基于期权分析方法的动态联盟合同条款设计

动态联盟是为了提高企业敏捷性而形成的一种基于合同的新型组织形式.因此,为实现"双赢"的目的必须设计良好的合同.基于期权分析方法分析合同条款中的权利、义务关系和合同条款设计,并用蒙特卡洛仿真方法对现实世界中的汽车联盟合作协议进行了研究.     

基于Shapley值法的动态联盟伙伴企业利益分配策略

动态联盟被认为是21世纪最有前途的企业组织模式,它增强了企业自身的竞争力,使企业能更好地应对市场的不确定性。然而作为一种崭新的组织形态,它仍有许多问题值得研究。利益分配就是其中之一。本文首先介绍了用于解决多人合作对策问题的Shapley值法,并将之应用于动态联盟伙伴企业的利益分配,然后分析了用Shapley值法进行动态联盟利益分配的成功与不足,最后针对其不足提出了一种基于风险因子的修正算法。     

契约型战略联盟的灵活性期权价值研究

当面对较高程度的不确定性时,企业可以选择契约型战略联盟作为战略投资的治理模式,根据相关不确定因素的发展变化而选择不同的合作伙伴,这样,不但确保了战略投资灵活期权价值的实现,而且此治理模式本身也具有较灵活的期权价值.契约型联盟可以分为紧密型战略联盟和松散型战略联盟.本文应用期权动态规划定价模型,对紧密型联盟治理模式和松散型联盟契约治理模式的灵活性期权价值做了模型分析,并进行了相关参数的敏感性比较.分析结果表明,在一定范围内.当战略投资相关因素的不确定性程度较高时,应该选择较灵活的治理模式,如松散型战略联盟.     

基于模拟退火算法的动态联盟盟员的动态选择

为了顺应21世纪知识经济时代竞争的需要,在制造业出现了动态联盟的先进制造模式,从而使得对动态联盟的研究成为当前学术界热点问题之一。目前,国内外在研究动态联盟盟员选择主要集中于组盟时的盟员选择,是一种静态选择,与动态联盟“快捷变化”的特性不符。由于知识的形性、外溢性、无地域性、成员间的合作竞争性等,使得动态联盟不可避免会产生知识资产冲突,从而导致着盟员的动态更迭。为此,基于模拟退火算法的思想,本文设计了一种解决动态联盟中盟员动态选择的算法,该算法很好地解决了动态联盟中盟员如何被动态选择和淘汰的问题,实例也表明该算法是符合实际运做的。当然,本算法也存在着一些有待继续研究的问题。     

网络经济时代动态联盟战略实施的关键措施

本文系统地研究了动态联盟战略实施的关键措施,它们是识别自身核心优势、明确目标、合作伙伴的选择、选择合作模式、联盟规模的确定、组织的管理、有效的管理信息系统及风险与利益的分配。     

动态联盟--企业实现大规模定制生产的有效途径

针对单个企业实施大规模定制生产时资源、能力不足的情况,提出并论证了动态联盟是解决这一问题的有效途径,分别就基于动态联盟的大规模定制生产的优势和基本运作模式进行了研究.     

基于BP神经网络的电子商务环境下供应链联盟绩效评价研究

电子商务下供应链动态联盟绩效评估与传统的企业组织形式相比具有其新颖的特征。本文讨论了构建电子商务环境下供应链合作联盟绩效评价体系的依据,提出了一套系统的供应链联盟绩效评价指标体系,并对BP神经网络在电子商务环境下供应链合作联盟绩效评价中的应用进行了探讨。     

战略联盟的稳定性边界研究

战略联盟的高失败率决定了联盟稳定性研究的重要性.在一个专业化理论框架下,联盟的稳定性是由企业对于专业化水平和协作模式选择的动态决策过程所内生的,联盟的稳定性边界决定于投入联盟的资产专用属性、市场交易的效率和交易价格比以及战略联盟内部的交易效率.     

我国农业产学研联盟模式与机制探析

农业产学研联盟是新形势下"农科教结合"模式发展的高级形式,是发展我国现代农业的有效方式,是现代农业的生产方式——社会集成化的具体体现。本文分类研究了我国农业产学研联盟组建模式,对农业产学研联盟运行过程涉及机制进行系统研究,并结合案例分析了当前我国农业产学研联盟组织模式及运行机制呈现的现状及特点,以期为我国农业产学研联盟的发展提供一些有益的借鉴与启示。     

动态联盟中企业建模的Meta-Model

虚拟组织的两个主要组成 :1 )虚拟的办公环境 ,如个体之间不受地理位置限制的电子通讯交流方式和个体之间基于信息技术支持的文件存储、检索或数据处理等系统 .2 )功能虚拟化 ,发展自己的核心业务能力 ,弱项实行外包 ( outsourcing) .因此 ,信息技术和信息系统的有效支持是虚拟企业的重要特征之一 .如何在构建虚拟企业动态联盟的企业建模时 ,考虑整体的信息系统构架值得研究 .文章利用战略依赖 /原理模型等面向目标 ( goal-oriented,GO)的分析方法—OO( object-oriented)方法的延伸 ,研究了虚拟企业动态联盟中企业建模的 Meta-Model,该模型为动态联盟间的信息系统构架提供了建模的基础     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Employees' perceptions of organizational restructuring: the role of social support

Organizational change and restructuring is often perceived as leading to increased occupational stress, impacting negatively on the psychological well-being of employees. This pragmatic study investigates the role of social support and dispositional affect as moderators of role stress post-restructuring for employees in a public utility company. A total of 176 employees, including 37 managers, 60 graded staff and 78 industrial staff completed a self-report questionnaire, approximately 1 year postrestructuring, retrospectively assessing role conflict, ambiguity, overload and positive and negative feedback pre- and post-restructuring. Results suggested that overall role stress increased for managers/ senior officers and graded staff, but not for industrial staff. Social support was linked with lower role stress, more positive feedback and less negative feedback at post-restructuring. For certain role stressors this impact was moderated by dispositional affect, but the effect was not consistent across occupational groups. Positive affect enhanced the effect of manager support in reducing role conflict for graded staff, and the effect of co-worker support in increasing positive feedback and reducing negative feedback for industrial staff. Findings suggest that managers should pay particular attention to support and feedback for employees during periods of chronic occupational stress following organizational restructuring.