Risk attitudes and risky behavior

In economic theory, risk aversion is a characteristic of the typical utility function of money. Observations of how people deal with risks in real life have cast some doubts on the prevalence of risk aversion. People buy insurance, but they also gamble and take investment risks. Many of the conclusions in the discussions of utility derive from experiments employing some kind of lottery choices. While the experiments have given interesting ideas for theory, there has been little testing of the extent to which the obtained measures of risk attitudes correlate with actual behavior. Data from the VSB panel were used to answer three questions: (1) Can hypothetical risky choice questions be meaningfully answered by ordinary survey respondents? (2) What are the relationships between different measures of risk attitudes and actual portfolio choices of risky assets? (3) What is the relationship between risk attitude and playing in lotteries, lotto, etc.?     

Money matters: An exploratory study of the socio-cultural context of consumption, saving, and investment patterns

This study focuses on 36 professional South Asian (Indian) families in a metropolitan city in Canada in order to understand motives for financial behavior. In accordance with the Hindu world view, Indians view wealth acquisition as necessary for the natural progression of an individual's life and take a long view of time when it comes to investment decisions. Their primary purpose is to invest money in order to provide for their children's education. Their cultural roots allow them to take a long-term view and makes them more risk tolerant. Although these families take economic criteria into account, such criteria alone do not fully explain their consumption, saving, and investment patterns. It would appear that their need for saving determines their consumption, not the other way around. To understand their financial behavior, one has to identify the cultural worlds in which Indians live. The study highlights the importance of understanding the socio-cultural context of decisions that may appear to be purely economic decisions at first sight.     

Effects of Marriage and Children on Financial Risk Tolerance: A Synthesis of Family Development and Prospect Theory

Family development and prospect theory were used as a framework to predict variability in individuals' subjective financial risk tolerance within distinct family structures. Gender, age, and income were expected to interact with the main effects of family structure (marital status and children). Theory-generated hypotheses were examined in Study 1 (data from university housing respondents, n = 76) and Study 2 (the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances, n = 4,305). One family structure main effect (child presence) was significant for investment risk tolerance in both studies. Family structure interactions (marital status × age and child × income) were significant for employment risk (Study 1), and child × age was significant for investment risk in Study 2.     

Financial management, coping and debt in households under financial strain

This study looks at how households cope financially with a budget under a certain financial strain (after the birth of a new baby), and particularly examines their financial management practices and debting behaviour. Other factors associated with debt status caused by financial strain — particularly psychological variables — are also examined. A number of indexes were calculated from questionnaire data and used to measure these variables. The results showed that being in debt was significantly associated with feelings of coping less well and with better financial management. Better coping was also significantly associated with being more ‘forwardlooking’ and having a more negative attitude towards debt. Better financial strategies were significantly associated with being less materialistic and having a more stable budget. The results confirm previous findings that psychological and behavioural variables have a considerable impact on being in or keeping out of debt, but also suggest that perceived poor coping and being in debt during a period of particular financial strain may actually lead to an improvement in financial management.     

Financial Risk Attitude and Behavior: Do Planners Help Increase Consistency?

This study is the first to evaluate the effect of sources of information on households’ consistency between their risk attitude when making savings and investment decisions and risk behavior displayed when they do save and invest. As the responsibility is being shifted to individuals to save for their own financial future, it is important that individuals and households save and invest in a manner that is consistent with their financial risk tolerance. Financial planners were found to provide significant value to households on the consistency of their financial risk attitude and behavior. The implications of this work are far-reaching in the financial planning arena.     

Gender differences in financial risk tolerance

The purpose of this research is to explore gender differences in financial risk tolerance using a large, nationally representative dataset, the Survey of Consumer Finances. The impact of the explanatory variables in the model is allowed to differ between men and women to decompose gender differences in financial risk tolerance. The results indicate that gender differences in financial risk tolerance are explained by gender differences in the individual determinants of financial risk tolerance, and that the disparity does not result from gender in and of itself. The individual variables that moderate the relationship between gender and high risk tolerance are income uncertainty and net worth, with income uncertainty moderating the relationship between gender and some risk tolerance. Financial fiduciaries should understand the differences in income uncertainty and net worth between men and women and how those differences relate to risk tolerance.     

Subjective measures of risk aversion, fixed costs, and portfolio choice

The paper investigates risk preferences among different types of individuals. We use several different measures of risk preferences, including questions on choices between uncertain income streams suggested by Barsky, Juster, Kimball, and Shapiro (1997) and a number of ad hoc measures. As in [Barsky et al., 1997] and [Arrondel and Calvo-Pardo, 2002], we first analyze individual variation in the risk aversion measures and explain them by background characteristics (both “objective” characteristics and other subjective measures of risk preference). Next we incorporate the measured risk preferences into a household portfolio allocation model, which explains portfolio shares, while accounting for incomplete portfolios and fixed costs. Our results show that a measure based on factor analysis of answers to a number of simple risk preference questions has the most explanatory power. The Barsky et al. (1997) measure has less explanatory power than this “a-theoretical” measure, suggesting that sophisticated measures based on economic theory may exceed the financial capability of respondents. Fixed costs turn out to provide an economically and statistically highly significant explanation for incomplete portfolios.     

On the usefulness of government spending in the EU area

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on private consumption and investment in the European Union (EU). A certain consensus has been reached on the expansionary Keynesian effects of fiscal impulses on the economic activity. However, the existing empirical literature has concentrated on few countries, mostly outside the EU. We check the validity of this result for the EU area using annual data and a panel vector auto-regression approach, with particular attention being paid to robustness across alternative identification assumptions based on Cholesky orderings. Our results show that shocks to public spending positively affect private consumption and investment. According to our baseline estimate, a 1% increase in public current expenditure produces a 0.24% impact rise in private consumption, and a 0.41% impact rise in private investment. The effects are substantial, and die out slowly in the case of private consumption (the cumulative impact amounts to +0.56% after 3 years), but much faster in the case of private investment. A further disaggregation between wage and non-wage components reveals that public salaries have a relatively stronger stimulating role. This is not due to the different weights on GDP of the two components, which have comparable values in our sample.     

Discourses of savings

Katona (1975) established the importance of social perception variables in mediating the impact of economic conditions on financial decision making. There has been a tradition of work in economic psychology that has elaborated on this early work. However, clearly the economic and social circumstances for the contemporary consumer are vastly different to those studied by Katona. The present study uses a qualitative analysis of focus group material to investigate lay people's understanding of savings. Interpretation of extracts from the focus groups suggests a complex understanding of the relation between saving and social and economic change. There was a concern with uncertainty, regulation and the moral economy. The findings were interpreted in the light of theories of the risk society.     

PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND RISK ATTITUDES: AN EXPERIMENT

Using financial incentives, we study how portfolio choice (how much to invest in a risky asset) depends on three well-known behavioral phenomena: ambiguity aversion, the illusion of control, and myopic loss aversion. We find evidence that these phenomena are present and test how the level of investment is affected by these motivations; at the same time, we investigate whether participants are willing to explicitly pay a small sum of money to indulge preferences for less ambiguity, more control, or more frequent feedback/opportunities to choose the investment level. First, the observed preference for "control" did not affect investment behavior and in fact disappeared when participants were asked to actually pay to gain more control. Second, while people were indeed willing to pay for less ambiguity, the level of ambiguity did not influence investment levels. Finally, participants were willing to pay to have more frequent feedback opportunities to change their portfolio, even though prior research has shown that people invest less in risky assets (and earn less) in this case . ( JEL B49, C91, D81, G11, G19)     

Macroeconomic Conditions and Australian Financial Risk Attitudes, 2001–2010

This paper employed panel data from the 2001–2010 waves of the Household, Income, and Labor Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey to investigate the financial risk attitudes of 10,000 individuals across 6,839 households. Ordered logit models including individual and household random effects tested for changes in risk tolerance while focusing on the impact of transitory macroeconomic conditions and controlling for individual demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We found Australians generally reduced their tolerance for risk over time, though higher levels of education, wealth, good health, and being self-employed indicated the increased likelihood of risk tolerance. We also found macroeconomic conditions were jointly significant in determining financial risk attitudes. However, the innate demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals were more important at the margin.     

Donating-selling tradeoffs and the influence of leaders in the environmental goods game

Contributions to environmental goods are motivated by both pecuniary incentives and environmental consciousness. Public policy often uses financial incentives to encourage contributions. However, individuals often donate their time or money to the environmental cause without such incentives. The purpose of this paper is: (a) to examine the relationship between “donating” (without monetary incentives) and “selling” behavior (motivated by monetary incentives) of individuals in the context of environmental protection and (b) to analyze the influence of a leader on individual contributions to the environmental good. The major results are: (1) there is a tradeoff/substitution between donating and selling for a given level of incentives; (2) donating is much less sensitive to changes in monetary incentives and, furthermore, there is no evidence that the increase in financial incentives to sell will crowd out donations; (3) the changes in contributions by leaders have a significant impact on followers’ behavior.     

An exploratory analysis of composite choices: Weighing rationality versus irrationality

Humans are engineered neurologically to make rational and irrational choices. This paper introduces a new paradigm for decision making – a composite choice model – in which economic agents are constantly weighing rationality versus irrationality when encountering options. In an exploratory, deterministic, two-period model, an assumption of a two-way cross-embedment (i.e., a two-way interaction between the rational and irrational components) results in a paradoxical phenomenon, an outcome of either tending toward bliss or abyss at the end of the first period. This implies, for instance, a psychological struggle between two selves within the mind. The paradigm proposed is compared to the dual-process theories recently developed by the cognitive sciences. Future research will explore implications for public policy design and implementation.     

The significance of financial self-efficacy in explaining women’s personal finance behaviour

Much policy attention has been placed on enhancing individuals’ financial knowledge and literacy, chiefly through financial education programs. However, managing one’s personal finances takes more than financial knowledge and literacy: an individual also needs a sense of self-assuredness, or ‘self-belief’, in their own capabilities. This personal attribute is known within the psychology literature as ‘self-efficacy’. This paper examines the significance of an individual’s financial self-efficacy in explaining their personal finance behaviour, through the application of a psychometric instrument. Using a 2013 survey of Australian women, financial self-efficacy emerges as one of the strongest predictors of the type and number of financial products that a woman holds. Specifically, our analysis reveals that women with higher financial self-efficacy – that is, with greater self-assuredness in their financial management capacities – are more likely to hold investment and savings products, and less likely to hold debt-related products. Even alongside other important factors – such as education, financial risk preferences, age and household income – the explanatory power of financial self-efficacy is found to be significant at the 1% critical level. Moreover, the significance of financial self-efficacy is independently identified from that of financial literacy factors, which bears important implications for the development of policies aiming to improve financial outcomes.     

Out-of-pocket vs. out-of-investment in financial advisory fees: Evidence from the lab

The implications of the method of payment to financial advisors on the behavior of individuals are of interest to economists and regulators around the globe. This paper uses an experimental approach to compare two common alternative forms of payment. The first is “out-of-pocket” (an upfront payment from a checking account), and the second is “out-of-investment” (a deferred payment from an investment portfolio account). We document that for the same financial advice, the subjects in the first treatment were willing to pay on average 25 per cent less than the subjects in the second treatment – payment following an investment outcome knowledge, where the payment was framed in terms of gains. We introduce an additional out-of-pocket payment structure where the actual payment is deferred until after the subject discovers the outcome of the investment. Thus, the design can be broken down into two distinct possible effects, an out-of-pocket vs. out-of-investment framing effect and a pre-outcome vs. post-outcome timing effect. We find that the timing effect is the key element: across out-of-pocket payment structures, the subjects were willing to pay significantly less in the pre-outcome treatment than their counterparts were in the post-outcome treatment. Our results highlight the difference between post-service and pre-service payments in a broader context, and provide an explanation for why allowing late payment, after the service has been performed and its outcome revealed, may increase the ex-ante willingness to pay for the service.     

Child and Family Policies in a Time of Economic Crisis

At the beginning of 2008, a number of the world’s major economies began to experience the effects of the biggest economic financial crisis in history. By the end of that year, the financial crisis was a global recession, and governments responded with changes to a suite of social and economic policies. Two broad stages of government response are identifiable: a period of stimulus followed by a move towards austerity. This study views the crisis period from the perspective of children and family policies and assesses the justification for the changes in the economic context and in the context of the recommendations for spending on children outlined in Doing Better for Children (OECD, 2009) of early investment with a focus on at‐risk children. Across Europe, with few exceptions, child and family policies have more often than not avoided direct cuts; cash benefits are most often amended (and subject to temporary reduction in coverage or amounts); and (so far) during the crisis child and family policies continue to be advanced in many European countries.     

ESTIMATION AND IMPACT OF GENDER DIFFERENCES IN RISK TOLERANCE

This paper provides numerical estimates of the distributions of risk tolerance for men and women. A simple model of individual portfolio choice is calibrated to data on Individual Retirement Accounts from the Health and Retirement Study to obtain the estimates. Results show that women tend to be less risk-tolerant than men. The estimates are then used to measure the impact of risk tolerance on wealth accumulation. Simulations show that the difference in risk tolerance can account for around 10% of the gender difference in accumulated wealth. ( JEL J16, G11, D81)     

UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE ON FINANCIAL INVESTMENTS: THE ROLE OF BACKGROUND RISK SHARING

We investigate how changes in marital status affect financial investments and how these effects vary with background risk. We use detailed register‐based panel data and difference‐in‐differences estimators to benchmark common unobserved influences on financial investments. Women increase the fraction of wealth invested in stocks after marriage and decrease it after divorce, whereas men show the opposite behavior. Households whose joint labor income risk is reduced more by marriage have a higher increase in their exposure to risky assets in marriage. Thus income risk sharing in the household is important for financial risk taking and investment responses to marital transitions. (JEL G11, J12, J16, D14)     

Estimating the Probability of Default with Applications in Provisioning the Portfolio of Clients of a Credit Institution

In this paper we study the implications of estimating the expected probabilities of default (PDs), for the firms that are already part of a credit portfolio of a bank (or in general, of a credit institution), on the provisioning process of that portfolio. An applied example of an estimation of PDs is conducted on a representative sample of companies from a real portfolio of an important bank in Romania (among top five banks as size). With respect to what is recommended by the standard practice and central bank authorities, our provisioning application (based on the logistic estimation of PDs) results in a higher risk aversion for those credit classes of superior financial reliability, respectively leads to a risk underestimation for the companies in the credit classes with low levels of reliability. Besides, the results of our econometric exercise of estimating PDs reveal the importance of the solvency as predictor of the default probability, as well as the negative effect of the services sector, in the context of the financial and economic Romanian crisis of the year 2008.