当前我国社会养老保险隐性债务规模精算分析

养老保险隐性债务问题是我国经济体制改革的遗留产物,虽然我国政府一直重视社会养老保险制度的改革,但是目前我国养老金隐性债务数额仍然很大,严重影响到养老保险制度的正常运转。采用精算方法和最新统计数据对我国社会养老保险隐性债务的现实规模进行测算,并提出补偿这些债务的政策措施。     

中国养老保险隐性债务显性化研究

养老保险隐性债务是现收现付制养老金制度的固有特征;养老保险隐性债务的显性化问题是源于现收现付制养老保险向基金制的转轨。养老保险制度的转轨成本源于隐性债务,但在量上并不等于隐性债务,只有在制度转轨过程中显性化出来的那部分隐性债务才是转轨成本。中国养老保险制度改革的目标是部分基金制,因而只是部分旧制度下的隐性债务会显性化。隐性债务的显性化是一个复杂的动态变化过程,作者用系统动力学的方法进行模拟测算,得出中国未来各期的政府清偿隐性债务的估测量值,以供决策部门参考。     

延迟退休年龄对居民收入分配的影响——基于异质性代理人的分析

延迟退休年龄是积极应对人口老龄化的重要举措,构建异质性代理人的动态一般均衡模型并使用数值模拟方法分析延迟退休年龄对居民收入分配的影响。研究结果表明,第一,延迟退休年龄缩小了居民收入分配差距。每延迟退休一年,居民收入分配的Gini系数平均降低17%。延迟退休年龄对居民收入分配影响的边际效应是递减的,居民收入分配Gini系数对延迟退休年龄的半弹性随延迟退休年龄的增加而减少。因此,延迟退休年龄有助于实现全体人民的共同富裕。较低的相对风险厌恶系数、较低的养老金替代率和较高的资本产出弹性对应较低的居民收入分配差距。第二,总消费随着延迟退休年龄的增加而增加。居民总消费对延迟退休年龄的半弹性平均为3.92%。较低的相对风险厌恶系数、较高的养老金替代率和较低的资本产出弹性对应较高的居民总消费。第三,延迟退休年龄增加了全体居民的福利。居民总福利对延迟退休年龄的半弹性平均为8.49%,较低的相对风险厌恶系数、较低的资本产出弹性和较高的养老金替代率对应较高的居民总福利和退休居民的平均福利。本文采用的方法对于研究居民收入分配有一定的借鉴意义,研究结论对于理解延迟退休年龄对居民收入分配的影响提供了一个新的视角,...     

养老金性别差异影响因素分析——以上海城镇“老人”为例

为了了解养老金性别差异的影响因素及各因素的影响程度,通过对2003年上海市老年人口状况与意愿跟踪调查原始数据的多元线性回归分析,本研究发现：．女性城镇“老人”在受教育年限、退休年龄和退休前职业等方面较男性城镇“老人”均处于劣势：不同特征女性城镇“老人”养老金整体上低于男性城镇“老人”：退休年龄和受教育年限对养老金的性别差异有较强的解释力;退休年份越晚,养老金的性别差异由退休年龄和受教育年限解释的比重越高。     

人口老龄化背景下的推迟退休年龄策略研究

在人口老龄化进程加快的情况下,为改善我国城镇养老金收支均衡状况,有必要对养老金替代率、退休年龄等进行参数改革。利用"五普"数据,对未来50年我国城镇人口老龄化状况进行预测;考察人口老龄化对城镇社会统筹养老金收支均衡的影响;设计推迟退休年龄的几种方案,进行了静态比较分析,并给出了相应的政策建议。     

退休年龄比较研究

近年来多个国家和地区实施了退休年龄改革,以缓解人口老龄化所带来的养老金支付压力,而我国有关部门也正在研究推迟退休年龄。通过世界172个国家和地区退休年龄的比较,发现我国现行退休年龄制度存在身份差别、低于世界平均水平等不足。根据全球退休年龄改革的趋势,建议我国采取分步走的方式推迟退休年龄。     

欧债危机下的养老金制度改革——从福利国家到高债国家的教训

文章从人口老龄化的角度,分析了老龄化成本的含义和构成及其导致希腊陷入债务危机的诱因,认为欧洲尤其是希腊的养老金体系存在的替代率过高、待遇率严重失衡、养老金财富总值超出支付能力等问题提升了老龄化的财务成本;作者在分析了欧债危机下世界改革养老金的趋势后,认为中国养老金制度中存在参数不合理、缺乏个人激励机制、市场激励因素弱化、再分配因素失衡等潜在的财务风险,建议重视第二支柱的建设以部分转移第一支柱的财务风险,逐渐提高退休年龄以重建科学的制度参数,重塑账户的激励功能以增强制度收入能力,建立制度防火墙以规避潜在财务风险。     

退休年龄与养老金支付

退休年龄由各国各地人口的平均寿命以及劳动力供求状况所决定 ,它对养老金的支付有重要影响作用。在人口老龄化日益加剧、劳动力供应日益困难的当今社会 ,不少国家和地区都做出了推迟退休年龄以维持养老基金平衡的政策选择。中国城镇职工退休年龄是几十年前规定的 ,在人口平均寿命不断增长、养老保险制度日益成熟的今天 ,也存在着推迟退休年龄的社会需求和可能条件。文章通过对养老保险制度赡养率、被动率的分析 ,提出了按男女有别、分步到位的原则推迟职工退休年龄的政策建议 ,文章还就一些地区大批办理职工提前退休的做法对养老金支付造成的压力进行了分析     

收益率波动与基本养老保险替代率结构调整

文章运用精算模型比较了收益率波动条件下,基础养老金和个人账户对参与者的经济影响差异,并对我国基本养老保险替代率现行政策进行了实证检验,发现:(1)由不同收益率,可确定不同收入群体对基础养老金和个人账户的偏好差异,从而为不同收入水平人群实施替代率结构调整提出分类标准。(2)收益率较低时提高退休年龄,个人账户激励效果强于基础养老金,因此在收益率波动状况下,提高退休年龄并增加个人账户份额不失为恰当选择。     

提高退休年龄与降低替代率：城镇职工基本养老金的财政支出研究

目前，中国法定退体年龄与最优退休年龄存在不同步的现象，所建最优退休年龄经济模型的结果表明人口死亡概率与最优退休年龄的动态经济规律。按照这个规律，中国目前应提高退休年龄。但通过对城镇职工的年龄预测及对其赡养率和缴费率的敏感性分析，笔者认为解决目前财政压力的关键是适当降低养老金替代率，而提高退休年龄应运步推行。     

Differentials in divorce in maryland

The basic data needed for measurement of the risks of termination of the legal relationship of marriage by characteristics of the marital partners are not available at this time for the United States because the national divorce registration area includes less than half the States. Special studies based on selected census data or the records of marriages and divorces occurring in one State or community have provided much of the valuable but limited information at hand. Statistics for individual States are subject to substantial bias as a consequence of inter-State migration between time of marriage and time of divorce, but they must serve as a basic data source until national reporting has improved. A record linkage study was undertaken which tied marriages occurring in the State of Maryland in 1959 with divorces occurring in the State in the years 1959–66. Relative, not actual, divorce risks by race, age at marriage, and previous marital status were calculated for couples with at least one partner an in-State resident at the time of marriage. The dissolution rate was higher for whites than for nonwhites. Marriages contracted by persons at very youthful ages and by persons who had been married previously were found subject to greater than average risks of dissolution through divorce.     

城市计划生育技术服务方式创新--南京市玄武区政府购买计划生育技术服务的实践

建立政府牵头、计卫联手、资源共享的计划生育技术服务体系 ,开展以知识普及、知情选择、随访服务、咨询指导、健康促进为主要内容的计划生育避孕节育和生殖保健优质服务 ,最大限度地满足社区育龄群众在计划生育和生殖保健方面的需求 ,是城市计划生育技术服务改革发展的方向1 。近几年 ,南京市玄武区计划生育局在区委、区政府的领导以及省市计生委的支持下 ,根据新时期城市计划生育工作改革发展要求 ,积极推进政府计划生育部门的职能转变 ,探索计划生育技术服务方式的改革创新 ,尝试依托社区医疗卫生和妇幼保健服务网络 ,由政府购买计划生育…     

Major Tasks in Health and Family Planning in China in 2015

On January 12,2015,at the regular press briefing of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC),NHFPC reported the major tasks in health and family planning in China in 2015.The details are as follows:In-depth Development of Medical and Health System Reform In-depth Development of Medical and Health System Reform.     

Increases in childlessness in New Zealand

New Zealand’s fertility fell below the theoretical replacement level (2.1 births per woman) for the first time in recorded history in 1978. It has hovered at or below replacement level ever since. The result, an impression of relative stability, belies changes taking place. Data from the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses show a pattern of delayed childbearing and increased childlessness. In a little over 30 years, childlessness has shifted from being almost entirely a consequence of a couple’s infecundity to being as frequently a result of a woman’s life choices. The steady rises in childlessness recorded by successive cohorts suggest that childlessness is already having a significant effect on New Zealand fertility. Patterns in characteristics of those women choosing not to start families, as well as subtle differences in these patterns between New Zealand and other developed nations, suggest that there is a significant potential for childlessness to cause a more dramatic shift in New Zealand’s total fertility rate. This analysis examines growth in childlessness in relation to marital status, country of birth, ethnicity, regional and urban differentials, religion, and educational attainment of women who were childless at the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses.

Shifts in Reproductive Patterns in China

The People's Republic of China, during the second half of the twentieth century, has been repeatedly affected by social and political upheavals associated with government policies. These have produced strong but unexpected impacts on Chinese demographic patterns. Many of these policies are of the sorts that alter reproductive costs and benefits. This study examines patterns in Hebei, Shaanxi, and Shanghai, three provinces with differing ecological, geographic, and economic characteristics. Government policies affected the three populations differentially; this was evident at both aggregate and individual levels. The Great Leap Forward and subsequent famine created higher birth deficits and mortality among the largely rural populations of Hebei and Shaanxi than the more urban Shanghai. In contrast, the Cultural Revolution and family planning resulted in lower fertility levels for women in Shanghai. The population history of China during the second half of last century thus reflects strong state interventions in the lives of its citizens. Government policies, along with regional variations in geographic, social, and economic conditions, strongly influence individual access to resources in China. Variations in timing and intensity of women's reproductive patterns reflect differential access to resources and subsequent trade-offs.     

Materialism in Pedagogy Students in Chile

Many studies have used Richins and Dawson’s (J Consum Res 19: 303–316, 1992) Material Values Scale (MVS), applying it to different types of populations that exhibit a particular psychometric behavior, and showing little stability in their factorial structure. In the present study, 1,070 pedagogy students from the northern, central and southern regions of Chile answered the MVS. This sample was randomly divided in two. Using the first sub-sample (N = 539), an exploratory factorial analysis was carried out, from which a structure of nine items was grouped into two factors called “Social Success” and “Personal Happiness”, which presented adequate reliability. Later, with the second sub-sample (N = 531), the factorial structure indicated above was put to the test through a confirmatory factorial analysis. The data from the model show that the scale contains 8 items in total, grouped into two dimensions. The factorial loads are significant at the level of 1 %, which indicates that the 2-factor structure can be confirmed. Finally—using the proposed structure—the presence of the students’ material values was evaluated.     

论西部开发中的城市发展问题

本文在对近20年来我国城市发展进行回顾与反思的基础上,提出了西部制定城市发展战略和选择城市发展道路的基本原则以及若干城市发展对策措施.     

Trends in life expectancy in wellbeing

Objectives: This paper describes anddiscusses trends in life expectancy inwellbeing between 1989 and 1998.Methods: Data on wellbeing by theBradburn Affect Balance Scale is obtained fromthe Netherlands Continuous Health InterviewSurveys for the calendar years from 1989 to1998. Using Sullivan's method, life expectancyin wellbeing is calculated.Results: For males at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing increases significantlyfrom 52.7 years in 1989 (90.1% of the totallife expectancy) to 54.4 years in 1998(90.8%). This increase is almost completelycaused by the increase in total lifeexpectancy. For females at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing raises significant from54.4 years in 1989 (84.1%) to 56.2 years in1998 (86.3%). This increase is almostcompletely caused by a decrease in the numberof years in a state of distress.For both males and females at the age of 65,the significant increase of life expectancy inwellbeing exceeds the increase in total lifeexpectancy and is mainly caused by the decreasein number of years in distress.Conclusion: Contrary to life expectancyin good perceived health and to disability freelife expectancy – which show a decreasing trend– the overall wellbeing of the population isincreasing. It seems that aspects in human lifethat contribute to wellbeing or quality of lifeother than physical health are gaining inimportance. This makes life expectancy inwellbeing a less appropriate instrument tomonitor changes in population health, but auseful instrument to measure population qualityof life.     

Changes in Living Standards and Depopulation in Latvia in the 1990s

Social Indicators Research -     

"非典"期间全国农村地区跨省流入人口调查数据分析

在2003年抗击非典的关键时期,国家人口和计划生育委员会进行了全国农村地区跨省流入人口的调查.本文着重分析这项调查所获得的数据,并对数据的一致性做出说明.既揭示了我国农村流动人口的基本特征和非典时期农村人口流动的规模和流向特点,又反映了非典对这一时期全国人口的流动所产生的影响,同时展示了我国抗击非典工作在农村地区所取得的成绩.