Intergenerational patterns of teenage fertility

One of the frequently cited consequences of teen childbearing is the repetition of early births across generations, which thereby perpetuates a cycle of poverty and disadvantage. We use data from the 1988 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), Cycle IV, to examine trends and determinants of the intergenerational teen fertility link for women who reached adolescence between the 1950s and the 1980s. We find that daughters of both white and black teen mothers face significantly higher risks of teen childbearing than daughters of older mothers. We also find, more generally, that patterns of teenage family formation (i.e., both marriage and childbearing behaviors) tend to be repeated intergenerationally. The results suggest that the intrafamily propensity for early childbearing is not inherited biologically, at least not through factors related to the timing of puberty. Rather, the intergenerational patterns appear to operate at least in part through the socioeconomic and family context in which children grow up.     

A simplified robust estimate of the birth rate

It is shown that other estimates of the birthrate can be derived from Coale's robust birthrate estimate. Coale's estimate is nearly equal to the birthrate obtainable from reverse survival or reverse projection of the proportion of a population under age 15 (both sexes), or C(15), using a life table corresponding to l5. As a sequel to this, a birth rate estimate was obtained that does not require reference to stable population models and results in computational economy and ease. Taking advantage of the strong linear relation between l5 and 15L0, a simple robust estimate was derived of the birthrate that does not depend upon model stable populations or model life tables. After presenting these methods, their use is illustrated with data from several Asian and African countries. Coale (1981) suggested using the observed C(15) for both sexes and l5 to locate an appropriate stable population from a family of stable models to represent the observed population and to use its birthrate as an estimate of the population under study. The estimate of l5 can be obtained by any of the indirect methods like the Brass method. Coale observed that such methods yield birthrates that are not much affected even when the populations are not stable. He also suggested an adjustment for the stable birthrate for nonstability. To obtain the birthrate, one needs the denominator, namely, the number of persons that lived. This is obtained by using the rate of increase, r, which differs for a stable and a nonstable or observed population. Various methods can be used to obtain the time reference of the mortality estimate, l5, by providing years prior to the survey or census to which the l5 estimate is applicable.     

Fertility effects of abortion and birth control pill access for minors

This article empirically assesses whether age-restricted access to abortion and the birth control pill influence minors’ fertility in the United States. There is not a strong consensus in previous literature regarding the relationship between laws restricting minors’ access to abortion and minors’ birthrates. This is the first study to recognize that state laws in place prior to the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision enabled minors to legally consent to surgical treatment—including abortion—in some states but not in others, and to construct abortion access variables reflecting this. In this article, age-specific policy variables measure either a minor’s legal ability to obtain an abortion or to obtain the birth control pill without parental involvement. I find fairly strong evidence that young women’s birthrates dropped as a result of abortion access as well as evidence that birth control pill access led to a drop in birthrates among whites.     

Job loss and health in the U.S. labor market

While U.S. unemployment rates remain low, rates of job loss are high and rising. Job loss is also becoming increasingly common in more advantaged, white-collar occupations. This article is concerned with how these patterns impact the health of U.S. workers. Drawing on recent data from the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I find that job loss harms health, beyond sicker people being more likely to lose their jobs. Respondents who lost jobs but were reemployed at the survey faced an increased risk of developing new health conditions; they were not, however, more likely to describe their health in negative terms. This suggests that recent job “churning” within the United States (i.e., high rates of job loss but low unemployment) may impact certain health outcomes but not others. I find no evidence that the health consequences of job loss differ across white- and blue-collar occupations, although health-related selection out of jobs appears stronger within the blue-collar category.     

Informal search,bad search?: the effects of job search method on wages among rural migrants in urban China

The use of informal job search method is prevalent in many countries. There is, however, no consensus in the literature on whether it actually matters for wages, and if it does, what are the underlying mechanisms. We empirically examine these issues specifically for rural migrants in urban China, a country where one of the largest domestic migration in human history has occurred over the past decades. We find that there exists a significant wage penalty for those migrant workers who have conducted their search through informal channels, despite their popularity. Our further analysis suggests two potential reasons for the wage penalty: (1) the informal job search sends a negative signal (of workers’ inability to successfully find a job in a competitive market) to potential employers, resulting in lower wages, and (2) there exists a trade-off between wages and search efficiency for quicker entry into local labor market. We also find some evidence that the informal job search may lead to low-skilled jobs with lower wages. We do not find strong evidence supporting alternative explanations.     

The Impact of State Abortion Policies on Teen Pregnancy Rates

The availability of abortion provides insurance against unwanted pregnancies since abortion is the only birth control method which allows women to avoid an unwanted birth once they are pregnant. Restrictive state abortion policies, which increase the cost of obtaining an abortion, may increase women’s incentive to alter their pregnancy avoidance behavior, thereby reducing the likelihood of unwanted pregnancies. This study, using state-level data for the years 1982, 1992, and 2000, examines the impact of restrictive state abortion laws on teen pregnancy rates. The empirical results indicate that the price of an abortion, Medicaid funding restrictions, and informed consent laws reduce teen, minor teen and non-minor teen pregnancy rates. The empirical results suggest that these abortion policy restrictions affect the unprotected sexual activity of teens resulting in fewer unwanted teen pregnancies.     

Last Hired,First Fired? Black-White Unemployment and the Business Cycle

Studies have tested the claim that blacks are the last hired during periods of economic growth and the first fired in recessions by examining the movement of relative unemployment rates over the business cycle. Any conclusion drawn from this type of analysis must be viewed as tentative because cyclical movements in the underlying transitions into and out of unemployment are not examined. Using Current Population Survey data matched across adjacent months from 1989–2004, this article provides the first detailed examination of labor market transitions for primeage black and white men to test the last hired, first fired hypothesis. Considerable evidence is presented that blacks are the first fired as the business cycle weakens. However, no evidence is found that blacks are the last hired. Instead, blacks appear to be initially hired from the ranks of the unemployed early in the business cycle and later are drawn from nonparticipation. The narrowing of the racial unemployment gap near the peak of the business cycle is driven by a reduction in the rate of job loss for blacks rather than increases in hiring.     

Of Letters and Lists: How the MPAA Puts Films Recommended for LGBTQ Adolescents Out of Reach

ABSTRACT

The film ratings system employed by the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) has been criticized by LGBTQ critics who claim the system discriminates by holding queer content to a higher ratings standard than content in other films. The MPAA argues the constituency for its ratings system is parents in traditional families who may find queer themes inappropriate for their children. Paradoxically, a number of organizations serving adolescents identifying as LGBTQ or as questioning their sexualities have created lists of recommended films, many of whose MPAA ratings make them virtually off-limits to teens unless their parents approve. Cyberspace is also populated with lists of films recommended for teens regardless of their sexuality and gender identity. This article compares ratings distributions for lists of films recommended for queer teens and those recommended for mainstream teens and finds evidence of negative impact on access by queer teens to potentially helpful film content.     

Women’s Job Quality Across Family Life Stages: An Analysis of Female Employees Across 27 European Countries

There is little empirical evidence on how working conditions affect women’s employment and fertility choices, despite a number of studies on the impact of individual-level and institutional factors. The article addresses this gap by examining how family life stages are related to particular aspects of job quality among employed women in 27 European countries. The central argument of the analysis is that high-quality jobs are conducive to both transitions to motherhood and employment after childbirth as women select into these roles. Accordingly, mothers of young children, if employed, are expected to have relatively better quality jobs. Four dimensions of job quality are considered: job security, career progression, working time and intrinsic job quality. The results indicate that mothers with young children are more likely to hold high-quality jobs than women at other life stages with respect to working time quality and job security, but with some variation across countries for job security. The findings highlight the importance of high-quality jobs for women’s fertility decisions and labour market attachment after childbirth, with implications for European employment policy.     

The effects of job displacement on job quality: Findings from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study

This study examines the extent to which job displacement divides the career experiences for a cohort of workers. Previous studies of job displacement find nontrivial economic losses for displaced workers, but the effects of displacement on “non-economic” properties of jobs have been largely overlooked. Results using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study indicate that workers who were displaced have lower levels of occupational status, job authority, and employer-offered pension and health insurance than they would have had had they not been displaced. Difference-in-differences estimates, which control for temporally-invariant unobserved heterogeneity, are generally larger than cross-sectional estimates; still, there is a close correspondence of estimates across a range of methodological approaches attesting to the robustness of the estimates in the face of various technical assumptions and model specifications. Effects of displacement on job quality also exhibit conditioning by gender, education, occupation, and industry: while less educated, blue collar and manufacturing workers experience significant losses for employer-offered benefits, more educated, upper white collar and non-manufacturing workers experience significant losses for occupational status, job autonomy, and job authority.     

Private schools and "Latino flight" from black schoolchildren

Several recent studies provided evidence that white students' choice between private and public schools is influenced by the racial composition of the local student population. None of these studies, however, examined whether Latinos are also fleeing to private schools in response to black schoolchildren. I explore the "Latino-flight" hypothesis using data from the National Educational Longitudinal Study and a recently released confidential data set from the National Center for Educational Statistics. In probit regressions for the probability of Latinos attending private schools, I found a large, positive, and statistically significant coefficient on the black share of the school-age population. The coefficient estimates imply that a 10-percentage point increase in the black share increases the probability of private school attendance by 25.7% to 33.2% among Latino 8th graders and 35.2% to 52.2% among Latino 10th graders. I interpret these results as providing evidence of "Latino flight" from public schools into private schools. I did not find evidence that Latinos respond differently to black schoolchildren than do whites.     

Interrelated family-building behaviors: Cohabitation, marriage, and nonmarital conception

Data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 are used to estimate a series of models of entry into marriage, entry into cohabitation, and nonmarital pregnancy. Our models account explicitly for the endogeneity of one outcome as a predictor of another by taking into account both heterogeneity across individuals due to unmeasured factors that may affect all these outcomes and the correlation in the unmeasured factors across processes. We find that these heterogeneity components are strongly and positively related across the outcomes. Women who are more likely to cohabit, marry, or become pregnant while unmarried are also more likely to do each of the others. Although black and white women differ in the likelihood of these behaviors, the interrelations of the behaviors are quite similar across groups.     

Public Sector Employment Inequality in the United States and the Great Recession

Historically in the United States, the public sector has served as an equalizing institution through the expansion of job opportunities for minority workers. This study examines whether the public sector continues to serve as an equalizing institution in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Using data from the Current Population Survey, I investigate changes in public sector employment between 2003 and 2013. My results point to a post-recession double disadvantage for black public sector workers: they are concentrated in a shrinking sector of the economy, and they are more likely than white and Hispanic public sector workers to experience job loss. These two trends are a historical break for the public sector labor market. I find that race and ethnicity gaps in public sector employment cannot be explained by differences in education, occupation, or any of the other measurable factors that are typically associated with employment. Among unemployed workers who most recently worked for the public sector, black women are the least likely to transition into private sector employment.     

失地农民工作关系认同度及其决定因素——基于宁波和周口市的实证考察

为失地农民建立有保障的工作关系,既是确保失地农民利益的长效机制,也是推进失地农民市民化的根本举措。然而,文章基于宁波和周口两市比较研究结果显示,失地农民失地后普遍没有建立起稳定有保障非歧视性正式工作关系,所以无论在物质补偿较为丰腴的发达地区,还是补偿水平较低的不发达地区,失地农民对失地后建立起来的工作关系认同度普遍较低。这种情况除了与年龄、家庭成员工作关系、未来工作信心等因素有关,政府职能缺失也是各地区失地农民工作关系认同度较低的重要原因。     

Home Ownership and Job Satisfaction

This paper investigates the link between job satisfaction and home ownership. We explicitly focus on the effect of a transition from non-ownership to ownership on the self-reported job satisfaction scores. In other words, we concentrate on the change in job satisfaction response for individuals observed right before and after the transition. Utilizing the panel feature of the British Household Panel Survey, we find that transition to ownership reduces job satisfaction within a year following the purchase—controlling for observed variation and unobserved heterogeneity. The reduction in job satisfaction is sharper when the purchase is financed through a mortgage. We also test if this pattern persists over years. We show that the initial reduction in job satisfaction is more than doubled within 3 years after the transition for both categories of ownership. We conclude that home ownership may be a constraint for the career prospects of the employed workers, since it reduces mobility and forces them to become more dependent on the local labor market conditions. These concerns are deeper in case of a debt-financed ownership.     

Early teen marriage and future poverty

Both early teen marriage and dropping out of high school have historically been associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including higher poverty rates throughout life. Are these negative outcomes due to preexisting differences, or do they represent the causal effect of marriage and schooling choices? To better understand the true personal and societal consequences, in this article, I use an instrumental variables (IV) approach that takes advantage of variation in state laws regulating the age at which individuals are allowed to marry, drop out of school, and begin work. The baseline IV estimate indicates that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be poor. The results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. While grouped ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates for the early teen marriage variable are also large, OLS estimates based on individual-level data are small, consistent with a large amount of measurement error.Historically, individuals were allowed to enter into a marriage contract at a very young age. In Ancient Rome, the appropriate minimum age was regarded as 14 for males and 12 for females. When Rome became Christianized, these age minimums were adopted into the ecclesiastical law of the Catholic Church. This canon law governed most marriages in Western Europe until the Reformation. When England broke away from the Catholic Church, the Anglican Church carried with it the same minimum age requirements for the prospective bride and groom. The minimum age requirements of 12 and 14 were eventually written into English civil law. By default, these provisions became the minimum marriage ages in colonial America. These common laws inherited from the British remained in force in America unless a specific state law was enacted to replace them (see “Marriage Law,” Encyclopædia Britannica 2005; http://www.britannica.com).While Roman, Catholic, English, and early American law may have allowed marriage at 12 for girls and 14 for boys, many questioned the advisability of such early unions. Researchers and policymakers around the turn of the twentieth century recognized that teens may be especially ill-prepared to assume the familial responsibilities and financial pressures associated with marriage.¹ As a result of the changing economic and social landscape of the United States, in the latter part of the nineteenth century and throughout the twentieth century, individual states began to slowly raise the minimum legal age at which individuals were allowed to marry. In the United States, as in most developed countries, age restrictions have been revised upward so that they are now between 15 and 21 years of age.During this same time period, dramatic changes were also occurring in the educational system of the United States (see Goldin 1998, 1999; Goldin and Katz 1997, 2003; Lleras-Muney 2002). Free public schooling at the elementary level spread across the United States in the middle of the nineteenth century, and free secondary schooling proliferated in the early part of the twentieth century. As secondary schooling became more commonplace, states began to pass compulsory schooling laws. States often also passed child labor laws that stipulated minimum age or schooling requirements before a work permit would be granted. These state-specific compulsory schooling and child labor laws are correlated with the legal restrictions on marriage age, indicating that it might be important to consider the impact of all the laws simultaneously.There are at least two rationales often given for the use of state laws as policy instruments to limit teenagers’ choices. The first argument is that teens do not accurately compare short-run benefits versus long-run costs. If teens are making myopic decisions, restrictive state laws could prevent decisions they will later regret. It is also argued that the adverse effects associated with teenagers’ choices impose external costs on the rest of society. If these effects can be prevented, external costs (such as higher welfare expenditures) would also argue for restrictive state laws. Both teenage marriage and dropping out of high school are closely associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including poverty later in life. To assess the relevance of either argument, however, it is important to know whether the observed effects are causal.Any observed negative effects may be due to preexisting differences rather than a causal relationship between teen marriage (or schooling choices) and adverse adult outcomes. Women who marry as teens or drop out of school may come from more disadvantaged backgrounds or possess other unobserved characteristics that would naturally lead to worse outcomes. For example, teens choosing to marry young might have lower unobserved earnings ability, making it hard to draw conclusions about the causal relationship between teenage marriage and poverty.To identify the effect of a teenager’s marriage and schooling choices on future poverty, I use state-specific marriage, schooling, and child labor laws as instruments. Variation in these laws across states and over time can be used to identify the causal impact that teen marriage and high school completion have on future economic well-being. Although compulsory schooling laws have been used as instruments in a variety of settings, this appears to be the first time marriage laws have been used as instruments. The idea of the marriage law instrument is that states with restrictive marriage laws will prevent some teenagers from marrying who would have married young had they lived in a state with more permissive laws.Using the marriage, schooling, and labor laws affecting teens as instruments for early marriage and high school completion, I find strong negative effects for both variables on future poverty status. The baseline instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be living in a family whose income is below the poverty line. The IV results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. In comparison, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are very sensitive to how the data is aggregated, particularly for the early marriage variable. OLS estimates using grouped data are also large, while OLS estimates using individual-level data indicate a small effect for early teen marriage. Auxiliary data indicate a large amount of measurement error in the early marriage variable, suggesting the presence of attenuation bias in the individual-level OLS estimates.The remainder of the article proceeds as follows. I first briefly review the negative outcomes associated with teenage marriage and dropping out of school and discuss alternative perspectives on why teens might make these decisions. The following section describes the data and presents OLS estimates. The next section discusses the early marriage, compulsory schooling, and child labor laws that will be used as instruments. I then present the instrumental variable estimates and conduct several specification and robustness checks, including a discussion of measurement error issues and a reconciliation with the literature on teenage childbearing.     

Migration,Marital Change,and HIV Infection in Malawi

Research on the relationship between migration and HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa often suggests that migrants are at higher risk of HIV infection because they are more likely to engage in HIV risk behaviors than nonmigrants, and they tend to move to areas with a relatively higher HIV prevalence. Although migration may be a risk factor for HIV infection, I instead focus on the possibility that the HIV positive are more likely to migrate. Using a longitudinal data set of permanent rural residents and migrants from Malawi, I find that migrants originating from rural areas are indeed more likely than nonmigrants to be HIV positive and to have engaged in HIV risk behaviors. The increased HIV risk among migrants may be due to the selection of HIV-positive individuals into migration; I find that HIV-positive individuals are more likely to migrate than those who are HIV negative. The explanation for this phenomenon appears to be marital instability, which occurs more frequently among HIV-positive individuals and leads to migration after marital change.     

Neighborhood context and the transition to sexual activity among young black women

Previous studies report that neighborhood characteristics influence pregnancy and childbearing risk among African-American adolescent women. These studies, however, leave unidentified the effects of many neighborhood properties on the proximate determinants of nonmarital fertility. In this study I examine the effects of neighborhood characteristics on the risk of nonmarital first intercourse and on contraceptive use among black female adolescents. The results suggest that neighborhood socioeconomic status, female employment and marital dissolution rates, and peers’ departure from mainstream lifecourse trajectories influence young black women’s sexual and contraceptive behavior. The effects of female employment and socioeconomic status are greater for teens in urban neighborhoods than for teens living elsewhere.     

The response of Japanese wives’ labor supply to husbands’ job loss

This paper examines how Japanese wives react to their husbands’ involuntary job loss and tests the existence of complementarity of a wife’s labor supply to her husband’s. Utilizing panel data on Japanese households from 1993 to 2004, we found that wives’ labor supply is stimulated when husbands suffer involuntary job loss. The detailed statistics show that not only do working wives raise their labor hours but also nonworking wives begin to participate in the labor market. The added worker effect is evident during the period of job insecurity in Japan following the mid-1990s.     

National estimates of teenage sexual activity: Evaluating the comparability of three national surveys

In this article, we examine the reliability with which teenage sexual activity was reported in three recent national surveys. Unlike other study-effects analyses of objective demographic phenomena such as births and marriages, ours focuses on a more sensitive question--age at first intercourse as reported in three very different surveys. Specifically, we compare reports for the 1959-1963 cohort in the 1979 Kantner-Zelnik Study of Young Women, the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth, and the 1983 wave of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. For the ages when the majority of teens become sexually active (16-19), the three surveys provide comparable estimates of early sexual activity. For the younger teen ages, however, there is some disagreement among the estimates. Nevertheless, all three studies produce consistent estimates of the determinants of sexual activity throughout the teen years.