Institutional Deterioration in Transition Economies: Playing Follow-the-Leader During the Global Financial Crisis?

Economic transition was a systemic change of institutions from those that facilitated a planned, communist economy to those suitable for a market economy. This paper examines the state of this political and economic institutional development in 28 transition economies, focusing on the global financial crisis years of 2007–2012. According to various metrics of institutions, institutional regression has indeed occurred but has been somewhat localized in the countries of the CIS. However, property rights have regressed in some countries in Central/Southern Europe, while financial sector institutions have uniformly degraded across the entire transition space.     

The microfinance promise—can it be kept? A macro perspective

After five decades of rapid expansion of microfinance worldwide, little is known about its aggregate effects and whether the “microfinance promise” of poverty reduction holds at the macro level. Challenging questions have arisen. Here we explore the dynamic response of microfinance on economic growth, financial deepening and income inequality. Countries are grouped into three broad clusters (stable, moderate and poor) based on macro‐institutional variables. Our results show that microfinance has a significant long‐term ability to affect the broader economy. However, the impact and dynamics of microfinance differ substantially across macro‐institutional environments. It grows in weaker environments, reaches its peak in developing economies, and then gradually “dies out” in more stable economies. While there is evidence of a positive impact of microfinance at the aggregate level, the response is different depending on whether countries are poor, moderately developed or economically stable. Once countries climb up the macro‐institutional “ladder,” microfinance can take a different shape and its relationship with other macroeconomic fundamentals can change. Our results indicate that microfinance has the strongest effect when the external environment is supportive and proactive; in weak environments, microfinance cannot grow sufficiently. Therefore, more attention should be given to supporting the socioeconomic dimensions of economies.     

全球经济纵横谈

本轮全球经济金融危机和贸易逆差背后的因素在于美国。这主要是与1980年代以后美国开始推行金融自由化和2001互联网泡沫破灭后美联储的货币应对政策失误有关。其根源在于目前的国际货币体系。美国作为储备货币国为了解决国内的问题,在宏观的货币政策当中只考虑本国的利益,结果就产生了对全世界的影响。目前国际上主流理论界普遍认为政府应该控制赤字规模,以提高私营部门投资的信心,这种做法很可能既不能帮助经济走出危机,也不能控制赤字快速积累,必须实行全球的超越凯恩斯主义的复苏计划。现在主流发展经济学的理论有相当大的问题,在中国的未来发展过程中,必然还有很多矛盾和冲突出现。我们只有独立研究,进行理论创新,把问题看得更全面,才会让我们在国际经济发展中化被动为主动。     

当前世界经济形势及对我国的影响

通过回顾前一阶段全球性金融危机发生的原因和结果,重点分析美国等发达国家的国内经济形势和走向,指出当前美国存在债务风险和财政政策的困境,欧洲则深陷主权债务危机,日本地震又给世界经济造成巨大冲击,由此得出有关当前世界经济形势的3点判断：一是全球经济恢复的势头减缓;二是发达国家的国债风险进一步提高;三是全球通胀形势急剧恶化。在此背景下,中国经济面临非常严重的挑战,如外汇储备缩水、热钱流入、输入型通胀压力增大、经济增长缓慢等,需要采取多种准确有效的应对措施,保持中国经济持续稳定增长。     

Child and Family Policies in a Time of Economic Crisis

At the beginning of 2008, a number of the world’s major economies began to experience the effects of the biggest economic financial crisis in history. By the end of that year, the financial crisis was a global recession, and governments responded with changes to a suite of social and economic policies. Two broad stages of government response are identifiable: a period of stimulus followed by a move towards austerity. This study views the crisis period from the perspective of children and family policies and assesses the justification for the changes in the economic context and in the context of the recommendations for spending on children outlined in Doing Better for Children (OECD, 2009) of early investment with a focus on at‐risk children. Across Europe, with few exceptions, child and family policies have more often than not avoided direct cuts; cash benefits are most often amended (and subject to temporary reduction in coverage or amounts); and (so far) during the crisis child and family policies continue to be advanced in many European countries.     

Financial Intermediation Modernization in Countries with Transition Economy

During the modern phase of economic reforms directed at the establishment of market economy, many countries with transition economies face the challenge of solving the issue of formation and rational usage of internal sources of financing the real sector of the economy, as well as attracting considerable volume of direct foreign investment. In general, financial market imperfections hold back innovation and growth, and that public policy can complement financial markets. Therefore, the most relevant issue at the present time is the formation of attendant and complex supervision institutions, as well as an exigency of innovative economy governance as mainframe principles for further banking system elaboration and financial sector development in general. We have taken Armenia as a case study for transition economy as far as Armenia is currently in the stage of capital market development through integration into international financial markets.      

The restructuring of the U.K. financial services industry in the 1990s: a reversal of fortune?

Whereas for much of the 1980s the financial services industry was characterised by growth and expansion, the late 1980s and early 1990s was a period of redundancies and financial losses. This paper seeks to explain this reversal of fortune and the responses of the financial services industry. The restructuring of the financial System at a global level, through a process of disintermediation, and at a national level, in response to financial re-regulation, led to an intensification of competition between financial institutions and helped produce a developed countries debt crisis, founded in personal and corporate indebtedness. In the wake of this crisis, the financial services industry has been in transition. Bureaucratic labour market models have been overturned in favour of more flexible variants, while at the same time many financial services firms have engaged in the wholesale spatial reorganisation of their activities. One important consequence has been a process of ‘financial infrastructure withdrawal’, by which services and operations are withdrawn from certain social groups and certain localities. This process, which revolves around a rubric of risk reduction and a ‘flight to quality’, has introduced an element of exclusion and closure to the operation of financial Systems within developed countries. In this sense, the reaction of the financial services industry to the developed countries debt crisis mirrors that which followed the less developed countries debt crisis of the early 1980s; that is, abandonment and retreat to a more affluent client base. As was the case during the less developed countries debt crisis, the current process of financial infrastructure withdrawal has serious social and economic implications for those social groups and localities abandoned by the financial community.     

试论海湾六国货币统一的现实意义

目前，安全问题和经济模式单一问题直接威胁到了海湾六国的社会稳定和经济发展，是六国政府所面临的首要难题。从经济一体化的角度看，货币统一将扩大海湾六国对世界经济的影响，提升其在国际事务中的地位，对海湾六国解决安全问题有重大影响和积极作用。同时，海湾六国统一货币所带来的经济效应也将促进海湾六国经济多元化发展。     

后金融危机时代,中国金融机构“走出去”战略

后金融危机时代为中国金融机构"走出去"提供了难得的历史发展机遇。中国金融机构"走出去"不能盲目照搬发达国家的机制模式,必须根据我国的国情,在梳理和分析自身特点和约束条件,并在与发达国家进行综合比较的基础上,最终选择一种最适合自身的机制模式。中国金融机构应紧紧跟踪全球经济金融发展的新动向,在海外业务发展过程中力争在新金融领域实现突破。     

全球化背景下伊斯兰金融的实践与挑战

伊斯兰银行诞生于20世纪五十年代末。目前,全球已有近80个国家开办了伊斯兰银行及相关业务,伊斯兰金融体系已颇具规模,欧美国家也相继推出了打造全球伊斯兰金融中心的战略规划,以伊斯兰银行为主体的伊斯兰金融呈现出旺盛的生命力。与此同时,由于西方经济体系在全球经济中极具威权性,占据了全球经济发展的主导地位,伊斯兰金融体系在与西方经济体系的碰撞中,也面临着一系列挑战。因此,如何实现与异质经济系统的成功衔接就显得尤为重要。     

改革仍是中国中长期发展的推动力

从这次国际金融危机的外部冲击到现在发展阶段变化的内部需求来看,我国发展模式有着巨大的历史贡献,但同时也存在着严重的缺陷。内外环境变化,使这个曾经成功的经济增长模式在新阶段具有一定的不可持续性。我国经济对外部市场的高度依赖和内需不足的矛盾,仍然制约着中国经济的可持续发展。在深化改革中打破制约内需扩大的制度障碍,建立扩大内需的长效机制,成为转变发展方式的紧迫任务。     

低碳发展是全球一种新趋势

在全球气候变暖危机越来越为世人所认识,国际社会应对气候安全问题的共同意愿愈来愈强烈的今天,我们正在没有选择地走向＂低碳发展＂,低碳已经成为全球经济社会发展的一种新趋势,尤其发达国家在确定低碳发展战略、完善低碳法律框架、加强低碳制度建设、推行低碳产业结构、实行低碳优惠政策、利用低碳市场机制、加大低碳财政投入、发展低碳循环经济、依靠低碳科技创新、形成低碳生活型态等方面积累了许多经验,对我们实现低碳发展、维护气候安全这一人类社会的最终共同愿景有一定借鉴意义。     

The crisis of waged work and the option of a universal basic income grant for South Africa

ABSTRACT

Waged work is widely seen as a sufficient basis for meeting basic needs, achieving social inclusion and realizing essential social rights. Yet waged work that provides a livable income on reasonably secure terms is rare in ‘developing’ economies and increasingly scarce in ‘developed’ economies. This trend is likely to persist and worsen as the disruptive impacts of economic volatility and climate change intensify and labour market restructuring continues. Aggravating the impact is the diminishing access to livelihood options outside the wage economy. South Africa is an extreme example of this trend, with a very large proportion of the working age population superfluous to the formal economy, high levels of poverty and severe inequality. This paper describes this crisis at the global level and then specifically in South Africa, before considering the option of a universal basic income grant (UBIG). It examines the critiques and the potential merits and risks of such an intervention. To realize its transformative potential, a UBIG would have to be deployed as part of a broad transformation strategy that is led by an active state and driven by a mobilized civil society.     

未来中国经济:如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”

在全球经济危机影响下,中国经济面临外部条件恶化、国内问题凸显的考验,有关中国经济高速发展可持续性的争议引人关注。学术界对于"中等收入陷阱"的研究和分析表明,无论命题真伪,确实在一部分发展中国家的经济发展过程中,出现了"中等收入陷阱"的现象和事实。经济发展不仅仅是突破"贫困陷阱"和"人口陷阱"的问题,到一定阶段还会面临"中等收入陷阱"的挑战。中国未来5~10年是一个非常关键的发展时期,关系到是否可以顺利地跨越"中等收入陷阱",进入高收入国家行列。中国必须通过制度创新,彻底转变经济发展方式,这才是未来成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的战略选择和必由之路。     

Out of the shadows: Classifying economies by the extent and nature of employment in the informal economy

Given the prevalence of informality, this article proposes a typology for classifying countries by the extent and nature of employment in the informal economy, rather than by the composition of their formal economies. The author analyses ILO data on employment in the informal economy in 36 developing countries, and shows that there is a significant correlation between cross‐national variations in the degree and intensity of informalization and cross‐national variations in social and economic indicators such as levels of GNP per capita, corruption, poverty, taxation and social contributions. The article concludes by discussing implications for theory and policy.     

The Millennium Development Goals: Key Current Issues and Challenges

The current global financial and economic crisis has severely impaired social and economic progress throughout the world. Does this mean the end of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)? This article addresses this question, considering selected theoretical and strategic issues, including new and incremental approaches, the role of governmental leadership and operational integrity and the underlying question of appropriate development paradigms. It concludes that scaling‐up of current MDG efforts is imperative, as is the adoption of new and incremental approaches.     

当前国内外经济全局变化及未来趋势展望

当前国际经济金融形势极为复杂。金融危机使全球的治理结构面临重大调整,各国转型发展的压力增大,对市场、资源、标准的竞争更加激烈。同时,我国逐步进入国际体系的核心部位,机遇增大,但挑战更大。2011年,中国经济可归纳为＂五大目标实现＂和＂三大风险缓解＂。2012年,中国宏观金融政策总体上稳中求进。同时,通过分析中国经济内外推动因素,对今后10年中国宏观经济发展作出趋势预判。     

在国家与市场之间寻找中国社会政策改革的逻辑——“社会发展与社会政策:国际经验与中国改革”国际学术研讨会评述

综观东亚新兴经济体和欧美发达国家在社会政策领域的路径变迁,可以得出"两个转型"的基本结论,即东亚新兴经济体从单一追求经济增长逐渐向追求经济与社会平衡发展转型;欧美发达国家从倚重国家福利向倚重社会投资与国家福利平衡发展转型。这两个处于不同社会发展阶段的转型,对中国当前的社会发展和社会政策改革都有着非常重要的启示意义。中国作为具有后发优势的全球最有活力的新兴经济体,当前既需要解决经济增长与社会发展之间的失衡问题,也需要未雨绸缪,避免陷入欧美国家福利陷阱而背上沉重的财政包袱。因此,在国家与市场之间找到一条最具效率性和合理性的社会发展路径,才是符合当前中国社会政策改革的逻辑。     

Uneven and combined development and sub-imperialism: the internationalization of Brazilian capital

This paper examines the political-economic outgrowth of Brazilian capitalism in the global south after the outset of the global financial crisis. In analysing the public-sector finance policy of the Workers’ Party (PT) during the crisis, I argue that a structuration of investment was established. Utilizing theoretical premises of uneven and combined development and sub-imperialism, this paper traces the motions of the industrial financing processes that perpetuate Brazilian capitalism outside of the boundaries of the nation-state to shed light on the relationship between ‘emergent’ economies, their state structures, and the developing world. I argue that such structures represent a policy to accelerate capital accumulation abroad.