Population growth and rural-urban migration,with special reference to Ghana

While the population of Ghana is expected to double in 25 years at the current rate of increase (approximately 2.5% per annum), the population of urban centers is increasing even faster. The 1970 census shows the urban population growing by 4.8% per annum. This is mainly the result of rural to urban migration and, to a smaller extent, the increase in the number of urban centers from 39 in 1948 to 98 in 1960 to 135 in 1970. In the 1970 census only 57.1% of the population were enumerated in their locality of birth and only 20.9% in a locality other than their place of birth but in the same region. 4.1% were born outside Ghana, mostly in another West African country. 1 striking difference between urban and rural areas is the differing sex ratio of the working population. In rural areas there are 91.0 males aged 15-64 years for every 100 females while in urban areas there are 107.1. Most migration in Africa is for employment and those most likely to migrate are working-age males. Because secondary schools are scarce in rural areas, urban dwellers generally have a higher education level. There are no significant differences between overall labor force participation rates for females. The nationwide participation rate was 38.9% for both males and females (males 43.8%, females 34.1%); in urban areas the total was 40.0% (males 46.3%, females 33.7%) and in rural areas 38.5% (males 42.7%, females 34.3%). Ghanaian women have traditionally occupied a prominent place in the labor force. The theory that urban migration is due to urban-rural income disparities is not confirmed by figures. Considering the high amount of unemployment in urban areas, a rural dweller can average as much as a city dweller. In fact, poorly educated migrants are the ones most affected by urban unemployment. A recent study by Kodwo Ewusi considered the impact of many variables on migration; he found depressed social conditions at the place of origin are more compelling motivations than economic factors but that once people decide to migrate, they base their choice of destination primarily on economic opportunities available at that end. Distance bears little relationship to choice of destination. To stem this tide efforts need to be made to increase rural income, provide employment opportunities for those displaced as agriculture becomes more efficient, and to provide for greater amenities in rural areas. Urban unemployment is an ever-increasing problem, accentuated by population growth and migration. Intensive rural development is needed to reverse this trend.     

Migration,urbanization, and fertility in the Philippines

3 groups of women are compared in this study of the effect of migration on fertility in a less developed country: 1) rural sedentary; 2) rural to rural migrants; and 3) rural to urban migrants. The data are from a 1970 household interview study conducted by the Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado in Magsayay and Matanao, Davao Province, Mindanao, the Philippines. Social, economic, and mortality data were gathered from the household head and/or spouse for each household member and each child living elsewhere. Reproductive histories were obtained only from women for all women 15 years of age and older living in the 2 rural communities and living elsewhere. Age specific fertility rates and child woman ratios showed a declining gradient of fertility with social distance from the rural home communities. Age at marriage and education were positively associated with distance from the home communities and negatively associated with fertility. The data provide support for the hypothesis that recent migration is innovative, engaged in by more modernized persons who are motivated by aspiration to new goals, thus migration has a negative effect on fertility. Urbanization had its major impact after peak fertility years, 20-29, influencing urban migrants to bring their fertility under voluntary control. No such curtailment appeared in the late reproductive behavior of rural sedentary or migrant women. Urbanization seems to have a negative effect on fertility independent of migration. Young migrant women, in their teens, particularly those migrating to urban areas, did not fit the social mobility model; they tended to complete fewer years of school and married at an earlier age. These young urban migrants also had higher fertility than both rural sedentary and rural migrant females while in their teen years.     

Gendering Interprovincial Migration in China1

Migration is a gendered phenomenon, best understood as a series of relationships between socioeconomic factors and gender. Gender differences in migration efficiencies are investigated using the 1990 Census data in China. Results indicate that, although male migration rates are higher, female migration is more efficient in the sense that it contributes to greater population redistribution than male migration. Reflecting different economic and social roles, women are more likely to state social and family reasons for moving while men indicate economic motivations. In terms of the geography of movement, women are more sensitive than men to perceived and expected regional differences in economic opportunities, especially in rural areas. Job opportunities created in urban areas and by foreign enterprises are more attractive to male migrants. Development of light manufacturing industries and the benefits derived from the presence of previous migrants draw female more than male migrants.     

Gender and rural-urban migration in China

Many men and women in China are migrating in search of better economic opportunities. Young women who migrate to urban centers in search of opportunity may stay away from their home villages for several years. At some point, however, they are likely to return home. This article considers the effect which such circular migration is having upon gender relations in China. The author's argument is presented in sections on China's 1990 census, migration and the sexual division of labor, migration and child care, the influence of returning migrants, the influence of young female returnees, and the fertility of returnees. She speculates that the demands and expectations of young women who return to their villages after spending some time earning high wages in urban areas will be affected by urban norms. While their return may lead to initial conflict, it is likely that the women will retain greater personal autonomy from their urban experience. Their return is also likely to lead to a higher degree of material consumption in the rural areas. Present circular migration in China has the potential to return human and financial resources to the villages, thereby helping to prevent the urban-rural gap between economic, social, cultural, and educational factors from growing even wider.     

Bending the urban flow: a construction-migration strategy

The excess rate of migration to urban centers is a problem affecting over 50 developing countries and 18 developed ones (68% of the world's population). Policies that rely on compulsion or disincentives have mostly failed because they do not deal with the cause of the problem. This paper proposes a strategy of increasing or decreasing the rate of housing construction in different urban areas as a means of stimulating or reducing migration to those areas; in most developing areas priority is given to residential construction in already congested metropolitan areas. 5 assumptions are the basis for this approach: 1) migrants tend to gravitate to the most powerful growth poles; 2) residential construction is a leading sector of regional and urban economies; 3) the encouragement of construction activity will make itself felt indirectly via its effect on construction-related employment; 4) rates of residential construction may be manipulated through government policy affecting the cost of materials, availability of loans, level of unionization, and price of housing; and 5) residential construction is amenable to quick policy action. The central idea of the strategy is that an increase in residential construction will exercise a pull on migrants, increasing job opportunities, raising incomes, lowering housing costs, and improving the chances of home ownership. This idea has been verified by various projects in Hong Kong, Ghana, Venezuela, Brazil, Bahrain, Mexico, Colombia, Poland, USSR, and the UK. In Bahrain low-income housing programs have been used to relocate Bahraini nationals in new outlying suburbs and to promote population growth in rural villages. In Mexico self-help and low-income housing programs have helped to redirect migrants headed for small towns toward smaller communities. There is also evidence to show that building construction has the potential to expand and contribute to economic growth. Some problems of implementation might be finding an adequate economic base, the need to place new communities close to primate cities, the use of large portions of the national budget, and profit-maximizing plans have been detrimental to the speed and development of construction migration. Some benefits for smaller urban areas of construction migrants in developing countries are: 1) emphasis on the development of a labor-intensive industry, 2) little training of workers as needed, 3) it can provide the housing required by industries planning to move to smaller areas, 4) this housing will be cheaper, and 5) incentives will exist to save and invest in the smaller areas.     

Migration,unemployment and the urban labour market. A case study of the Sudan

Investigation of migration, unemployment, and the urban labor in Sudan was based on the Household Socioeconomic Survey of Greater Khartoum, conducted in October-November 1974. The survey sample consisted of 15,339 persons, 8904 of whom were natives of the 3 towns (Greater Khartoum) and 6435 were immigrants. Among the latter were 976 children below 12 years of age from whom no migration information was collected. Adult migrants were further subdivided into those who had migrated during the 5 years preceding the survey (947) and those who had migrated 5 or more years previously (4512). During the 5 years preceding the survey, the rate of migration into the 3 towns was of the order of 2.2% per annum. Over 80% of the migrants came from 9 of the 12 northern and central provinces. The 3 southern provinces contributed few migrants to the area. 47% of the recent migrants stated that their last place of residence had been a rural area; 53% reported an urban area. Among recent migrants, 69% of the males and 67% of the females were between the ages of 15-29. Only 4% of the males and 11% of the females were over 50. The migrants had a significantly higher level of education than the average population in the northern and central provinces where most of them originated, but this does not mean that they were necessarily better educated than the native population of the 3 towns. Of the 947 recent migrants, 354 had been working before the move. Of these the great majority, 73% had been in agriculture, 8% in services, 6% in trade, and 3% in construction. 18% of those working before the move were private employees, 6% government employees, and the remaining 76% either self employed or unpaid family workers. In this last category 82% of the self employed and 97% of the unpaid family workers had been in agriculture. The principal pull factors seemed to have been higher average annual earnings, job availability, better educational opportunities, and the low cost of migration due to the presence of friends and relatives in the 3 towns. Dominant among the push factors were population pressure, lack of job opportunities, and climatic conditions leading to low agricultural productivity and incomes. The overall labor force participation rate among recent recent migrants was 79% for males and only 7% for females. A higher proportion of newly arrived migrants worked in services and a lower proportion in transport. The proportion of natives who were engaged in professional, technical, and administrative work was almost double that of the migrant groups. Natives were also relatively more likely to be clerical workers. For both migrants and natives, average annual earnings increased steadily with the level of educational attainment. 50% of the migrants who came to the 3 towns without a job found a job within 6 months and that those who were unemployed for longer than this were supported by family or friends. The evidence suggests that migrants to Greater Khartoum are being absorbed into urban employment rather than relegated to irregular, low status activities on the fringe of the urban economy.     

Differential Recovery Migration across the Rural–Urban Gradient: Minimal and Short-Term Population Gains for Rural Disaster-Affected Gulf Coast Counties

Places affected or threatened by extreme environmental disturbances confront a number of significant issues, including whether their populations will stay the same or change through migration. Research on Hurricanes Katrina and Rita shows some displaced residents returned to their disaster-affected communities once the built environment was restored, new migrants settled in affected places as part of the rebuilding effort, and the regional migration system grew more urbanized and spatially concentrated during post-disaster years. Research also shows that not all disaster-affected places recovered their populations. Our study examines whether differential recovery is systematically patterned along the rural–urban gradient. Using U.S. Census Bureau estimates and IRS county-to-county migration data, we investigate whether the 2005 hurricane season differentially exacerbated or altered previous migration trends across a rural–urban gradient that incorporates proximity to metropolitan areas and disaster-related housing loss. We find a rural–urban differential in Gulf Coast recovery migration: The disaster boosted migration among non-metropolitan counties, yet these increases were smaller and short-lived compared to the patterns found for metropolitan counties, most especially high loss metropolitan counties. Our findings encourage theories of environmental migration to incorporate spatial differentiation and scenarios of environmental changes to account for differential impacts on settlement patterns across the rural–urban continuum.     

Population movement in Zhejiang province,China: the impact of government policies

"China's urbanization policies include strict control of permanent migration to large cities, but encourage the growth of small cities and towns. Concurrently, temporary migration is widely permitted as a way to stimulate commerce. Data for Zhejiang province indicate that permanent mobility is largely directed toward urban places, that towns gain more than cities and that rural areas experience migration losses. Permanent migrants to urban places are selective of the better educated. Temporary migration is also urban directed but greater in volume than permanent migration, and places considerable strain on urban infrastructure. Government policies are a key to understanding the migration streams and migrant characteristics. The considerable net movement into cities suggests that strict control of city growth is more difficult to achieve than envisaged by policymakers." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 55, No. 3, Fall 1989, p. 386).     

Selectivity,adaptation, or disruption? A comparison of alternative hypotheses on the effects of migration on fertility: the case of Brazil

This study, based on Brazilian data from 1976, compared the fertility of migrants and stayers at both origin and destination areas. Observed patterns of fertility differentials were then analyzed in terms of 4 hypotheses of fertility behavior focused on processes of socialization, adaptation, selectivity, and disruption. In the study sample, 31% of migrants moved from rural to urban areas, 45% of moves were between urban areas, and 20% of moves were between rural areas. Among rural-to-urban migrants, only 1/3 moved from traditional to modern regions. To uncover the main patterns of migrant and stayer fertility differentials in the study population, the major flows of migrants by origin and destination were disaggregated by recency of migration, education, and age. The overall conclusions were as follows: 1) rural-urban migration flows need to be disaggregated into various modern/traditional cross-classifications (e.g., modern-rural, traditional-urban, frontier-urban) and greater emphasis needs to be placed on rural-urban, urban-urban, and rural-rural flows; 2) no robust quantitative measures of migrant-stayer fertility differentials held across migrant groups, implying that migrants differing in terms of age, education, origin, and destination are likely to behave in significantly variable fashion with regard to stayer standards of fertility behavior; 3) migrant groups with overall lower fertility levels, such as the young and better educated, are less likely to experience significant fertility reduction to bridge the origin/destination fertility gap; 4) rural-to-rural migrants do not appear to experience any lasting fertility reduction even when they move to areas with lower overall fertility rates; 5) urban-to-rural migrants tend to bridge a larger fraction of the uphill fertility gap than rural-to-urban migrants; and 6) there was evidence of partial adaptation for most migrant categories once disruption effects disappear and evidence consistent with the socialization hypothesis (no fertility reduction for at least 1 generation) was apparent for migrants originating in the least developed parts of Brazil, the frontier region, and the traditional-rural region.     

Rural development and urban migration: can we keep them down on the farm?

This study tests the hypothesis that rural development projects and programs reduce rural-urban migration. The author presents various factors in the social theories of migration, including those relating to origin and destination, intervening obstacles such as distance, and personal factors. 3 economic models of migration are the human capital or cost-benefit approach, the expected income model, and the intersectoral linkage model. Empirical studies of migration indicate that: 1) rural areas with high rates of out-migration tend to have high population densities or high ratios of labor to arable land, 2) distance inhibits migration, 3) rural-urban migration is positively correlated with family income level, and 4) selectivity differences in socioeconomic status between migrants and nonmigrants often are grouped into development packages which might include irrigation, new varieties of seed, subsidized credit, increased extension, and improved marketing arrangements. The migration impacts of some of these efforts are described: 1) land reform usually is expected to slow rural out-migration because it normally increases labor utilization in rural areas, but this is a limited effect, 2) migration effects of the Green Revolution technology are mainly in rural-rural migration, and 3) agricultural mechanization may stimulate rural-urban migration in the long run. Development of rural social services migh have various effects on rural-urban migration. Better rural education, which improves the chances of urban employment, will stimulate rural-urban migration, while successful rural family planning programs will have a negative effect in the long run as there will be reduced population pressure on arable land. Better rural health services might reduce the incentive for rural-urban migration as well. It is suggested that governments reconsider policies which rely on rural development to curb rural-urban migration and alleviate problems of urban poverty and underemployment.     

The new rural-urban labor mobility in China: Causes and implications

As the Chinese economy reforms, a huge new floating population of rural-urban migrants is transforming the urban labor force. This article explores some of the most important reasons for the emergence of the floating population in China. We argue that the neoclassical model alone is not adequate to explain the massive rural-urban internal migration underway in China. Instead, ideas drawn from both sociological theories of segmented markets and institutional economics are used to supplement the standard neoclassical explanation. We found that Chinese policy reforms in both rural and urban areas decreased the balkanization of labor markets and opened up employment opportunities for many rural-urban migrants. In rural areas, a set of agricultural market reforms, starting in 1978, increased farm incomes and simultaneously produced a large surplus labor supply. In urban areas, reforms beginning in the 1980s created an effective demand for rural migrants. Of particular importance was the development of a contract labor system and the emergence of a private sector.     

Demographic and socioeconomic determinants of female rural to urban migration in Sub-Saharan Africa

Data from the 1986-90 Demographic and Health Surveys of Burundi, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo, and Uganda were used to examine the impact of fertility, child mortality, and socioeconomic and demographic factors on female rural-urban migration of six months or more duration. Several principles appear to direct the migration of high fertility women. High parity women are free from the male demands for more children. Rural areas lack basic amenities such as schools, health services, and modern housing. Additional children may strain family resources and require additional income from other sources. Husband and kin may have already moved. All data are nationally representative, with the exception of Uganda with an 80% sample. Women living in rural areas two years prior to the survey were included in the sample. Fertility and mortality data pertain to children aged under five years in the period two to seven years before the survey year. Multinomial logit analysis was based on an analytical model developed by Goldstein and Goldstein. High fertility was found to deter female migration to either urban or rural areas. Women, who had one surviving child aged under five years, were significantly less likely to move to urban areas only in Nigeria and Senegal and to other villages in Burundi compared to women without a recent birth. Women with two or more surviving children were significantly less likely (by 43-75%) to move to urban areas in five out of seven countries. Moves to rural areas were less likely by 36-61% in six out of eight countries. The evidence does not suggest that the reason for moves is to advance the children's material or physical well-being. The number of births, particularly in Kenya where fertility is very high in rural areas, acts as a deterrent to migration. Child mortality only constrains moves to urban areas. Unmarried women, single women, better educated women, and adults in their 20s are more likely to move to urban areas.     

Migration,employment and the urban labour market: a study in the Indian Punjab

"Fears are often expressed that migration to the towns is a cause of surplus labour, increased unemployment, and the general decline in the quality of life in urban areas. In a detailed study of the interaction between migration and the urban labour market in an Indian city, the authors investigate these questions and show how the migrants fare as compared with the urban natives. They find no evidence that migrants are confined to marginal employment or contribute disproportionately to urban underemployment. Policy-makers are cautioned against adopting measures to curb migration, which is part of the process of economic growth and social advance, without first making a detailed assessment of its effects."     

Income expectations,rural-urban migration and employment in Africa

This article develops a theoretical framework explaining the influence of economic conditions on rural-urban migration in tropical Africa. The model explains the continued process of migration despite high levels of urban unemployment. A lengthy discussion is devoted to short-, intermediate-, and long-term policies for relieving the urban unemployment problem. It is argued that efforts must be made to reduce the differences between the expectation of urban income and real rural income. No one single policy will slow rural-to-urban migration. The author suggests policies that would eliminate factor-price distortions, restrain urban wages, redirect development toward concentrated and comprehensive programs of rural development, resettle and repatriate unemployed urban migrants, and establish capital-goods industries. The capital-goods industries would develop labor-intensive technologies for agriculture and industry. The theoretical model assumes that migrants make decisions about moving on the basis of an expected income and the expectation of an urban job. It is argued that the urban-rural income differences and the probability of securing an urban job determine the rate and extent of rural-urban migration in Africa. If the migrant has a low probability of finding regular wage employment in the short term, but expects the probability to increase over time, the migrant would make a rational decision to migrate. Policies that operate solely on urban labor demand are considered unlikely to reduce urban unemployment. This model better estimates the shadow prices of rural labor.     

The Changing Spatial Concentration of America's Rural Poor Population*

Abstract This paper documents changing patterns of concentrated poverty in nonmetro areas. Data from the Decennial U.S. Census Summary Files show that poverty rates—both overall and for children—declined more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties in the 1990s. The 1990s also brought large reductions in the number of high‐poverty nonmetro counties and declines in the share of rural people, including rural poor people, who were living in them. This suggests that America's rural pockets of poverty may be “drying up” and that spatial inequality in nonmetro America declined over the 1990s, at least at the county level. On a less optimistic note, concentrated poverty among rural minorities remains exceptionally high. Roughly one‐half of all rural blacks and one‐third of rural Hispanics live in poor counties. Poor minorities are even more highly concentrated in poor areas. Rural children—especially rural minority children—have poverty rates well above national and nonmetro rates, the concentration of rural minority children is often extreme (i.e., over 80% lived in high‐poverty counties), and the number of nonmetro counties with high levels of persistent child poverty remains high (over 600 counties). Rural poor children may be more disadvantaged than ever, especially if measured by their lack of access to opportunities and divergence with children living elsewhere. Patterns of poverty among rural children—who often grow up to be poor adults— suggest that recent declines in concentrated rural poverty may be short‐lived.     

The State Connection in China's Rural‐Urban Migration1

This study explores the role of China's rural local state‐owned and urban state‐owned units in its rural‐urban migration process. Most studies on Chinese migration have focused on migrants moving from rural to urban areas through informal mechanisms outside of the state's control. They therefore treat the Chinese state as an obstructionist force and dismiss its facilitative role in the migration process. By documenting rural local states' “labor export” strategies and urban state units' employment of millions of peasants, this article provides a corrective to the existing literature. It highlights and explains the state connection in China's rural‐urban migration.

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The Effects of Rural-to-Urban Migration on the Poverty Status of Youth in the 1980s1

Abstract The effects of rural-to-urban migration on the poverty status of migrants have not been adequately explored. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine poverty status before and after a rural-to-urban migration, a proportional hazards model of time spent in poverty that begins in rural areas is estimated to determine whether moving to an urban area reduces the time spent in poverty while controlling for individual educational and family characteristics. Results indicate that moving from a rural to an urban area reduces time spent in poverty for white and black women but the effects are not statistically significant for men. Further, to adequately understand the relationship between moving to an urban area and poverty, the analysis examines the effects of moving on the length of time spent not employed.     

Rural Migrants in Shanghai: Living Under the Shadow of Socialism1

This article examines the fate of rural migrants in Shanghai, China's largest metropolis. Relying on data from a representative survey, it provides a profile of recent rural migrants and analyzes the pattern of occupational and income determination among them. The economic status between migrants and local residents is also compared. The authors show that despite a marked income improvement, rural migrants in Shanghai are still segregated from urban residents and argue that the social divide between urban and rural areas created under socialism has continued to function and may contribute to the formation of a dual society in urban China.