Perceived Hazard and Product Choice: An Application to Recreational Site Choice

We develop a "perceived hazard" model that estimates consumers' endogenous risk perceptions about products. These perceptions are then linked to a model of product choice. Our approach thus departs from the expected utility model that depends upon external risk assessments. In an application to recreational fishing, we find that anglers' perceived hazards associated with fish consumption advisories do affect product (recreational site) choice. Anglers' perceptions also affect welfare measures because the benefits of contaminant removal flow from these perceptions. The perceived hazard/product choice model is applicable to a wide variety of risky choices consumers face.     

Heterogeneous and Correlated Risk Preferences in Commercial Fishermen: <Emphasis Type="Italic">The Perfect Storm</Emphasis> Dilemma

Commercial fishing involves both physical and financial risks. This combination questions whether fishermen are inherently risk-loving, whether physical and financial risk preferences are correlated, and how much preferences vary across fishermen. This paper addresses these questions with a panel data set of daily participation decisions in the California sea urchin dive fishery. Weather buoy data and the prevalence of great white sharks at a particular fishing site proxy for physical risk. Overall, urchin fishermen are not risk-loving on average, risk preferences are heterogeneous, and there is some evidence that risk preferences are positively correlated across physical and financial domains.JEL Classification: Q22, D81     

Comparative institutions and management resiliency in Latin American small-scale fisheries

Encroachment by commercial fleets on small-scale fishing territories throughout Latin America over the last half-century is increasing inter-sector conflict. Small-scale fishery production is crucial to communities that rely on fish as a key source of protein in daily consumption and for supplying increased demand. As the continued viability of local management is threatened, we need to properly understand under what conditions informal institutions are resilient. Seven published Latin American case studies test which model management principles correlate with resilience. Shoreline exchange is identified as an effective practice promoting reciprocity and rapid collective action in the face of external threats.     

蓝田华胥陵--中华民族的始祖陵

根据古代神话传说 ,盘古开天辟地之后乃有三皇。三皇的说法不一 ,笔者认为从时间早晚上当以燧人氏、伏羲氏和女娲氏为宜。伏羲和女娲皆是神性和人性相结合的人类始祖 ,是东方的“亚当和夏娃”。伏羲和女娲乃华胥氏所生的儿女 ,因此华胥氏是中华民族最早的始祖。蓝田县华胥镇之羲母陵是独一无二的华胥陵 ,华胥陵及与华胥陵相关的三皇故居等遗迹遗址具有重大的历史价值和开发价值     

东北亚通古斯语族民族比较研究

东北亚通古斯语族民族属于中俄两国的跨界民族.自中俄分江而治后,在不同文化影响下,同根同族的通古斯语族各族经济文化发生了巨大变迁,其传统的渔猎生产生活方式正在急速变迁,语言文化也正在走向消亡.     

'To live this poor life': Remembering the Hottentots Huisie squatter fishery,Cape Town,c.1934-c.1965

The paper provides a social history of a Cape Town squatter fishing settlement, Hottentots Huisie, drawn primarily from the oral histories of its inhabitants before their forced removal under apartheid Group Areas legislation in the mid 1960s. Such use of oral history has fallen into disfavour with South African social historians, increasingly suspicious of the 1980s orthodoxy that all underclass biography is reducible to the essences of 'community' and 'resistance'. The life histories of Hottentots Huisie's inhabitants defy such easy categorization. Family not 'community' sustained the fishing economy. The tenuous economic base of squatter families, however, produced a robust patriarchy seeking to maintain male control over the labour of women and children through monopolization of the folk biology of fishing and its cash rewards, backed up by violence. Second generation squatter girls, however, refused domestic indenture to fishermen by deserting Hottentots Huisie for the greater freedom and opportunity of Cape Town's urban economy, dooming the settlement to extinction regardless of forced removal. Similarly, squatter 'resistance' to bureaucrats and bosses can also best be characterized as 'everyday' and took the form of squatting and crayfish poaching whose aim was 'working the system to their minimum disadvantage'. Ironically, the act of forced removal created the surviving Hottentots Huisie 'community' of memory.     

Decision analysis using lottery-dependent utility

In this article we show how the lottery-dependent expected utility (LDEU) model can be used in decision analysis. The LDEU model is an extension of the classical expected utility (EU) model and yet permits preference patterns that are infeasible in the EU model. We propose a framework for constructing decision trees in a particular way that permits us to use the principle of optimality and thus the divide and conquer strategy for analyzing complex problems using the LDEU model. Our approach may be applicable to some other nonlinear utility models as well. The result is that, if desired, decision analysis can be conducted without assuming the restrictive substitution principle/independence axiom.     

游移于汉、苗文化罅隙之间的歌者——论苗族诗人何小竹的区域文化特质

苗族诗人何小竹游移于汉、苗两种语言罅隙之间的写作姿态,其诗歌"下笔如有鬼"的独异品格一方面是他充分发挥苗文化巫术文化传统的结果,另一方面又给予他进行"语言还原"诗歌实践强大的支援力量与依据,从而使得他在"非非主义"中赢得了独树一帜的地位.     

Policy Stable States in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

A new approach to policy analysis is formulated within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. A policy is defined as a plan of action for a decision maker (DM) that specifies the DM’s intended action starting at every possible state in a graph model of a conflict. Given a profile of policies, a Policy Stable State (PSS) is a state that no DM moves away from (according to its policy), and such that no DM would prefer to change its policy given the policies of the other DMs. The profile of policies associated to a PSS is called a Policy Equilibrium. Properties of PSSs are developed, and a refinement is suggested that restricts DMs to policies that are credible in that they are in the DM’s immediate interest. Relationships with existing stability definitions in the graph model for conflict resolution are then explored.     

Combining strength and uncertainty for preferences in the graph model for conflict resolution with multiple decision makers

A hybrid preference framework is proposed for strategic conflict analysis to integrate preference strength and preference uncertainty into the paradigm of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) under multiple decision makers. This structure offers decision makers a more flexible mechanism for preference expression, which can include strong or mild preference of one state or scenario over another, as well as equal preference. In addition, preference between two states can be uncertain. The result is a preference framework that is more general than existing models which consider preference strength and preference uncertainty separately. Within the hybrid preference structure, four kinds of stability are defined as solution concepts and a post-stability analysis, called status quo analysis, which can be used to track the evolution of a given conflict. Algorithms are provided for implementing the key inputs of stability analysis and status quo analysis within the extended preference structure. The new stability concepts under the hybrid preference structure can be used to model complex strategic conflicts arising in practical applications, and can provide new insights for the conflicts. The method is illustrated using the conflict over proposed bulk water exports from Lake Gisborne in Newfoundland, Canada.     

从《诗经》看周族先祖的农事活动

中国自古以农立国,有着悠久的农业生产历史。因此,中国古代诗歌,不管是对现实的描绘,还是情感的抒发,不免带有农业文化的烙印,直接或间接地反映出农业社会的诸方面内容。《诗经》中的大量诗篇对周族先祖的农耕、纺织、渔猎、采集和畜牧活动都有详细的记述和描绘。     

Structured Partisan Competition: A Vote Shares Model of Party Alignments and Realignments*

Objective. This study develops and tests an aggregate “vote shares” model of party alignments and realignments, building a theoretical framework around “structured political composition” (Rabinowitz, Gurian, and Macdonald, 1984, p. 6). The vote shares model conceptualizes party alignments as latent class constructs, or factors, and changes in these latent class constructs as party realignments. Methods. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) model with bias corrected bootstrap estimates and standard errors is used where the cases are counties and the variables are aggregate election outcomes. The data come from Kansas from 1900 to 2010. Results. Comparing the findings of the vote‐shares approach to those of Nardulli (2005) and Sundquist (1983) suggests that the vote shares model provides a greater depth of understanding and a more accurate portrait of the timing of realignments and the partisan bias of new alignments in Kansas. The vote shares model also overcomes the major problem of false positives associated with landslide elections, a problem that plagued most previous aggregate voting models. Conclusion. The vote‐shares model of party alignments and realignments provides a viable alternative for analyzing historic and current election returns where the votes are aggregated by a geographically defined government jurisdiction (parish, county, city, or district).     

Infusing research integrity principles and practices into a regional master's degree-intensive university: a case study

The need for institutions of higher education to advance research and scholarly integrity across graduate degree programs involves a strong commitment from each institution to develop a comprehensive approach for promoting responsible conduct of research (RCR). In response to this need, one master's-intensive regional university implemented a three-tier model project (focusing, developing, and evaluating/sustaining) for infusing research integrity principles and practices while promoting RCR. Components of the model and implementation strategies are presented as a case study analysis. Implications of the model for promoting the RCR are projected relative to graduate programs focused on applied research.     

Infusing Research Integrity Principles and Practices into a Regional Master's Degree–Intensive University: A Case Study

The need for institutions of higher education to advance research and scholarly integrity across graduate degree programs involves a strong commitment from each institution to develop a comprehensive approach for promoting responsible conduct of research (RCR). In response to this need, one master's-intensive regional university implemented a three-tier model project (focusing, developing, and evaluating/sustaining) for infusing research integrity principles and practices while promoting RCR. Components of the model and implementation strategies are presented as a case study analysis. Implications of the model for promoting the RCR are projected relative to graduate programs focused on applied research.     

Plural analysis: Multiple approaches to quantitative research

The dominant approach to decision analysis in particular, and quantitative research in general, issingular, i.e., all conclusions are based on a single preferred model or approach. Inplural analysis, several singular analyses are pursued in parallel, the typically conflicting results are merged. Although it is a central feature of intelligent everyday thinking, plural analysis has largely been ignored by the research community. This paper reports on an ongoing, multidisciplinary, research program, supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research, to establish guidelines, grounded in defensible theory, for designing a plural analysis strategy (where appropriate) and integrating the results of analysis.     

The diagnostic process as a statistical-causal analysis

The model of statistical-causal analysis developed by Stegmüller (1973) with reference to Salmon (1970, 1971) is applied to the diagnostic process and suggested as a replacement for the model of inductive-statistical systematization in the context of normative diagnostics (Westmeyer, 1972). For a generalization of the model with respect to discrete random variables, an algorithmic construction of the diagnostic process is given generally and then elucidated by a simple example. It becomes apparent that this model avoids important problems which confront normative diagnostics relying on the model of inductive-statistical systematization.     

A Model for Implementing an Evidence-Based Practice in Student Fieldwork Placements: Barriers and Facilitators to the Use of “SBIRT”

ABSTRACT

This article reports on focus group data analysis that was used to understand initial, largely positive outcomes from a university-based initiative to disseminate and implement an evidence-based practice (EBP)—Screening, Brief Intervention, and Referral to Treatment for Substance Use (SBIRT)—into student fieldwork placements, which are usual care social work settings. Focus groups were conducted with three groups of stakeholders involved in the ongoing project: social work department faculty (n = 10), bachelor- and master-level social work students (n = 8), and social work fieldwork instructors (n = 6). Dimensional analysis of the focus group data yielded results indicating that dissemination and implementation of SBIRT was influenced by agency- and school-level factors and perceived fit between the EBP and individual professional identity, intrapersonal characteristics, and timing. The resulting model, developed through the focus group analysis, is offered and shows how these factors interacted and affected training, supervision, and use of the EBP. The model provides social work educational programs and agencies a working tool for diagnosing and proactively addressing barriers and breakdowns in the EBP implementation process. Future research that tests the model as a diagnostic tool and generates knowledge about its influence in developing competent evidence-based practitioners is indicated. Future focus groups in relation to this initiative are needed to better understand these barriers and facilitators in the EBP implementation process and their critical roles in the process of translating SBIRT into standard social work practice.     

Mixed qualitative calculus as a tool in policy modeling: A dynamic simulation model of urban decline

Qualitative calculus of policy models is an appropriate method for policy impact analysis in the case of imprecise information concerning the structural model parameters. The conditions of the so-called sign-solvability analysis of a linear equation system—with information represented by a positive, negative, or zero impact—are strict, however. In this paper, the relevance of qualitative calculus for urban policy modelling is discussed. An extension of the sign-solvability approach (with purely qualitative information) will be dealt with in the case of a mixture of qualitative and quantitative information. We introduce the use of matrix decomposition methods, of theoretically plausible parameter restrictions, and of a top-down/bottom-up approach for sign-solvability. The sign-solvability approach is applied to a dynamic policy simulation model of urban decline in The Netherlands, developed for the city of The Hague. Given the insufficiently reliable database for estimating the model in a conventional econometric way, qualitative calculus was used in order to infer conclusions regarding the direction of impacts of policy variables.     

Policies for food production and consumption in underdevelopment: The case of Mexico

This paper presents a system analysis approach for the investigation of the most effective agricultural and nutrition-intervening programs for improving the nutritional standards of the rural poor in a lesser developed country. The research is framed within a four-stage process. First, by means of observation, stylized patterns of nutritional status, food consumption, autoconsumption, and crop production are inferred. Second, based on previous anthropological case studies and statistical surveys, a theoretical model of the peasant household is specified. Third, the model is validated by comparing its empirical solution with the observed patterns. Fourth, the model is used to illustrate a method for evaluating alternative programs for improving the nutritional intakes of peasants. Programs appraised are credit for agricultural production, policies for affecting corn prices and input prices, and programs for subsidizing purchases of foods.The empirical study is about the peasant economy of Puebla in Mexico. The major foods of the typical diet and crop pattern of this area are corn (an energy food) and beans (a protein food). This diet is representative of other areas in Mexico and Central America.     

Demographic and Welfare State Predictors of Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditures: A Path Analytic Model

ABSTRACT

Out-of-pocket (OOP) payments are principal components of financing healthcare and have a significant effect on poverty in numerous developing countries. The present study seeks to ascertain the relation among demographic, welfare state, and OOP health expenditure indicators using a path analysis. National representative household budget data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for 2015 were used. To test the goodness of fit of the model, multiple fit indices were utilized. The model fit for redefined path analytic model data was good (X²/df = 70.20/9 = 7.8; RMSEA = 0.032; GFI = 1.00; AGFI = 0.99; CFI = 0.99). The results of the analysis revealed that demographic and welfare indicators are causally related to OOP health expenditures, and income was a mediating factor for this interrelationship. Designing of socially inclusive policies on the basis of the values of equity is essential to combat poverty due to OOP health expenditures in developing countries.