中国三大语音通信市场的需求关系估计与需求效应比较分析

运用两阶段固定效应法,本文估计了中国三大语音通信市场的常弹性Marshall需求函数,结果显示：三大语音通信市场的需求都是无价格弹性的,固定本地电话对固定长途电话市场的需求具有互补效应,对移动电话市场的需求具有替代效应;固定长途电话对移动电话市场的需求具有互补效应。三大语音通信市场中,只有固定本地电话市场具有显著的需求收入效应,固定电话用户对固定本地电话市场的需求具有促进作用,对移动地电话市场的需求具有抑制作用,而移动电话用户对移动电话市场和固定长途电话市场的需求皆有促进作用。研究表明,随着时间的推移,人们的消费时尚正在向移动通信方式转变     

组织沟通、人际信任对工作投入影响的机理研究

从组织沟通入手,研究正式和非正式沟通对工作投入的影响,并提出人际信任在组织沟通与工作投入关系间起中介作用。216份数据的实证分析表明,正式沟通显著影响人际信任。非正式沟通显著影响情感信任,对能力信任的影响不显著。人际信任在正式沟通与工作投入关系间起完全中介作用,但在非正式沟通与结果变量间的中介作用未得到验证。研究发现,当加入人际信任变量后,非正式沟通和工作投入的负向关系由不显著变为显著负向相关。     

The Structure of Scholarly Communications Within Academic Libraries

Academic libraries often define their administrative structure according to services they offer, including research services, cataloging and metadata, and acquisitions. Scholarly communications is something of a moving target, though. How are scholarly communication positions defined, what duties do they often include, and how do they fit within the library's administrative structure? Some of the first positions devoted to scholarly communications required JD's and focused on author's rights, copyright, and fair use. Yet other positions recently advertised group scholarly communication librarians within digital scholarship units, which not only create and maintain institutional repositories, they may also publish electronic journals and/or offer services related to data curation. This article provides a brief review of the findings recently published in a SPEC Kit, which focuses on ARL Libraries. The main intention, though, is to provide a wider context of scholarly communication activities across a variety of academic libraries. To do that, a survey of non-ARL Libraries was administered to review relevant positions, library organizations, and the variety of scholarly communication services offered. Lastly, a set of scholarly communication core services is proposed.     

如何测度央行行长的口头沟通信息——一种基于监督学习的文本分析方法

本文以2003年1月至2018年8月中国央行行长所有口头沟通内容为文本基础，生成央行行长沟通这一特定领域的专用词典，进而使用短语数量加权的方法分别构造货币政策沟通指数和经济形势沟通指数。其中，货币政策沟通指数与实际基准利率和存款准备金率的变动具有高度相关性，而经济形势沟通指数可以作为经济基本面的信号器。进一步，本文基于监督学习方法，通过训练子样本词典得到具有倾向的短语及其概率分布，利用文本分类器对新的沟通文本进行自动分类，最终对新样本进行指数计算。子样本的监督学习与全样本信息具有一致的结果，表明本文的央行行长口头沟通测度具有可复制性和可延展性。     

基于预期理论的通信消费者决策行为研究

通信消费者在决策时,由于对套餐信息的不完全了解,再加上心理因素的影响,往往选择比较随意,造成非理性消费。通过分析预期理论的基本思想,研究了通信消费者决策的一般心理变化过程;以消费者近三个月的平均ARPU值为参考点,通过损失承受变量分析了消费者决策过程中的盈利和损失并确定价值函数;通过主观概率确定概率权重函数;构建了基于损失承受能力的通信消费者决策模型;运用心理物理学方法进行了实证分析,结果表明改进的基于预期理论的通信消费者决策模型更贴近实际生活中消费者决策行为。     

央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力研究

信息沟通有助于公众理解和预测货币政策的实际干预,进而提高货币政策有效性。研究中国人民银行的信息沟通对实际政策干预的预测能力需要解决沟通文本的测度问题,同时考虑实际政策干预多工具并用的复杂性。基于此,本文通过文本分析方法提取《货币政策执行报告》的信息,进而考察央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力。研究表明,整体而言,市场对中国人民银行“听其言”有助于“观其行”。具体来看,央行沟通对于直接可控的基准利率和存款准备金率具有持续的预测能力,但对于市场利率的预测能力较差,对于M2增长率的预测甚至存在方向不一致的情况。     

移动通信产业市场结构与绩效关系研究——基于国际面板数据的实证分析

移动通信产业作为典型的政府管制产业,其市场结构与市场绩效的关系是管制部门制定管制政策的重要依据。以SCP范式为分析框架,运用42个国家2004-2009年的季度面板数据,研究了移动通信产业的市场结构与绩效之间的关系。实证研究显示：在控制了其他因素之后,赫希曼-赫菲德尔指数（HHI）与市场绩效呈现正向关系,表明集中的市场结构可以带来垄断利润;市场绩效与用户规模呈现非线性的倒U型关系,但规模经济仅在一定范围内存在,过大的规模反而带来不经济。     

On Secure Communication in a Sensor Network

In this article, we determine a strong threshold for the connectivity between any two arbitrary sensors of a sensor network with secure communication. Also, we derive the almost sure probability bounds for the vertex degree of a typical sensor of a sensor network, with secure communication environment.     

The Triumvirate: Effective Communication Across Publisher,Library, and Discovery Channels

Abstract

In examining data transfer challenges from both librarian and publisher perspectives, this article based on a NC Serials Conference presentation calls for proactive industry communication across publisher, library, and discovery service channels. The authors discuss the importance of collaborative communication across the industry.     

Providing Consulting Experiences Through Role Playing in a Graduate Statistics Course

An effective method for improving the communication skills of graduate students in statistics and biostatistics is to provide consultations with non‐statistical researchers. Unfortunately, those experiences can be difficult to arrange or occur too infrequently to be reliable. The current study sought to help students develop both written and oral communication skills within an existing graduate biostatistics course by having students partake in role‐playing consultations. Though the class size was small, the students felt these activities helped improve their oral and written communication skills, and made them more aware of a biostatistician's role in consulting. There was also modest improvement in the students perceived function as a consulting biostatistician. Simulated consultations can be an effective educational tool for promoting the development of soft skills necessary for developing successful statisticians, can be implemented in existing courses, and do not require reliance upon external collaborators. Embedding these types of exercises within an existing curriculum can also be a cost‐effective alternative for programs that do not have formal consulting training.     

The move-to-partner rule for self-organizing task allocation on a linear array

The well-known Move-to-Front rule for self-organizing lists is modified to a so-called Move-to-Partner rule for dynamic task allocation on a chain of processors. We enable an analysis of the sequence of expected communication costs by reducing their computation to that of three-dimensional arrays of certain probabilities, for which a recursion formula and an asymptotic expansion can be given. The costs depend on the underlying communication profile; two types of such profiles are investigated in more detail, namely a two-dimensional version of Zipf's law, and profiles based on a class structure of tasks. In the considered cases, the Move-to-Partner rule effects fast convergence to a stationary state, but comparably high expected stationary costs.     

Partitioning large-scale artificial society on distributed cluster with statistical movement graph

Distributed agent-based simulation is a popular method to realize computational experiment on large-scale artificial society. Meanwhile, the partitioning strategy of the artificial society models among hosts is playing an essential role for simulation engine to offer high execution efficiency as it has great impact on the communication overheads and computational load-balancing during simulation. Aiming at the problem, we firstly analyze the execution and scheduling process of agents during simulation and model it as wide-sense cyclostationary random process. Then, a static statistical partitioning model is proposed to obtain the optimal partitioning strategy with minimum average communication cost and load imbalance factor. To solve the static statistical partitioning model, this paper turns it into a graph-partitioning problem. A statistical movement graph-based partitioning algorithm is then devised which generates task graph model by mining the statistical movement information from initialization data of simulation model. In the experiments, two other popular partitioning methods are used to evaluate the performance of proposed graph-partitioning algorithm. Furthermore, this paper compares the graph-partitioning performance under different task graph model. The results indicate that our proposed statistical movement graph-based static partitioning method outperforms all other methods in reducing the communication overhead while satisfying the load balance constraint.     

Communication of statistcal concepts: examples in medical collaboration

While effective communication of statistical concepts is important for the enthusiastic adoption of these concepts by collaborators, statisticians are not necessarily trained in the process of communication with collaborators in other substantive fields. It is proposed that increased attention be paid to pedagogical techniques for communicating to our non-statistical colleagues what statisticians have to offer to the design and analysis aspects of a collaborative effort. One approach is to offer examples relevant to our colleagues’ fields when we explain statistical ideas. This paper provides several such examples from the field of neurology, focusing on the issue of sample selection bias and prospective study designs.     

SCOAP3 and Open Access

SCOAP3 is an innovative Open Access initiative for publishing in high-energy physics. The model is viewed by many as a potential solution to multiple issues related to the financial crisis, the peer review system, scholarly communication, and the need to support institutional repositories. This installment of “The Balance Point” presents articles written by three Open Access advocates, outlining the SCOAP3 proposal, benefits of participation, and some of the roles libraries, publishers and scientists can play in making important changes to scholarly communication. Contributors discuss scalability and transferability issues of SCOAP3, as well as other matters of concern.     

SCOAP3 and Open Access

Abstract

SCOAP3 is an innovative Open Access initiative for publishing in high-energy physics. The model is viewed by many as a potential solution to multiple issues related to the financial crisis, the peer review system, scholarly communication, and the need to support institutional repositories. This installment of “The Balance Point” presents articles written by three Open Access advocates, outlining the SCOAP3 proposal, benefits of participation, and some of the roles libraries, publishers and scientists can play in making important changes to scholarly communication. Contributors discuss scalability and transferability issues of SCOAP3, as well as other matters of concern.     

Mining periodic patterns and cascading bursts phenomenon in individual e-mail communication

ABSTRACT

Quantitative understanding of human activity is very important as many social and economic trends are driven by human actions. We propose a novel stochastic process, the Multi-state Markov Cascading Non-homogeneous Poisson Process (M2CNPP), to analyze human e-mail communication involving both periodic patterns and bursts phenomenon. The model parameters are estimated using the Generalized Expectation Maximization (GEM) algorithm while the hidden states are treated as missing values. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed model adequately captures the major temporal cascading features as well as the periodic patterns in e-mail communication.     

汽车玻璃贴膜行为的社会影响调查研究

为了研究汽车挡风玻璃贴膜后是否具有未知的负社会外部性,依据社会困境理论和视觉沟通理论,从行人和机动车关系的角度,提出汽车挡风玻璃贴膜削弱了驾驶人与其他道路使用者之间的视觉沟通,它不仅影响驾驶人自身安全,还对其他道路使用者产生负面影响。通过对224份图片测试问卷和212份行人调查问卷进行分析,结果支持贴膜具有负外部性的观点。据此提出对贴膜行为尤其是深色贴膜行为进行规范的建议。     

A prediction approach for precise marketing based on ARIMA-ARCH Model: A case of China Mobile

The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model presents improved performance in forecasting short-term trends because it considers the dependence of time series and the interference of stochastic volatility. Thus, in this study, we establish ARIMA(0, 2, 1) based on the historical data of large-scale online marketing promotions to realize precise marketing of China Mobile's Ling Xi Voice app in the communication market. We eliminate the auto-regression effect of residual series by establishing the ARIMA model combined with the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model denoted as ARIMA(0, 2, 1) ? ARCH(1), the ARIMA model combined with the generalized ARCH (GARCH) model denoted as ARIMA(0, 2, 1) ? GARCH(1, 1), and the ARIMA model combined with the threshold GARCH model denoted as ARIMA(0, 2, 1) ? TGARCH(2, 1). The performance of the aforementioned models is then compared for validation. Considering the characteristics of the communication markets and the attractive statistical properties of ARIMA, we apply ARIMA(0, 2, 1) to forecast the cumulative number of Ling Xi Voice app users for precise marketing that offers reliable agreement for China Mobile to further advertise and study the market demand. Our analysis contributes toward the development of the current knowledge on forecasting the number of app users in the communication market and provides a new idea to increase the market share for communication operators.     

国际ICT卫星账户的构建及对中国的启示

信息与通信产业在国民经济的发展中的作用十分重要,信息化对社会经济生活的影响也越来越大,这是一个不可逆转的趋势。为了能够准确地核算信息与通信产业的规模以及它对整个国民经济的贡献程度、完善国民经济核算体系,建立完整的信息通信技术（ICT）卫星账户是一个较为可行的方案。本文梳理了ICT卫星账户的发展脉络,归纳了OECD及其他国际组织对ICT卫星账户的研究成果,总结了澳大利亚建立ICT卫星账户的经验,为我国ICT卫星账户的创建提供建议。     

Scientific Periodicals in Iran: A Systems Approach

Scientific periodicals fulfill a significant role in the communication, exchange, and sharing of scientific findings. In recent years, the Iranian Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology (MSRT) has concentrated on non-medical, scientific periodicals. The present paper offers a short history of scientific periodicals and their role in Iran. The authors further examine the current status in the Iranian Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology by using a systems approach. Scientific periodicals in Iran involve four external entities and six major subsystems, including resources, format, content, publication, refereeing, and structure. Investigation of the current failings of the periodicals in the MSRT reveals that the main orientation of the system does not facilitate scientific communication, ease of starting new periodicals, and promotion of natural development of these periodicals. The authors suggest ways to improve the status of scholarly periodicals in Iran.