DISARMING THE OPPOSITION: THE PRESIDENT, THE PUBLIC, AND THE INF TREATY

Data from a nationwide opinion survey are used to test the propositionthat President Reagan's sponsorship of the INF treaty effectivelydisarmed the opposition that hard-liners would normally haveregistered against the treaty. The data are consistent withthis interpretation. That is, the president's endorsement ofthe treaty had only a modest impact on those who perceived theSoviets as relatively nonthreatening, but it had a much morepronounced impact on those who viewed the Soviets as threatening.These results shed new light on the extent to which and theconditions under which Americans are willing to set aside theirown policy predilections and follow along behind presidentialinitiatives in the international arena.     

"THE NEWS MEDIA, THE PROBLEM FRAME, AND THE PRODUCTION OF FEAR"

The role of the news media in promoting a public discourse of fear is examined. A conceptual model is offered that is based on recent developments in communication formats and frames. The emphasis is on the impact of media forms and frames for guiding the selection and presentation of reports emphasizing fear (e.g., crime, drugs, violence). A "problem frame' compatible with format and entertainment needs is used by the news media as a secular version of a morality play. This promotes messages that resonate fear. The role of the problem frame is described as part of the process for promoting widespread messages stressing fear and danger. Materials from a qualitative content analysis approach, "tracking discourse,' of selected news media illustrate how the focus and content of "fear' shifts over a period of time. Conceptual and methodological implications of this approach are discussed.
The sociological imagination…consists of the capacity to shift from one perspective to another, and in the process to build up an adequate view of a total society and its components.
C. Wright Mills, The Sociological Imagination .     

THE COMMON POOL, BARGAINING, AND THE RULE OF CAPTURE

Firms producing from a single oilfield face the common-pool problem: how to divide production and profits among themselves. The rule of capture creates competition among them to produce the oil before anyone else does, and a tendency for overproduction. Private bargaining among the firms can avoid the wasteful production practices associated with the rule of capture and increase joint profits. This paper explores the structure and expected outcome of the common-pool problem, and demonstrates that smaller producers hold a bargaining advantage that is not easily overcome by larger producers or neutral arbitrators.     

MORAL PANICS, THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, AND THE ARMS RACE

This study argues that the generalized fear of the Soviet threat was punctuated by moral panics that provided a signal impetus to the arms race. The growth of the American nuclear arsenal came in three large waves (the Truman. the Eisenhower/Kennedy/McNamara, and the Reagan buildups), the result of panics unleashed by startling and spectacular Soviet challenges to American nuclear hegemony (the Soviet atomic bomb, the Sputnik/Cuban missile crisis, and the window of vulnerability, respectively). The initial panics were instrumental in overcoming the fiscal constraints imposed on the military by the Truman and Eisenhower administrations, creating conditions conducive to the ascendency of a military-industrial complex. More specifically, the timing of the panics was determined by authentic surges of fear that in turn provided the political leverage for large-scale nuclear buildups. The direction taken by the panics, however, was determined by the creation and dramatization of an elective affinity between nuclear supremacy and both national security and the sanctity of the American way of life. In contrast with these panics, most efforts to mobilize fear by creating the perception of gaps in the Soviet favor failed.     

PRESERVING THE POSTMODERN, RESTORING THE PAST:

This article is based on a comparison of the preservation philosophies in place at two historical Virginia homes: Thomas Jefferson's Monticello and James Madison's Montpelier. Interviews and analysis suggest that the curators at the former site are guided by an empirical historicism that is decidedly modernist, while their counterparts at the latter, influenced by contemporary trends in social science and philosophy, are more skeptical about the possibility of recovering and presenting an objectively verifiable past of a specific historical period. The divergence in preservation strategies at these historic homes suggests that, in our present cultural moment, there is much confusion over what constitutes history, over the legitimacy of privileging one person or period over another, and over the currency of scientific interpretations of "truth"in non-academic contexts.     

THE WEB MARRIAGE GAME,THE GENDERED SELF,AND CHINESE MODERNITY

This paper examines the web-based virtual marriage game craze that emerged in the 1990s. These online interactive games may have opened up moments of liberation and formulated new ideologies of sexual relations. However, web-based marriages only ensure a male-dominated system and conform to dominant patriarchal standards – regardless of the number of females involved. Re-enacting the rules of marriage, the cyber game is ideologically directed against free unions, mobility, promiscuity, and parafamilial fluidity – all in order to stabilize individuals for reasons of social and political control; at the same time, it promotes the acquisition of skills needed by individual players in a free market, as if paralleling the drastic re-articulation of the economy. I understand the virtual game to be a safe haven for both China and the Chinese people to imagine that they can re-strengthen and re-virilize themselves in a rapidly changing world. They co-fabricate a depthless interface or a pure semblance of a looming powerful China ruled by a male-oriented system. Just as China dreams of achieving modernity through a consistent, dependable, controlled, and ‘clean’ path, the virtual reality of the marriage game reveals a social imaginary in which contemporary Chinese people picture their social existence in an unstable transitional moment.     

THE HARDER THE TASK,THE HIGHER THE SCORE: FINDINGS OF A DIFFICULTY BIAS

Studies have found that going first or last in a sequential order contest leads to a biased outcome, commonly called order bias (or primacy and recency). Studies have also found that judges have a tendency to reward contestants they recognize with additional points, called reference bias. Controlling for known biases, we test for a new type of bias we refer to as “difficulty bias,” which reveals that athletes attempting more difficult routines receive higher execution scores, even when difficulty and execution are judged separately. Despite some identification challenges, we add to the literature by finding strong evidence of a difficulty bias in gymnastics. We also provide generalizations beyond athletics. (JEL L10, L83, D81, J70, Z1)     

THE RISE OF SERVICES,DEINDUSTRIALIZATION, AND THE LENGTH OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Economic recovery is longer in service‐providing economies than in goods‐producing economies. Services cannot be produced and inventoried ahead of demand; goods can. We are the first to document this macroeconomic repercussion of the sectoral shift away from the secondary sector toward the tertiary sector, that is, of deindustrialization and the rise of services. We distinguish between nontradable services and all other sectors, using U.S. state‐level employment data for post‐1960 recessions. Concerns over the endogeneity of services are addressed in two ways: by using 3‐year pre‐recession averages of sector shares, and separately by invoking instrumental variables. Our results are robust to alternative specifications. The increase in service production and deindustrialization in the United States over the last half‐century lengthens the trough‐to‐peak employment recovery from recessions by about 40%. (JEL E24, E32, L80, N12)     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE, COMPETITIVE BALANCE, AND THE REST OF THE MAJOR LEAGUES

Analyzing North American major sports leagues other than baseball, we find no break points in competitive balance time series corresponding to rule changes, the draft, free agency, salary caps, or labor disputes except for the 1998 basketball lockout. Some expansion and team relocation correspond with break points. Mergers that do correspond with break points all enhance competitive balance. But not all expansions, moves, and mergers correspond with break points. Remaining explanatory challenges include a general negative trend in competitive balance in basketball and the occurrence of a break point in football, 1976–1977. ( JEL C32, L83)     

POSTMODERNISM, POSTINDUSTRIALISM, AND THE FUTURE

In order to describe the main features of future American society, the main changes already occurring are discussed, a theory is formulated that explains these changes, and this theory is applied to the future. Three well-known theories are used as a starting point: Habermas's theory of systems, his theory of lifeworlds, and general conflict theory. To account for a variety of systems, a theory of the "organizing" process is proposed. To explain the trans-formation of lifeworlds, a simplified theory of the "communicative" process is outlined. To gain insight into cultural change, the theory of "oppositional" process is presented. The main conclusions are that we are witnessing a shift from "system" to "lifeworld" and that both postindustrial structures and postmodern culture contribute to and are symptoms of this shift. Moreover, future American societies, shaped by this shift, will have many properties of the preindustrial gemeinschafts.     

THE FUN GOD: SPORTS,RECREATION, LEISURE,AND AMUSEMENT IN THE UNITED STATES

Twenty‐five Caribbean and Latin American nations were examined to determine the relationship between potential female headed families and other social indicators. Regression analysis reveals that women's labor market participation is associated with the proportion of families potentially headed by women. The share of girls in secondary school is also associated with the dependent variable. Social indicators of modernization and dependency were regressed on potential female‐headed households. Neither approach alone explains the formation of female‐headed families in the region.     

THE EAST END, THE WEST END, AND KING'S CROSS: ON CLUSTERING IN THE FOUR-PLAYER HOTELLING GAME

We study experimentally a standard four-player Hotelling location game with a uniform density of consumers and inelastic demand. The pure strategy Nash equilibrium configuration consists of two firms located at one quarter of the "linear city," and the other two at three quarters. We do not observe convergence to such an equilibrium. In our experimental data we find three clusters. Besides the direct proximity of the two equilibrium locations, this concerns the focal midpoint. Moreover, we observe that whereas this midpoint appears to become more notable over time, other focal points fade away. We explain how these observations are related to best-response dynamics, and to the fact that the players rely on best-responses in particular when they are close to the equilibrium configuration.     

SAFETY FIRST, BANKRUPTCY, AND THE PRICING AND INVESTMENT DECISIONS OF THE FIRM

The paper analyzes the impact of imposing a constraint on the probability of bankruptcy for the pricing and investment choices of firms. Two models are presented in which a firm faces stochastic demand; in one costs are known with certainty, and in the other costs of production are probabilistic. In both cases the constraint induces a reduction in optimal price if demand is elastic. For less elastic demand, price increases may be indicated. With constant costs, the constraint lowers optimal investment. The results are applicable to the analysis of rating agencies' behavior, or to the design of bond covenants, especially for public utilities.     

THE SAFETY DANCE: CONFRONTING HARASSMENT, INTIMIDATION, AND VIOLENCE IN THE FIELD

This paper discusses how gender dynamics may put female researchers at risk of harassment or even violence from participants, research assistants, or bystanders when conducting fieldwork. Based on a review of the existing literature on fieldwork safety, as well as the authors' own experiences interviewing male participants, the authors argue that attention to protecting subjects of research has led the social science community to largely ignore the possibility that in some cases, researchers themselves may be at risk. The paper concludes with suggested strategies for increasing researcher safety during data collection, as well as a call for issues of fieldwork safety to be more openly discussed by supervisors, professors, advisors, and others who guide novice researchers through the fieldwork process.     

THE DEMAND FOR EXCESS RESERVES, LIABILITY MANAGEMENT, AND THE MONEY SUPPLY PROCESS

Commercial bank behavior is not adequately dealt with in existing macro models of the financial sector. The central role of a demand for excess reserves (or free reserves) function in models of the money supply process is particularly suspect. In this paper, it is argued that changes in commercial bank behavior induced by alterations in economic and financial conditions and various banking regulations, along with the central bank's approach to policy, have combined to alter the excess reserve function and the relationship between bank reserves and the money supply. Empirical work presented suggests that the "demand" for excess reserves has indeed undergone structural change. Thus, the study indicates that conventional approaches to commercial bank behavior and the demand for excess reserves need to be reworked.     

IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE OUTCOME,CHANGE THE CONTEST

This article analyzes contests when contestants derive heterogeneous benefits from winning and investments are seen as costs to the contest designer. An example of this is sports leagues maximizing league profits. For sports leagues, optimal contests depend upon the heterogeneity of market sizes and the impact of team investment on winning. Sports leagues have mechanisms to change the structure of contests, implying they have some control of the expected payoff of teams, the value of the athletes, and the balance of the league. Data from Major League Baseball and the National Basketball Association are used to empirically estimate the model. (JEL C72, L10, L83)     

THE PROBLEM WITH PREDICTION: CONTINGENCY, EMERGENCE, AND THE REIFICATION OF PROJECTIONS

Here we assess the limitations of "social physics" methods for making predictions of future social conditions in order to contribute to the development of an alternative model of scientific sociology. First, we discuss the complexities inherent in causal analyses of social phenomena, where social organizing principles change historically and causal forces interact to generate outcomes. Second, we analyze the assumptions that underlie prediction in the social sciences by using the population projections of demographers as an illustrative example. Demographers typically make projections assuming the future will be the same as the (recent) past. This approach neglects the possibility of abrupt historical change, contingent events, and emergent social structures. Third, we argue that historical contingency is an essential and necessary consideration in any analysis of the world. A historical materialist approach provides the basis for better formulating nomothetic and idiographic modes of explanation and appreciates the important connections between the two. Sociological inquiry should be an attempt to distinguish between truly nomothetic processes and emergent historical background conditions that only appear nomothetic in a specific historical era. We close with an argument for the importance of developing a sociological science that runs parallel to nonmechanistic approaches in the biological sciences.