of high risk for subsequent unintended fertility.     

Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle

In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women’s first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control for the observed differences between women who were and were not displaced. To account for the differences in the composition of the women who were displaced in a downturn and the women who were displaced in an upswing, we use a double weighting estimator. Results show that the extent to which job displacement has adverse effects on fertility depends on the business cycle. The first-birth rates were much lower for women who were displaced in an economic downturn than for those who lost a job in an economic upturn. This result cannot be explained by changes in the observed characteristics of the displaced women over the business cycle.     

Birth control techniques in China

This article describes the major birth control techniques in use in China, based on data from a contraceptive prevalence study conducted in September, 1982. 118 million of the 170 million married women of child bearing age use birth control. IUD insertion accounts for 50.2% of birth control methods used, tubal ligation accounts for 25.4%, vas deferens ligation 10.0% oral contraceptives (OCs) 8.2%, and condoms 2.0%. A table of clinical data on 9 China made IUDs reveals that pregnancy rates range from 0 (V Cu-300 model) to 5.83% (mixed ring model). A method of IUD insertion immediately after delivery has been researched and adopted, using a silastic Delta IUD with barium added to reduce the high postpartum expulsion rate. fixing the IUD by sutures during Cesarean section has also been developed. Electronmicroscopic studies of the endometrium of women who have used a stainless steel IUD for more than 20 years showes no tendency towards malignancy, nor negative effects on the endocrine functions of the ovaries. 28 million Chinese women have accepted sterilization as of June, 1982. Local anesthesia and the use of acupuncture have reduced complications due to general anesthesia seen previously. Sterilization by means of chemically induced adhesion of Fallopian tube tissue has also been performed successfully; however, this method makes later anastomosis difficult, and is not suitable for young women with only 1 child. Fallopian tube occlusion by means of a silver clip has been performed in 1,128 cases, with a pregnancy rate of only .85%. 10.62 million men have accepted sterilization. While most of the procedures are val ligations, 300,000 men have been sterilized by direct injection of an adhesive agent throuh the skin of the scrotum. No increase in auto immune or vascular disease has been found. 3 low-dose OCs, used since 1969, have proven to be reliable and freer of side effects than higher-dose compounds. In addition, longterm OCs containing quinestrol have been used since 1969 with a success rate of 98.3% women-year. These pills are taken 1x monthly. R and D priority will be given be given to monthly injectable contraceptives; megestrol and norethindrone are the compounds most preferable. In trials so far, the effective rate has been 99.9% with mild side effects. Gossypol, a male contraceptive, has shown an antifertility effect in 99% of 8000 cases studied; however, hypokalemia and irreversibility of spermatogenesis were reported in some cases. Vacuum suction is the most common method for abortion, but Radix Trichosanthis and lilac daphne terpine, traditional abortifacients, anre acceptable for 1st trimester abortions. Prostaglandins are also used.     

The Interrelations Between Cohabitation,Marriage and First Birth in Germany and Sweden

We study the interrelationships between union-formation forms and fertility in Swedish and West German female cohorts born in 1949–1971. We apply simultaneous hazard models, permitting the presence of correlated unobserved heterogeneity. This method allows us to control for country-specific composition of the population with respect to several socio-economic variables, as well as with respect to unobserved factors jointly affecting childbearing and union formation behavior. Our results confirm that partnership formation and the transition to parenthood are partially interchangeable. Net of those selection effects, we find that the impact of being in a union on first birth is higher in Sweden than in Germany, in particular for cohabitation.