Women's Employment in Transition, 1992–4: the Case of Poland

Since the early 1990s the Polish economy has, in the move towards a market economy, undergone substantial economic reforms which resulted initially in a severe recession and notably in widespread unemployment. In a country where women have traditionally played a major role in the workforce it is pertinent to ask how their role has been affected during the early years of transition to a market economy, what factors explain this, and what their employment prospects are likely to be in a free market economy. After sketching the key features of women's employment in Poland pre-transition the article then addresses these questions using data drawn mainly from the Labour Force Surveys of 1992 and 1994. It finds that women's labour market position has been changing and in 1994 could be said to be mixed: while on the one hand it seems to be deteriorating (rising rates of inactivity and unemployment, the feminization of part-time work), on the other women seem to have been relatively protected from the worst effects of marketization and are in a better position than men according to some unemployment indicators. Prospects for women's employment under a free market economy also appear to be mixed, with much depending on whether the Polish government introduces a framework of national measures to support and encourage women who enter into paid employment.     

Measuring labour absorption problems in developing countries: Limitations of the concept of unemployment

The “standard” unemployment rate is often criticized for omitting large numbers of people who are classified as employed or as not economically inactive, when in fact their situation amounts to unemployment. The author discusses the limitations of this standard definition for developing countries. After reviewing the methodological and statistical problems posed by the standard rate, he looks at the reality behind the words in contexts where the labour market is highly segmented. He shows that the standard unemployment rate underestimates excess labour supply and is a poor indicator of the Decent Work deficit, and considers its limitations in guiding economic policy.     

Regional Economic Performance and Net Migration Rates in Russia, 1993–20021

Soviet legacies and uneven economic distress make post‐Soviet Russia an especially interesting case in which to assess the effects of economic performance on regional net migration rates. Random effects models of net regional migration in 77 Russian regions from 1993 to 2002 indicate that mean wages and unemployment levels have substantial and predictable effects. These effects have several dynamic aspects: changes in mean wages (but not changes in unemployment) exert effects independently of wage and unemployment levels, the effect of unemployment decreases over time, and the effect of wage levels appears to increase. Overall, the results suggest a tendency toward regional equilibrium with respect to employment following the initial shock of Soviet collapse and market reforms, but continuing disequilibrium with respect to wages.     

UNEMPLOYMENT AND OTHER MEASURES OF LABOR MARKET INEFFICIENCY: A COMPARISON OF U.K. AND U.S. LABOR MARKETS 1931–96

Although unemployment is often used as a measure of labor market inefficiency, economic theory indicates that market inefficiency is determined by both the gap between and the elasticities of supply and demand. Using time series data for the United States and United Kingdom, this article investigates how good the unemployment rate is as a measure of labor market inefficiency by calculating the deadweight loss associated with unemployment rates over time. Results show that the loss arising from unemployment is low across time and countries and that the unemployment rate is often a weak proxy for comparing labor market inefficiency. (JEL J6 )     

Labor-market behavior of long-term unemployed: A multidisciplinary approach

In the beginning of the eighties unemployment increased dramatically in the Netherlands. Since 1984 short-term unemployment has decreased, while at the same time long-term unemployment has continued to rise, absolutely as well as relatively. The issue of long-term unemployment is current and no solution seems to be in sight. Scientific research in the Netherlands on unemployment has put emphasis for a long time on the labor-market behavior of the unemployed. Labor-market behavior has in the 70s and 80s been investigated by researchers from various disciplines, starting from different notions of labor market behavior, applying various models and different methodologies. The disciplinary approach is therefore dominant, not only in the Netherlands but in other countries as well. In this article we have tried to elaborate a multidisciplinary model, in which economic, sociological and psychological approaches with respect to labor market behavior have been integrated into one conceptual framework. In order to do so, we have developed a non-recursive model of labor-market behavior. This model was estimated and tested applying a simultaneous estimation procedure (as implemented in the Linear Structural Relations, LISREL-program). Results show that the multidisciplinary perspective is not only theoretically appealing, but also has some empirical advantages.     

Immigrant Populations and the Labour Market in Greece at the Beginning of the Twenty‐First Century

Our purpose in undertaking this research is to methodically map the labour market circumstances of the main immigrant groups in Greece. We classify all of the Districts of Greece into three categories (Diverse, Mixed and Unmixed) according to the ethnic composition of each District. We measure how the employment status of the immigrants varies (1) according to the ethnic group and sex of the immigrant, and (2) according to the ethnic composition and economic structure of a District. In general, the majority of immigrants exhibit lower unemployment and higher economic activity rates than the indigenous Greeks. Three immigrant groups (Albanians, Bulgarians and “Other”), which make up two‐thirds of the foreign‐born population of Greece, have lower unemployment rates than the national average, and lower rates than Greeks as well. The poorest labour market outcomes are observed in Unmixed and Mixed Districts, whereas Diverse Districts are better off. At the regional level, the most disadvantaged Geographical Department is the Ionian Islands, since it presents the highest unemployment rates for the general population for both sexes. With regard to sex‐differential unemployment across immigrant groups, we found that women exhibit higher unemployment than men in almost every ethnic group.     

Factory women,redundancy and the search for work: toward a reconceptualisation of employment and unemployment

A number of social scientists (see for example, Allen et al., 1986; Brown, 1984; Purcell, 1985; Purcell et al., 1986; Roberts et al., 1985) have drawn attention to the way in which patterns of working have changed radically in recent years suggesting that we need to rethink and reconceptualise with regard to work, employment and unemployment. This paper examines these issues in Sweden where recession in the early eighties and economic restructuring, similar to the experience in other Western countries, have affected individuals’relation to the labour market. It is our view that the effects of these developments (have) affect(ed) women and immigrants differently. It is furthermore our contention that welfare state policies related to the functioning of the labour market (inadvertently) play a role in the maintenance of inequality.     

Learned helplessness,discouraged workers,and multiple unemployment equilibria

Unemployment varies strongly between countries with comparable economic structure. Some economists have tried to link this to institutional differences in the labour market. Instead, this paper focuses on a model with multiple equilibria so that the same socioeconomic structure can give rise to different levels of unemployment. Unemployed workers’ search efficiency is modelled within an equilibrium search model and lay behind these results. Learned helplessness causes a pro-cyclical behavior of the aggregate search efficiency, also known as the discouraged worker effect. The model also offers an explanation of why unemployment seems to move more easily up than down.     

The prolonged dilemma: Refugees' impact on labour market in Türkiye

Türkiye has a long history of hosting millions of refugees, but since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, it has emerged as the world's leading refugee-hosting country. Due to this fact, the frequency of refugee inflows to Türkiye has attracted us to explore refugees' macroeconomic impacts as the ongoing political and social debates in Türkiye regarding refugees are immensely focused on their economic impacts. Hence, this paper investigates the effect of refugees on unemployment in Türkiye. The study utilizes the Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Bounds Test approach from 1991 to 2021. Our results yield the pronounced positive and aggravating impact of refugees on unemployment rates in Türkiye. Türkiye's policymakers should focus on local economic policies to improve the refugees' formal integration into the labour market to resolve the negative economic effect of refugee hosting on the labour market.     

Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit – Familiengründung und -erweiterung im Erwerbsverlauf

The current investigation analyses the impact of income and economic uncertainty on women’s family formation and expansion. Analyses based on the data of the German Socio-economic Panel reveal that partner income and income security have positive effects on the propensity toward family formation. Conversely, downward mobility in the partner’s career inhibits second birth transitions. Partner resources could be interpreted as social capital facilitating the realisation of the desire for children. Furthermore, the investigation shows that only persistent occupational uncertainty has negative effects on first birth transitions valid equally for men and women. Consequently, results suggest that women are not backtracking from the labour market in reaction to experiences of uncertainty and exclusion. This indicates that women’s occupational establishment is an important condition of family formation. In conclusion, the analysis documents that individual economic und social situation rather than potential economic incalculabilities associated with higher unemployment rates.     

Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data

This study examined the determinants of fertility, using panel data for 27 European countries. We employed panel co-integration to estimate fertility as function of demographic and economic variables. We showed that low fertility in most industrialized countries in Europe is due to low infant mortality rates, high female employment, low nuptiality rate, and high opportunity cost of having children. Using two measures of economic uncertainty, which are associated with labor market decisions—a production (an output) volatility measure and the unemployment rate—we examined to what extent economic insecurities affect fertility decisions. The empirical results showed that both measures of economic uncertainty have a significant negative impact on fertility implying that labor market insecurities might be a significant factor affecting fertility decisions.     

EU-Mediterranean youths in the crisis: substitution vs. income effect

The economic crisis that erupted in 2008 has had particularly adverse effects on the youth labour market outcomes in the European Union Mediterranean economies. So far little evidence is available on the reaction of the young to the adverse conditions their household members faced due to the crisis. Youths could have decided to prolong or stay in education instead of participating on the labour market (substitution effect) or they could have decided to increase their participation (income effect). By using the EU Labour Force Survey data, we explore the probability of young adults changing their labour market status from (i) inactivity to employment, (ii) inactivity to unemployment, (iii) employment to education, and (iv) unemployment to education in response to labour market outcome changes in their households: (i) both parents losing the job; (ii) one of the parents losing the job, (iii) both parents becoming inactive, (iv) one of the parents becoming inactive, and (v) both parents remaining unemployed. Estimated probit models include seven EU Mediterranean countries during the 2006–2015 period. Results support both income and substitution effect, without clear identification of the dominance of one effect over the other.     

Immigrants and Social Networks in a Job‐Scarce Environment: The Case of Germany1

Though information about jobs passed through personal networks has been central to the labor market integration of immigrants in the United States, its role in the economic absorption of immigrants in Germany, where jobs are scarcer and employers more likely to demand formal qualifications, is less clear. Through analysis of German Socio‐Economic Panel data, we discovered that nearly half of all immigrant‐origin job changers found their positions through networks and that the most vulnerable to unemployment – the young and the less educated – were especially likely to rely on them. Also, jobs found through networks were as likely to lead to improved working conditions as jobs acquired through more formal means. These findings have implications both for debates about assimilation and for social policy.     

The ecological effect of unemployment on the incidence of very low birthweight in Norway and Sweden

Little attention has been paid to the ecological effects of unemployment, despite strong theory suggesting that being socially or economically connected to unemployed persons can induce illness. Theory suggests, for example, that the labor market experience of adult males should affect maternal and infant health. We advance this line of inquiry by testing the hypothesis that quarterly increases in unemployment among Norwegian and Swedish males were associated with increased incidence of very low weight births from 1973 through 1995. Results support the hypothesis. We estimate that approximately 188 very low weight births could have been averted in Norway, and about 329 in Sweden, if quarterly increases in male unemployment had been constrained to the median over the 23-year period. Our findings imply that the social cost of unemployment may be underestimated by focusing on unemployment as an individual risk factor.     

Real household income and attitude toward immigrants: an empirical analysis

Previous studies have analyzed the (aggregate) effects of unemployment on attitudes towards immigrants and on right-wing crimes. In this paper, we investigate the effects of economic prosperity on attitudes towards immigrants, focusing not only on unemployment status but also on real household income. Using panel data from the German Socioeconomic Panel on around 33,000 individuals over the period 1992–2004 we find a robust negative relationship between real personal household income and self-declared concern about immigrants, both in levels and first differences. Both job loss and income reduction concerns about immigration. Our findings document an interesting interaction between economic variables and social attitudes which does not depend on economic growth per se but on its capacity to generate higher economic wellbeing at individual level, not only for unemployed people but also for those in employment, who may face a fall in real income during economic downturns.     

Can welfare and labour market regimes explain cross‐country differences in the unemployment of young people?

No single institution can reduce (long‐term) youth unemployment. Welfare and labour market institutions function as “bundles”, through multiple inter‐institutional synergies. Based on a focused literature review for theory and on cluster analysis for empirics, the author identifies five such regimes across the EU‐27 and estimates their effects on the youth unemployment ratio and on long‐term youth unemployment. The most helpful institutional arrangement for young people in the labour market would be a combination of strong dual apprenticeship embedded in a corporatist labour market regime with high levels of social security, active labour market policy, and spending on education and childcare.     

The scars of youth: Effects of early‐career unemployment on future unemployment experience

Does early‐career unemployment cause future unemployment? The authors approach this question using German administrative matched employer–employee data that track almost 700,000 individuals over 24 years. Instrumenting early‐career unemployment with firm‐specific labour demand shocks, they find significant and long‐lasting “scarring effects”. In the mean, each additional day of unemployment during the first eight years on the labour market increases unemployment in the following 16 years by half a day. However, quantile regressions show that the scarring effects are much stronger for individuals who already suffer from lengthy and repeated spells of unemployment.     

Youth earnings and labour market volatility in Europe

The authors provide new evidence on youth earnings and labour market volatility, including flows into and out of employment, across Europe during the Great Recession. EU‐SILC data for the period 2004–13 reveal large disparities in volatility levels and trends across European countries. As expected, the Great Recession increased youth labour market volatility, offsetting the trends observed over the previous years of economic prosperity. A variance decomposition exercise points to greater exposure to worker turnover in southern Europe. Fixed effects regression on labour market institutions relates higher unemployment benefits and more stringent employment protection legislation to lower earnings and labour market volatility.     

Neighborhood effects of high unemployment rates: Welfare implications among different social groups

This study analyzes spillover effects of high unemployment rates on well-being using cross-sectional data for Germany. Context effects among the employed arise due to the informational character of high unemployment rates. Using data on job security perceptions as well as regional unemployment rates the paper shows that high unemployment rates cause negative externalities among the employed. In addition, subjective perceptions of job security depend on local labor market conditions indicating the informational value of employment data. For unemployed persons we cannot find any welfare gains owing to a social norm effect. Thus, the existence of a public bad is not more enjoyable the more people suffer from the public bad.