技术创新速度对新技术购买行为的影响--两代未来创新的情况

通过引入第二代未来创新更好地实现了将技术创新的购买看作一系列实物期权的思想.讨论了实物期权价值以及触发现有创新购买、跨越或升级到未来创新的状态临界值的求解方法,在假定现有创新和第一代未来创新均出现情况下给出了购买时机的概率模型.数字释例表明,虽然技术创新速度对购买行为的影响在仅有一代未来创新情况下呈现明显的非单调特征,但对第二代未来创新的预期将显著削弱甚至消除创新速度影响中的非单调特征,从而为直观分析特别是实证结果提供了更好的理论支持.     

新兴技术创新速度分析——一种实物期权方法

在创新采纳成本随时间下降的情况下,采用实物期权方法通过采纳企业投资决策对创新提供方的期望净收益的影响, 研究在快速变化的环境下最优的新兴技术创新速度.假设技术进步状态服从泊松过程,分析了创新采纳企业的3种投资策略.进一步通过比较创新提供方的期望净收益值的变化得到了最优的创新速度.最后,通过数字释例分析了几个重要参数的变化对创新提供企业期望净收益的影响.     

基于技术创新投资决策的实物期权运用

将实物期权的价值评估方式运用到企业技术创新的投资决策中,充分考虑不确定性因素,并建立决策原则,一方面扩展了实物期权在技术创新项目评估价值中的应用,另一方面解决了企业是进行自主技术创新还是外购技术的难题。     

资源松弛视角下企业技术创新策略选择的实物期权模型

组织资源对企业的创新行为具有重要作用.本文通过建立数学模型,采用实物期权分析方法,分析了松弛资源与技术创新策略选择之间的关系.分析结果表明:发掘、利用的松弛资源达到某一临界点时,能对选择基于研发的自主创新策略产生足够的激励;在基于技术引进的技术创新策略越来越难以实现的情况下,正确辨识、发掘、利用松弛资源对于提高组织的自主创新能力和绩效,显得格外重要.     

技术创新战略投资的实物期权方法综述

实物期权方法比传统的折现现金流法(DCF) 更适合用来分析不确定环境下的投资决策 问题,但仅凭实物期权方法不能对不完全竞争环境下的企业战略投资问题进行准确分析和估 价. 根据是否考虑不完全竞争环境下企业投资决策间的战略互动关系,实物期权方法被分为一 般实物期权方法和战略实物期权方法. 侧重于战略实物期权方法,对企业技术创新投资的实物 期权理论模型及方法进行综述,并指出了对这类问题进一步研究的方向.     

基于实物期权理论的矿产资源最优投资策略模型

矿产资源投资周期长、数额大、且不确定性高,应用传统的净现值方法来评估矿产资源投资价值具有很大的局限性。本文运用实物期权理论,通过建立矿产资源最优投资的策略模型,讨论了在矿产品价格以及汇率存在不确定性的情况下,如何对海外矿产资源价值进行评估的问题,并以国内某海外矿产资源项目为例,验证了模型的有效性。研究结果表明,相对于传统的净现值法,实物期权方法可以更好地考虑未来的不确定性对矿产资源项目估值的影响;汇率风险是对海外矿产资源投资的影响很大;矿产资源丰度差异对矿产资源价值的影响很大。     

高新技术产业化的实物期权分析

在分析高新技术产业化投资决策时,本文考虑了当前技术存在技术升级换代或技术创新的可能,把技术升级换代或技术创新的机会理解为当前投资机会的嵌入期权、当前投资机会则类似于美式复合买入期权,把技术创新的经济效应分为成本节约效应和需求拉动效应,运用实物期权的评估方法,分析了产业化投资的机会价值或期权价值,得到了最优投资决策的临界值;最后分析了市场不确定和技术不确定及技术创新的经济效果对技术产业化的影响.     

技术创新激励的经济学和金融学逻辑

本文从经济学的角度分析认为,技术创新所带来的消费者剩余的增加是技术创新发展的动力;从金融学的角度出发,在分析了用DCF方式进行创新投资分析的不足后,提出了知识资本评估和现实期权评估的方法,对技术创新所带来的未来成长机会的价值进行评价,指出对期权收益的预期构成了创新激励.作者同时也论述了期权价值评估的局限性和陷阱,以及两种评估方法对企业核心能力建设的意义.     

公平偏好和销售努力下供应链期权契约协调

考虑公平中性的供应商将报童类商品售给公平偏好的零售商,商品需求随机且受销售努力影响。刻画了期权契约下零售商关于实物和期权商品采购及销售努力的联合策略,设计了协调供应链的期权契约和促销成本分担机制。研究表明：在确保零售商参与供应链下,无论契约参数如何设计,零售商要么仅采购实物商品,要么同时购买实物商品和期权;且仅当设计的契约能诱导零售商购买期权时,供应链的协调才可能实现。探讨了公平偏好对零售商策略和协调契约的影响,结果表明：零售商越偏好公平,实物商品采购量和努力水平越低,但期权购买量依赖于契约参数之间的关系;协调契约可行域随公平偏好程度递减,但始终存在;在协调契约下,零售商的策略选择与公平偏好程度无关。最后实施了数值分析。     

基于风险管理的软件开发过程模型及其复合实物期权分析

本文在螺旋模型的基础上提出了集成风险管理的软件项目开发过程模型,并运用实物期权理论框架解释和证明了该过程模型的优势.使用变波动率多期复合实物期权模型量化了螺旋开发过程模型中决策灵活性的价值,敏感性分析的结果表明,螺旋模型在风险水平越高的情况下价值越为明显.此外,变波动率复合实物期权的引入很好地刻画了螺旋模型风险驱动盼特征,从而为软件项目开发过程中的动态序列决策提供了参考依据.     

Culture,connectedness, and international adoption of disruptive innovation

Why might nations vary in whether and how fast to adopt potentially disruptive innovations? Our study investigates this issue, specifically how a nation's adoption of creatively destroying innovations is related to two previously unexplored variables: cultural looseness, which is a norm-based measure of informal institutions, and global connectedness. To highlight potential contributions from these new variables, we control for within-nation contextual variables examined in prior research, including formal institutions, Hofstede's dimensions of cultural values, socioeconomic attributes, and between-nation economic grouping. Our empirical analysis of a specific disruptive innovation, agricultural biotechnology adoption, covers 47 nations over a 14-year period and provides broad support for the usefulness of cultural looseness and global connectedness for understanding innovation adoption. Cultural looseness is significantly related to adoption of agricultural biotech. Global connectedness dimensions of depth and breadth are not directly related to adoption, only interactively with cultural looseness. These findings highlight the role of informal institutions and global connectedness in shaping complex interactions between disruptive innovation and industrial evolution within and across nations. The findings also have implications for what public policy makers might do to influence the extent of adoption of such innovations.     

Determinants of innovativeness in SMEs: disentangling core innovation and technology adoption capabilities

This paper studies innovativeness in SMEs from a set of innovation indicators at the firm level, capturing various types of innovation (product, process, organisational, and marketing innovations) and the level of innovativeness in these firm’s developments. The article identifies two separate dimensions in the innovativeness of Spanish SMEs, using factor analysis techniques. One dimension is associated with the capabilities for core/internal innovation and the other with the capabilities for the adoption of technology. The paper shows that significant differences exist in the personal and organisational factors that favour these two dimensions. The entrepreneur’s motivation, business planning, and cooperation in R&D activities constitute significant factors when considering the core dimension of a firechnology adoption. However, the use of external consultancy services seems to have no significant effect on the core dimension of the innovativeness of an SME, whereas it is a relevant factor for its technology adoption. Furthermore, it is shown that the entrepreneur’s education plays a more significant role in the core dimension of a firm’s innovativeness than in its capabilities for technology adoption. Depending on the policy objectives, these differences should lead to the application of specific policy approaches when an attempt to stimulate innovation in SMEs is made.     

Open collaborative innovation and digital platforms

Abstract

This study uses contract theory to analyse the relationship between open collaborative innovation strategies and digital platforms. We argue that a collaborative mechanism and governance of the platform affect how operations are run and impact firm ambidexterity. We also explain how the twofold revealing strategy, both selective and free occurs via the platform and how governance positively impacts the coordination mechanism. A case study analysis on TIM OPEN draws a ground-breaking framework for future investigations. The analysis suggests that the combination of digital platform and collaborative innovation can facilitate the creative process and be a driver of operational synergies. Results confirm that the adoption of digital platforms for collaborative innovations reduces transaction costs.     

财务策略对新技术采用决策的影响

假定未来随机出现的技术创新会造成现有新技术价值的下降,给出新技术价值估计和采用决策模型,进而分析杠杆融资时新技术的投资(采用)决策.研究结果表明,财务危机和融资约束会延缓新技术的采用;债务融资对新技术投资门槛值的影响依其融资水平的变化而发生变化;由于财务策略的作用,随着技术创新速度和创新程度的增加,企业可能加快对新技术的采用.     

多代新技术的最优投资策略和扩散研究——一种实物期权方法

本文通过将新技术的出现描述为泊松过程,在未来多代新技术和投资成本随新技术出现不断下降的情形下,通过新技术采纳的累积概率分布函数,研究企业最优的技术投资策略以及新技术的扩散过程。在分析未来两代新技术的情形时,对比净现值(NPV)法则下得到的企业最优投资策略,由于NPV法忽视了企业推迟投资的期权价值,企业在NPV方法下只能得到次优的决策。数字释例显示出企业的技术采纳行为如何受到创新速度、折现率、投资成本及其下降幅度的影响。进一步在无穷代新技术的情形下,得到了企业最迟投资时间的计算方法。本文模型可以用来预测现实中企业的投资策略,并为实证分析新技术的采纳和扩散过程提供了理论支持。     

The Effect of Perceived Novelty on the Adoption of Information Technology Innovations: A Risk/Reward Perspective

A fundamental characteristic of any innovation is its novelty, the newness or freshness of the innovation in the eyes of the adopter. Past research has often considered novelty to be inherent to an information technology (IT) innovation, yet it is also likely that perceptions of novelty differ widely across individuals. Nevertheless, the role that the novelty of an IT innovation plays in adoption is not well understood. The primary goal of this research effort is to frame the perceived novelty of an IT innovation as a salient affective belief in the nomological network related to adoption. Further, we examine how perceived novelty influences the way individuals reconcile their perceptions of risk versus reward when considering the adoption of an IT innovation. Two empirical studies with 424 and 138 participants, respectively, examine the effect of perceived novelty on IT innovations from a risk/reward perspective. Results indicate that perceived novelty is a salient affective belief that plays a significant role in the adoption of IT innovations. Implications for both theory and organizational decision making are examined.     

An Empirically Derived Model for the Adoption of Customer-based Interorganizational Systems*

Information systems (IS) researchers are now calling for the need to draw from the empirically rich field of organizational innovation. As the impact of strategic systems is increasingly being felt by organizations, the view that these systems are innovations or innovative uses of technology is becoming prevalent. Customer based interorganizational systems (CIOS) represent one of the most prominent types of such systems. This research investigates CIOS adoption. A model is constructed based on significant studies in innovation to identify factors facilitating the adoption decision of a CIOS. Data are gathered from 226 senior executives. Discriminant analysis is used to identify factors that distinguish adopters from nonadopters. Factor analysis of significant variables yielded a parsimonious model of CIOS adoption. The five factor model includes (1) a proactive technological orientation and (2) an internal push for the system as the two most significant sets of facilitators. Implications for research and practice are then discussed.     

The dynamics of local and interactive effects on innovation adoption: The case of electronic commerce

Innovation adoption is determined not only by the opportunities and constraints resulting from organizations’ characteristics (local effects), but also by reaction to the adoption of their interdependent and referable others (interactive effects). This study examines the dynamics of innovation adoption by considering both local and interactive effects in early adopters relative to later adopters, and then investigates the electronic commerce adoption as an empirical example. Analysis results show that the crucial stimulating effects in the early market are focused on the nature of innovations, while those in the later market are concentrated on the practical implementation issues of innovations.     

The innovation dynamics and technology cycles in the computer industry

This paper presents certain novel composite measures of technology. There are several important uses of the proposed measures in R & D management: to gauge the rate of innovation within any given field, to determine the relative contribution of chosen variables to technical progress, to isolate critical factors in the innovative activity, and to predict whether a technology is ahead or behind its time. This is illustrated here by means of a case study of technical progress in the computer industry. The theoretical framework of the case study is based on the earlier works of the author pointing to the existence of what may be called technology cycles that transcend both product life cycle and organization product cycle and have the same significance to innovative activity as have business cycles to economic activity. The results of our investigation reveal a ‘butterfly pattern’ of interaction between product and process innovations: The loss in the relevance of process innovations is almost exactly compensated by the gain in the relevance of product innovations to technical progress over the course of time. The results also indicate that although the pace of technical progress in the computer industry has been exceptionally rapid in the past, it shows signs of slowing down in the future. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Examining the Impact of Pre‐Implementation Expectations on Post‐Implementation Use of Enterprise Systems: A Longitudinal Study

This article builds upon the technology acceptance model and theories of technology sensemaking to explore pre‐enterprise system adoption expectations and post‐enterprise system adoption outcomes in a longitudinal setting. Building on the exploitation and exploration paradigm, we propose that task productivity and task innovation expectations are the key drivers of users’ pre‐adoption enterprise system usage intention. Further, we argue that the enterprise system facilitates generation of a common knowledge base that may encourage a more integrated organizational culture and promote shared understanding among employees. Considering the distinction between mandatory and voluntary contexts, we propose that user acceptance of the enterprise system at the pre‐ and post‐adoption stages will mediate these relationships in a mandatory context. The results show that the influence of pre‐adoption expectations regarding task productivity and task innovation on intention to use an enterprise system is mediated by user acceptance of the enterprise system. Intention to use an enterprise system is positively related to actual use. At the post‐adoption stage, the influence of actual use on shared understanding is mediated by user acceptance of an enterprise system and enterprise system use has a direct negative impact on task efficiency in the initial period after implementation. Overall, the results highlight that user acceptance at both pre‐ and post‐adoption stages are critical factors when usage is mandatory. These findings suggest a number of important implications for research and for managerial action.