The negligible influence of premarital cohabitation on marital fertility in current danish cohorts, 1975

This paper studies the influence of premarital cohabitation on marital fertility by applying life table methods to data for cohorts of Danish women born in 1926–1955, collected in retrospective interviews made in 1975. For each five-year cohort, the data have been analyzed by duration of marriage or by duration since previous birth, for women who had no reported births before marriage. Our main empirical results are: (a) that women who married at age 15–19 had higher rates of marital first and second births than those married at ages 20–24, and (b) that premarital cohabitation had very little influence on births of these two first orders in our data.     

Cohabitation and family formation in Japan

This article documents the prevalence, duration, and marital outcomes of cohabiting unions in Japan. It then examines the correlates of cohabitation experiences and also describes differences in the family-formation trajectories of women who have and have not cohabited. Cohabitation has increased rapidly among recent cohorts of women, and cohabiting unions in Japan tend to be relatively short in duration and are almost as likely to dissolve as to result in marriage. Life table analyses demonstrate that the cumulative probabilities of marriage and parenthood within marriage are roughly similar for women who did and those who did not cohabit. The most notable difference is in the pathways to family formation, with women who cohabited more likely both to marry subsequent to pregnancy and to delay childbearing within marriage. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that cohabiting unions in Japan are best viewed as an emerging prelude to marriage rather than as an alternative to marriage or singlehood. We conclude with speculation about the likelihood of further increases in cohabitation in Japan and the potential implications for marriage and fertility.     

Union Instability as an Engine of Fertility? A Microsimulation Model for France

Opportunities for conceiving and bearing children are fewer when unions are not formed or are dissolved during the childbearing years. At the same time, union instability produces a pool of persons who may enter new partnerships and have additional children in stepfamilies. The balance between these two opposing forces and their implications for fertility may depend on the timing of union formation and parenthood. In this article, we estimate models of childbearing, union formation, and union dissolution for female respondents to the 1999 French Etude de l’Histoire Familiale. Model parameters are applied in microsimulations of completed family size. We find that a population of women whose first unions dissolve during the childbearing years will end up with smaller families, on average, than a population in which all unions remain intact. Because new partnerships encourage higher parity progressions, repartnering minimizes the fertility gap between populations with and those without union dissolution. Differences between the two populations are much smaller when family formation is postponed—that is, when union formation and dissolution or first birth occurs after age 30, or when couples delay childbearing after union formation.     

Age at last birth and its components

This paper examines the ways in which the behavior of twentieth century cohorts of American women changed simultaneously in the three components of fertility that determine age at last birth--age at first birth, spacing between subsequent births, and parity progression ratios of subsequent births--to produce changes in the timing of the completion of childbearing. It decomposes changes in the mean age at last birth among cohorts and between whites and nonwhites to changes in these three components. To perform these analyses, we developed and applied a method to estimate the distributions and means of ages and last births, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios from age- and parity-specific fertility rates available from vital statistics data. Results show that the cohorts increased and decreased their age at first birth, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios of lower and higher birth orders in almost every possible combination so as to achieve a relatively young age at final birth.     

Changes in union status during the transition to parenthood in eleven European countries, 1970s to early 2000s

Couples who have children are increasingly likely to have lived together without being married at some point in their relationship. Some couples begin their unions with cohabitation and marry before first conception, some marry during pregnancy or directly after the first birth, while others remain unmarried 3 years after the first birth. Using union and fertility histories since the 1970s for eleven countries, we examine whether women who have children in unions marry, and if so, at what stage in family formation. We also examine whether women who conceive when cohabiting are more likely to marry or separate. We find that patterns of union formation and childbearing develop along different trajectories across countries. In all countries, however, less than 40 per cent of women remained in cohabitation up to 3 years after the first birth, suggesting that marriage remains the predominant institution for raising children.     

Marriage or dissolution? Union transitions among poor cohabiting women

The objective of this paper is to identify the incentives and barriers to marriage among cohabiting women, especially disadvantaged mothers who are targets of welfare reform. We use the newly released cohabitation data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979-2000), which tracks the partners of cohabiting women across survey waves. Our results support several conclusions. First, cohabiting unions are short-lived--about one-half end within one year, and over 90% end by the fifth year. Unlike most previous research, our results show that most cohabiting unions end by dissolution of the relationship rather than by marriage. Second, transitions to marriage are especially unlikely among poor women; less than one-third marry within five years. Cohabitation among poor women is more likely than that among nonpoor women to be a long-term alternative or substitute for traditional marriage. Third, our multinomial analysis of transitions from cohabitation into marriage or dissolution highlights the salience of economically disadvantaged family backgrounds, cohabitation and fertility histories, women's economic resources, and partner characteristics. These results are interpreted in a policy environment that increasingly views marriage as an economic panacea for low-income women and their children.     

Sex preference versus number preference: the case of Korea

The author argues that the effect of sex preference must be disentangled from the effect of number preference in Korea. This study tests--with hazard models--the effect of the number of previous children on the next birth according to the sex composition of previous children. Data were obtained from the 1974 Korean Fertility Survey. This paper also analyzes the timing of childbearing in recent periods in order to determine whether replacement-level fertility is temporary or permanent. The ideal number of children declined from 3.9 children in 1965 to 2.1 in 1991. The age-specific fertility rates for ages 20-24 years declined rapidly during the late 1980s. The fertility rates among women aged 25-29 years and 30-34 years increased during 1985-90. The proportion of fertility among women aged 20-29 years increased from 67.9% in 1975 to 86.6% in 1984. Women born in the late baby boom period of the late 1950s to mid-1960s reached prime reproductive age during the late 1980s and 1990s, but the crude birth rate remained about the same during 1985-92. A higher percentage of women (22.4%) born during 1955-59 remained single in 1990. During 1960-90, the percentage of women aged 20-24 years who were married declined. These trends indicate later age at childbearing and an explanation for the temporary nature of below-replacement fertility in the late 1980s. Korean women did not want to have more than 2 children, and the interval between first and second births increased since 1985. Among pregnancies of parity 2 conceived since 1985, over 90% of women with at least one son ended subsequent pregnancies by abortion compared to only 59% without sons. Hazard models of 1974 data reveal that son preference had an important effect on fertility. Fertility was higher among women with only daughters. Findings suggest that the value of sons must be measured at the societal and not at the individual level.     

China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects

Between 1970 and 1990, China experiencoed a rapid and sharp fertility decline—from total fertility rates of approximately six births to two. The degree to which Chinese fertility has continued to fall after 1990 is controversial. We use survey data from the 1997 National Population and Reproductive Health Survey and from the 2001 Reproductive Health and Family Planning Survey to document recent trends in Chinese fertility. Our estimates provide further evidence that China's fertility is well below‐replacement level at the turn of the twenty‐first century—with TFR levels of approximately 1.5 children per woman. Trends in parity‐specific cohort fertility by age also suggest below replacement completed fertility for cohorts still in the childbearing years. In the article's second section, we identify key components of low period fertility in order to frame our discussion of two questions: 1) in what ways is Chinese low fertility different from/similar to that in other low‐fertility countries? And 2) what are the likely future trends in Chinese fertility?     

Nonmarital cohabitation and fertility in the United States and Western Europe

The increasing popularity of nonmarital cohabitation and a decline in marriage rates in the United States and Western Europe has led to a growing research interest in cohabitation without marriage and its relationship to traditional marriage. This article examines the evidence on the prevalence of cohabitation and the characteristics of cohabitants, and focuses on the childbearing behavior of cohabiting couples who are not married. The evidence to date suggests that in Denmark and Sweden cohabitation is widespread, especially among young people, and childbearing within cohabitational unions is relatively common. In the rest of Western Europe and in the United States, cohabitation is less common and fertility is less frequent. Fertility will be affected to the extent that couples delay having children until they are married. Policy and law concerning cohabitants and their children are changing rapidly. Most of these changes have resulted in a blurring of the distinctions between married and unmarried couples and between legitimate and illegitimate children.     

The educational gradient of childbearing within cohabitation in Europe

Nearly every European Country has experienced some increase in nonmarital childbearing, largely due to increasing births within cohabitation. Relatively few studies in Europe, however, investigate the educational gradient of childbearing within cohabitation or how it changed over time. Using retrospective union and fertility histories, we employ competing risk hazard models to examine the educational gradient of childbearing in cohabitation in eight countries across europe. In all countries studied, birth risks within cohabitation demonstrated a negative educational gradient. When directly comparing cohabiting fertility with marital fertility, the negative educational gradient persists in all countries except Italy, although differences were not significant in Austria, France, and West Germany. To explain these findings, we present an alternative explanation for the increase in childbearing within cohabitation that goes beyond the explanation of the Second Demographic Transition and provides a new interpretation of the underlying mechanisms that may influence childbearing within cohabitation.     

The Untold Story of 50 Years of Adolescent Fertility in West Africa: A Cohort Perspective on the Quantum,Timing, and Spacing of Adolescent Childbearing

Although recent studies examine overall fertility trends in West Africa, few using advanced demographic techniques focus on adolescents. This study explores long‐term patterns of adolescent childbearing in 12 West African countries using 51 Demographic and Health Surveys covering birth cohorts that span 54 years (1940–1994). We employ classic demographic measures as well as disaggregation by early‐ (10–14 years old), middle‐ (15–17), and late adolescence (18–19). Cohort‐based estimates of total adolescent births, parity progression ratios, and rapid repeat birth probabilities reveal little change over time. Most women begin childbearing in adolescence, the progression to additional adolescent births remains common, and the incidence of rapid repeat births is high. In recent cohorts, women exit adolescence with an average of between 0.4 (Ghana) to 1.3 (Niger) births. Contrary to common assumptions, it is women commencing motherhood in early‐ and middle‐, not later adolescence, who account for most West African adolescent fertility.     

What’s happening to the age at first birth in the United States? A study of recent cohorts

This paper analyzes cross-cohort trends in the age pattern of women at first birth in the United States. The analysis involves fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to the age distribution of first birth frequencies for a number of recent white and nonwhite cohorts. Methodologically, the results (a) provide support for the application of the Coale-McNeil marriage model to first birth data, and (b) demonstrate the ability of the model to accurately project first birth fertility for cohorts which have yet to complete their childbearing years. Substantively the results indicate (a) that the proportion of women who will never have a first birth is increasing across cohorts and can be expected to be as high as .25 and .20 for recent white and nonwhite cohorts respectively; (b) that recent nonwhite cohorts have an appreciable number of first births at earlier ages than their white counterparts, as well as a lower mean age at first birth and increasingly less dispersion (across cohorts) in their age at first birth; and (c) that the mean age at first birth and the proportion of first births occurring between ages 25 and 34 is increasing across cohorts of white women but is stable across cohorts of nonwhite women.     

Birth spacing and fertility limitation: a behavioral analysis of a nineteenth century frontier population

Our analysis of changing birth interval distributions over the course of a fertility transition from natural to controlled fertility has examined three closely related propositions. First, within both natural fertility populations (identified at the aggregate level) and cohorts following the onset of fertility limitation, we hypothesized that substantial groups of women with long birth intervals across the individually specified childbearing careers could be identified. That is, even during periods when fertility behavior at the aggregate level is consistent with a natural fertility regime, birth intervals at all parities are inversely related to completed family size. Our tabular analysis enables us to conclude that birth spacing patterns are parity dependent; there is stability in CEB-parity specific mean and birth interval variance over the entire transition. Our evidence does not suggest that the early group of women limiting and spacing births was marked by infecundity. Secondly, the transition appears to be associated with an increasingly larger proportion of women shifting to the same spacing schedules associated with smaller families in earlier cohorts. Thirdly, variations in birth spacing by age of marriage indicate that changes in birth intervals over time are at least indirectly associated with age of marriage, indicating an additional compositional effect. The evidence we have presented on spacing behavior does not negate the argument that parity-dependent stopping behavior was a powerful factor in the fertility transition. Our data also provide evidence of attempts to truncate childbearing. Specifically, the smaller the completed family size, the longer the ultimate birth interval; and ultimate birth intervals increase across cohorts controlling CEB and parity. But spacing appears to represent an additional strategy of fertility limitation. Thus, it may be necessary to distinguish spacing and stopping behavior if one wishes to clarify behavioral patterns within a population (Edlefsen, 1981; Friedlander et al., 1980; Rodriguez and Hobcraft, 1980). Because fertility transition theories imply increased attempts to limit family sizes, it is important to examine differential behavior within subgroups achieving different family sizes. It is this level of analysis which we have attempted to achieve in utilizing parity-specific birth intervals controlled by children ever born.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

What are the determinants of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States?

This paper presents estimates of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States and the determinants of those phenomena. The estimates are derived by fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to survey data on age at first birth and by letting the parameters of the model depend on covariates. Substantively, the results provide evidence that the low first birth fertility rates experienced in the 1970s were due to both delayed childbearing and to increasing levels of permanent childlessness. The results also indicate that (a) delayed childbearing is less prevalent among black women than among nonblack women; (b) education is an important determinant of delayed childbearing whose influence on this phenomenon seems to be increasing across cohorts; (c) education is positively associated with heterogeneity among women in their age at first birth; (d) the dispersion of age at first birth is increasing across cohorts; (e) race has an insignificant effect on childlessness; and (f) education is positively associated with childlessness, with the effect of education increasing and reaching strikingly high levels for the most recent cohorts.     

Marital and fertility careers of Russian women born between 1910 and 1934

Women born in Russia in the early decades of this century grew up in a period characterized by profound societal changes. Their lives were affected by often devastating events, in particular World War II, that ravaged society when they were entering their childbearing years. This note presents a detailed demographic analysis of the marital and fertility careers of women born between 1910 and 1934 based on individual retrospective life histories, collected in the most recent (5 percent) 1994 microcensus of the Russian Federation. It assesses the influence of external events on age at first marriage, widowhood, divorce, childlessness, parity, and age at birth. A comparison with younger cohorts shows that the societal disturbances had strong temporary effects. However, the final outcomes were not influenced very much: completed fertility continued its slow, secular decline.     

Cohort disaggregation analysis of fertility data from a sample survey

Social differentials in cumulative fertility revealed by field surveys in a number of countries typically have been interpreted with the implicit assumption that the timing of childbearing within the reproductive period remains constant. However, the reproductive histories that have been collected in such surveys provide a largely unexploited source of data for the analysis of trends in timing. An analysis by birth cohort of the fertility experience of 592 ever-married women surveyed in San Juan, Puerto Rico, in 1966 shows that significant changes in timing have occurred. Women in the more recent birth cohorts are distinguished by earlier childbearing and sustained higher fertility in consecutive age periods. The inter-cohort differences remain when adjustments are made for duration of time in legal and consensual unions.     

Dissolution of premarital cohabitation in Canada

The rapid increase in the number of unmarried cohabiting couples, indicated by recent evidence, is crucial to our understanding of changing marriage patterns. The levels and patterns of entry into cohabitation have been well documented over the last two decades. but little is known about the outcomes of nonmarital cohabitation. In this study we examine two competing outcomes of cohabitation relationships: union separation and legalization of the union through marriage. Our results show that the hazard rate of union dissolution is affected particularly by gender, fertility status, partner’s marital status, religion, age at start of cohabitation, year cohabitation commenced, and region.     

Measuring change and continuity in parity distributions

Procedures are developed to allocate the change in mean fertility to the change in specific parities or groups of parities. One procedure uses the proportion at each parity and another uses parity progression ratios. Both are based on the delta method for approximating change in a function of several variables. Drawing on an analogy to survival in a life table, the relational logit model is applied to parity progression. This method allows several parity distributions to be synthesized and to have differences summarized with two parameters. The three procedures are applied to successive cohorts of white U.S. women who completed their childbearing between 1920 and 1980.     

The effect of stepchildren on childbearing intentions and births

This article reports on a study of the effect of stepchildren (children from previous unions) on couples' fertility intentions and childbearing behavior using longitudinal data from the National Survey of Families and Households. The results indicated that stepchildren negatively affect childbearing intentions and childbearing risks. Intentions to have a child are weakened by one's own previous biological children and the previous biological children of one's current spouse or partner. This effect varies by the parenting configuration of the couple and gender of the respondent. Among couples with stepchildren, intentions remain high until each partner has had a biological child. Unlike women, men's previous biological children do not affect their intentions of having a child. Stepchildren exert a weak negative effect on couples' childbearing risks, and this effect is mediated by the couples' childbearing intentions. The findings suggest that stepchildren should be incorporated into future models of fertility.     

Multistate cohort models with proportional transfer rates

We present a new, broadly applicable approach to summarizing the behavior of a cohort as it moves through a variety of statuses (or states). The approach is based on the assumption that all rates of transfer maintain a constant ratio to one another over age. We present closed-form expressions for the size and state composition of the cohort at every age and provide expressions for other useful summary measures. The state trajectories, or life course schematics, depict all the possible size and state configurations that the cohort can exhibit over its life course under the specified pattern of transfer rates. The two living state case and hierarchical multistate models with any number of living states are analyzed in detail. Applying our approach to 1997 U.S. fertility data, we find that observed rates of parity progression are roughly proportional over age. Our proportional transfer rate approach provides trajectories by parity state and facilitates analyses of the implications of changes in parity rate levels and patterns. More women complete childbearing at parity 2 than at any other parity, and parity 2 would be the modal parity in models with total fertility rates (TFRs) of 1.40 to 2.61. Increases in parity progression rates to parities 4 and above have little effect on a cohort's TFR, while changes in childlessness have a substantial impact.