品牌和单品忠诚对在线消费者选择行为的影响研究

不同消费者对于不同品牌特性有不同的偏好和忠诚度,如果不考虑不同类型的偏好,不在消费者品牌选择模型中引入消费者的品牌忠诚或单品忠诚行为,将不能很好地刻画消费者购买行为的异质性和动态性,难以提高模型的解释力度。文章通过构建动态多项Logit离散选择模型,研究和鉴别在线渠道每一个消费者品牌忠诚因子和单品忠诚因子。研究发现,在线环境下消费者在可乐产品的选择上,不同的忠诚特性对在线消费者品牌选择的影响强度是不同的,其中单品忠诚对在线消费者品牌选择的影响最为显著,这不仅刻画了消费者购买概率的异质性,而且提高了模型的解释力度;不同的属性虽然会对在线消费者的品牌选择行为产生影响,但这种影响并不是孤立存在的,而是会受到其他属性或忠诚变量的影响而产生相应变化。     

基于制造商网络渠道选择的双渠道供应链定价 与服务决策研究

本文考虑由线下零售商实体销售与制造商网络销售构成的网络直销,以及由线下零售商实体销售与线上零售商网络销售构成的网络分销两种制造商双渠道模式,研究“搭便车”行为下制造商模式选择和供应链最优定价与服务决策。研究发现:制造商的渠道选择策略与“搭便车”行为程度、消费者偏好网络渠道程度、价格敏感系数等有关。尤其当消费者受到的服务且对价格的敏感性相同时,制造商会选择网络直销双渠道模式。进一步分析消费者“搭便车”行为和网络渠道偏好对制造商渠道选择和定价决策影响发现,制造商在消费者偏好网络渠道程度比较低时应选择网络分销双渠道模式,而当消费者网络渠道偏好和“搭便车”行为程度都比较高时,制造商应选择网络直销双渠道模式。消费者网络渠道偏好或“搭便车”行为程度越大,两种模式下批发价格应设置的更低。网络直销渠道模式下“搭便车”行为程度越大,网络渠道销售价格应设置的更低,而消费者网络渠道偏好程度越大,网络渠道销售价格应设置得更高。     

结伴出行推动消费升级: 基于铁路大数据的分析

结伴行为日益普遍，其在出行、购物、餐饮、休闲及其他商业领域对消费者的购买决策有着重要的影响.随着大数据时代的到来，人们的行为能够被更加精准、系统地记录，为研究结伴行为提供了有力的工具.本文认为，结伴行为背后蕴含了消费者对高品质生活的追求，有助于推动产品消费升级.本文借助铁路出行的视角，基于成渝铁路的客票销售数据，探究消费者结伴出行对铁路客运产品选择的影响.通过应用赫克曼二阶段模型并控制超过130万名乘客的个体固定效应，本文揭示了结伴出行显著正向影响消费者对高级列车和高等座位的选择.另外，人口统计学特征起着显著的调节作用，女性以及年长者结伴出行更倾向于选择高级列车和高等座位.这些发现不仅为铁路管理提供了新思路，更重要的是揭示了结伴行为对消费升级的正向影响作用，为商业服务和公共管理等广泛领域都提供了重要的参考.企业、单位及政府通过鼓励人们的结伴行为，有利于刺激消费者对优质产品和服务的选择.     

消费者选择的Multinomial Logit模型及其应用——以我国轿车市场为例

本文运用Multinomial logit(MNL)模型研究消费者在选择产品过程中其个人特征对消费者选择某个特定因素作为首选因素的影响以及相应的边际影响效果.通过对我国轿车消费者购买选择的实证研究结果表明MNL模型能够很好的反映轿车消费者个人特征和消费者购车时选择特定的因素作为首选因素的关系;实证结果发现消费者选择的首选因素会随着消费者个人特征的不同而发生变化.     

消费者品牌选择之行为经济学研究

当前世界不少国家的经济发展已经由短缺经济走向过剩经济,在激烈竞争的市场环境下,产品品牌已经成为人们进行商品选择的标准。本文在介绍了品牌影响消费者选择行为的具体表现基础上,借助行为经济学的相关理论来分析消费者选择时的心理因素,继而揭示了消费者品牌选择行为发生的内在机理。     

网络视角的风险与时尚对消费者信息搜索行为影响研究

消费者决策一直是消费者行为研究的核心,信息搜索作为消费者决策的第一步受到理论和实践界的普遍关注。互联网时代,消费环境快速变化呈现出网络化特点,消费者追求时尚与个性化,产品技术复杂化增加了消费者购买的风险,这些因素使得消费行为越发嵌入于网络当中。基于此,文章从网络视角出发,以感知风险和时尚为切入点研究社会网络对消费者信息搜索行为的影响。在网络构建上,与通常直接建立网络的方法不同,作者将网络结构指标与回归分析相结合,通过对以往文献的梳理,构建了以网络规模、网络结构洞、网络凝聚子群和关系强度为指标的社会网络结构量表,采用回归的方法揭示社会网络对消费者信息搜索的作用。通过对样本消费者调查研究发现,时尚和社会网络影响消费者信息搜索行为。其中,时尚敏感度与消费者信息搜索行为之间存在正向关联。社会网络中的网络规模和关系强度会分别发挥正向和负向的调节作用,调节时尚敏感度与信息搜索行为之间的关系。该研究在一方面为今后网络角度的消费者行为研究在网络构建上提供帮助,另一方面验证了企业在进行产品设计、品牌营销时,可以借助社会网络,提高战略的针对性和有效性。     

“外察”与“内省”：环境威胁引发的绿色消费意愿研究——基于道德情绪的双路径模型

营销学者在探究绿色消费议题方面做了众多开创性工作,然而针对诱因不同的环境威胁是否及通过怎样的心理路径影响消费者绿色消费意愿的研究仍然匮乏。本文将环境威胁分为自然因素引发的环境威胁和人为因素引发的环境威胁两类,通过4组实验检验了两类环境威胁影响消费者绿色消费意愿的心理机制。研究结果证实了无论哪类环境威胁,都会对绿色产品购买行为产生积极影响,但不同类型的环境威胁会通过差异化认知过程和情绪反应影响绿色产品购买行为。当消费者面对自然因素引发的环境威胁时,其“外察”思维模式会起主导作用,此时敬畏感是促进绿色产品购买意愿的中介变量;当消费者面对人为因素引发的环境威胁时,其“内省”思维模式会起主导作用,此时内疚感是促进绿色产品购买意愿的中介变量。研究也证实了环境威胁对道德情绪的影响会受自然联结性和道德提升感的调节。     

在线评论对电商平台定价与消费者渠道选择的影响

本研究针对在线评论对电商平台定价决策以及消费者行为的影响问题,构建有无在线评论情形下电商平台与制造商之间的博弈模型,比较分析在线评论对系统均衡和消费者行为的影响。研究结果表明：电商平台的定价策略会受到在线评论的影响,当制造商直销渠道与电商平台自营渠道的竞争程度足够大,或者渠道竞争程度较小但在线评论有效性水平足够低时,电商平台才会实施低价策略;在线评论会导致利润在各企业间的重新分配,当渠道竞争程度适中时,在线评论对电商平台有利,对制造商的影响不确定。其次,在线评论的存在会影响消费者选择购买渠道,尤其是部分消费者放弃直销渠道而选择自营渠道购买产品;然而,如果在线评论有效性水平满足一定条件,则消费者参考在线评论可能会放弃购买产品,由此导致产品需求降低。此外,本文还拓展了原始模型,进一步考察电商渠道竞争问题。     

从国外品牌手机的购买意愿看Fishbein模型的适用性以及文化适应的影响

Fishbein行为倾向模型认为消费者对于购买某种产品或品牌的态度以及从众心理会影响购买意愿,由于是基于西方消费者的产品购买行为发展而来,该模型在不同文化下的适用性一直是学术界关注的问题,外来文化会影响消费者对传统价值观的接受以及对产品品牌的选择,产生文化适应现象.对于中国年轻一代消费者,特别是大学生这个重要的消费群体来说,模型能否有效地解释其国外品牌手机的购买意愿,文化适应是否会影响其购买行为是本研究关注的问题.研究结果显示,模型可以解释大学生消费者对国外品牌手机的购买行为,但是在手机产品上的消费经验会对模型的适用性产生影响,而文化适应性也会直接影响购买意愿.     

体验型产品消费行为的羊群效应及机理研究——基于电影行业消费行为的实证解释

互联网环境下消费者购买体验型产品时对网络信息的依赖性很大。因此，研究社交媒体影响下体验型产品的消费者决策选择行为具有现实意义。本文以电影行业的票房偏离及消费跟风现象为切入点，探究体验型产品的羊群效应并对其产生的内在机理进行解释。采集艺恩资讯的票房数据以及豆瓣的电影基本信息及影评等数据作为研究样本，从消费者"羊群行为"视角分析其对电影票房的影响。研究发现：在控制了质量等内生性影响之后，消费者羊群效应依然存在；产品特征信息对羊群效应起到了调节作用，从而形成理性跟随；采用预期差异模型可以解释消费者实现理性跟随的过程。研究结论对于电影行业宏观政策制定及对体验型产品合理进行营销推广提供了理论基础与实证依据。     

Risk-Constrained Information Choice

Ahituv and Wand [1] applied an information economics model to the problem of making information choices using two decision criteria: expected (monetary) payoff and expected risk. Using risk-constrained optimization, they derived a solution in which the use of information is randomized by means of a mixed decision strategy. Although this solution is undominated when the expected payoff/expected risk trade-off boundary is convex, it may be dominated when the boundary is not convex. To avoid such dominance, it is necessary to adjust their solution by randomizing the choice of information rather than its use. For any feasible level of expected risk, this will yield an expected payoff equal to or greater than their solution produces and will always result in an undominated expected payoff/expected risk combination.     

Choice Without Beliefs

We provide an axiomatic foundation for decision making in a complex environment. We do not assume that the decision maker has complete structural knowledge of the environment. Instead the agent knows the set of actions he can take, he formulates preferences directly on the actions, and chooses according to these preferences. On the basis of experience he modifies these preferences according to a systematic procedure. Our axioms are imposed on this procedure, rather than directly on the choice itself. The axioms consist of a group of natural structural restrictions and a group of independence axioms. Our main result is an axiomatic foundation for a set of simple adaptive learning procedures that include the replicator dynamic.     

预期后悔与体验后悔在消费者动态选择过程中的作用机制

本文在一个动态购买场景下考察了预期后悔与体验后悔之间的交互作用及其对购买意愿和满意度的影响.通过一个计算机程序控制的购买决策制定实验,作者发现,在购买之前消费者的预期后悔越高,在购买决策后实际体验到后悔时消费者对相同选项的再购买意愿下降得越大.同时,有关发现还支持了后悔情境下的"向前看"视角,即体验后悔对再购买意愿的影响部分是通过调整对未来的预期后悔传递的,部分是通过影响满意度传递的.     

Using Choice Experiments to Assess People''s Preferences for Railway Transports of Hazardous Materials

This article investigates whether the choice experiment approach can be used to assess people's preferences and the determinants of these preferences in order to estimate the costs and benefits of different configurations of the transport of hazardous materials by rail. Changes in the exposure to hazardous materials that people are subjected to are used rather than changes in accident risk. To the best knowledge of the author, this has not been done before in a study of people's preferences toward hazardous materials. A mail survey, carried out in two cities in Sweden, is used to obtain tentative estimates of the willingness to pay for a reduction in exposure as well as the willingness to accept an increase in exposure. Special attention is given to viability, since the complexity of the activity studied, transport of hazardous materials, and the method used pose particular challenges. The response rate and tests of validity and consistency indicate that this method can be applied. Moreover, the results suggest that studies of this kind may provide guidance on changes in the transport of hazardous materials, especially because policymakers may influence the attributes presented here. Referring to the exposure of hazardous materials highlights the importance of providing the respondents with adequate information regarding hazardous transports. An important finding is that the amount of background information may have some effect on the stated preferences.     

Leveraging the Strengths of Choice Models and Neural Networks: A Multiproduct Comparative Analysis*

Choice models and neural networks are two approaches used in modeling selection decisions. Defining model performance as the out‐of‐sample prediction power of a model, we test two hypotheses: (i) choice models and neural network models are equal in performance, and (ii) hybrid models consisting of a combination of choice and neural network models perform better than each stand‐alone model. We perform statistical tests for two classes of linear and nonlinear hybrid models and compute the empirical integrated rank (EIR) indices to compare the overall performances of the models. We test the above hypotheses by using data for various brand and store choices for three consumer products. Extensive jackknifing and out‐of‐sample tests for four different model specifications are applied for increasing the external validity of the results. Our results show that using neural networks has a higher probability of resulting in a better performance. Our findings also indicate that hybrid models outperform stand‐alone models, in that using hybrid models guarantee overall results equal or better than the two stand‐alone models. The improvement is particularly significant in cases where neither of the two stand‐alone models is very accurate in prediction, indicating that the proposed hybrid models may capture aspects of predictive accuracy that neither stand‐alone model is capable of on their own. Our results are particularly important in brand management and customer relationship management, indicating that multiple technologies and mixture of technologies may yield more accurate and reliable outcomes than individual ones.     

论我国企业对西欧生产性投资的路径选择

积极发展跨国经营,稳步推进“走出去”战略,是我国企业未来发展的重要方向之一。西欧是目前全球最大的经济体,也是对外直接投资最为活跃的地区。本文阐述了我国企业加强对西欧生产性直接投资的必要性,重点分析了对西欧投资的路径选择。     

服务定制情境下选项的战略呈现:呈现框架对消费者选择的影响

在服务定制情境下,企业可以采用两种不同方式让消费者定制服务包:呈现完整服务包让消费者从中删除不想要的业务(减法式);呈现基本服务包让消费者选择添加所需附加业务(加法式).本研究考察了这两种不同的选项呈现方式对消费者心理反应和选择行为的影响,分析了业务类型与呈现方式之间的交互作用,通过以移动通信服务为背景的实验发现:(1)相对于呈现基本服务包来让消费者进行"加法"定制来说,消费者在完整服务包基础上进行"减法"定制时会选择更多数量和更高总金额的附加服务;(2)选项呈现框架与业务类型之间具有显著的交互作用.相对于减法框架,在加法框架下,实用型业务会比享乐型业务更有可能被选择;而在减法框架下,享乐型业务会比实用型业务更有可能被选择;(3)在减法框架下,消费者的反应时间更长,感知到的决策乐趣更高,对决策结果更不易后悔.但是,两种框架下消费者的心理冲突和决策难度没有显著差别.基于上述研究发现,作者讨论了本研究的理论意义和应用价值,并围绕企业如何通过有效的服务业务组合和战略呈现来创造利润提出了管理建议.     

On the Use of Buy Up as a Model of Customer Choice in Revenue Management

We consider settings in which a revenue manager controls bookings over a sequence of flights. The revenue manager uses a buy‐up model to select booking limits and updates estimates of the model parameters as data are accumulated. The buy‐up model we consider is based upon a simple model of customer choice, wherein each low‐fare customer who is not able to purchase a low‐fare ticket will, with a fixed probability, “buy up” to the high fare, independent of everything else. We analyze the evolution of the parameter estimates (e.g., the buy‐up probability) and chosen booking limits in situations where the buy‐up model is misspecified, that is, in situations where there is no setting of its parameters for which its objective function gives an accurate representation of expected revenue as a function of the booking limit. The analysis is motivated by the common situation in which a revenue manager does not know precisely how customers behave but nevertheless uses a parametric model to make decisions. Under some assumptions, we prove that the booking limits and parameter estimates converge and we compare the actual expected revenue at the limiting values with that associated with the booking limits that would be chosen if the revenue manager knew the actual behavior of customers. The analysis shows that the buy‐up model often works reasonably well even when it is misspecified, and also reveals the importance of understanding how parameter estimates of misspecified models vary as functions of decisions.     

Media Appropriateness: Effects of Experience on Communication Media Choice

Organizations are faced with a myriad of emerging advanced information technologies. Management may be anxious about the numerous choices while simultaneously yearning for instant realization of benefits promised by the adopted technologies. Management should also be aware that the eventual institutional use of these technologies is dependent upon the learning and training opportunities presented to individuals. Individual approval or established perceptions toward technology appropriateness are mostly idiosyncratic and contingent upon numerous factors such as task goals or prior technology experience. This paper examines the effect of learning experiences with nine communication media, based on perception changes of media appropriateness. Two hundred and ninety-five MBA students participated in a longitudinal quasi-experimental study. Results indicate that traditionally rich media such as face-to-face, group meetings, and telephone were consistently perceived to be more appropriate than emerging new media over time. However, an individual's specific experience with communication media affects perceptions of media appropriateness, and this is particularly evident in computer-based communications. In addition, changes in perception of media appropriateness were directly related to the participants' learning experience and were particularly salient with new media. Furthermore, increased use of some media was found to be associated with decreased use of other media. This study demonstrates that deliberate technology-use mediation can be an effective management mechanism to facilitate an individual's ability to gain experience in the use of new technologies. This paper also suggests that an individual's media experiences and temporal factors are two important but underemphasized factors in understanding and studying technology choice and use.     

Learning and Open Source Software License Choice

Licensing is the defining characteristic of open source software (OSS) and often has tremendous impact on the success of OSS projects. However, OSS licenses are very different from those for proprietary software, and our understanding of the choice of OSS licenses is very limited. In this study, we explore this important decision from a learning perspective. We build collaboration networks and trace paths through which potential learning and knowledge flow across projects using a dataset derived from SourceForge. We identify that both experiential learning and vicarious learning have significant influence on OSS license choice. We provide reasons why experiential learning and vicarious learning affect decision‐making regarding OSS license choice, and explore important contingencies under which the two modes of learning are more effective. We find that leadership roles on prior projects and similarities between projects significantly moderate these two modes of learning, respectively. More importantly, we argue and empirically illustrate that experiential learning is more effective than vicarious learning in influencing OSS license choice. Our research sheds new light on our understanding of license choice for OSS projects and provides practical guidelines for future OSS development.