A consideration of the effect of immigration reform on the number of undocumented residents in the United States

The volume of immigration to the United States exceeds the amount of immigration to any other nation, but quantification must rely on measurement of population stocks. Comparison of foreign-born population figures for two or more survey dates reveal net immigration but fail to partition the foreign-born population by legal status. This analysis presents national survey data on the foreign-born population in November 1989 for comparison with an independently derived estimate of the legally resident foreign-born population at the same date. The demonstration of a measurable undocumented population residing in the United States is very helpful in evaluating the success of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. Despite the legalization of 1.7 million aliens who provided evidence of undocumented residence since before 1982, and economic sanctions against employers found to hire undocumented workers, an undocumented population persists in the United States that appears to be largely composed of aliens from Latin American countries. Precise measurement of the size of this population is complicated by the uncertainties surrounding the population of approximately one million Special Agricultural Workers admitted under IRCA. The work and residence history of these aliens as well as their future labor sector experiences and residence patterns are not known. Despite efforts to stop undocumented immigration to the United States, undocumented migration, especially across the southern border, appears to have occurred at consistent levels throughout the past fifteen years.This paper reports the general results of research undertaken by Census Bureau staff. The views expressed are attributable to the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Census Bureau.     

Family reunification and the immigration multiplier: U.S. immigration law,origin-country conditions,and the reproduction of immigrants

This paper reports estimates of the total numbers of actual legal immigrants to the United States that result from the family reunification provisions of U.S. immigration law. These immigration multipliers are estimated separately for major visa categories and by gender and are obtained in the context of an analysis of how individual characteristics of immigrants and their origin country conditions affect (a) the decision to migrate to the United States and (b) once admitted, their propensity to remain and to become U.S. citizens. The analyses combine longitudinal data on the 1971 cohort of legal immigrants and data from the 1970 Census Public Use Tapes. The results suggest that the actual multipliers differ importantly by visa category and that they are substantially lower than the potential multipliers and lower as well than previously supposed.     

Migrant networks and the immigrant professional: An analysis of the role of weak ties

Weak ties, particularly those to potential employers, play a more important role than strong ties in the immigration of professionals to the United States. I operationalize network strength through the class of admission variable in the Immigration and Naturalization Service's public use data files,Immigrants Admitted to the United States, 1972–1992. I also examine the differential impact of legislative measures on the availability of strong versus weak ties for four groups of professionals: physicians, nurses, engineers and scientists. Not only do weak ties figure heavily on the immigration experiences of professionals, but those impacts affect women differently than men. Professional women rely more heavily on strong ties than on weak ties when compared with males in their respective professions, with the exception of nursing. These findings suggests a need for further study into the migration experiences of professionals as well as more research into how gendered networks develop among immigrant professionals and how those networks influence (either positively or negatively) immigrant adaptation to United States' society.     

A note on new estimates of the mortality of the extreme aged

This note reports on the utilization of the “extinct generation” method, a procedure that permits a reconstruction of “extinct” population cohorts from the death statistics for a series of years and provides alternative estimates of the mortality of the extreme aged population (persons 85 years of age and over) in the United States during the period 1951–1965. Remarkably close correspondence was found between the annual mortality rates thus derived and figures published by the National Center for Health Statistics. It was concluded that the quality of the mortality rates produced was superior to the official figures but not markedly so. An advantage of the method is the ability to produce rates in detail, such as for five-year age groups, not ordinarily published for the 85 and over population.     

International migration of professionals

Abstract Using chiefly data published by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service this paper presents a statistical summary of the trends in professional immigration into the United States. The proportion of immigrants who are professionals has been steadily increasing during recent decades, and change in immigration laws produced a sharper increase since 1965. The second trend of importance is the increasing proportion of professional immigrants who come from the less developed nations of the world. The effects of immigration on American science and medicine are discussed. Important benefits appear to have accrued to the U.S. The effects on the countries of origin are less beneficial. Finally, the reasons behind the migration of professionals are discussed.     

U.S. population in the 21st century: Which scenario is reasonable?

A major Census Bureau study released in January 1989 has evoked renewed warnings in the media and among some population analysts that the U.S. faces population decline in the next century if it does not increase fertility and/or raise immigration. The report's middle scenario rests on an assumed future total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8, life expectancy of 81.2 years, and net immigration of 500,000 annually. These mid-range assumptions would yield a United States population of 268 million by 2000, peaking at 302 million in 2040 and falling to 292 million by 2080. Questionable assumptions in the report's most likely scenario are discussed. These are:

1. that immigrants bear children at the same rate as their equivalent age and racial group in the United States population.
2. that the high TFR of Hispanics will not raise the overall 1.8 TFR foreseen for whites as the Hispanic proportion of the white population continues to grow.
3. that net yearly immigration will fall to 575,000 in 1990 and 500,000 by 2000. The Census Bureau's "high" assumption of 800,000 net yearly may be more realistic.

The report's low growth scenario projects future population size that is more reassuring than alarming: 264 million in 2000, rising to 288 million in 2030, and falling to 266 million in 2080. Thus, in ninety years the United States would still have 20 million more people than now. While some fear that such slow growth will lower United States influence and bring labor shortages and an aging population, the nation's quality of life would be less at risk with a population of 266 million than with one approaching the one-half billion projected by the Census report's high estimates.     

Net immigration of gainful workers into the united states, 1870–1930

This paper presents a socioeconomic occupational grouping of the foreign-born gainful workers of the United States at each census from 1870 through 1930. This series is then used to estimate the net immigration of gainful workers into the United States during each of the six decades from 1870 to 1930 cross classified by occupational group and sex. The following three conclusions are then drawn from the above two series. First, the socioeconomic position of the foreign-born population of the United States remained relatively stable from 1870 to 1910 but then increased appreciably from 1910 to 1930. Second, although most of the contribution that immigration made to the United States labor force was in the form of semiskilled and unskilled workers, the relative importance of professional, clerical, and skilled workers increased almost continuously from 1870 to 1930. Third, the “new immigration” was not less skilled than the “old immigration”. On the contrary it was actually more skilled than the “old immigration”.     

The mental health demographic profile system: A longitudinal information system

This paper presents the plans currently being developed to make the Mental Health Demographic Profile System into a longitudinal information system useful for research and program planning. Topics discussed are as follows:

1. Development of a data base that contains 1960, 1970, and 1980 small areas (census tracts, MCDs or CCDs, counties). Preliminary tables for 1960,and 1970 will be displayed. Problems of identifying constant small areas for 1960 and 1970 are discussed.
2. Items to be included in the standard profile and items to be available for use (but not part of the standard profile) are discussed.
3. Improvement of access to the data system is discussed. This includes a discussion of the interactive programs being developed and the possible transfer of service and maintenance functions (but not development functions) to the National Center for Health Statistics.

     

Unintended consequences of US immigration policy: explaining the post-1965 surge from Latin America

Immigration reforms in the United States initiated in the 1960s are widely thought to have opened the door to mass immigration from Asia and Latin America by eliminating past discriminatory policies. While this may be true for Asians, it is not the case for Latin Americans, who faced more restrictions to legal migration after 1965 than before. The boom in Latin American migration occurred in spite of rather than because of changes in US immigration law. In this article we describe how restrictions placed on the legal entry of Latin Americans, and especially Mexicans, set off a chain of events that in the ensuing decades had the paradoxical effect of producing more rather than fewer Latino immigrants. We offer an explanation for how and why Latinos in the United States, in just 40 years, increased from 9.6 million people and 5 percent of the population to 51 million people and 16 percent of the population, and why so many are now present without authorization.     

Should occupational codes be obtained from census data or from retrospective survey data in studies on occupational health?

The aim of this study was to assess the quality of occupational history information obtained via retrospective interview questions by comparison with occupational information for the same individuals obtained via a number of censuses. Moreover, morbidity patterns were investigated for different occupational exposure categories that were constructed either on occupational data gathered retrospectively or on data gathered longitudinally through censuses. The study population consisted of 6764 men and 2104 women who were interviewed within the Swedish Survey on Living Conditions. Census data on occupation from 1960, 1970 and 1975 were used for comparison. There was high level of agreement between the two data bases for occupational categories containing workers who were stable in their occupations. The correspondence was better for women. Prevalence rates for different long-term illnesses were almost the same for the categories, no matter which of the data bases was used for constructing the categories. Thus, we have found that self-reported work histories might be a useful way of controlling for occupational exposures in the past.     

Internal Migration of the Foreign-Born: Population Concentration or Dispersion?

Recent analyses of the 1990 census migration data have pointed to the different demographic effects of internal migration and immigration. States and metropolitan areas either have large population gains through immigration or internal migration, but rarely both, leading to what has been labeled as an increasing demographic balkanization of the U.S. population. This paper explores the proposition that the internal migration of the foreign-born (pre-1985 arrivals) is likely to reinforce the demographic effects of immigration. Analysis is based on the five-percent Public Use Microdata file of the U.S. Census, with the demographic effects evaluated at both the state and metropolitan area levels. Distinctions were also made between nineteen separate national origin groups, increasing the detail of the analysis. Despite high internal migration rates and large net migration, there was little change in the overall distribution and concentration of the foreign-born population between 1985 and 1990. More important, however, distinctions were found across the national origin groups. While secondary migration leads to dispersion among some groups, other groups were becoming increasingly concentrated, suggesting that demographic balkanization of the American population is more variable than the literature would suggest.     

Estimates of coverage of the population by sex,race, and age in the 1970 census

Several estimates of total net underenumeration and of net census errors by sex, race (white, Negro-and-other-races, Negro), and age (five-year groups) in the 1960 and 1970 Censuses, for the total population of the United States, derived by the methods of demographic analysis, are presented. The different data, procedures, and assumptions employed in developing the various estimates are described briefly, and the findings are then discussed in terms of a”preferred” set of estimates. The preferred set of estimates of corrected population for 1970 combines estimates for persons under age 35 based directly on birth, death, and migration statistics, estimates for females aged 35 to 64 based on the Coale-Zelnik estimates (white) for 1950 or the Coale-Rives estimates (Negro) for 1960, estimates for males aged 35 to 64 based on the use of expected sex ratios, and estimates for the population 65 and over based on”Medicare” enrollments and expected sex ratios. These estimates indicate an overall net underenumeration of 5.3 million persons or 2.5 percent in 1970, as compared with 5.1 million or 2.7 percent in 1960, and a net underenumeration of 1.9 percent for whites and of 7.7 percent for Negroes in 1970, as compared with 2.0 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, in 1960. As in 1960, undercoverage in 1970 was greatest for Negro males (9.9 percent); net error rates exceeded 12 percent in each age group 20 to 49 and reached 17 to 19 percent at ages 25 to 44. All sex-race groups showed marked increases between 1960 and 1970 for children under ten and marked declines at ages ten to 24. Equally reliable estimates of population coverage cannot be prepared for states and smaller geographic units or for the population of Spanish ancestry.     

Emigration and fertility decline: The case of Barbados

This paper examines the role of emigration in the recent fertility declines which have occurred on the island of Barbados. Barbados with a history of over two centuries of out-migration has experienced in the period 1951–1970 very significant migration loss. In the period 1960–1970 and up to the present fertility has been declining. An important question is what part has this net migration loss of 32,600 had on the reduction of the crude birth rate from 33.6 in 1960 or from 31.5 in 1956 to 20.5 in 1970? Using officially published net migration loss figures and supplementing them with data on Barbadians living overseas, we calculated the crude birth rates which would have occurred had there been no migration loss. We also calculated the numbers of births to be expected if certain age-specific fertility rates were maintained and compared these with the births to residents plus the calculated births to Barbadians overseas. We conclude that in both cases emigration is a very significant contributor to the fertility declines which have occurred and are still underway.     

Quality of life indicators: A preliminary investigation

Concern over the ‘quality of life’ in the United States seems to have increased proportionally with technological advancement and growth in material wealth. Growing public interest in social, economic, political and environmental conditions has led to the search for indicators which adequately reflect the overall ‘health’ of the nation and its citizens' well-being. This paper developed a systematic methodology for assessing social, economic, political, and environmental indicators to reflect the quality of life in the U.S. Nine indicators, including Individual Status, Individual Equality, Living Conditions, Agriculture, Technology, Economic Status, Education, Health and Welfare and State and Local Governments were compiled from more than 100 variables for 50 states and the District of Columbia. Based primarily on 1970 data, QOL indexes were generalized and the states were rated. Comparisons among similar studies were made and analyses among indicators were also performed.     

The new immigrant survey pilot (NIS-P): Overview and new findings about U.S. Legal immigrants at admission

This paper provides an overview of the New Immigrant Survey Pilot (NIS-P), a panel survey of a nationally representative sample of new legal immigrants to the United States based on probability samples of administrative records of the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS). The NIS-P links survey information about immigrants' pre- and post-immigration labor market, schooling, and migratory experiences with data available from INS administrative records, including the visa type under which the immigrant was admitted. Results indicate that the procedures followed for locating, interviewing, and reinterviewing respondents yielded representative samples of new legal immigrants and high-quality data. On the basis of data obtained from the first round of the survey, we present new information never before available on the schooling and language skills of new immigrants and their earnings gains from immigration.     

The effects of formal church affiliation and religiosity on the fertility patterns of Mexican-American catholics

The effects of religion on the fertility patterns of Mexican Americans are examined with two different path models, the Institutional Model using formal affiliation with the Roman Catholic Church as a measure of religion, and the Religiosity Model using a measure of religiosity. Each model, tested separately for husbands and wives, examines the effects of religion on types of contraceptive methods used and on wanted family size. Although the majority of Mexican Americans are Catholics and tend to have large families, religion does not seem to have the same effect on their fertility patterns as on that of other Catholics in the United States. Among the men, neither formal affiliation nor religiosity affect the fertility patterns in any way, while among the women the effect is slight. Considering the Catholic Church’s position on contraceptive usage, it is especially noteworthy that religion does not affect the use or non-use of the more effective means of contraception, a factor contributing to the generally weak association between the measures of religion and wanted family size. The last section attempts a partial explanation of why the results turned out as they did.     

The Census Bureau on Prospects for US Population Growth in the Twenty‐First Century

The U.S. Census Bureau periodically releases projections of the US resident population, detailed by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The most recent of these, issued 13 January 2000, for the first time extend to the year 2100 and also include information on the foreign‐bom population. (Earlier projections were carried up to 2080.) The extensive tabulations presenting the new set, and detailed explanation of the methodology and the assumptions underlying the projections, are accessible at the Census Bureau's web site: http://www.census.gov . A brief summary of some of the main results of these projections is reproduced below from United States Department of Commerce News, Washington, DC 20230. (The Census Bureau is an agency of the Department of Commerce.) Uncertainties as to future trends in fertility, mortality, and net migration over a period of some 100 years are very great, as is illustrated by the massive difference in the projected size of the population for 2100 in the three variants produced. The “middle” projected population figure of 571 million (which represents a growth of some 109 percent over its current level) is bracketed by “lowest” and “highest” alternative projections of 283 million and 1.18 billion, respectively. With somewhat lesser force, the point also applies to the 50‐year time span considered in the well‐known country‐by‐country projections of the United Nations. These projections are also detailed in three variants: low, middle, and high. The UN projections (last revised in 1998) envisage less rapid growth in the United States during the first part of the twenty‐first century than do the Census Bureau's. The projected population figures for 2050 in the three variants (low, middle, and high) are as follows (in millions):

Indicators of societal concern for mentally retarded persons

Mentally retarded persons, as a sub-population found in every culture, provide a test of a society's manner of coping with its deviant members. To obtain an objective device for measuring societal treatment, the present effort was to develop and validate a set of indicators of concern. Although the immediate applicability is at the level of the individual state (within the United States), the instrument is adaptable for comparison across nations as well as the discernment of trends over time. After the crucial first step of conceptualization, the task was to obtain consensual validation from a representative group of authorities. With a few exceptions, the respondents reactions did validate the assumptions and value-orientations of the instrument. Beyond the specific responses item by item, it was possible to infer consensual judgments on a number of underlying themes; and the individual volunteered comments supported the interpretations. The final step was to re-formulate the instrument, on the basis of the responses, in such a way as to permit the gathering of factual and quantitative information. The outcome was a series of 105 items, grouped under eight headings: Living Arrangements; Economic Security; Health Services; Education; Social Services; Work; Legal Rights and Liberties; Government Services and Funding.