The changing impact of white migration on the population compositions of origin and destination metropolitan areas

Increased migration to the sunbelt and the metropolitan-nonmetropolitan "turnaround" represent departures from long-standing redistribution trends. Although these patterns have been examined from a number of perspectives, their consequences for individual metropolitan areas have not yet been brought to light. In the present study, stream-disaggregated data for the late 1950s and late 1960s are employed to assess the impact of recent migration on the sizes and compositions of white populations in thirty-one large metropolitan areas. Most large northern SMSAs have been experiencing the "new" migration patterns since the late 1950s. They have incurred net out-movements of whites to both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. In their exchanges with nonmetropolitan areas, however, they have managed to retain greater numbers of college graduates and professional workers. Southern and western SMSAs did not sustain losses to nonmetropolitan areas during either period. They did appear to gain both total and high status population as a result of interregional metropolitan redistribution.     

The transition to nonmetropolitan population deconcentration

A major aim of this study is to address our lack of understanding of rural-urban population change within nonmetropolitan counties of the United States. Specifically, we (a) examine trends between 1950 and 1975 in differential rural and urban growth rates within nonmetropolitan counties, and (b) examine the relationship between county location/function and within-county deconcentration. We show that the post-1970period has not simply marked the net shift of population from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas, but has also ushered in a pattern of population deconcentration within most nonmetropolitan areas. It is also clear that traditional ecological and economic base variables have been of diminishing utility in explaining deconcentration during the 1970s, suggesting that deconcentration is now evident in nonmetropolitan counties characterized by a broad spectrum of economic and sociodemographic traits.     

The identification of recreational counties in nonmetropolitan areas of the USA

Nonmetropolitan counties in the USA with significant concentrations of recreational activity are identified using a combination of quantitative and contextual indicators. The 285 counties identified as recreational encompass 12 percent of the nonmetropolitan counties and 15 percent of the 1990 nonmetropolitan population. Population growth in such counties has consistently exceeded that in other nonmetropolitan areas as well as that in metropolitan areas. Net migration accounted for most of the population growth in such counties during the 24 years considered. The revenue and expenditure patterns of local governments in recreational counties differs from those elsewhere suggesting significant policy concerns.     

The impact of migration on the nonmetropolitan population age structure, 1960–1990

In this paper we examine the short-run impact of migration on the age composition of nonmetropolitan areas. Changes in age structure can have important consequences at the local level, and the influence of migration is particularly notable because it is highly age-graded, with different migration patterns found in various types of nonmetropolitan communities. Here we compare the impact of migration on age structures in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas across the last three decades. Within nonmetropolitan areas we also compare counties with colleges, commuting counties, agricultural counties and retirement counties. We conclude that several factors influence the impact of migration on age structure. Impacts will be greater in smaller than in larger population groups, and in areas that specialize in economic functions that impinge on a particular age group. But in general, migration adds young people to metropolitan areas and older people to nonmetropolitan areas. Differential impacts may be lessened in periods, such as 1970–80, when substantial population redistribution was underway. Nevertheless, prior and present fertility and mortality trends, and the cumulative history of migration well exceed the impact of migration on age in any ten-year interval.Abbreviations Metro Metropolitan - Nonmetro Nonmetropolitan An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Western Regional Science Association, Wailea, Hawaii, 22 February 1993.     

Recent nonmetropolitan population change in fifty-year perspective

Post-1970 nonmetropolitan population shifts are examined by dividing nonmetropolitan counties into ten cohorts based on the duration and direction of consistent population change since 1920. Analysis indicates that the post-1970 gains reported by Beale are pervasive in nonmetropolitan America, occurring even in a majority of the counties that lost population consistently from 1920 to 1970.Growth was greatest in counties adjacent to metropolitan areas but was more than urban spillover effect. In a clear break with traditional patterns, net inmigration contributed significantly to overall population gain and was particularly strong among counties without an urban center. The rate of natural increase continued to slow in the post-1970 period, with natural decrease becoming common among counties with protracted histories of population decline.     

Metropolitan and nonmetropolitan migration streams: 1935–1980

Results based on an analysis of migration streams involving the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sectors and covering a longer time interval than previously possible indicate that efforts to describe changes in the volume of movements connecting these sectors could benefit from greater attention to other related streams as well as existing patterns of population concentration. The metropolitanization process continues but is now being affected substantially by regional redistribution trends. Regional differentials in the size of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan migration streams are declining but are still substantial, so an equilibrium balance between the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sectors will probably not occur in the immediate future.     

Metropolitan deconcentration: Subareal inmigration and central city to ring moiillty patterns among southern SMSAs

The analysis of in-migration streams and subareal residential mobility patterns for moves made between 1965 and 1970in SMSAs in the East South Central and South Atlantic census divisions indicates that, despite their historical contexts, these metropolitan areas now show spatial differentiation patterns similar to those of the great cities of the Northeast. The white population has increased in ring areas primarily because of in-migration rates; the black population in the central cities has increased primarily because of in-migration rates to those subareas. Little variation in these patterns across SMSA size categories was apparent.     

Motivations for the inmigration component of population turnaround in nonmetropolitan areas

Data from a 1977 survey of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan origin households migrating to 75 high net inmigration counties of the Midwest are examined to consider the motivational basis for the inmigration component of post-1970 nonmetropolitan migration trends. Findings suggest that the major stated motivations for leaving places of origin, especially among those from metropolitan areas, are "quality of life" considerations. Abouth a fourth of the metropolitan origin migrants' and half of the nonmetropolitan origin migrants' reasons are job-related. Anti-urban push and pro-rural pull responses are prevalent among migrants from metropolitan areas. Subsequent analysis of reasons for leaving metropolitan residences suggests consistency with other objective variables. Among households with a working-age head, those leaving for "quality of life" reasons came disproportionately from the largest metropolitan centers and went to the smallest towns. Those moving for non-employment reasons are not more likely to have taken an initial income loss, though they are less likely to experience immediate income gains.     

The urban distribution of headquarters and branch plants in manufacturing: Mechanisms of metropolitan dominance

The proposition that ties between home offices and branch plants constitute a form of metropolitan dominance is evaluated by examining the dependence of these two forms of manufacturing organization on selected characteristics of the 110 largest SMSAs. The predictor variables in the analysis are measures of industry composition, population size, and regional location, factors which past research has shown to be indicators of rank in an urban hierarchy of dominance. The data generally support the hypothesis in revealing that headquarters locate in large, diversified urban areas, whereas branch plant employment is highest in small, economically specialized places. Both headquarters and branch plant activity proved to be associated with the percent of the SMSA labor force employed in manufacturing, however. The suggestion drawn from earlier studies, that specialization in metropolitan financial-commercial functions should be related to the headquarters' presence, receives only mixed and ambiguous support in this investigation.     

Family size composition differentials between central city-suburb and metropolitan-nonmetropolltan migration streams

During the migration intervals 1965–1970, 1970–1975, and 1975–1979, families that migrated from Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) to nonmetropolitan areas and from central cities to suburban rings were larger in mean size than families that composed the respective counterstreams. Mean family sizes declined sharply for all groups throughout the period, but absolute differentials between opposing streams increased slightly. In terms of the selective attraction of families by size, nonmetropolitan net in-migration was very similar to suburbanization within SMSAs. A considerable portion of recent nonmetropolitan net gains resulted from the exchange of larger in-migrant families for smaller outmigrant families.     

Metropolitan America: beyond the transition

Americans have always gravitated toward cities, and for most of this century, urban growth has continued at a fast pace. During the 1970s, however, nonmetropolitan area grew at the expense of many large metropolitan areas, especially those in the industrial Northeast and Midwest. New patterns of population distribution appeared to be emerging. This Bulletin analyzes the trends of the 1970s, the shifting patterns of the 1980s, and likely prospects for future growth in metropolitan areas. The "rural renaissance" resulted from a combination of forces, including improved infrastructure in nonmetropolitan area, growing demand for retirement and recreation spots, the entrance of the large baby-boom cohort into the labor force, and the economic situation both at home and abroad. Some of these same forces have shifted settlement patterns in the 1980s, helping create "World Cities," like New York and San Francisco, and regional "Command and Control Centers" such as Atlanta and Minneapolis-St. Paul, that will continue to gain in both population and influence. Yet nonmetropolitan areas still attract retirees and other former urbanites. The distribution of minority groups among metropolitan populations is also undergoing significant change. The heavy immigration of Hispanics and Asians in the 1980s has increased the proportion of these groups, particularly in metropolitan areas in the South and West. More black Americans are moving to the suburbs formerly dominated by whites. Yet large pockets of poverty--of both black and whites--remain in both suburban and central city areas.     

Components of change in migration and destination-propensity rates for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas: 1935–1980

This article focuses on components of change in out-migration and destination-propensity rates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. The results indicate that changes in subgroup-specific rates were the driving force behind the changing patterns between and within these two areas. Composition effects played a secondary role, mainly counteracting the negative impact of changing rates. Although the rate of change in out-migration from metropolitan areas has been reduced and out-migration from nonmetropolitan areas declined during the most recent period, the propensity to select metropolitan areas increased over the period studied. Finally, rate-specific changes vary by age and education, indicating a change in migration's impact on population composition at origin and destination.     

Changing patterns of migration between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States: Recent evidence

Data from the 1975 Current Population Survey confirm that, during 1970–1975, there was a reversal of the traditional net migration stream between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States. During this period, there was net in-migration of 1,600,000 persons to nonmetropolitan areas, in contrast to net out-migration of 350,000 persons from these areas in 1965–1970. Reversal was caused by a 12 percent decrease in the number of nonmetropolitan out-migrants and a 23 percent increase in the number of SMSA residents moving to nonmetropolitan territory over 1965–1970 levels. While some changes in the size of migration streams were due to changes in age structures and population bases in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, they were caused primarily by real shifts in outmigration propensities at practically all ages in both areas.     

National estimates of racial segregation in rural and small-town America

The objective of this paper is to provide, for the first time, comparative estimates of racial residential segregation of blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan places in 1990 and 2000. Analyses are based on block data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. decennial censuses. The results reveal a singularly important and perhaps surprising central conclusion: levels and trends in recent patterns of racial segregation in America's small towns are remarkably similar to patterns observed in larger metropolitan cities. Like their big-city counterparts, nonmetropolitan blacks are America's most highly segregated racial minority--roughly 30% to 40% higher than the indices observed for Hispanics and Native Americans. Finally, baseline ecological models of spatial patterns of rural segregation reveal estimates that largely support the conclusions reached in previous metropolitan studies. Racial residential segregation in rural places increases with growing minority percentage shares and is typically lower in "new" places (as measured by growth in the housing stock), while racially selective annexation and the implied "racial threat" at the periphery exacerbate racial segregation in rural places. Our study reinforces the need to broaden the spatial scale of segregation beyond its traditional focus on metropolitan cities or suburban places, especially as America's population shifts down the urban hierarchy into exurban places and small towns.     

Defining and measuring poverty in the nonmetropolitan United States using the survey of income and program Participation

Because the poor historically have been more prevalent in nonmetropolitan than metropolitan areas in the United States, issues related to poverty (including its definition and measurement) are important to nonmetropolitan people. This study uses the unique monthly data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to define poverty in different ways. How poverty is defined affects both the measured extent of nonmetropolitan poverty and the groups who are included among the nonmetropolitan poor. Regardless of how poverty is measured, however, nonmetropolitan areas have disproportionately more poor than metropolitan areas. In addition, the nonmetropolitan poor are more likely to be white, aged, disabled, and members of married-couple households than the metropolitan poor under all definitions considered. None of the definitions examined is intrinsically superior. The choice of a definition to use depends largely on the research problem under consideration.     

City-suburban destination choices among migrants to metropolitan areas

An analysis of destination choices among metropolitan bound migrants in an already highly urban society is a means toward gauging trends in the urbanization process. The results of this paper indicated that destination choices were strongly influenced by SMSA size, with larger SMSAs and particularly their suburban rings attractive to migrants. This pattern suggested the further growth of the larger SMSAs, to the detriment of those smaller in size. In addition, the varied status of migrants entering the ring pointed toward its increased heterogeneity. Yet, among small SMSAs, the central city received more and higher-status migrants than the ring. Here, destination choice was also linked to similarity to the migrant's past residence. Regional differences emerged, and a closer examination of small and very large SMSAs suggested that destination choices were influenced by previous patterns of urban growth.     

Multiple Meanings of Minority Concentration: Incorporating Contextual Explanations into the Analysis of Individual-Level U.S. Black Mortality Outcomes

Prior research on mortality for U.S. blacks focuses on the detrimental effects of minority concentration and residential segregation in metropolitan areas on health outcomes. To date, few studies have examined this relationship outside of large U.S. central cities. In this paper, we extend current research on the minority concentration and mortality relationship to explain the rural advantage in mortality for nonmetropolitan blacks. Using data from the 1986–1994 linked National Health Interview Survey/National Death Index, we examine the rural-urban gap in mortality for U.S. blacks. Our findings indicate that blacks in nonmetropolitan areas experience a lower risk of mortality than metropolitan central city blacks after indicators of socio-economic and health status are controlled. Our findings also point to the importance of accounting for contextual factors. Net of individual level controls, minority concentration exerts differential effects across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, such that nonmetropolitan black residents experience a lower risk of mortality in high minority concentration areas than blacks in metropolitan central city areas. This finding suggests a reconceptualization of the meaning for minority concentration with respect to studies of health outcomes in nonmetropolitan communities.     

Population Trends in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan America: Selective Deconcentration and the Rural Rebound

This study uses revised annual population estimates that incorporate adjustments from the 2000 Census to backcast demographic change for U.S. counties during the 1990s. These data are supplemented with new post-censal population estimates for 2001–2003. We use these data to examine demographic trends in the late 1990s and first years of the new century. Our findings are consistent with a model suggesting that a selective deconcentration of the U.S. population is underway. Our findings also confirm the occurrence of the rural rebound in the first half of the 1990s and a waning of this rebound in the late 1990s. Post-censal data also suggest a modest upturn in nonmetropolitan population growth rates in 2001–2003.     

On the ‘Urbanness’ of Metropolitan Areas: Testing the Homogeneity Assumption, 1970–2000

In recent decades, population dynamics, have made definitions of what localities are rural or urban somewhat unclear. The vast majority of demographic work has simply used metropolitan classifications with various forms of a non-metropolitan residual (e.g., adjacent to metro versus non-adjacent). The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) periodically redefines metropolitan areas, which makes temporal comparisons difficult. In fact, some demographers have offered the idea that, due to these shifting reclassifications, the so-called “rural rebound” is a misnomer, in that non-metropolitan counties that transitioned to metropolitan status were, in fact, already more ‘urban’ than those that did not become reclassified as metropolitan (Johnson et al 2005). This argument depends largely on the assumption of homogeneity in rural or urban ‘character’ in those counties. Following arguments by others (Wilkinson 1991; Isserman 2001; Bogue 1950), we take population and land use into account to examine whether these transitional counties were more or less urban than comparable others, all at the county level for the contiguous 48 states for 1970–2000. Our results show that adjacent non-metropolitan counties that were later reclassified as metropolitan were indeed characterized by a larger population and heavier urban land cover than those not making this transition. However, the results also show that metropolitan areas were also quite heterogeneous in terms of traditionally rural activities. A discussion of the homogeneity assumption in demographers’ conceptualization of metropolitan areas is included.     

Metropolitan Structure and Neighborhood Attainment: Exploring Intermetropolitan Variation in Racial Residential Segregation

Using data from the 1981, 1991, and 2001 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and several decennial censuses, we examine how characteristics of metropolitan areas are associated with black and white households’ neighborhood racial composition. Results from hierarchical linear models show that about 20% to 40% of the variation in the percentage of households’ tract population that is non-Hispanic white or non-Hispanic black exists across metropolitan areas. Over time, white households’ exposure to non-Hispanic white neighbors has declined, and their exposure to non-Hispanic black neighbors has increased; the reverse trends are observed for blacks. These trends cannot be attributed to changes in the ecological structure of metropolitan areas. Blacks have fewer white neighbors in large metropolitan areas containing sizable minority populations, and blacks have more white neighbors in metropolitan areas with high government employment. Whites have more black neighbors in metropolitan areas with high levels of government employment and ample new housing; whites have fewer black neighbors in metropolitan areas with a high level of municipal fragmentation. The association between metropolitan-area percentage black and tract percentage black is weaker among whites than among blacks, suggesting that whites are especially motivated to self-segregate in metropolitan areas with large black populations.