Emigration dynamics in developing countries

This paper describes the research objectives and summarizes first-stage findings of a joint project of the International Organization for Migration and the UN Population Fund on emigration dynamics in developing countries. The paper was prepared for a conference in Bellagio organized to allow academics, policy-makers, and officials to evaluate the first-stage findings and to appraise the stage-two research proposals. The research methodology developed at a 1993 project launching meeting held in Geneva drew on demographic transition theory and involves inclusion in the research framework of economic; demographic; community, family, and individual; and sociopolitical variables which would provide a dynamic understanding of why different migration flows were occurring and allow projections of various types of future migration. In addition, the research was to explain all types of migration, with disaggregation by type provided. The first stage of research (reported at this conference) was devoted to obtaining and assembling data on the factors known to influence emigration dynamics. The second stage will be devoted to attempts to measure the interaction among variables in a specific region. The first-stage findings are summarized in this paper for sub-Saharan Africa, southern Asia, and Central America and the Caribbean. This paper ends by noting that this research takes the same direction as objectives cited in the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development's (ICPD) Programme for Action. The evaluation of the proposal of second-stage research will include ways to maximize the concordance of that research with the goals of the ICPD.     

Estimation of International Migration in Post‐Soviet Republics

When annual migration data lack reliability, scholars apply alternative methods for estimating international migration. Yet, researchers note that alternative approaches have primarily been tested on developed countries, rather than developing countries that usually have dramatic migration shifts. I close this research gap. I use the example of 15 former Soviet republics to demonstrate several conclusions. First, I show that such alternative approaches as immigration‐by‐origin data of receiving countries do not result in reliable and valid estimates of post‐Soviet migration, given the large variation that exists in how former Soviet republics define “migrant”. Second, I demonstrate that population censuses, while a more superior alternative, fail to capture temporary migrants. In developing countries, the international emigration is mainly due to temporary (undocumented labour) migration. Third, I suggest that scholars and policy‐makers should apply household surveys as a possible alternative. However, while this method seems promising, given the limited use of household surveys in migration measurement in the post‐Soviet republics, future research by both scholars and applied researchers should explore the advantages and limitations of household surveys as an alternative source for estimation of migration. Finally, I outline methodological guidelines that researchers and scholars can advance on migration issues in the post‐Soviet region.     

Emigration dynamics of eastern African countries

This examination of emigration dynamics focuses on 13 countries extending from Eritrea to Zimbabwe and Mozambique on the eastern African mainland and on 5 Indian Ocean island nations. The first part of the study looks at the temporal, spatial, and structural perspectives of emigration dynamics. Part 2 considers international migration in the region according to Appleyard's typology (permanent settlers, labor migration, refugees, and illegal migrants) with the additional category of return migration. Measurement issues in emigration dynamics are discussed in part 3, and the demographic/economic setting is the topic of part 4. The demographic factors emphasized include spatial distribution, population density, population structure, population dynamics, demographic transition, and the relationship between internal and international migration. Other major topics of this section of the study are the economic base, the human resource base, population and natural resources, the sociocultural context (emigration, chain migration, return migration, and migration linkages and networks), political factors (including human rights, minority rights and security, regional integration and economic cooperation, and the impact of structural adjustment programs), and a prediction of future emigration dynamics. It is concluded that refugee flows remain a major factor in eastern African countries but the development of human resources in the northern portion of the region indicates development of potential labor migration from this area. Data constraints have limited measurement of emigration in this region and may contribute to the seeming indifference of most eastern African countries to emigration policies. Emigration in this region has been triggered by deteriorating economic and political conditions and is expected to increase.     

An overview of present and future emigration dynamics in South Asia

The author presents preliminary findings on selected aspects of the dynamics which govern emigration from and within the South Asian region comprised of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The paper attempts to identify some of the major reasons for observed migration flows and how the future may be envisaged especially in view of government programs, policies, and priorities. Contract labor migration is given special attention since it has become the predominant type of migration in the region. Sections consider a possible conceptual framework; measuring emigration pressure or potential; data and data problems; the volume of emigration since 1970; South Asian migrant workers; macro-level determinants of emigration; community, family, and individual factors; and sending country policies. The consequences of emigration are discussed in terms of the impacts upon the labor force and non-economic consequences. Observations for the future conclude the paper. Analysis of the dynamics of emigration from South Asia indicate an urgent need to improve data on various forms of emigration, that relevant officials in countries of origin have a longstanding concern about the exploitation of workers in sending as well as receiving countries, and the need to better understand the linkages between various factors relevant to the emigration process. An understanding of such linkages would allow for more realistic policies and planning for future emigration.     

Emigration from China: A Sending Country Perspective

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the policies pursued by the People's Republic of China (PRC) regarding the emigration of Chinese nationals. Most of the available literature on migration management has focused on receiving countries. With a few exceptions, little attention has been directed at migration management policies pursued in countries of origin. In the case of the PRC, policies regarding overseas Chinese have been fairly well documented and researched, but very little has been written about how the Chinese authorities manage ongoing emigration flows. This gap becomes particularly salient as the importance of the “partnership with the countries of origin” in devising migration policies is being increasingly acknowledged by receiving countries in Europe (Commission of the European Communities, 2000). Over the last 20 years, there have been significant changes in the Chinese Government's policies and perspectives on emigration. But, just like most other governments, the Chinese authorities do not have a single blanket policy covering all categories of emigrants. Emigration is normally managed on a case‐by‐case basis and the Government's attitude toward the same type of emigration may vary depending on different cases and circumstances. Because of this, this article examines China's major emigration‐related policy spheres one by one. Specifically, six issues will be discussed: (1) exit control; (2) diaspora policy; (3) student migration; (4) labour export; (5) regulations on emigration agencies and, finally (6) the Government's response to human smuggling. This article shows both the coherence and the fragmentation in China's policies toward emigration. The coherence is due to the fact that all the policies are inherently linked to China's overall economic and social development strategy. The emigration management regime is sometimes fragmented partly because emigration consists of different streams and is handled by different Government departments, partly because some emigration issues (such as regulations on emigration agents) are very new for the Chinese Government and the authorities are still exploring them. Overall, the Chinese authorities increasingly see emigration as a means to enhance China's integration to the world and are keen to avoid conflicts with the international community over migration issues. At the same time, China's emigration policies need to be more balanced, in particular, the emigration of unskilled labour should be given more priority.     

(IM)MIGRATION RESEARCH IN ITALY: A European Comparative Perspective

This article analyzes research on (im)migration in Italy since the early 1980s until the present as compared to research in other European receiving countries. Two periods are singled out. In the 1980s, the need to make sense of the dramatic Italian U-turn from an emigration to an immigration country prevails. Since the mid-1990s, some trends toward convergence emerge, following a number of theoretical and methodological challenges arising from North American research. Whereas for sociologist and anthropologist much of the debate is on social networks and transnationalism, in political science the gradual emerging of a policy approach to migration studies can be pointed out. However, despite the consolidating research infrastructure, there are still open questions and gaps in contemporary research on migration in Italy, for instance, second-generations, immigrants' associational and political participation, and last but not least, the impact of the European Union on Italian immigration and immigrant policy as well as policy making.     

Emigration dynamics in South Asia,IOM / UNFPA workshop, 2-3 September 1996, IOM headquarters,Geneva, Switzerland

This paper describes the six research monographs that were presented at the Emigration Dynamic Workshops in South Asia in September 1996. Research reports were presented by Associate Professor Nasra Shah on an overview of emigration dynamics, Dr. Godfrey Gunatilleke on the role of networks and community structures in migration from Sri Lanka, Dr. Raisul Awal Mahmood on illegal migration from Bangladesh to Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, and Delhi due to desperate poverty, Dr. Farooq-i-Azam on high and low labor-sending migration districts in Pakistan, Dr. Mahendra K. Premi on the impact of internal Indian migration on international migration, and Dr. P.R. Gopinathan Nair on emigration from Kerala, India, to the Middle East. Representatives of South Asian governments discussed the implications of the research findings. Pakistan's representative urged cooperation and joint strategies among labor-sending countries. He cautioned that income and remittance estimates were unstable and unrealistic for inclusion in economic development plans. The Indian representative noted that, although Indian emigration is low, it is highly visible in the press. He agreed with the suggestion for greater cooperation between sending countries. The Bangladesh representative stated that the country needed to locate new markets for Bangladeshi emigrants, to guarantee the rights of emigrant workers, and to prevent trafficking in illegal migrant workers. Three major topics were discussed in the workshop session on the implementation of programs based on research findings. Workshop participants recommended updated information on migration trends, updated information on labor markets in receiving countries, formal and regular policy dialogue between sending countries, and promotion of continuing research by the International Organization on Migration.     

Emigration dynamics from and within South Asia

This review of current knowledge about emigration dynamics from and within South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) opens with a brief history of the three phases of emigration from the area since the 1830s (plantation labor; postindependence to the UK, US, Canada, and Australia; and labor migration to the oil-exporting countries). The influence of the creation of Pakistan and Bangladesh is also covered as are British colonial and commonwealth policies. It is noted that migration data are incomplete and that India exhibits an ambivalence about collecting such information. The discussion then turns to emigration since 1970 and considers permanent migration from South Asia to the traditional receivers; South Asian asylum seekers in Europe; South Asian refugees, illegal migrants, migrant workers (flows and destinations), the stock of contract migrant workers (and their characteristics); returnee migrant workers; and skill levels. Analysis is provided of macro level determinants of emigrations such as gross national product (level and growth), the general demographic and social situation, labor force growth and structure, poverty and inequality, and internal and international migration. Environmental factors causing displacement in Southern Asia include floods, cyclones, river bank erosion, drought, and desertification. Global warming could displace millions of people in the region, and development projects have contributed to displacement. The remainder of the report covers political and ethnic factors, micro-factors influencing migration decision-making, the policies of sending and receiving countries, the consequences of emigration, and the potential for migration in the future.     

“In Their Own Voices”

Abstract

Social policy should be informed by scientific research. Yet, the rapport between researchers and policy makers remains poor, and the translation of social research into social policy haphazard. Many researchers follow a positivist paradigm and prepare quantitative reports that are difficult for policy makers to decipher. Good research is “wasted” because policy makers consider it irrelevant to the real-life problems of their constituents. Policy research that are qualitative narratives are more readerfriendly and thus more appealing to policy makers. This article argues for the inclusion of qualitative methods into research conducted to inform social policy and offers several case examples.     

How Academic Research Shapes Labor and Social Policy

How academic research affects labor and social policy is viewed through a program evaluation framework that highlights the difficulties of determining the causal impact of such research on public policy. The effect is illustrated by examples. My conclusion is that academic research can have a modest to substantial impact on policy. Its impact is enhanced if it has a number of key characteristics: high quality; reputable researchers involved; synthesized and translated into a language understood by policy makers, the general public, and the media; credible champions who will broker and defend it, in the political process or in the public realm; timeliness; and, political acceptability.     

The pursuit of political will: decision makers’ incentives and gender policy implementation in the Western Balkans

In the Western Balkans, just as in newly democratized countries in other regions, failures in gender policy implementation are often attributed to lack of “political will.” There is however a surprising lack of specificity concerning what is meant by it and how to measure its influence on the observed implementation gaps. To help to begin filling this research gap this article examines the extent to which Western Balkans countries might be failing in the implementation of their adopted gender policies and the reasons why decision makers seem to lack the political will to implement them. To allow for a more in-depth perspective, the analysis will concentrate on the case of the implementation of Gender Responsive Budgeting (GRB) on the municipal level in the three countries in its focus: Bosnia and Hercegovina; Macedonia; and Serbia. The empirical material used for it consists of primary data from telephone surveys, in-depth interviews with actors involved in GRB policy processes and official documents.     

Emigration dynamics in the Arab region. IOM / UNFPA workshop, 7-8 October 1996, Geneva,Switzerland

This paper describes the four research monographs on emigration that were presented at the December 1995 Regional Workshop in the Arab Region. The workshop was an exchange of views and discussion of policy implications of emigration. Monographs were presented by Dr. Mayar Farrag on emigration in Egypt, Professor Nadji Safir on migration in the Maghreb, Dr. Setenay Shami on emigration dynamics in Jordan, and Dr. Lynn Evans on behalf of Dr. Ivy Papps on migration in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Dr. Farrag identified three periods of migration. During the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s, migrants were officially encouraged by Egypt to fill education positions. During the 1970s, many migrants left for the oil-producing countries on a temporary basis. Since the mid-1980s, the influences on Egyptian migration have been the economic recession and oil prices in the Gulf states, the completion of infrastructure projects in most Gulf states, and the replacement of foreign labor with nationals. Dr. Farrag recommended improving the migrants' skills in English and technology in order to maintain a dominant flow of temporary migrants to the Gulf region. Professor Safir reported that persons from the Maghreb region (Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco) migrated to France before independence and subsequently to West Germany and the Benelux countries. Algeria had the highest migration potential, and Morocco had the highest migration. Morocco had established networks in destination countries, high population growth rates, and high unemployment. Maghreb countries are receiving migrants from the south. Professor Safir recommended regional integration. Dr. Shami separated step migration from stepwise migration, which complicates push-pull theories. Dr. Papps argued that use of foreign labor may not be the best option for development, and that sending countries should be more aware of skill needs in GCC countries.     

Effects of migration on social change in the country of origin

This paper analyzes the consequences of migration for European countries of origin with a view to suggesting policies to resolve the difficulties of achieving equilibrium in balance of payments, regional development, increasing employment, reducing unemployment and inflation, raising productivity, and increasing the gross national product. Migratory flows are generally organized to meet immediate needs and solve latent socioeconomic tensions. Initially, the benefits for the 2 sets of countries (origin and destination) are considerable. Countries of origin manage to solve major problems in the areas of employment, undertake social and political efforts, and achieve equilibrium in the balance of payments through receiving remittances, which also contribute to the economic development of the regions of departure. For their part, receiving countries have reduced the shortage of cheap labor, a fact which, especially during the post-war recovery period, was instrumental in the recovery of their economies and the increased creation of wealth. From the demographic standpoint, many people have been deserting rural areas and there has been an increase in the aging of the population, with the resulting socioeconomic consequences. Emigration has also spread to women (family reunification), which in turn has led to a steeper decline in birth rates and made economic and social projections more difficult to assess. Social consequences have become obvious, emigration flows have led to a change of values and thus created a veritable cultural breach and disruption of rural societies. From the standpoint of employment, expectations have also been thwarted; despite their enormous experience, returning workers do not possess a high level of vocational training. For countries of origin, migratory trends may have some beneficial demographic, social, and economic effects if returns are carefully planned, prepared, conducted, and supported. There should be a considerable strengthening of relations between countries, effective cooperation and solidarity, and a shouldering of joint responsibility so as to define the correct policies for harmonious and more balanced world economic development.     

Global economic restructuring and international migration: some observations based on the Mexican and Central American experience

"The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between processes of global economic restructuring and international migration through an examination of Mexican and Central American immigration to the U.S. and the experiences of Central American and Mexican immigrants in the U.S. This relationship is analysed as one of mutual causation: on the one hand, global restructuring affects conditions in both sending and receiving countries (it is not only a factor in emigration but also in the economic and political receptivity to immigrants at their point of destination); on the other, international migration in turn has an important impact on countries of origin, receiving countries, and the relationship between them." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Beyond 3×1: Linking Sending and Receiving Societies in the Development Process

In this paper, I explore the possibilities of linking and expanding existing sending and receiving countries' initiatives that mobilize immigrants to participate in the development process of their countries of origin in such a way as to advance two main goals of such initiatives: (1) to multiply their developmental impact in sending regions; and (2) to help increase the social and political capital of immigrants and immigrant associations, so as to facilitate both their role in the development of their countries of origin and also their integration in their host societies. In the paper, I will study the Mexican 3×1 programme and Spain's co‐development model and explore the ways in which programmes such as these could be ideally linked and implemented, in diverse contexts, in a way that is advantageous to both sending and receiving societies. The paper is based on research conducted over the past 9 years with Mexican immigrant associations in the United States; on interviews with Mexican government officials in Mexico and the United States; and on interviews conducted in 2008 and 2009 in Spain.     

Emigration dynamics: the Indian context

This report on emigration dynamics in India opens by providing background on short- and long-distance migration to and from India in response to such events as the formation of Pakistan as well as to the policies of the British Empire and Commonwealth. Section 2 discusses India's demographic and sociocultural setting in terms of population growth, urbanization, patterns of internal migration, growth of the labor force, economic growth, poverty alleviation, health, and education. The third section describes the lack of data on international migration. Some data are available on emigrants, but the only information on return migration is that gleaned from surveys in Kerala. Section 4 considers emigration to industrialized countries and notes that it is almost exclusively permanent and largely composed of individuals with professional, technical, or managerial skills. The resulting brain drain is described as is the incidence of illegal migration. India does not create conditions from which citizens must seek asylum, rather the country has absorbed flows of refugees from Pakistan, Tibet, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka. Available data on the characteristics of emigrants and return migrants are reviewed in the next two sections, and section 7 looks at the data on financial flows gathered from macro-level estimates of remittances. Section 8 is devoted to the community, family, and individual factors which influence emigration including the networks that facilitate migration and means of meeting migration costs. The ninth section summarizes the political setting with an emphasis on the adverse reaction of Nepal to population movement from India. The final section of the report projects future population movements. It is noted that if there were no restrictions on migration, millions of Indians would emigrate to the Americas, Africa, and Australia. Whereas poverty, unemployment, and population growth will likely erode living conditions in India, the government has no policy to encourage emigration. Labor migration to the Gulf countries will likely continue.     

EU Integration & Emigration Consequences: The Case of Lithuania

This paper analyses the causes, consequences, and policy implications of Lithuanian emigration following the country’s European Union (EU) accession in May 2004. After placing Lithuanian emigration in its historical context, the study assesses the recent dynamics, including the driving forces and characteristics of Lithuanian emigration at both the international and domestic level. The study finds that the primary determinants of this movement are both demand‐ and supply‐side factors. On the demand side, the labour shortages, decline in the working age population, and desire for cheaper labour in Western European countries function to attract Lithuanian labour. Concurrently, lower wages, higher unemployment, and the generally less developed economic conditions in Lithuania are encouraging Lithuanians to take advantage of the greater mobility that came with EU accession. The expanding networks linking migrants and potential migrants are facilitating this out‐migration, as well as the social mind‐set by which emigration is a perceived solution to socio‐economic difficulties. This study concludes that the consequences of this new emigration reality are mixed. The free movement of workers has helped to relieve pressure on the domestic labour market, drive down unemployment, place upward pressure on wages, and increase the remittances rate to Lithuania. However, concern is not ill‐founded; recent emigration has introduced labour market shortages, placed greater demographic pressure on the country, and increased the likelihood of brain drain. This study argues, therefore, that while Lithuanian emigration cannot and should not be stopped, Lithuania does have policy alternatives as a sending‐country that will help to mitigate the costs of emigration and maximize the benefits for the country’s long‐term development.     

Are there electoral cycles of emigration? An empirical investigation based on European data

Economic literature suggests that economic factors and the availability of amenities act as determinants of migration choices together with socio‐demographic factors. Migration has also been found to be the consequence of political instability. This article argues that specific political events, i.e., democratic elections, may be linked to migration flows. By using European data over the 1999‐2012 time period, our system GMM estimations reveal that there is an emigration political cycle across European democracies and across the young democracies of Central and Eastern European countries. We observe that regular elections tend to diminish emigration ratios, whereas endogenous elections have the opposite effect. These results suggest special challenges for governments and oppositions, which are also discussed.     

Sending countries and the politics of emigration and destination

This article examines available means and activities of sending countries in their efforts to exert control over the "long-term temporary" emigration process. In the European case, the structure of migration has provided sending countries with ongoing channels for promoting their interests. In this picture the political dimensions of immigration are analyzed as epiphenomenal, dependent, or inconsequential. It is assumed that 1) state power directly correlates with economic power, and 2) economic and strategic power differences between states necessarily imply inequality in social and cultural terms. Although emigration may not serve the long-term "objective" interests of senders, it does provide a short-term safety value from the point of view of political managers. Both sending and receiving countries' interests are best served by a system of temporary labor migration, not permanent immigration. The receivers' ability to act according to narrow economic self-interest is restricted by a host of multilateral agreements that regulate and define the obligations and rights of the participants in international migration. Bilateral agreements not only specify the conditions of recruitment, employment, and family migration, they also provide a continuing basis for sending country influence throughout the migration process. Sending states that have a long history of emigration tend to have more developed and articulated emigration policies and commensurate institutional structures to channel and control the migration process in all stages--leaving, working abroad, and returning. The reluctance of Europe's immigrants to serve their social and political ties to their countries of origin is reinforced by the sending countries' activities aimed at insuring the continued long-term but temporary nature of migration.