Cumulative prospect theory's functional menagerie

Many different functional forms have been suggested for both the value function and probability weighting function of Cumulative Prospect Theory (Tversky and Kahneman, 1992). There are also many stochastic choice functions available. Since these three components only make predictions when considered in combination, this paper examines the complete pattern of 256 model variants that can be constructed from twenty functions. All these variants are fit to experimental data and their explanatory power assessed. Significant interaction effects are observed. The best model has a power value function, a risky weighting function due to Prelec (1998), and a Logit function. JEL Classification C52 · D81     

Evidence for Learning to Learn Behavior in Normal Form Games

Evidence presented in Salmon (2001; Econometrica 69(6) 1597) indicates that typical tests to identify learning behavior in experiments involving normal form games possess little power to reject incorrect models. This paper begins by presenting results from an experiment designed to gather alternative data to overcome this problem. The results from these experiments indicate support for a learning-to-learn or rule learning hypothesis in which subjects change their decision rule over time. These results are then used to construct an adaptive learning model which is intended to mimic more accurately the behavior observed. The final section of the paper presents results from a simple simulation based analysis comparing the performance of this adaptive learning model with that of several standard decision rules in reproducing the choice patterns observed in the experiment.JEL Classification: C92, C72     

Avoiding the curves: Direct elicitation of time preferences

We propose and test a new method for eliciting curvature-controlled discount rates that are invariant to the form of the utility function. Our method uses a single elicitation task and obtains individual discount rates without knowledge of risk attitude or parametric assumptions about the form of the utility function. We compare our method to a double elicitation technique in which the utility function and discount rate are jointly estimated. Our experiment shows that these methods yield consistent estimates of the discount rate, which is reassuring given the wide range of estimates in the literature. We find little evidence of probability weighting, but in a second experiment, we observe that discount rates are sensitive to the length of the front-end delay, suggesting present bias. When the front-end delay is at least two weeks, we estimate average discount rates to be 11.3 and 12.2% in the two experiments.     

Testing independence conditions in the presence of errors and splitting effects

This paper presents experimental tests of several independence conditions implied by expected utility and alternative models. We perform repeated choice experiments and fit an error model that allows us to discriminate between true violations of independence and those that can be attributed to errors. In order to investigate the role of event splitting effects, we present each choice problem not only in coalesced form (as in many previous studies) but also in split forms. It turns out previously reported violations of independence and splitting effects remain significant even when controlling for errors. However, splitting effects have a substantial influence on tests of independence conditions. When choices are presented in canonical split form, in which probabilities on corresponding probability-consequence ranked branches are equal, violations of the properties tested could be reduced to insignificance or even reversed.     

An experimental evaluation of the descriptive validity of lottery-dependent utility theory

This article compares the performance of the expected utility (EU) and lottery-dependent expected utility (LDEU) models in predicting the actual choices of experimental subjects among risky options. In the process, we present two approaches for calibrating the LDEU model for an individual decision maker. The results indicate that while LDEU exhibits a higher potential for correctly predicting choice, the version of the model calibrated by indifference judgments does not outperform EU. We suggest a functional form for the parametric functions that defines the LDEU model, and discuss ways in which this function can be incorporated into choice-based assessment approaches to improve predictions.This research was supported in part by the Business Associates Fund at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.     

A Further Examination of Cumulative Prospect Theory Parameterizations

Recent experimental studies have focused on fitting parameterized functional forms to cumulative prospect theory's weighting function. This paper examines the behavioral implications of the functional forms and the estimated parameters. We find that none of the parameterizations can simultaneously account for gambling on unlikely gains and the Allais paradox behavior or other strong choice patterns from experiments. Parameter estimates that lead to reasonable amounts of insurance and gambling behavior tend to also generate large risk premia. Taken as a whole, the analysis suggests that the functional forms proposed in the literature are not suitable for generalization to applied settings.     

Laboratory experiments with a finite-horizon job-search model

In this article we explain the essential role of controlled experiments in testing job-search models. We derive the testable implications of a finite-horizon job-search model and lay out the design of the controlled experiments that we use to test those implications. We present the results of several parametric and nonparametric tests, all conditional on the actual draws of the wage offers. Overall, we find close agreement between the predictions of the search model and observations of search duration and income for several experimental treatments.     

Preferences over consumption and status

Experimental evidence suggests that individual consumption has not only personal value but also enters the social part of the utility. Existing models of social preferences make ad hoc parametric assumptions about the nature of this duality. This creates a problem of experimental identification of preferences since without such assumptions it is impossible to distinguish whether consumption or social concerns are driving the behavior. Given observed choice, the Axiomatic model of preferences in this article makes it possible to unambiguously determine personal and social utility without any assumptions about their relationship. The unique separation can be achieved only if the individual choices in different subgroups of other people are available. Preferences over consumption and status are used as an example to demonstrate how the utility is constructed. The model shows what kind of information about choice is needed to empirically determine the nature of social preferences without making restrictive assumptions. This can help to estimate whether personal consumption or social value is more important in economic decisions.     

Partial vs. general equilibrium analysis and choice of functional form: Implications for policy modeling

In formulating empirically tractable, economywide models, researchers are often forced to employ “convenient” functional forms. These forms embody restrictive maintained hypotheses. Alternatively, flexible functional forms may be utilized in a partial equilibrium setting. Estimation and incorporation of flexible functions into computable general equilibrium models is considerably more demanding of research resources. Assuming that shortcuts will continue to be necessary for researchers attempting to respond to current policy problems, this paper compares these two alternatives. Specifically, a general equilibrium model for New York State is employed to evaluate the relative performances of flexible partial equilibrium models and their more restrictive, general equilibrium counterpart. In the particular application considered, the former approach is found to dominate the latter.     

Comparing risk preferences over financial and environmental lotteries

This paper investigates whether preferences over environmental risks are best modeled using probability-weighted utility functions or can be reasonably approximated by expected utility (EU) or subjective EU models as is typically assumed. I elicit risk attitudes in the financial and environmental domains using multiple-price list experiment. I examine how subjects?? behavioral, attitudinal, and demographic characteristics affect their probability weighting functions first for financial risks, then for oil-spill risks. I find that most subjects tend to overweight extreme positive outcomes relative to expected utility in both the environmental and financial domains. Subjects are more likely to overemphasize low probability, extreme environmental outcomes than low probability, extreme financial outcomes, leading subjects to offer more support for mitigating environmental gambles than financial gambles with the same odds and equivalent outcomes. I conclude that EU models are likely to underestimate subjects?? willingness to pay for environmental cleanup programs or policies with uncertain outcomes.     

Occupational burnout and cyberloafing among teachers: Analysis of personality traits,individual and occupational status variables as predictors

One of the phenomena that causes remarkable losses in terms of productivity and cost in organizations is occupational burnout. Burnout is encountered in different occupational groups. However, in professions that are in contact with a large number of people as part of their responsibilities, such as teaching, burnout is a problem that is far more on the foreground. In addition, emotional burnout, which is seen as the first step before occupational burnout, can cause workers to feel insufficient at the point of carrying out tasks related to their duties, leading to behaviour that is out of their fields such as cyberloafing. Addressing this situation in terms of teaching profession, the feeling of inadequacy in educational activities during the course may prevent the teacher from fulfilling any responsibilities while using a device that has internet access. In this context, the aim of this study is to investigate the factors that predict the cyberloafing and burnout levels of teachers working in different fields. This research is a relational research. This research was carried out with the participations of 194 teachers from different branches working in various provinces in Turkey. In this study, a personal information form and three different data collection tools were used. Analysis of the collected data was performed by hierarchical linear multiple regression analysis. The 9 models, created separately with cyberloafing and burnout, were found to be significant in the study. Demographic variables, ICT usage status variables, occupational variables and personality traits were used in these models. Therefore, all the hypotheses included in the research were accepted. As a result of the research, demographic variables were found to be the most important model to predict teachers’ occupational burnout. The most important model explaining teachers’ cyberloafing situations is their ICT usage.     

On probabilities and loss aversion

This paper reviews the most common approaches that have been adopted to analyze and describe loss aversion under prospect theory. Subsequently, it is argued that loss aversion is a property of observable choice behavior and two new definitions of loss averse behavior are advocated. Under prospect theory, the new properties hold if the commonly used utility based measures of loss aversion are corrected by a probability based measure of loss aversion and their product exceeds 1. It is shown that prominent parametric families of weighting functions, while successful in accommodating empirical findings on probabilistic risk attitudes, may not fit well with the theoretical implications of the new loss averse behavior conditions.     

Foundations of the theory of evidence: Resolving conflict among schemata

Schematic conflict occurs when evidence is interpreted in different ways (for example, by different people, who have learned to approach the given evidence with different schemata). Such conflicts are resolved either by weighting some schemata more heavily than others, or by finding common-ground inferences for several schemata, or by a combination of these two processes. Belief functions, interpreted as representations of evidence strength, provide a natural model for weighting schemata, and can be utilized in several distinct ways to compute common-ground inferences. In two examples, different computations seem to be required for reasonable common-ground inference. In the first, competing scientific theories produce distinct, logically independent inferences based on the same data. In this example, the simple product of the competing belief functions is a plausible evaluation of common ground. In the second example (sensitivity analysis), the conflict is among alternative statistical assumptions. Here, a product of belief functions will not do, but the upper envelope of normalized likelihood functions provides a reasonable definition of common ground. Different inference contexts thus seem to require different methods of conflict resolution. A class of such methods is described, and one characteristic property of this class is proved.     

全球化、文化多样性与当代性

现代化的过程会给民族文化带来各种各样的改变。在全球化的影响下,人们的价值标准在发生着变化。全球化所带来的结果是,人们要把不同地方的艺术放在一起评价。不同的民族文化,有着自身的符号表意传统,这种传统会融化到民族和文化的血液之中。传统还会回潮,会以某种形式顽强地保存下去并展现出来,不断以新的形式活在当代。人是传统的承载体,文化的多样性,意味着个人保持自己的传统的可能性。一个开放的社会与一个封闭的社会的区别在于如何看待这种文化的差异。在不同的文化中,“进步”会以不同的方式表现出来,显示出不同的特点。各种不同的文化有着各自的现代化道路,因而,现代化是复数的。不同的文化有着自己的传统,它们在走向现代的过程中,有可能在原有基础上不断寻求和生成自身的现代因素,从而形成自己的现代文化。现代性也是复数的,不存在单一的现代性。当代社会正在出现一种区别于“后现代性”的“当代性”,它意味着许多重要理论的突破和重要传统的复归,人们可以通过它“回到未来”。     

The two faces of independence: betweenness and homotheticity

This paper shows that expected utility belongs to the intersection of models satisfying betweenness and a homotheticity condition for risky choice. Betweenness models can accommodate variable risk attitudes, originally highlighted by the Allais paradox, by restricting indifference curves to be linear while allowing non-parallelism. Homotheticity, in contrast, restricts indifference curves to be parallel while permitting non-linearities, such as those highlighted by inverse-S probability weighting. Data from an experiment indicate that approximately 2/3s of participants satisfied homotheticity. Of this group, about half satisfied the expected utility hypothesis. The other half violated expected utility and therefore betweenness. These results indicate that homothetic preferences, and in particular those violating betweenness, can be empirically relevant for decision making under risk.

     

An axiomatic approach to predictability of outcomes in an interactive setting

This article is an axiomatic approach to the problem of ranking game forms in terms of the predictability they offer to individuals. Two criteria are proposed and characterized, the CardMin and the CardMax. Both compare game forms on the basis of the number of distinct outcomes that can result from the choice of a CardMin (resp. CardMax) strategy. The CardMin (resp. CardMax) strategy is defined as a strategy leading to the smallest (resp. highest) number of different outcomes. In both cases, the lower these numbers the better the game form.     

Separating curvature and elevation: A parametric probability weighting function

This paper presents a preference foundation for a two-parameter family of probability weighting functions. We provide a theoretical link between the well-established notions of probabilistic risk attitudes (i.e., optimism and pessimism) used in economics and the important independent measures for individual behavior used in the psychology literature (i.e., curvature and elevation). One of the parameters in our model measures curvature and represents the diminishing effect of optimism and pessimism when moving away from extreme probabilities 0 and 1. The other parameter measures elevation and represents the relative strength of optimism vs. pessimism. Our empirical analysis indicates that the new weighting function fits elicited probability weights well, and that it can explain differences in the treatment of probabilities for gains compared to that for probabilities of losses.     

Games of Incomplete Information Without Common Knowledge Priors

We relax the assumption that priors are common knowledge, in the standard model of games of incomplete information. We make the realistic assumption that the players are boundedly rational: they base their actions on finite-order belief hierarchies. When the different layers of beliefs are independent of each other, we can retain Harsányi's type-space, and we can define straightforward generalizations of Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE) and Rationalizability in our context. Since neither of these concepts is quite satisfactory, we propose a hybrid concept, Mirage Equilibrium, providing us with a practical tool to work with inconsistent belief hierarchies. When the different layers of beliefs are correlated, we must enlarge the type-space to include the parametric beliefs. This presents us with the difficulty of the inherent openness of finite belief subspaces. Appealing to bounded rationality once more, we posit that the players believe that their opponent holds a belief hierarchy one layer shorter than they do and we provide alternative generalizations of BNE and Rationalizability. Finally, we show that, when beliefs are degenerate point beliefs, the definition of Mirage Equilibrium coincides with that of the generalized BNE. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Common Consequence Conditions in Decision Making under Risk

We generalize the Allais common consequence effect by describing three common consequence effect conditions and characterizing their implications for the probability weighting function in rank-dependent expected utility. The three conditions—horizontal, vertical, and diagonal shifts within the probability triangle—are necessary and sufficient for different curvature properties of the probability weighting function. The first two conditions, shifts in probability mass from the lowest to middle outcomes and middle to highest outcomes respectively, are alternative conditions for concavity and convexity of the weighting function. The third condition, decreasing Pratt-Arrow absolute concavity, is consistent with recently proposed weighting functions. The three conditions collectively characterize where indifference curves fan out and where they fan in. The common consequence conditions indicate that for nonlinear weighting functions in the context of rank-dependent expected utility, there must exist a region where indifference curves fan out in one direction and fan in the other direction.