The best-laid schemes: An analysis of discrepancies between migration intentions and behavior

A longitudinal survey approach is used in a largely rural area in the Philippines to examine consistency between migration intentions and subsequent migration behavior. Inconsistencies in movement behavior, the timing of a move, and the destination are analyzed. Discrepancies between intentions and behavior are explained in terms of unanticipated constraints and facilitators as well as changes in the conditions that precipitated the migration intention in the first place. Intended international movers who did not actually move in a 2-1/2 year period were thwarted mainly by legal hurdles that could not be overcome. Intended internal migrants who did not actually move remained in their origin area primarily because of changes in job opportunities or family relationships. Methodological and theoretical implications of the findings are discussed.The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men Gang aft agley, An' la'e us nought but grief an' pain, For promis'd joy! we must bear in mind the distinction between direct and facilitating factors involved in migration processes . migration analysis should consider some factors that facilitate or impede migration rather than determine migration directly (Goldscheider, 1971:38).This article was originally presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of American in Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. The authors wish to thank Lynna Sycip for her assistance in the preparation of the tabulations for this article. In addition to the authors, the co-investigators for this project are James T. Fawcett, East-West Population Institute and Ricardo G. Abad, Institute of Philippine Culture, Ateneo de Manila University. Research for this article has been supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, Manila, Philippines, and the East-West Population Institute.     

Cohort size and schooling choice

We develop a perfect-foresight overlapping generations model to investigate the effects of cohort size on schooling decisions and cohort-specific welfare measures. A set of sufficient conditions are presented which ensure the existence of an unique sequence of human capital rental rates and schooling choices for any sequence of cohort sizes. We calibrate the partial equilibrium model using data on schooling investments and aggregate wages over the period 1920 through 1980, and use the parameters to assess the magnitude of lifetime cohort wealth and schooling elasticities computed with respect to the entire cohort size sequence. We find that the equilibrium response of schooling to perturbations in the cohort size sequence is small, so that the adverse effects of increases in the size of own and neighboring cohorts on cohort wealth are not significantly migrated by adjustments in schooling investments within our modelling framework.This research was partially supported by National Institute of Child Health and Human Development grant R01-HD28409 and by the C. V. Starr Center for Applied Economics at New York University. Comments and suggestions by three anonymous referees have resulted in a substantially improved paper. Francis Gupta provided extremely able research assistance. All remaining errors and omissions are attributable to me.     

Fertility and the economy

I relate the demand for children to parental incomes and the cost of rearing children — especially to the value of the time spent on child care and to public policies that change the cost of children. This paper also links the demand for children to investments in their human capital and other dimensions of the so-called quality of children. Fertility is shown to depend too on child and adult mortality, uncertainty about the sex of children — if there is a preference for boys, girls, or for variety — uncertainty about how long it takes to produce a conception, and other variables.Since biological necessity dictates that succeeding generations overlap, it is not surprising that fertility in one generation influences the fertility of succeeding generations. The overlapping generations approach provides a useful framework for relating fertility choices to population growth and macroeconomic changes.The modern approach to fertility leads to very different interactions between population growth and economic growth than is implied either by Malthusian or the usual neo-classical growth models. In particular, it provides a framework for analyzing how societies escape a Malthusian-like stagnating equilibrium and embark on the journey toward becoming modern economies, where per capita incomes, human capital, and physical capital all continue to grow, fertility declines to rather low levels, and married women participate extensively in the labor force.This essay was prepared for the Nobel Jubilee Symposium, Lund, Sweden, December 5–7, 1991. I have had valuable comments from James Heckman, Robert Willis and my discussants at the symposium: Allesandro Cigno and Richard Easterlin, and useful assistance from Becky Kilburn. I am indebted to the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development award R37-HD22054 and National Science Foundation award SES-90-10748.     

How Women in Late Midlife Become Caregivers for Their Aging Parents

Approximately 52 million Americans provide informal (unpaid) care to a family member or friend who is disabled or ill. The most common informal caregiving relationship is that of an adult child providing assistance to an aging parent. This article describes a qualitative study examining how adult daughters between the ages of 50 and 65 become caregivers to their parent or parent-in-law. Data were collected through in-depth, face-to-face interviews with 15 female caregivers. Analysis revealed that assistance provided to parents was initiated by one or more triggering event, after which participants became caregivers in either an emergent or deliberate manner.     

Subjective utility and plans for childbearing and employment

Nonrecursive models of plans for childbearing and employment were estimated for a sample of white married women, age 26 to 36, with one or two young children. Women's concerns about care of children already born did inhibit their employment plans. Further, plans to have another child in the near future had a direct negative effect on full-time employment plans among women with one child, but not among women with two children. No direct effects of childbearing plans on part-time employment plans were found. In contrast to earlier research on longterm childbearing and employment plans, no direct effects of employment plans on plans for childbearing were found. It is suggested that attainment of the two-child family marks a turning point in the relation between childbearing and wives' employment.This research was partially supported by grants from the Center for Population Research, NICHD to Battelle Human Affairs Research Centers, Seattle, Washington (1-R01-HD10683), and to the Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison (1-R01-HD05876). I wish to thank Andrew R. Davidson for the opportunity to conduct the research. I am also grateful to Pamela Oliver, Larry Bumpass, and the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on earlier versions of this article.     

Migration intentions and behavior: Decision making in a rural Philippine province

The relationship between intentions and behavior is basic to micro-level migration decision research. This study, set in the rural Philippine province of Ilocos Norte, provides evidence on personal and structural background factors and value-expectancy perceptions of place utility that predict migration intentions and behavior. Separate analyses are conducted for general intentions to move and for destination-specific migration intentions, the latter pertaining to both internal migration (Manila) and international migration (Hawaii). Logistic regression analyses applied to the data from a 1980–82 longitudinal survey show that the empirical models are highly efficient in explaining migration intentions but less efficient in explaining actual migration behavior in this Third World setting. Important explanatory variables for both intentions and behavior include family pressure to move or stay, family auspices at alternative destinations, money to move, prior migration experience, and the life cycle stage (marital status and age). However, the determinants of internal and international migration behavior are not the same. The data only partially support the Ajzen and Fishbein (1980) position that intentions are the dominant determinant of behavior. Personal and structural background factors are shown to exert independent direct effects on migration behavior.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. Research for this paper was supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, The Philippines, the East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Population Issues Research Center, University Park, PA. The other coinvestigators for this project are Fred Arnold, East-West Population Institute, and Benjamin V. Carino, University of the Philippines.     

Using operations research to guide family planning program development and policy formulation in sub-Saharan Africa

The process by which a population policy and family planning program evolve in a given country is influenced by many factors that combine to make each country's experience unique. One of the most influential factors among these is the role played by external technical assistance, normally provided through donor-supported mechanisms. One donor-supported mechanism that seeks to guide the operational policy and program development process is technical assistance through operations research. Many questions are raised during the design of family planning programs that are often best answered with reference to empirical evidence collected through applied, or operations research (OR). This paper provides a review of the three main OR approaches currently being used in sub-Saharan Africa: diagnostic or needs assessment studies; experimental pilot studies; and intensive technical assistance for problem-solving and institutional development. The extent to which these OR approaches can play a role in family planning program development to improve and expand service delivery activities is discussed, and examples where these approaches have been used are given.     

Incorporating husband-wife differences in place utility differentials into migration decision models

This paper extends the micro-level empirical literature on migration decision making by investigating the manner in which husbands' and wives' subjective place utility expectations jointly feed into migration decisions in a low-income country. The authors use expectational data relating to four place utility dimensions and stated migration intentions of 376 village-resident Egyptian couples to test alternative decision models. An ordinal probit estimation technique is employed. The results of the analyses support the hypothesis of husband dominance in migration decisions in this context. The authors conclude with a discussion of the implications of the paper for further theoretical refinement and for migration survey design in this and other developing countries.Dr. McDevitt is a Research Associate of the Carolina Population Center, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Dr. Gadalla, former Director of The Social Research Center of The American University in Cairo, is currently Visiting Distinguished Professor of Sociology-Demography, San Diego State University, San Diego.This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1984 annual meetings of the Population Association of America and cited throughout as McDevitt and Gadalla (1984). The authors wish to acknowledge helpful discussions with Amos Hawley in the early stages of the development of the paper and the guidance of David Guilkey and Larry Taylor with the statistical techniques employed in the work reported in the paper. The research was supported in part by grants 1-R01-HD14943 and 1-T32-HD07168 from the National Institutes of Health.     

Employment transitions in the Netherlands, 1980–2004: Are low educated men subject to structural or cyclical crowding out?

This article addresses whether low educated men are displaced from their jobs by higher educated workers in the Netherlands in the period 1980–2004. In particular, we test whether structural or cyclical crowding out is predominant in the Dutch labor market. In order to do so, we try to explain the observed trends in education-specific transition rates to entry into first employment from education, exit from employment into unemployment or inactivity, and re-entry into employment from unemployment or inactivity for men by both business cycle effects (that is, changes in aggregate unemployment rates) and structural effects (that is, changes in labor supply–demand ratios for high educated). Discrete-time event history models are estimated using the OSA Labor Supply Panel 1985–2004. Retrospective information enables to study trends from 1980 onwards, so that structural effects can be distinguished from cyclical effects. The results show that structural crowding out exists at both the worker in- and outflow. First of all, it was observed that a growth in the oversupply of high educated increases the employment exit risk of low educated workers more so than that of higher educated ones. In addition, it was shown that an increase in the oversupply of high educated especially reduces the re-employment chances of low educated unemployed men. There is no evidence found for cyclical crowding out among low educated workers in the Dutch labor market.     

Die analytische Soziologie: Soziale Mechanismen, DBO-Theorie und Agentenbasierte Modelle

Within the analytical sociology, Peter Hedström — professor at School of Social Sciences of the Singapore Management University — developed an approach to come to valid explanations of social phenomena. In this article, his approach will be described and critically assessed. The approach is based on the micro-macro view in sociology. With the assistance of the so called DBO-theory, certain social mechanisms are formulated on the micro- and macro levels to come to a sufficient (middle-range) theory for the explanation of social phenomena. To investigate the validity of the theory, agent-based models are calculated.     

Age of entry into marriage and the date of the initiation of voluntary birth control

It is widely known that modern economic development has been accompanied by the initiation and spread of effective limitation of fertility, and that generally the populations which experienced development at a late date also had a belated reduction in childbearing. Here a surprising relation is found between (and within) broad regions: the areas in which traditional age of entry into marriage was late were the areas in which marital fertility was reduced first.     

Returns on Lifetime Investments in Children in Egypt

Parental expectations about the companionship and assistance they will receive in later life from their children are key considerations in family formation decisions. We explore patterns of parents’ investment and the support and contact they receive from adult children in Egypt, where fertility is falling and sources of support at all life stages are in flux. Using data from a survey of older adults in Ismailia governorate, we consider parents’ past investments in childbearing, child survival, and children’s education and marriage, as well as recent assistance to adult children via housing, care for grandchildren, gifts, and money. The returns from children considered include economic assistance, instrumental support, and visits. Most parental investments are associated with frequent visits from children. The assistance children provide to parents is gendered: sons tend to provide economic transfers, whereas daughters tend to provide instrumental help. A greater number of surviving children is most strongly associated with parents’ receipt of multiple types of later-life returns. Investments in children’s education and marriage are not associated with assistance, but recent assistance to children—especially economic transfers and provision of housing—is associated with receiving instrumental assistance from adult children.     

Choice of study discipline and the postponement of motherhood in Europe: The impact of expected earnings,gender composition,and family attitudes

Theory suggests that the field of study may be at least as consequential for fertility behavior as the duration and level of education. Yet, this qualitative dimension of educational achievement has been largely neglected in demographic studies. This article analyzes the mechanisms relating the field of study with the postponement of motherhood by European college-graduate women aged 20–40. The second round of the European Social Survey is used to assess the impact of four features of study disciplines that are identified as key to reproductive decision making: the expected starting wage, the steepness of the earning profile, attitudes toward gendered family roles, and gender composition. The results indicate that the postponement of motherhood is relatively limited among graduates from study disciplines in which stereotypical attitudes about family roles prevail and in which a large share of the graduates are female. Both the level of the starting wage and the steepness of the earning profile are found to be associated with greater postponement. These results are robust to controlling for the partnership situation and the age at entry into the labor market.     

Educational reversals and first-birth timing in sub-saharan africa: A dynamic multilevel approach

In many areas throughout sub-Saharan Africa, young adult cohorts are less educated than their predecessors because of declines in school enrollments during the 1980s and 1990s. Because a woman with little education typically becomes a mother earlier and has more children than one with better education, and because of a similar well-established relationship between current education and current fertility at the societal level, one might expect such education reversals to raise fertility. However, if there is an additional negative effect of low educational level among currently young women compared with that in the past, which would accord with ideas about the impact of relative deprivation, the total effect of an education reversal may run in either direction. This possibility has not been explored in earlier studies, which have taken a more static approach. We focus on the initiation of childbearing. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 16 sub-Saharan African countries with multiple surveys, we estimate a fixed-effects multilevel model for first births that includes the woman's own education, community education, and community education relative to the past. There are negative effects of individual and community education, but no effect of relative education. Thus we conclude that education reversals do seem to speed up entry into parenthood.     

Older women and family care in Hong Kong: differences in filial expectation and practices

Cultural aspects of aging have great importance on how older women and men are being treated, in particular in Asia where patriarchal practices dominate. Further, changes in the structure of the Chinese family alter this supportive function, and changes in traditional values affect the nature of the care and support provided to older women and men. This proposition was investigated by a quantitative study involving a survey of 390 older persons in Hong Kong. There are great discrepancies in informal support for older women and men. Older women are less likely to live with adult children; more likely to need financial assistance; and more likely to receive poor informal support. There is evidence that informal support for the elderly is changing in Hong Kong, and older women are being disadvantaged, experiencing insufficient and unavailability of informal support.     

The role of medium conditioning in the population dynamics of the housefly

Summary The role of larval medium conditioning on the behavior of larvae and of ovipositing adults of the housefly,Musca domestica L., was investigated through behavioral preference tests. Larvae were strongly attracted to medium conditioned by themselves or other larvae, while adult females overwhelmingly oviposited in fresh medium. Medium conditioning occurs within a few hours after hatching of an egg cohort and is effective in preventing overcrowding of a single site by shutting off further oviposition within 24 hours after eggs are initially deposited. A model of medium conditioning optimizes density for developing larvae and could also provide for regulation of local larval populations. This study was carried out during the tenure of grants from the National Science Foundation (GB-35473) and The National Institutes of Health (1-R01-AI-10988-01) to the senior author.     

How does population growth contribute to rising energy consumption in America?

The contribution of American population growth to rising energy consumption is analyzed for the period 1947–91. Energy consumption is disaggregated into electricity and nonelectricity consumption, and by end-use sectors: residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation. Population growth has been relatively unimportant as a contributor to yearly fluctuations in energy consumption. However, whereas energy changes induced by nonpopulation factors are erratic, sometimes adding consumption and sometimes subtracting, population growth consistently adds to consumption. As a result, depending upon which energy sector is considered, population growth may have a dominant role in the longterm growth of consumption.     

Studies on the adult polymorphism in the southern green stink bug,Nezara viridula (hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

Summary Polymorphism in adult colour pattern ofNezara viridula is determined on the genetic basis. The basic colour patterns of adult are classified into four types, i. e. G, O, R and F. No appreciable differences between these types were observed in respect to various physiological traits of nymphs and adults, except that type G seems to be superior in reproductive ability but to be inferior in ability of surviving winters at least to types R and F. Inter-generation changes in percentage frequency of G type were examined from 1959 to 1967 covering more than 30 generations. Percentage frequencies of G types prior to the severe winter of 1962–3 fluctuated greatly around a mean of 87.9%, while they did to a lesser extent than before with a mean of 85.0% after the winter. Unexpected high percentages of G type were recorded frequently in summer generations, viz. 1st and 2nd. On the other hand, the relative frequencies of G and O types decreased after hibernation in contrast to the increases in those of F and R. This sort of changes in genetic composition related to the winter of 1962–3 was observed in several populations segregated from each other. This seasonal alternation of selective activity in the environments is considered to be responsible for retention of the polymorphism. Alternative possible causes, i. e. difference in habitat preference, non-random mating and selective predation by predators among polymorphs, may safely be rejected as irrelevant to the mechanism in maintaining polymorphism. The polymorphism of this insect seems to be in a transient state rather than balanced one contributing little to population regulation, but the persistence ofN. viridula in the periphery range may be assisted by retention of the polymorphism.     

The Differential Influence of Women's Residential District on the Risk of Entering First Marriage and Motherhood in Western Germany

This paper investigates the role of women's residential district in the process of family formation in western Germany during the 1980s and 1990s. Our analysis of the transition to first marriage and motherhood is based on the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), which we merge with a rich set of district-level data. The estimated multilevel discrete-time logit models suggest that (1) basically all regional heterogeneity in women's entry into parenthood is due to differences in the respondents' marital status, while there is (2) a constant and significant regional variation in women's first marriage probabilities, which cannot be explained by population composition or by structural contextual effects. Thus, regional influences on fertility behavior do not have an autonomous quality, but are merely mediated through a latent contextual effect on women's risk of entering first marriage, which we attribute to regional socio-cultural milieus.     

Integrated family planning/parasite control project: a different approach to community health problems

An obstacle to the acceptance of family planning is the fact that its advantages are not immediately apparent or tangible. A way to get around this obstacle is through the use of "entry points"--projects which yield tangible results in a relatively short time. Through these entry points, the fieldworker builds credibility and wins the confidence of the people in the community he or she is serving. Thus, when the time comes, the people will be receptive to the family planning message. This strategy of the use of entry points is common to integrated projects with a community development program becoming a sort of entry point for family planning fieldworkers. 1 such project, begun quite recently by the Family Planning Organization of the Philippines (FPOP) in 4 pilot sites, uses deworming as an entry point. It is officially known as the Integrated Family Planning/Parasite Control/Nutrition Project. It is 1 of several projects cosponsored and financed by the Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning (JOICFP) and the Asian Parasite Control Organization (APCO) in almost a dozen other Asian and Latin American countries. The immediate objective of the project is to establish or increase the credibility of family planning fieldworkers among the people in a target area. Fieldwork connected with family planning is conducted alongside a related community health effort that can produce immediate and visible results. The ultimate goal is to encourage community participation to such an extent that there will no longer be a need for the fieldworker. Strategic planning involves thinking up the "backbone" and molding the "skeleton" of the project, i.e., its concept and basic policies. As the project goes into the design and development stage, additional people are drawn into it. Project experience in Thailand underscores the need to consult with local leaders. The earliest projects were initiated in 1976, but some are already showing successful results. The overall Philippine experience provided support to JOICFP Director Kunii's reiteration of his belief in the effectivity of parasite control as an entry point for population planners. Integration of the nutrition element in the project is regarded as essential.