Intermediate fertility variables and marital fertility rates

Summary Using relatively simple mathematical techniques, an analysis is made of a comprehensive reproductive model that describes the relationships between a set of intermediate fertility variables and the marital fertility rate. Two types of intermediate fertility variables are distinguished: (1) biological parameters and (2) control variables. A homogeneous model is outlined first. Next, this version is extended to include heterogeneity with respect to fecundability and coital rates. Tests of the model with data from two historical populations (i.e. Crulai, 1674-1742, and Tourouvre au Perche, 1665-1765) demonstrate that the model is, indeed, consistent with observed reproductive behaviour in actual populations.     

Relative income and fertility

The present study examines the relationship between relative income (i.e., actual income in relation to the expected income of one’s socioeconomic group) and fertility, using data collected by the 1967-1968Canadian Family Growth Study (Balakrishnan et al., 1975). We broaden the tests of relative income beyond cumulative fertility to spacing behavior and then examine some of the assumptions included in the relative income model of fertility. Results of the tests, in brief, are as follows: (a) Relative income is found to be more closely related to spacing than to cumulative fertility; and (b) the relationship between relative income and fertility is strongest among those couples who plan their life ahead and have a high level of education and occupation, and when temporal alignment is brought between the measures of relative income and fertility. For the relative income model to receive confirmation, it was specified that the following hypotheses must be confirmed: (a) that fertility behavior would vary positively with relative income but the fertility norm would show no relationship with relative income; and (b) that consumption norms and behavior would show no relationship with relative income. The outcome of these tests are in the expected direction, giving support to the relative income model. In addition, there is some evidence of predictive capability of the relative income model for correlative behavior.     

Economic development and fertility

Two schools of theorists have been concerned with the effect of economic development on fertility. One school has contended that economic development has an inhibiting effect on fertility. The demographic transition which has occurred among the non-developed countries confirms their viewpoint. Another school of thought, including in its members Thomas Malthus, has believed that economic development promoted fertility. Much empirical evidence may also be brought to bear to support this viewpoint.The present paper attempts to reconcile these viewpoints. It is hypothesized that the direct effect of economic development is to increase fertility. However, various factors which usually accompany the process of economic development serve to reduce fertility. These include an increase in the level of education and a reduction in infant and childhood mortality. Making use of data for 41 nations pertaining to the decade of the 1950's, it is found that fertility is directly associated with per capita net national product when controls for other relevant variables are in8tituted. On the other hand, per capita newspaper circulation is inversely related to fertility, and infant mortality is directly related.If the hypothesis advanced in this paper is correct, relatively large governmental expenditures on health and education will enhance the reduction in fertility obtainable from an increase in national economic level alone.     

A comparison between current Indian fertility and late nineteenth-century Swedish and Finnish fertility

Abstract The paper aims to probe causes of the current high level of the crude birth rate in India. This is accomplished by comparing the current Indian fertility level with that of Sweden and Finland during the last quarter of the nineteenth century. By utilizing marital distribution, age distribution and age-specific marital fertility rates of the three countries, the basic demographic causes of high fertility in India can be established. In the second part, the factors causing age-specific marital fertility rates in India to be lower than nineteenth-century Sweden and Finland are discussed. This is done by comparing the levels of the followingsix variables, operating within marriage, between Indian and Scandinavian cultures: (1) Abstinence - voluntary and involuntary, (2) Frequency of coitus, (3) Incidence of sterility - primary and secondary, (4) Contraception and sterilization, (5) Incidence of foetal mortality and (6) Incidence of induced abortions.     

Uncertain survival and time discounting: intertemporal consumption plans for family trusts

We derive expressions for optimal consumption for family trusts with random wealth and uncertain survival. Using UK birth statistics and the theory of branching processes, we compute size and survival probabilities for single- and multiple-branch families. Survival for a single-branch family is approximated by a Pareto distribution and consumption policies exhibit decreasing discount rates, but multiple-branch families use non-monotonic discount rates. When trust distributions depend on the number of beneficiaries rather than the survival of the whole family unit, spending paths depend on expected membership and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. We report examples of consumption paths for a range of family trusts with constant relative risk aversion preferences.     

Welfare reform and immigrant fertility

Immigration policy is at the forefront of US policy discussions, and the use of welfare benefits by immigrants has been hotly debated. In 1996, Congress enacted welfare reform legislation, which imposed strict restrictions on welfare eligibility for noncitizens. However, a number of states restored access to welfare benefits to immigrants that had been cut out in the federal welfare reform law. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we examine whether immigrant women adjusted their childbearing in response to changes in the generosity of welfare benefits at the state-level. We find that noncitizen women reduced their fertility in response to cutbacks imposed by the legislation. Our findings, which prove robust to a number of identification and robustness checks, underscore how immigrants respond to state-level policies and provide insight into the potential impacts of comprehensive immigration reform, particularly the components related to the path to citizenship and access to public benefits.     

Evolution of fertility and mortality

Historical and current fertility trends in both Quebec and Canada as a whole are surveyed. While fertility among French Canadians was higher than that in neighboring provinces until the mid-20th century, in 1968 Quebec's crude birthrate was the lowest in Canada, and in 1972 it was 13.8 vs. 15.9 (the national birthrate). This reversal is explained in terms of the demographic transition theory, the declining influence of organized religion, and new opportunities for social mobility for minority groups. The birthrate throughout Canada is also declining. Although recent cohort studies are incomplete because women have not yet finished their reproductive years, it appears that completed family size will be lower than at any time in Canadian history. The period total fertility rate indicates an average family size of 1.8 children in 1976, but it is unclear whether this represents an actual reduction in family size or the postponement of childbearing. The sharpest fertility decline has been among women aged 35-49, but peak fertility rates have shifted from the 20-24 age group to those aged 25-29. Fertility is negatively related to education, and the lowest fertility is found among the intermediate income groups. Since the 1969 lifting of the ban on contraceptive sales and advertising, family planning activities have been stepped up. Also removed was the total ban on abortion. In 1975 there were 14.9 therapeutic abortions per 100 live births, but it has been charged that abortion standards are being applied inequitably from hospital to hospital.     

Rural electrification and fertility change

This article addresses the possible linkage between the spread of electrification in rural areas and subsequent declines in human fertility. Evidence from nine studies in six countries is reviewed and compared. The conclusion from this review is that there is, in fact, some link and that the higher the level of rural electrification the higher is contraceptive prevalence and the lower is the level of fertility. This link appears puzzling at first glance, but the article proposes a conceptual and theoretical framework for interpreting these results and fitting them into accepted theories of fertility. Finally, some important policy implications are discussed and future directions for research indicated.This paper was prepared for a workshop on The Relationship between Rural Electrification and Fertility Decline sponsored by the National Rural Electrical Cooperatives Association and the Population Issues Research Center of Pennsylvania State University. The workshop was held in Washington, D.C. on November 15, 1984. (Copies of a summary of the proceedings of the workshop can be obtained from Mr. Philip P. Costas, International Programs Division, National Rural Electrical Cooperatives Association, 1800 Massachusetts Avenue N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, U.S.A.) The authors received helpful comments on the paper from Richard Bilsborrow, Gretchen Cornwell, Gordon DeJong, Ronald Freedman, and Ozzie Simmons as well as many other participants in the workshop.     

Variety expansion and fertility rates

To investigate how fertility rates interrelate with the modern economy, we construct a simple model in which variety expansion of consumption goods reduces fertility rates. In our model, variety expansion reduces the relative price of a composite of differentiated goods compared to child-rearing costs. Thus, parents raise the expenditure share for differentiated goods and lower the number of children. We show that this model can be applied to a growth model in which economic growth progresses with variety expansion of consumption goods and fertility rates decrease with economic growth. Thus, we show a new mechanism for fertility decline, and this mechanism can be applied to a growth model.     

Female working roles and fertility

Using survey data gathered in Turkey in 1963, the relationship between female employment status and fertility is examined. Controlling for urban-rural residence, education, and exposure to conception within marriage, no differences in fertility by labor force status appear. Although there is a slightly greater tendency for employed than for non-employed women to hold attitudes more favorable to small families and family size limitation, the observed differences are slight and not significant statistically. A typology is constructed wherein the nature and causal direction of any existing relationship between female employment and fertility are predicted, based on the availability of birth control technology and the presence or absence of conflict between the roles of mother and worker.     

Migration and fertility in Ticino

Summary Migration in the Swiss canton of Ticino is one example of the wide variety of demographic systems that existed in pre-industrial Europe. The continuous movement of men was a consequence of economic, social and geographic conditions which restricted the demand for labour. Seasonal migration and overseas migration were both sex and age selective. They resulted in an imbalance of the sex ratio and a remarkably low female nuptiality. They also reduced fertility within marriage by separating husbands and wives during their childbearing years. The effect of long, medium and short-term migration on fertility can be isolated from census and vital registration sources.     

Fertility desires and fertility outcomes

Over the last 30 years Australian fertility rates have fallen more than could have been predicted from changes in the numbers of children desired by women when they first married. This paper charts changes in desired and completed fertility in Australia, matches originally desired fertility with that ultimately achieved and explores some factors which may affect the relation between fertility desires and fertility outcomes.     

The influence of first generation fertility and economic status on second generation fertility

This paper examines the impact of parental economic status and family size on the actual and expected fertility of adult children using longitudinal data from two generations of families participating in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. There was a modest positive relationship between first generation family size and second generation fertility. More importantly, the ideal family size of the parental family was more closely related to fertility behavior and plans in the second generation than was actual parental family size. In addition, the data revealed the hypothesized negative correlation between parental financial status and second generation fertility behavior and plans. Several mechanisms which could produce the correlation between parental characteristics and the fertility of their children are explored.The analysis reported in this paper was supported by Contract NO1-HD-42856 from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development, Center for Population Research. Dr. Thornton is affiliated with the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Requests for reprints should be directed to him.     

Explaining fertility transitions

In this essay. I suggest that the crisis in our understanding of fertility transitions is more apparent than real. Although most existing theories of fertility transition have been partially or wholly discredited, this reflects a tendency to assume that all fertility transitions share one or two causes, to ignore mortality decline as a precondition for fertility decline, to assume that pretransitional fertility is wholly governed by social constraints rather than by individual decision-making. and to test ideas on a decadal time scale. I end the essay by suggesting a perceptual. interactive approach to explaining fertility transitions that is closely allied to existing theories but focuses on conditions that lead couples to switch from postnatal to prenatal controls on family size.     

Measuring fertility norms

We argue that social norms must be measured at the group level of analysis, allow for a range of acceptable behaviors, and be linked to the individual level of analysis to explain social behavior. From a survey of young adults in Wisconsin (1973), we generated measures of family size norms from sibship experience and friends' expected family size. These measures satisfied our primary criterion for a social norm: Those with non-normative family size desires tended to shift expectations toward the norm. The analyses demonstrate the difficulty of estimating normative effects when by its very definition a norm is expected to restrict variation in human behavior.Revision of a paper presented at the annual meetings of the American Sociological Association, New York, New York, August 30–September 3, 1986. This research was supported by Grant 1-R01-HD-17190 and by Center Grant HD05876 from the Center for Population Research, NICHHD. Paula Goldman's work was supported by Training Grant 5732HD07014 from the same source.     

Measuring fertility demand

We propose a multidimensional conceptualization of fertility demand and evaluate potential measures of each dimension, using data from a telephone survey of Wisconsin residents age 18-34. Most of the measures met tests for interval-level measurement; all produced high estimates of test-retest reliability. We found support for only two dimensions of demand, intensity and certainty; potential measures of centrality had relatively low associations with any of the latent dimensions. Demand certainty improved prediction of fertility expectations beyond a trichotomous (yes, no, don’t know) measure, but demand intensity did not. We found mixed evidence for the conceptualization of fertility demand as a single continuum on which desire to avoid pregnancy is the opposite of desire to have a child.