全球攻略:维护21世纪的气候安全

气候变暖是历史上迄今为止人类所遇到的最大范围的公共问题,也是当今国际社会普遍关注的重大全球性问题。目前,气候变暖加快要求人类在21世纪进入"气候安全呵护"的全球攻略空间,同时,应对全球气候变暖的国际行动也备受世人关注,因为,妥善应对和减缓气候变暖事关各国的核心利益。在当前国内外形势下,我国已作出长远的战略考量,并在不断制定和完善相应的战略谋划及应对策略。     

全球变暖没有减速

误解：全球变暖有所减缓甚至在过去十年中暂停 德国科学家对全球气候变化趋势进一步的研究证实,全球变暖没有减速的迹象,并预计在未来几十年里将进一步增大。他们通过汇集从1979年至2010年期间的全球5大气温数据集,分析引起全球气温短期波动的3个主要因素：厄尔尼诺现象、太阳亮度变化和火山爆发,最终确定了全球气候变暖的趋势。     

城市高温灾害的规划应对研究进展

随着全球气候不断升温,城市高温灾害越来越严重,严重影响城市人居环境。通过CNKI和Web of Science检索城市高温灾害相关文献,采用Meta-analysis方法和Cite Space工具,分析近年来城市规划应对高温灾害的研究进展。结果发现,城市高温灾害的规划应对研究起源于城市热岛方面,在气候变化方面得到发展,最后形成城市高温灾害的研究。在减缓性策略与适应性策略两大主题下,主要应对途径是土地利用、空间结构、道路交通、绿化景观以及建筑等,每种途径又分为多种具体策略。目前在规划体系、针对性规划以及效益评估等方面存在明显不足。在理论上应加强构建规划体系,以及效益评估系统的研究;在实践中制定应对高温灾害的规划编制标准,探索气候友好型城市规划设计方法,为韧性城市建设提供参考。     

全球变暖，不必担心饥荒的五个理由

理由1 历史气候暖期，粮食产量持续上升 从历史上看，人类的粮食产量，在全球变暖期间都是持续上升的。这是因为气候变暖提供了植物更多需要的东西，如阳光、雨水和较长的生长期。而植物不喜欢的东西在温暖期也是较少的，如缩短作物生长期的晚春霜冻和秋季初霜，以及能摧毁田间作物的冰雹。丹麦农业科学院的约根·欧森预测，欧洲的整体粮食产量将随着气候变暖而增加，即使欧洲南部有些地区将因干旱而产量有所减少。     

暖冬!暖冬!

身边的暖冬已经无法让人因不再需要厚重冬衣而高兴起来,因为最近几年来,关于地球的坏消息一个接着一个,飓风、洪水、山火、融冰……这些词汇把过去只有科学家和环保主义者呼吁大家关心的全球变暖问题拉近到普通老百姓的身边。看看这样一些科学家的预测——全球气候变暖将导致农业和林业生产自然风险     

超大城市气候适应性规划技术体系及应用——以北京为例

本文依据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第五次评估报告提出的以“风险”为核心的决策理论基础,辨析了国际前沿适应理论,总结了国际机构适应性规划框架,分析了主要国际大城市的气候适应性规划案例,明确了适应性规划的五项重要内容。这五项内容包括：气候变化趋势分析与预测、风险与脆弱性评估、适应能力评价指标体系、适应性规划策略和适应性规划实施。提出了“预测-评估-规划-实施”的“四部曲”式气候适应性规划技术路线,构建了系统完整的气候适应性规划技术体系。在具体应用上,首先以北京为研究对象,对北京市域范围内气候风险区划及适应能力进行全面扫描,进而构建全方位、多险种的策略体系;然后进一步将视角从市域深入社区,并在社区尺度探索人与建成环境并重的气候适应性规划方法;最后在首都核心区进行具体实践。基于以上探索性研究,提出北京在城乡规划体系中体现气候适应性的策略建议。     

气候变化政治对海湾国家的影响

海湾地区气候炎热,淡水资源缺乏。长期以来,海湾国家主要依靠能源出口获取大量资金,借此修建海水淡化工厂等各种设施以适应和改善气候环境的影响。近年来,国际社会在应对全球变暖问题的协调合作中,已形成一种处理全球气候变化的政治。气候变化政治要求各国减少能源消耗和降低二氧化碳排放量以缓解全球变暖趋势,从而对海湾国家以能源出口收益来维护生存环境和社会稳定的基本经济模式构成冲击。面对气候变化政治带来的冲击,海湾国家目前的权宜选择只能是继续扩大能源出口,并尽量拖延实施气候变化协议来进行应对。然而,这种做法虽可以暂时保持海湾国家改善环境的努力和维护其经济政治结构稳定,但却难以消除全球气候变化政治今后长期推动能源结构调整和节能减排所带来的压力。     

中国应对气候变化的政策与行动(一)

前言 全球气候变化及其不利影响是人类共同关心的问题.工业革命以来的人类活动,尤其是发达国家在工业化过程中大量消耗能源资源,导致大气中温室气体浓度增加,引起全球气候近50年来以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,对全球自然生态系统产生了明显影响,对人类社会的生存和发展带来严重挑战.     

埃及气候变化应对策略及其困境

在全球气候变暖的背景下,埃及近年来年平均气温居高不下,海平面不断上升,尼罗河三角洲备受威胁,干旱程度加重,水资源短缺加剧,多种疾病的患病率增高,危害公众健康。为了应对气候变化,埃及成立环境部门与气候机构,制定相应的气候政策,出台相关法律法规,非政府组织及其社会各界付出了一定程度的努力,埃及与国际组织和世界各国也不断加强气候治理合作。埃及应对气候变化虽然取得了一定成效,但治理效果却十分有限。埃及应对气候变化面临的困境包括：气候问题长期处于政府决策的边缘地位,且财政支持不足;气候立法缓慢;人口众多,国民环保意识普遍薄弱;全球气候治理的不公平现象对埃及气候治理产生了负面影响等。从长远来看,埃及因受限于各种条件,在应对气候变化领域仍将面临严峻挑战。     

气候变暖:港口遭灾早安排

全球气候变暖，将会给人类带来空前的灾难，首当其冲就是低洼的岛国、河口洼地和港口。 气候变暖，导致海平面上升，各国都在想方设法积极应对，但这是一个全球化的难题，不是一两个国家和地区就能控制住气候变化，没有哪个国家有足够的能力能制止或控制南北两极冰川融化。笔者航海多年，见证了世界众多港口城市现状，如果海平面继续上升，将会给这些港口带来不可估量的损失。     

A capital theory approach to migrants' views and engagement with climate adaptation in the region of origin: A qualitative study in Belgium

Combining insights from migration and climate adaptation studies, this study examines how migrants living in Belgium contribute to climate adaptation in their region of origin, based on 29 qualitative interviews with migrants in Belgium. The findings varied considerably, depending on the region of origin, the main driver of migration and the possibility of returning. The results show that both the knowledge and capacity to contribute to climate adaptation in the region of origin depends on the forms and degrees of capital individuals have, both in the immigrant country and region of origin. Migrants with more cultural capital in the region of origin had more transnational bonding and bridging ties, resulting in more opportunities to contribute to the development of the region. However, as many of the interviewees originated from urban areas, their actions were oriented more towards waste, pollution and life domains other than climate adaptation. This contrasts with migrants with less formal cultural capital. Due to specific living conditions, they were more familiar with local climate impacts. Their transnational bonding social ties increased this knowledge and familiarity with the need for climate adaptation. Nevertheless, the high costs of integration into the immigrant society and a lack of cultural and economic capital limits this group's capacity to contribute to climate adaptation initiatives in the region of origin. Bringing the concept of ‘migrant capital’ into the study of climate adaptation fills a gap in the literature on environmental migration, and especially engages with discourses that frame migration as an adaptation strategy.     

“Ground Zero” for Climate Crisis: Narratives About Climate Adaptation and Implications for Justice in Coastal Louisiana

Decisions about climate change adaptation are informed by technical information, but they are also shaped by social and political factors and impacted communities. Given the realities of a changing climate, more research is needed to examine how technically trained practitioners and other actors describe their work in relation to social and political factors. This article contributes to knowledge on this topic by analyzing the narratives of 62 organizational actors in coastal Louisiana. Actors include scientists, engineers, modelers, planners, project administrators, government staff, and non-profit employees working on climate adaptation and coastal risk reduction projects outlined in Louisiana's Coastal Master Plan. While scholars critique the Master Plan as overly technocratic, I show that people weave morals and values into narratives about science. However, I show how the motivations of acting boldly, morally, and urgently in the face of emergency clash with climate justice. Some individuals within these organizations do advocate for reforming or rethinking Master Plan projects to better serve coastal communities; however, these individuals also face resistance from colleagues who frame this work as secondary or outside of their organizational purview. To conclude, I argue that research connecting technical aspects of climate adaptation planning to power and social justice outcomes has the potential to bridge disciplinary divides.     

Climate Change Adaptation: Community Action,Disadvantaged Groups and Practice Implications for Social Work

This paper explores community-level action in relation to socially based climate change adaptations for vulnerable citizens—older people in particular. While awareness of risk and adaptation has increased in various institutions across Australia, the translation of awareness into action is limited, particularly in the area of socially based adaptive measures for the most vulnerable. Through content analysis of local government documents in two major Australian cities, this paper assesses the extent of action and identifies trends and strategies in relation to social adaptation. Findings indicate varying levels of action and some examples of “best practice,” but overall, evidence indicates more effort is needed at the community level. The role of the social work profession in challenging and broadening discourse is also explored especially in terms of highlighting the social impacts of climate change in future policy development, community action, and initiatives.     

Analysing responses to climate change through the lens of reflexivity

Sociologists are increasingly directing attention toward social responses to climate change. As is true of any new field of inquiry, theoretical frameworks guiding the research to date have room for improvement. One advance could be achieved through closer engagement with Reflexivity Theory, particularly the work of Margaret Archer, who asks just how individuals come to give attention to certain problems, and formulate responses to them. Individuals vary significantly in regard to their understanding of and concern for anthropogenic climate change, and these standpoints in turn influence commitment to mitigation and adaptation. The emergent social interactions among all such agents in turn influence the morphogenetic trajectories through which social structures will evolve, but the role of ‘meta‐reflexives’ is particularly crucial. Identifying pathways of individual climate change reflexivity can make a valuable contribution to our understanding of the potential for and nature of collective responses. In this paper, I explore climate change reflexivity, with particular attention to climate change meta‐reflexives, through a qualitative analysis of personal interviews with residents of two small communities in Alberta, Canada. Applying Reflexivity Theory to this context articulates dimensions of reflexive processing not elaborated in current theoretical treatments, including future outlook and comfort with uncertainty, among others.     

Promoting Resilient Livelihoods through Adaptive Social Protection: Lessons from 124 programmes in South Asia

Adaptive Social Protection refers to efforts to integrate social protection (SP), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA), the need for which is increasingly recognised by practitioners and academics. Relying on 124 agricultural programmes implemented in five countries in Asia, this article considers how these elements are being brought together, and explores the potential gains of these linkages. It shows that full integration is still relatively limited but that, when it occurs, it helps to shift the time horizon beyond short‐term interventions aimed at supporting peoples' coping strategies and/or graduation objectives, towards longer‐term interventions that can help promote transformation towards climate and disaster resilient livelihood options.     

The evolution of the policy environment for climate change migration in Bangladesh: Competing narratives,coalitions and power

In spite of an enormous increase in attention to climate migration in Bangladesh, institutional weaknesses have meant that unplanned migration has triggered social issues. This situation requires investigation of the main challenges and opportunities in institutional capacity and policy development for climate change induced migration. Drawing on different narratives, networks and power status of stakeholders, this study identifies two competing coalitions: ‘in‐situ’ coalition, which shares the belief that migration is a failure of adaptation, and ‘ex‐situ’ coalition adhering to the emerging slogan of “migration as adaptive strategy.” The differentiated powers of two coalitions to some extent leave the agenda of climate migration in the policy domain as a subject of informal institutional capacity rather than a formal regulatory framework. Consequently, the evolution of the policy environment for climate migration depends on how effectively a greater policy space is determined by narratives, coalitions and power. Through a political economy lens, this article seeks to clarify the potential approaches to extending the policy space regarding climate migration in Bangladesh, first by improving ideological pluralism in international climate change finance, and, second, enhancing the bottom‐up process for resource mobilization. In short, the evolution of the policy environment for climate change largely depends on the political power of the ‘ex‐situ’ coalition.     

Narrating political opportunities: explaining strategic adaptation in the climate movement

This article advances theory on social movements’ strategic adaptation to political opportunity structures by incorporating a narrative perspective. Our theory explains how people acquire and use knowledge about political opportunity structures through storytelling about the movement’s past, present, and imagined future. The discussion applies the theory in an ethnographic case study of the climate movement’s mobilization around the UN Climate Summit in Paris, 2015. This analysis demonstrates how a dominant narrative of defeat about the prior protest campaign in Copenhagen, 2009 shaped the strategizing process. While those who experienced Copenhagen as a success preferred strategic continuity, those who experienced defeat developed a “Copenhagen narrative” to advance strategic adaptation by projecting previously experienced threats and opportunities onto the Paris campaign. Yet by relying on a retrospective narrative, movement actors tended to overlook emerging political opportunities. We demonstrate that narrative analysis is a useful tool for understanding the link between structure and agency in social movements and other actors affected by (political) opportunity structures.

     

Vulnerability to climate change in rural Saskatchewan: Case study of the Rural Municipality of Rudy No. 284

With the likelihood of future changes in climate and climate variability, it is important to understand how human systems may be vulnerable. Rural communities in Saskatchewan having agricultural-based economies are particularly dependent on climate and could be among the most vulnerable human systems in Canada. Future changes in climate are likely to have significant impacts on rural livelihoods, and rural populations will face the challenge of coping with climate change in light of a multitude of other changing socio-economic and environmental conditions. The Rural Municipality of Rudy No. 284 was chosen as a case study due to its access to irrigation, a key tool in climate adaptation for the agricultural system in the area against one of its most notorious climatic features - severe multi-year droughts. Further irrigation development would continue to reduce climate vulnerabilities. Even with irrigation however, the compounding effects of climate and other socio-economic changes will likely require modifications in current practices and policies in order to secure adequate livelihoods. Climate change adaptation in the RM must ensure equitable access to water and potentially irrigation, reduce barriers to collaboration when addressing communal problems, and provide more certainty in government programs.     

大学生时间管理倾向与社会适应能力的关系研究

为了探求大学生时问管理倾向与社会适应能力的关系，为提高大学生的社会适应能力提供一定的理论基础，采用青少年时间管理倾向量表和社会适应能力测试量表对重庆市大学生进行调查。结果显示时间管理倾向对大学生的社会适应能力有重要影响。     

Forced Migration,Climate Change,Mitigation and Adaptive Policies in Mexico: Some Functional Relationships

Natural disasters related to hydro-meteorological events have increased during the last few decades, both in frequency and severity. Mexico is heavily exposed to climate change, but has also suffered in the past from climate variability ( Blümel, 2009 ). The new risks oblige the government to develop mitigation processes, while the affected people are implementing strategies of adaptation and resilience-building, mostly at the family and community level. This includes forced migration due to climate change into the slums of megacities or illegal immigration to the United States. The arid, semi-arid and subhumid condition of 49.2 per cent of the territory of Mexico is seriously affected by climate change. In addition, poverty and the lack of jobs have created complex livelihood situations, in which young people leave rural areas, partly due to socio-economic pull factors. In this paper, we address the functional relationships between climate patterns and migration processes in Mexico, highlighting the linkages between the origin of migrants, their economic activity and their vulnerability to extreme events and we discuss long-term climate patterns. Agriculture still uses 78 per cent of the available water in Mexico. In the drylands the competition for water use requires an integrated policy to deal with the new threats from climate change, including mitigation from the top down and adaptation processes from the bottom up to reduce the social vulnerability of the rural population in the highly affected drylands of the central and northern parts of Mexico. The new policy for administering water resources, which promotes the efficient use of an increasingly scarce and polluted resource, still suffers from a lack of participation by the affected rural population. In this paper, we propose an integrated management system from the watershed onwards, involving socio-economic, political, cultural and hydrological variables, to deal with the rising scarcity of water, and the uncertainty and complexity of climate change.