多哈世界气候大会成果及其影响

多哈世界气候大会通过了“多哈气候之路”,延续了《京都议定书》,维护了《联合国气候变化框架公约》的原则,包括共同但有区别的责任原则,启动了新一轮谈判以便制定2020年后全球温室气体减排框架,初步描绘了全球保护气候长期安排路径。多哈会议成果及其最终可能形成的长期国际气候变化制度安排,将对未来碳市场、全球经济及社会发展带来深刻的影响。长期来看,多哈会议成果对中国既有正面作用,也有负面影响。我国应积极参与应对气候变化。     

International Impacts of protection: model structure and results for FC agricultural policy

A dynamic international commodity trade model is introduced that combines stochastic production with three features: multimarket dynamics, endogenous trade policy behavior, and endogenous stock-holding behavior. The significance of these features is illustrated using versions of the model with each excluded in turn. Their role in policy analysis is examined by using each version to measure the impacts of the grain-meat components of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy. The absence of each is found to alter significantly the estimated terms of trade, trade volume, and welfare effects. Endogenous stock holding is found to be especially important when insulating trade policies are reprented in the model.     

印度清洁发展机制项目的特点

本文详细分析了印度开发的清洁发展机制（CDM）项目，包括印度国家指定的CDM管理机构、CDM项目的类型和区域分布、CDM项目的主要特征、印度的单边项目、小型项目、核定减排量（CERs）的价格、项目的买家等情况。     

Reforming the European Common Agricultural Policy: From price & income support to risk management

Over the last 30 years, the European Union has significantly reformed its Common Agricultural Policy by introducing direct payments to farmers and reducing price support levels. While the European agricultural prices become more volatile, all economic models assessing these reforms remain static and ignore the risk dimensions. This paper develops an original stochastic computable general equilibrium model capturing the different sources of risk, farmers’ risk attitude and risk contingent markets. We find that the reduction of price support levels has modest market impacts but negative global welfare effects by exposing risk-averse European farmers to the world price volatility. This issue is not solved by the direct payments, which have negligible market and global welfare impacts through their wealth effects. On the other hand, we find that unbiased futures markets can solve this global welfare issue by allowing European farmers to transfer their price risks. Therefore, European policymakers should ensure well-functioning risk contingent markets rather than maintaining rigid intervention price levels.     

Policy Climates and Reductions in Automobile Use*

Objectives. This study examines how national environmental policy influences individual car‐driving behavior in the European Union. Methods. Using the International Social Survey: Environment II in conjunction with the 2001 and 2002 Environmental Sustainability Indices, we analyze the relationship between macro‐level policy indicators and the reported reduction of individual car driving for environmental reasons, controlling for meso‐ and micro‐level factors. Results. Our results show that individuals report a greater likelihood of driving less for environmental reasons when they live in nations that adopt strong pro‐environmental policies, even when such policies are not directly related to car use. Conclusions. Our finding that a national policy climate focused on environmental sustainability is associated with pro‐environmental behaviors among individuals in that nation encourages us to believe that greater international cooperation on environmental issues (such as the Kyoto Protocol) and increased strength of domestic environmental policies will positively change individual behavior.     

EU and China: Destined to Be Partners in Shaping the Post-Kyoto Regime?

This paper argues that China and the EU are destined to be partners in fighting for a second period of commitments for global climate change governance and shaping the post-Kyoto regime to meet the anticipated challenges of the 21^st century. The basic idea backing this argumentation is the assessment that, in comparison with other nations (the United States, Russia, India, Japan and Canada), Europe and China would have most to lose if the upgrading of the Kyoto Protocol fails; and conversely, they would have most to win if the regime survives in a modernized form and with a more comprehensive application of international binding commitments. This is to say, the EU and China have no choice but to work together if they want to achieve their respective political objectives relating to the issue of global climate change in a less costly and more effective way.     

Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU: Expected results and their social acceptance

The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union (CAP) is one of the oldest and most controversial of the UE policies. Different possible scenarios of the future reforms of the CAP are currently being discussed. They vary in terms of the extent and the type of the intervention and consequently the welfare effects for different social groups. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the partial equilibrium model (CAPRI) and the Theory of Moves (TOM) can be jointly used to test socio-political acceptance of the CAP’s reforms, informing subsequent changes to the policy. Our exemplary results demonstrate that liquidation of the first pillar of the CAP would negatively influence the socio-political acceptance of the CAP.     

Multi-scale assessment of the livestock sector for policy design in Zambia

While livestock constitute a strategic sector to reduce poverty and enhance growth in developing countries, decision makers often lack data reflecting the diversity of livestock functions and systems. We therefore mobilised the Livestock Sector Investment Policy Toolkit to assess the economic contributions of livestock in Zambia. Valuing their plural contributions by system, we found that mixed rainfed systems were the main contributors to added value, even if specialised intensive systems provided around 45% of meat and milk production. Demand-oriented policies promoting intensive systems would not have the same effects on economic growth as growth-oriented policies focusing on smallholder mixed farming.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCE EU and China： Destined to Be Partners in Shaping the Post-Kyoto Regime？

欧盟和中国注定要成为伙伴,努力争取全球气候变化管理的第二承诺期,打造能够迎接21世纪可预期挑战的后京都制度。支持这个论征的基本思路是,与其它主要国家（美国、俄罗斯、印度、日本和加拿大）相比,如果《京都议定书》升级失败的话,损失最大的将是欧盟和中国。反之,如果这一制度将以现代的形式继续生存,并且更为全面地应用具有国际约束力的承诺,那么欧盟和中国则将是最大的赢家。也就是说,欧盟和中国如果希望更有效、更低成本地实现各自有关全球气候变化问题的政治目标的话,它们别无选择,只能一起合作。     

Public policies promoting the informal sector: Effects on incomes,employment and growth in Burkina Faso

Since the 1990s, Burkina Faso has intensified the implementation of supporting policies to enhance the access to capital and liquidity in the informal sector. This paper analyzes the effects of these public policies on incomes, employment and economic growth by taking into account the interactions between the informal sector, the formal sector and the agricultural sector. For that purpose, policy shocks are simulated through the Partnership for Economic Policy Network's static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which is adapted to the structure of a 2008-based social accounting matrix developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute. Our results highlight mixed effects including a paradoxical contraction of the informal sector, the formal sector and economic growth as well as an improvement of the informal households and the farmers’ incomes.     

The impact of HIV/AIDS on social security contributions: The case of Zimbabwe

Significant early retirement from work due to HIV/AIDS-related illness is reducing the gainfully employed population and threatening the viability of the statutory social security schemes run by the National Social Security Authority in Zimbabwe. The economy has been in recession for a decade, with high inflation and significant job losses also impacting negatively on contributions to the National Pension and Other Benefits Scheme (NPOBS), and government imposes ceilings on insurable earnings from which contributions are drawn. There are currently no consistent strategies to mitigate attritional effects of these factors on the social security schemes. The aim of this study was to prospectively project the potential impact of HIV/AIDS and imposed ceilings on NPOBS revenue in the presence of high inflation. It was found that HIV/AIDS will reduce projected contributions to the scheme by more than 30 per cent by 2030. Policy strategies to adjust and frequently review levels of growth of imposed ceilings on insurable earnings in line with inflation growth and to invest in HIV/AIDS prevention could be adopted to ameliorate the negative impact of HIV/AIDS and/or ceiling caps on social security contributions in Zimbabwe.     

Does self-policing reduce chemical emissions?

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Self-Policing Policy (more commonly referred to as the Audit Policy) waives or reduces penalties when companies voluntarily discover, disclose, and correct environmental violations. One goal of the Audit Policy is to encourage companies to conduct environmental audits in order to identify poor environmental performance. Thus, the regulatory flexibility associated with the Audit Policy should reduce subsequent chemical emissions. While several studies examine predictors of the Audit Policy, no studies examine if facilities that use the Policy decrease their chemical emissions as a result. The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of the Audit Policy on changes in Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) emissions among a sample of 178 facilities operating in the chemical and allied product industry. The results of that analysis suggest that facilities that use the policy have similar subsequent emissions trends as facilities that do not use the policy. Moreover, the results also suggest that formal enforcement actions are the best predictor of TRI reductions. These findings persist despite other regulator and company controls. In terms of environmental policy, the results suggest that self-policing may not improve or deteriorate environmental performance in the chemical and allied products industry.     

Social Policy's ‘Greatest Hits’

The ‘age of metrics’ or ‘the metric tide’ in the form of bibliometrics has largely by‐passed Social Policy. This study aims to broaden the focus from the most cited articles in Social Policy journals to discover the most cited works in Social Policy or ‘Social Policy's Greatest Hits’. It finds some 24 works with over 2000 Google Scholar citations, but only nine of these are by social policy writers. In terms of total citations, Gosta Esping‐Andersen's The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism is the clear leader by a significant margin, with the most cited Social Policy (or Social Administration) writers being Peter Townsend, Richard Titmuss, Ruth Lister and Jane Lewis. In addition to total citations, it presents citations per year, and ‘Social Policy citations’ (i.e. the use made of the work within the discipline of Social Policy). This list is headed by Gosta Esping‐Andersen and Paul Pierson, with the leading social policy writer being Jane Lewis. This article presents a set of the ‘most plausible contenders’ for the works with greatest influence within Social Policy or ‘Social Policy's Greatest Hits’. It is concluded that, even with its flaws, bibliometrics is an important approach to exploring the vast field of Social Policy.     

Exchange rate policies simulated by means of a disequilibrium model of the Finnish economy

In this paper a model for the Finnish economy with disequilibrium in the goods and financial markets is specified and estimated by single equation methods. The transmission mechanisms of the model are studied in the framework of various devaluation simulations. The model is very sensitive, especially with respect to the prevailing credit market regime and possible regime changes. Policy effects are not so much affected by conditions in the goods market, assuming moderate policy shocks. These considerations suggest the importance in policy planning of identifying the regimes prevailing in the markets.     

Structural unemployment. An analysis of recruitment and selection mechanisms based on panel data among Danish long-term unemployed

The perception of structural unemployment – summarised in the notion of 'Eurosclerosis'– became almost hegemonic during the 1990s. Policy makers all over Europe tried, by means of supply-side policies, to counteract the lack of incentives in the developed European welfare states, the lack of qualification on the post-industrial labour markets and the personal decay due to long-term unemployment. However, based on the critical case of Denmark, this article challenges the perception of structural unemployment and suggests an alternative business cycle/barrier perception. At the macro level it is difficult to explain the Danish decline in unemployment from 1994 to 2000 within the structure perception. The lack of explanatory power of the structure perception is further highlighted in micro-level analyses conducted on a panel study of long-term unemployed. Based on the unemployed's own assessments, we find no indications of supply-side problems. These results are supported by analyses of actual labour market integration of the long-term unemployed in the period between 1994 and 1999, which show that education level and previous unemployment had no noteworthy influence on labour market integration, whereas age had a decisive influence. These surprising results further undermine the perception of structural unemployment and the supply-side policies rooted in this 'mistaken' problem definition.     

Inclusive Europe: the impact of the EU Cohesion Policy on immigrants’ economic integration in Italy

By examining the impacts of the Cohesion Policy on immigrants’ economic integration, this study provides evidence on how the European Union promotes inclusion. Focusing on Italian municipalities, we estimate the causal effects of immigrant-related projects on the wage gap between natives and immigrants during the 2007–2018 period. We find a significant decrease in the average wage gap of approximately 7.6%. Specifically, Cohesion Policy played a positive role in immigrant economic inclusion through interventions targeted at supporting the employment and mobility of workers. For the inclusive dimension of the Next Generation EU program, this is key evidence to start with.     

Policy modelling of the trade-off between agricultural development and land degradation—the Sudan case

The agricultural policy model of the trade-off between agricultural growth and land degradation that we have developed, with Sudan as an application, shares common features with the computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is used to address two questions. First, what are the future prospects of a green gross domestic product (GDP), are there reasons for alarm or not, and to what extent? Secondly, which among the four policies of price incentives, property rights, poverty reduction, and human capital are more effective than the others? We show that the prospects of natural resource-friendly agricultural development in Sudan—a rising green GDP—are not promising in the medium run, but that, indeed, there is a range of effective policies and choices that could reduce the trade-off between economic growth and land degradation.     

德班世界气候大会成果解读与中国未来面临的挑战

德班世界气候会议通过了一系列决定,主要内容有四项：议定书第二承诺期发达国家减排义务的决定、在公约下长期合作行动计划的一揽子工作计划的决定、启动绿色气候基金的决定,以及关于启动谈判所有国家2020年后减排温室气体法律框架的决定,即＂德班增强行动平台＂。总体上看,德班会议的成果一定程度上均衡地照顾了各方的利益和诉求,发展中国家尤其是中国今后将面临承担某种程度的约束性温室气体限排义务。这将有助于促进我国建立资源节约型、环境友好型社会,实现可持续发展目标,同时不可避免的带来一定的负面影响。减排温室气体要求在科学研究方面做出相应的部署。     

Debating New Zealand’s foreign relations: the role and impact of the University of Otago Foreign Policy School 1966–1976

For over half a century, the internationally recognised University of Otago Foreign Policy School has annually drawn together a mix of government officials, diplomats, academics, students and members of the general public to discuss issues of international significance. This article considers the establishment of the Foreign Policy School, and analyses its impact on the formulation and implementation of foreign policy between 1966 and 1976. Michelle Hale Williams’ conceptual model is employed to assess the School’s influence on public and political debate. It is argued the School’s influence was directly and most clearly evident at what Williams defines as the agendas and institutional levels. There was a gradual but definite shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy outlook between the mid-1960s and mid-1970s, which is reflected in questions raised and discussed by the School. Public engagement with foreign policy questions, in which the School played an enabling role, was also transformed in the course of this period. The School rapidly became an important forum for foreign policy discussions between groups that had previously had little interaction. This article shows that, while it generated few concrete results at the level of policy, the School certainly played a part in helping to foster a national world-view that was increasingly based on New Zealand values and interests, paving the way for the emergence of a more independent foreign policy.     

The impact of trade liberalisation on poverty and inequality: Evidence from CGE models

In this paper we carry out a systematic review of the evidence from CGE models regarding the effect of trade liberalisation on income inequality and poverty in developing countries. The evidence suggests quite strongly that trade liberalisation tends to reduce poverty, but is more likely to increase inequality than reduce it; however, the predicted effects are relatively small. Variation in the size and direction of effects can be explained by the choice of outcome measure, the fiscal response to liberalisation, the type of CGE model, and certain country characteristics – but not the method used to link the CGE model to the distribution of income.