基于人口结构的基础教育投资模型构建

研究人口结构与基础教育投资的数量关系对于基础公共教育政策制定具有重要参考意义。首先探讨了纽约、东京及英国等城市与国家的人口结构与基础教育经费投资的关系,找出影响因素并建立基础教育经费支出模型,以此为基础建立适用于北京基础教育经费支出的数学模型,是由基于低生育率、基于高人口密度及基于高人口成长率的三个子模型组成,并提供了参考数据,未来北京市可依据实际人口发展,有选择地使用三个子模型进行基础教育规划。     

Modification and simplification of thurstone scaling method,and its demonstration with a crime seriousness assessment

The paper aims to improve the Thurstone scaling method by reducing the workload of data collection and simplifying the procedures of application. It proposes a hierarchical structure for organizing items that are to be scaled. Instead of making paired comparisons, the respondents would be asked to rank the items. The ranks of the items would then be transformed into paired comparisons. Workload of data collection can hence be greatly reduced. As an alternative to Thurstone model, the use of three models, i.e., linear, exponential and information, to compute serious scores is also demonstrated.     

Measuring Social Capital: Accounting for Nested Data and Subnetworks Within Schools

Social capital is a central concept in social science research, and it is measured in diverse ways. Few measurement approaches take the network structure of complex institutional settings into account. In this study, using data from a large-scale school-based randomized field trial, we develop several factor analytic models to test the validity and reliability of a new survey battery capturing multiple dimensions of social capital in such settings. We demonstrate that it is important to account for institutional and network structure in social capital measures, and we show how social capital can be operationalized as the shared variance between different relational characteristics in complex settings with multiple subnetworks.     

对我国不同地区养老保险基金的短期精算分析

本文运用养老保险精算模型,选择中国养老保险地区差异具有代表性的南部广东省、东北部的吉林省、中西部的陕西省,测算和比较了三个地区的人口和参保人口、债务水平、未来收支等,对不同地区养老保险基金的精算状况作了比较分析,给出了相关的政策建议。     

Vertical foodweb structure of freshwater zooplankton assemblages estimated by stable nitrogen isotopes

Although theoretical foodweb models predict the presence of only three to four trophic categories, estimation of “potential” vertical foodweb structure from species lists and inferred feeding interactions suggest that as many as 7 trophic categories can occur in the pelagic foodwebs of North American glaciated lakes. A compilation of data on the nitrogen isotopic composition of zooplankton from 46 Canadian Shield lakes suggested the average existence of one “realized” trophic category in addition to that of filter-feeding, herbivorous cladocerans. When phytoplankton, planktivorous invertebrates, and plantivorous and piscivorous fish are included, the vertical foodweb structure in the pelagic zones of these lakes are greater than those hypothesized from some theoretical models.     

Population estimates from longitudinal records in otherwise data-deficient settings

Existing methods for estimating population parameters in settings of data deficiency do not provide techniques for analysis of commonly available longitudinal data. In setting where complete population data is unavailable, longitudinal data recorded for only a subset of the total population are often available (e.g., event registers, genealogies). In this article we present and evaluate models which derive population parameters for the population subgroup underlying such longitudinal data. Using the distribution of individual times until first recorded event within a measurement interval, population parameters are estimated which provide basic denominator data for analyzing event occurrence. The models which we derive are especially suited to records which may include migration and population growth trends. The use of the models is demonstrated and evaluated through an application to genealogical records for a nineteenth-century population. Possible extensions of these models and their major limitations are also discussed.     

Measuring Material Hardship among the US Population of Women with Disabilities Using Latent Class Analysis

We use data from the 2002 wave of the National Survey of America’s Families to develop and validate discrete measures of material hardship that can be used to examine the difficulties that vulnerable populations such as people with disabilities have in making ends meet. Using latent class analysis, we estimate two measurement models: multidimensional and omnibus. The multidimensional model provides separate estimates for food, medical, and housing and utilities hardship. The omnibus model is a single model of 11 hardship indicators. Results show three distinct classes of food hardship, three classes of medical hardship, and two classes of housing/utilities hardship. The omnibus model reveals eight classes. Both the multidimensional and omnibus models are largely invariant between women with disabilities and women without disabilities, indicating that valid comparisons can be made between these populations using these classes of hardship. These classes can be utilized in further research on the hardship of women with disabilities to inform the development of policies targeted to alleviate the specific forms of hardship experienced by disabled women.     

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Scales Measuring Trust,and Control-Self-efficacy of Young Iranian Women

This study is among the first to assess Trust and Control-Self-efficacy scales as measures of cognitive social capital in transitional societies such as Iran. 391 Iranian young women aged between 18 and 35 years (M 27.3, SD 4.8) were recruited at ten sites in the city of Shiraz by cluster convenience sampling to participate in this cross-sectional study. The measures used included “Trust” and “Control-Self-efficacy” scales adapted from the British General Household Survey social capital survey. Confirmatory factor analysis with Structural Equation Modelling was used to assess the model adequacy. In addition, reliability and validity of the model was measured. After assessing all possible models to yield the best fit for the data, the “Trust” scale model represents a change of structure from three subscales to four subscales which provided a best fit with the data (χ² = 2.231, RMSEA = 0.056). While for “Control-Self-efficacy” scale with three subscales, five items were deleted in order to have a fit model (χ² = 2.128, RMSEA = 0.054). As a result, the collective evidence suggested that the instrument includes relevant items for its target population and can be a reliable and valid measure for the population of interest.

     

深圳市城市内部人口与社会空间结构研究

“物以类聚,人以群分”,城市内部的人们由于社会、经济、文化等原因而在空间上表现为一定结构。国内外对于深圳市这类新兴移民城市的人口和社会空间结构研究还不多见,通过采用因子分析和空间分析结合的计算机统计分析技术,使用第四次人口普查和第五次人口普查数据,从人口空间结构和社会空间结构两大方面对深圳市的人口展开研究。具体来说,一是深圳市人口数量的分布和变化研究,主要通过人口总量、人口密度和多个人口密度分布模型来测算和分析;二是对于社会空间结构的分析,主要对人口普查数据的人口社会、经济、文化属性进行因子分析,提取出若干个主因子,然后根据各个街道这些因子的得分情况进行聚类分析,得到深圳市社会空间结构的模型。     

Assessing structural change in U.S. migration patterns: a log-rate modeling approach

"A set of log-rate models is proposed to transform Rogers and Wilson's accounting-based migration models into statistics-oriented migration models. This study demonstrates not only how log-rate models can be used to replicate results generated from Rogers-Wilson's cohort and multi-region mobility models, but also how log-rate models can be used to make statistical inferences and to derive more parsimonious models. Estimation issues and model fit are discussed, and case studies with U.S. mobility and interregional migration data are provided. The flexibility of log-rate models is emphasized, and possible uses for such models, such as the testing of various hypotheses and migration projection, are explored. Potential applications and limitations of log-rate models are also discussed." (EXCERPT)     

Modeling interregional migration flows: Continuity and change

This paper addresses the question of how to formally represent the spatial structure of an observed origin‐destination‐specific pattern of interregional migration flows. Such a representation allows an analyst to compare the spatial structures of different migration regimes and contrast their changes over time. It also facilitates the indirect estimation of migration flows, in the absence of such data, by allowing the analyst to impose a particular age or spatial structure when observed flow data are inadequate, partial, or completely nonexistent. In this paper, we focus on the level and allocation aspects (or the generation and distribution components) of age‐specific interregional migration flows. We find that over time these flows exhibit strong regularities that can be captured by generalized linear models, which can then be used in situations where data are inadequate or missing to indirectly estimate interregional migration patterns.     

Count data models for demographic data

"This paper deals with the estimation of single equation models in which the counts are regressed on a set of observed individual characteristics such as age, gender, or nationality....We propose a generalized event count model to simultaneously allow for a wide class of count data models and account for over- and underdispersion. This model is successfully applied to German data on fertility, divorces and mobility." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Count data models for demographic data∗

Key demographic variables, such as the number of children and the number of marriages or divorces, can only take integer values. This papers deals with the estimation of single equation models in which the counts are regressed on a set of observed individual characteristics such as age, gender, or nationality. Most empirical work in population economics has neglected the fact that the dependent variable is a nonnegative integer. In the few cases where this feature was recognized, the authors advocated the use of the Poisson regression model. The Poisson model imposes, however, the equality of conditional mean and variance, a restriction which is often rejected by the data. We propose a generalized event count model to simultaneously allow for a wide class of count data models and account for over‐ and underdispersion. This model is successfully applied to German data on fertility, divorces and mobility.     

Formal models and methods for the analysis of kinship and household organization

This paper discusses the use of formal models for analyzing kin-group and household organization. The authors begin by presenting a conceptual framework that relates the supply of kin to rules of household formation, demographic constraints, and observed household structure. This framework is used to evaluate an array of techniques and models of kinship and households. Kin relations and household structures can be described using a unifying model designed to identify the dynamic of a system of states out of and into which the units of analysis can move. The behavior of the system is identified through knowledge of transition rates. It is then possible to link such transition rates to coarse indicators of the system, such as proportions occupying a state and distribution of the units by state. Analytic, macro-, and microsimulation models are just alternative ways of linking a state-space and measures of transition rates to final indicators or outcomes. No model can avoid addressing the independence, homogeneity, and time-invariance assumptions, or the 2-sex problem.     

旧城改造对城市社会空间分异的影响——以武汉市为例

旧城改造对于塑造我国城市社会空间结构有着重要的影响,这种影响主要通过政府、企业和市民这三个主体的相互作用来体现。不同主体对不同社会群体的影响不同,使得不同社会群体在城市不同空间范围内聚集,从而导致城市社会空间分异。在运用因子生态分析法界定2000年武汉市社会空间的基础上,通过建立多元线性回归模型,研究不同主体对城市社会空间分异的影响。研究发现政府对办事人员聚集区、外来人口聚集区、离退休人员聚集区、人口快速增长区的形成产生显著影响;企业对离退休人员聚集区、人口快速增长区和农业人口聚集区的形成具有一定的影响;而市民则对办事人员聚集区、离退休人员聚集区、人口快速增长区的形成具有一定的影响。这反映了旧城改造过程中政府为主导、企业和市民有限参与的现实状况。     

Gender scripts and age at marriage in India

Research on marriage in developing countries has been somewhat narrow in scope because of both conceptual and data limitations. While the feminist literature recognizes marriage as a key institutional site for the production and reproduction of gender hierarchies, little is known about the processes through which this relationship operates. This article uses data from the newly collected India Human Development Survey 2005 for 27,365 ever-married women aged 25–49 to explore ways in which different dimensions of gender in Indian society shape the decisions regarding age at marriage. We explore the impact of three dimensions of gender: (1) economic factors, such as availability of wage employment, dowry expectations, and wedding expenses; (2) indicators of familial empowerment, such as women’s role in household decision making and access to and control over resources; and (3) markers of gender performance, such as observance of purdah and male-female separation in the household. Results from hierarchical linear models confirm the importance of markers of gender performance but fail to demonstrate a large role for economic factors and familial empowerment.     

Uncertainty about children's survival and fertility: A test using indian microdata

In this paper we present a non altruistic model of demand for children in the presence of uncertainty about children's survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. Theoretical predictions relating to the change in the mean and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) survey. Different models for count data variables, such as Poisson and hurdle models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children's survival in determining parental choices. This shows that realized or expected children's death is not the only link between fertility decision and children's mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed. Received: 20 August 1998/Accepted: 19 July 1999     

Modelling and analyzing density-dependent population processes: Comparison between wild and laboratory strains of the bean weevil,Callosobruchus chinensis (L.)

Three models were constructed for analyzing the population characteristics ofC. chinensis on stored beans; model A describing the whole reproductive process with a single equation, model B describing the three age-specific processes (oviposition, egg survival and larval survival) with separate equations, and model C which describes all these processes not for the whole habitat but for the individual beans comprizing it. The logit equation was employed here as a common basis to describe the density-response relationship involved. All three models showed very good fit to the experimental data obtained for both laboratory and wild strains of the weevil. The parameter values characterizing the population dynamics were, however, widely different between the two strains; the laboratory one which had been reared for some 500 generations showed significantly higher reproductive capacity, less sensitive and gentler response to crowding in both adult and egg stages, and more uniform egg distribution among individual beans, as compared with the wild strain newly introduced. Sensitivity analyses using these models suggested that these changes in population characteristics have been attained by the process of domestication or adaptation to stable laboratory conditions through a long period of time. This process seemed in effect to have optimized the population's performances in the laboratory environment. Evolutionary significance of such optimization was discussed with reference to the selection pressure which may have acted upon individuals.     

Women,Demography, and Politics: How Lower Fertility Rates Lead to Democracy

Where connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables’ influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics—namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables—female-related predictors, in particular—have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.     

Limited Income Mobility: Empirical Evidence from Korea

Longitudinal child cohort studies collect large amounts of information about children’s families and the types of activities they participate in. With such a broad array of information to select from, researchers investigating aspects of the family environment may be overwhelmed by the choices available if they only need summary measures reflecting domains of the family environment. Using data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, this study aimed to derive and assess summary indices of three domains of the family environment, including a Family Stress Index, Home Education Index and Parenting Index. Indices were derived by identifying a set of candidate indicators, dichotomising the indicators to determine elements of risk, then averaging across the dichotomised items to create measures that captured cumulative risk. Assessments of the three indices suggest that the measures are consistent across time, and have good predictive validity with socioeconomic measures and assessments of children’s social-emotional wellbeing and learning outcomes. Structural equation models estimating children’s outcomes suggested that models using the indices had comparable model fit to models using the broader array of variables used to construct the indices, but the Parenting Index in particular explained less variation in children’s problem behaviour outcomes. Overall, the family environment indices derived in this study may be useful for researchers wishing to simplify complex models or explore the circumstances of children exposed to multiple risks, but less useful in analyses where the primary goal is to explain variance in children’s developmental outcomes.