Has Income Segregation Really Increased? Bias and Bias Correction in Sample-Based Segregation Estimates

Several recent studies have concluded that residential segregation by income in the United States has increased in the decades since 1970, including a significant increase after 2000. Income segregation measures, however, are biased upward when based on sample data. This is a potential concern because the sampling rate of the American Community Survey (ACS)—from which post-2000 income segregation estimates are constructed—was lower than that of the earlier decennial censuses. Thus, the apparent increase in income segregation post-2000 may simply reflect larger upward bias in the estimates from the ACS, and the estimated trend may therefore be inaccurate. In this study, we first derive formulas describing the approximate sampling bias in two measures of segregation. Next, using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the bias-corrected estimators eliminate virtually all of the bias in segregation estimates in most cases of practical interest, although the correction fails to eliminate bias in some cases when the population is unevenly distributed among geographic units and the average within-unit samples are very small. We then use the bias-corrected estimators to produce unbiased estimates of the trends in income segregation over the last four decades in large U.S. metropolitan areas. Using these corrected estimates, we replicate the central analyses in four prior studies on income segregation. We find that the primary conclusions from these studies remain unchanged, although the true increase in income segregation among families after 2000 was only half as large as that reported in earlier work. Despite this revision, our replications confirm that income segregation has increased sharply in recent decades among families with children and that income inequality is a strong and consistent predictor of income segregation.     

中国城镇居民家庭储蓄水平队列效应分析

利用中国家庭收入调查（ CHIP）数据对城镇居民家庭的储蓄率进行了队列效应的实证研究。分析结果表明,属于不同队列的城镇家庭在储蓄水平上都呈现出相似的“U”型年龄分布,即中年家庭（40－50岁）储蓄率低,年轻家庭（20－40岁）和退休家庭储蓄率较高,这一现象与其他国家的实证研究结果有显著不同。本文认为,中国城镇居民储蓄率的“U”型年龄分布主要是由人口与经济的高速增长带来的：人口高速增长带来的队列规模效应使得面对更大竞争压力的年轻人口储蓄率较高,而经济水平持续增长带来的消费水平增长预期使得接近退休家庭储蓄水平重新上升。     

Saving,Sharing, or Spending? The Wealth Consequences of Raising Children

This study uses 1986–2012 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort data to investigate the relationship between raising children and net worth among younger Baby Boomer parents. I combine fixed-effects and unconditional quantile regression models to estimate changes in net worth associated with having children in different age groups across the wealth distribution. This allows me to test whether standard economic models for savings and consumption over the life course hold for families at different wealth levels. My findings show that the wealth effects of children vary throughout the distribution. Among families at or below the median, children of all ages were associated with wealth declines, likely due to the costs of child-rearing. However, at the 75th percentile and above, wealth increased with the presence of younger children but decreased after those children reached age 18. My results, therefore, provide evidence for a saving and investment model of child-rearing among wealthier families but not among families at or below median wealth levels. For these families, the costs of raising children largely outweighed motivations for saving.     

户籍管制放松、就读地选择与进城家庭教育支出

本文利用中国家庭收入项目调查数据(CHIP2007),运用Two-Part模型研究户籍管制放松是否影响以及如何影响有7~16岁在读子女进城家庭的教育支出行为。研究发现,户籍管制放松会影响进城家庭子女就读地选择;对于有子女在城市就读的进城家庭,户籍管制放松对其教育支出水平的影响取决于家庭收入,放松户籍管制将会降低低收入进城家庭的教育支出份额,但会提高高收入进城家庭的教育支出份额,具体影响大小因家庭收入水平的不同而存在差异;在总样本均值处,户籍管制放松1个百分点,进城家庭教育支出将减少1.3945个百分点。在推进新型城镇化建设的背景下,放松户籍管制的意义不仅在于促进教育公平,更在于加快人口城镇化步伐、改善进城家庭消费结构和提振国内消费。     

Gender and savings in rural India

In this study we use data from rural India to examine the impact of the birth of a boy relative to the birth of a girl (i.e., the “gender shock”) on the savings, consumption and income of rural Indian households. We find that the gender shock reduces savings for medium and large farm households, although there is no evidence that the shock affects savings for the landless and the small farm households. We also estimate the effect of the shock on income and consumption for the former group in order to determine the source of the drop in savings. The results indicate that the fall in savings subsequent to the gender shock arises from its effect on consumption in the year following the birth, and from its effect on income in other years. Received: 3 September 1996 /Accepted: 15 July 1997     

One-child families also have possibilities for getting rich]

The common people believe that families with more children have a larger labor force and more income, and that families with 1 child have a smaller labor force and thus less income. Recent findings from Zhangqiu County of Shandong Province show that families with only 1 child have 67.8% more income than families with 2 children. The reason is that families with 1 child have fewer dependents and the financial burden for them is less. When the husband goes to work, the wife, who is taking care of only one child, will have more time and energy for part-time work to be done at home to increase income. In addition, if a family has fewer children, expenditures are also lower, and this is a beneficial condition for becoming wealthy. Furthermore, the nation offers a great many financial privileges and special treatment to families with 1 child, such as tuition exemptions, medical and health care allowances, more grain quotas, and better marketing arrangements for products from households with 1 child. All these have improved the livelihood of families with 1 child. An adequate ideological education to families with 1 child is needed in order to increase their motivation and productivity. Good nurseries and kindergartens are also needed so that parents may concentrate on their daily work and improve productivity. Birth control measures for childbearing women should be improved and efforts should be made to emphasize the importance of birth control to the nation.     

Durable consumption,saving and retirement

Durables yield services through life but are also a store of value and both features may have important implications for savings and retirement decisions. Durables also affect bequests and thus induce intergenerational transfers. We show that allowing explicitly for durables has important implications for retirement decisions and responses to various changes in the environment. An improvement in the possibility of freeing housing capital makes the old retire earlier (income effect) while the young plan to retire later since they increase housing demand and reduce financial savings. Considering welfare in stationary equilibrium, we find that a reduction in wealth locking-in in durables is not necessarily welfare improving due to the effects on bequests. From a social welfare perspective, individuals tend to choose too much financial savings, too little durable acquisition and too early retirement.     

Effect of development of rural commodity economy on family planning]

The paper discusses the effects of the changes of rural income level on family planning practice based a survey of 200 rural families in a affluent vegetable producing area of suburban Beijing. In 1984, 99.7% of child birth followed the local birth planning, and 99.1% of families with one child received One Child Certificates. The annual per capita income of the 200 families was 1,092 yuan (1 US$ = 3.7 yuan) in 1984 even higher than the community average. The number of children was negatively associated with the per capita income and per capita consumption except families with 4 children, most of whom have grown up. The rural mechanization in the community has greatly increased the need for skills and technology rather than strong laborers. The provision of community welfare programs and the increased living standard changed the value of children and also changed people's perception in favor of gender equality. Among families with 1 or 2 children, most preferred to have girls. And among families with more children, the preferred family size is smaller than the actual size, which shows a tendency towards favoring a small family. Among 1 child families, 58.7% considered 1 boy and 1 girl to be ideal, and 37.7% was happy with the only child. As the community becomes richer, both the community and individual families increased their investment in education. The spending on education per child was over 2 times as high in 1 child families than the families with more children. The educational status of parents is positively associated with the exception of children's future education and current spending on education. The concern of parents over children's education is an important factor in improving the quality of labor force. Women of higher education status are more acceptable to contraception and family planning policy. The relatively high level of education of the community has been conducive to it fertility decline.     

Money value of consumption and income of rural families: Two measures of economic status

In this study a measure of economic status, money value of consumption, is defined and its relationship to income is examined using data collected from 628 U.S. rural families and 1170 North Carolina rural families. Findings suggest that for rural families money value of consumption is linearly related to income, that the variance of money value of consumption is proportional to income and that money value of consumption is more equally distributed than income. Money value of consumption is more closely related to income for one-and four-or-more-person families than for two-or-three-person families. A comparison of how the two measures (money value of comsumption and income) rank rural families by consumption status indicates that income is most likely to rank families inaccurately at very low and very high levels of income. Findings should assist in the appropriate interpretation of income when it is used as a proxy for consumption.     

遗产动机对中国老年家庭储蓄率的影响

中国人口老龄化问题日益凸显,老年家庭储蓄率居高不下,标准生命周期假说理论已无法解释。基于中国家庭金融调查数据,从遗产动机视角分析老年家庭高储蓄率现象。研究结果表明,中国老年家庭遗产动机显著提升家庭储蓄率,遗产动机使得老年家庭储蓄率水平显著提高5%—10%左右。进一步研究发现,相比较于城市家庭,遗产动机对农村家庭储蓄影响显著;相对于高等财富家庭而言,遗产动机显著促进中低财富家庭储蓄率水平,说明“未富先老”使得老年家庭有更强的遗产动机进行储蓄;对于家庭不同生活状况的子女,遗产动机显著提升子女体制外工作和子女教育水平低的老年家庭储蓄率,表明中国老年家庭利他主义的遗产动机较强。本文为理解中国老年家庭的高储蓄提供了新的视角,可以为政府相关部门制定政策提供参考。     

The mixed effects of income upon successive births may explain the convergence phenomenon

Summary This paper finds that an increment of income has a more positive (less negative) effect on the probability of a family having another child when it consists of relatively few children than of relatively many children. That is, within a group of people whose income is increased, the increase may be expected to influence the average family with no children or one child to increase family size, and to influence the average family that would otherwise have many children to have fewer. To put it another way, increased income reduces the variance of family size across families. This provides an explanation for the 'convergence' of American families to two to four children. The basis for these conclusions is a cross-sectional analysis of white women in the U.S. Census of 1960.     

Dynamics of Asset Poverty in South Korea

Studies of economic insecurity tend to focus on changes in incomes and transitions in and out of income poverty. Yet family economic conditions are shaped by more than just income. Levels of assets and wealth, and changes in these over time also play a role. To identify which groups of the poor have been structurally trapped in poverty over time, using the Korean Welfare Panel Study, we examined the dynamics of asset poverty from 2005 to 2014. We defined three asset poverty lines by operationalizing assets as resources for either future consumption or development. Findings show that asset poverty experience in a previous year significantly increased the probability to incur asset poverty by 5–12% for all analysis samples. In addition, the probability of incurring asset poverty decreased with home ownership, higher disposable income, and greater diversification of the household portfolio. Our findings suggest that the asset poor are likely to fall into structural and persistent poverty over time, and an asset-building approach is needed to improve the asset poverty status of households in South Korea.

     

中国老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响 ——基于CHARLS面板数据的分析

在我国快速老龄化和居民储蓄率居高不下的背景下,结合老年人储蓄偏好和消费特点,构建家庭消费计量分析模型,文章利用CHARLS2011、2013、2015年微观跟踪调查数据,采用工具变量—随机效应模型划分年龄层次和消费类别逐级估计,重点考察老年人储蓄对其家庭消费的影响。研究表明,老年人储蓄水平越高,对家庭消费的促进能力就越强;分城乡来看,农村老年人储蓄对家庭消费的贡献更大;按年龄组别来看,中、低龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响显著,高龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响不显著;按消费类别看,老年人储蓄偏重于家庭基本生活、教育文化、健康等刚性消费支出,城镇和农村老年人储蓄对不同消费类别影响的差异主要表现在日常支出、医疗保健和耐用消费品等方面。此外,研究还发现,老年人拥有房产对家庭消费具有非常明显的提振作用,家庭收入和老年人借贷对家庭消费的贡献显著。     

The impact of child support on cognitive outcomes of young children

We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth-Child data to address three questions. First, does the receipt of child support have beneficial effects for children with absent fathers apart from increasing income? Second, do the effects of child support differ when child-support awards and payments are made cooperatively as opposed to being court ordered? Third, are any positive effects of child support solely a product of unmeasured differences among fathers and families? Controlling for the socioeconomic characteristics of the child and family, we find some evidence that receipt of child support has a positive impact on children’s cognitive test scores over and above its contribution to total income. However, the effects vary by test, by race, and by reason for Father’s absence. Our results also indicate that the distinction between cooperative and noncooperative awards is important. Finally, our instrumental variables estimates show that the effects of child support persist after we control for unobserved characteristics of fathers and families.     

Childhood Family Structure and Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States

The declining prevalence of two-parent families helped increase income inequality over recent decades. Does family structure also condition how economic (dis)advantages pass from parents to children? If so, shifts in the organization of family life may contribute to enduring inequality between groups defined by childhood family structure. Using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data, I combine parametric and nonparametric methods to reveal how family structure moderates intergenerational income mobility in the United States. I find that individuals raised outside stable two-parent homes are much more mobile than individuals from stable two-parent families. Mobility increases with the number of family transitions but does not vary with children’s time spent coresiding with both parents or stepparents conditional on a transition. However, this mobility indicates insecurity, not opportunity. Difficulties maintaining middle-class incomes create downward mobility among people raised outside stable two-parent homes. Regardless of parental income, these people are relatively likely to become low-income adults, reflecting a new form of perverse equality. People raised outside stable two-parent families are also less likely to become high-income adults than people from stable two-parent homes. Mobility differences account for about one-quarter of family-structure inequalities in income at the bottom of the income distribution and more than one-third of these inequalities at the top.     

家庭收入是否影响子女教育水平——基于CHNS数据的实证研究

教育是低收入家庭子女改变自身社会地位的重要途径。基于CHNS的数据,本文分别使用OLS、2SLS计量经济方法,分析了家庭收入对子女教育水平的影响。OLS结果显示,家庭收入对子女教育水平的影响为正且显著,使用工具变量对家庭收入的内生性进行控制后（2SLS）,家庭收入对子女教育水平的影响依旧为正。分样本的估计结果表明,家庭收入对女儿的影响程度大于其对儿子的影响程度。将家庭收入从低到高依次划分为五个等级的细分样本估计结果显示,随着收入等级的提高,家庭收入对子女教育水平的影响程度呈现出“倒U形”。     

Are the Real Time Costs of Children Equally Shared by Mothers and Fathers?

This article attempts to estimate the time cost of children in France for couples who do not forgo any income, on the basis of the INSEE 1998–1999 time use survey. Having a child involves an increase in domestic work and/or the dedication of occupational income to pay for childcare. The reduction in “time for oneself”—leisure and personal care, i.e. 24 h less working hours paid or unpaid—is modelled for a dual-earner couple in full-time employment who do not use childcare services to increase his/her leisure time. Taking a couple in full-time employment avoids income endogeneity bias, since income is reduced by career interruption and part-time employment. These estimates account for this selection by full-time paid work. The article shows that time cost is roughly 1 h 30 min a day for a child aged 3–14, and is 4 h a day for each younger child. As this cost rises, the more fathers sacrifice some of their free time. The father and mother of two young children with a childminder thus each have only 11 hours of free time (including sleep) per day. The time cost of a large family (3 children) is equivalent to a full-time job on the labour market. In France, work-life balance policies and family pension entitlements only cover a small part of this cost.     

Relative Economic Position and Subjective Well-Being in a Poor Society: Does Relative Position Indicator Matter?

Concern for relative income (or status in general) may have important implications for poverty and individual well-being. This paper examines the impact of relative economic position on individual’s level of well-being among poor communities in rural Ethiopia. The analysis uses a self-reported measure of overall life-evaluation as a measure of individual well-being. Despite the fact that well-being is multidimensional, the impact of non-money metric measures of relative economic position on individual well-being has not been given a lot of attention in the literature. In this study, relative economic position is measured using consumption data, asset index, and respondent’s own perception of relative wealth. The asset index captures the non-monetary dimensions of economic welfare, including education, physical assets, and social capital. We use data from the 2004 and 2009 waves of the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey and employ a multilevel modelling technique to account for individual and group level heterogeneity in our empirical analysis. We find no significant relationship between individual well-being and relative economic position measured with in consumption terms. In contrast, we do find a significant negative impact of relative position on individual well-being when we use asset indices and respondent’s own perception of relative wealth to measure relative economic position. Our findings suggest that when individuals compare themselves with others, they evaluate various aspects of their life, including their financial conditions, asset holdings, and social relations, which are hardly captured by consumption or income data in many poor countries.     

预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率

人口年龄结构趋于老龄化和人均预期寿命逐步增长是目前我国人口发展的两个典型特征,而年龄阶段不同,个人的收入、消费与储蓄行为也不同。基于生命周期理论,在选定相关分析指标的基础上,文章使用我国省际平衡面板数据,实证分析了我国人口预期寿命增长和年龄结构改变对国民储蓄率的影响。分析结论表明,人口预期寿命增长提高了我国国民储蓄率;不考虑时间效应时,幼年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率,而老年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率;在考虑时间效应时,幼年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率,而老年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率。对此,文章给出了合理的解释。通过使用多种估计方法,我们发现所得到的结论是基本稳健的。     

家庭规模缩小对家庭经济保障能力的影响:苏南实例

本文通过实验设计方法 ,并利用苏南农村居民的数据资料 ,分析实证了在有收入积累的前提下 ,家庭规模缩小不仅不会弱化家庭保障能力 ,而且会强化家庭保障能力。不同规模家庭保障能力差别 ,随时间推移和在家庭生命周期的不同阶段具有波动性。家庭保障能力会因家庭规模的大小、消费和积累模式的差异和在家庭生命周期中的不同阶段而不同 ,并可能发生相互转换。