Wages Differences Between Temporary and Permanent Immigrants1

Temporary “guestworker” programs are often assumed to have less impact on native-born workers than permanent immigration. However, there are theoretical reasons to expect temporary immigrants to accept lower wages and thus for temporary migration to have a greater adverse impact on receiving country wages. This article develops these theoretical insights and tests for differences in wages paid to temporary and permanent undocumented Mexican immigrants. Survey data from Mexico shows that temporary immigrants earned wages about 12% lower than permanent immigrants. Controlling for human and social capital, a 7.4% difference in wages remains. Among married immigrants, temporary immigrants earn 9.6% lower wages with these same controls.     

The Effect of Immigration from Mexico on Social Capital in the United States

Has mass migration from Mexico since the 1980s contributed to a well‐documented decline in US social capital? Theories linking ethnic diversity to lower social cohesion and participation (e.g., Putnam 2007, 30, 137) would strongly predict this effect. Yet the impact of immigration in particular, rather than ethno‐racial diversity generally, on US social capital has not been examined. Assessing the impact of immigration is important because some have speculated that associations between measures of diversity and social capital found in the United States are a byproduct of the country's distinctively fraught history of black–white relations. This scope condition would greatly limit the applicability of Putnam's thesis. To assess the impact of Mexican immigration, this study leverages a dynamic measure of social capital and an instrumental variables design. The results address an important recent methodological critique of the broader literature and strongly corroborate the hypothesis that immigration erodes social capital.     

A COUNTRY RISK INDEX: ECONOMETRIC FORMULATION AND AN APPLICATION TO MEXICO

Dynamic factor analysis is used to estimate a monthly country risk index for Mexico. This method extracts the unobservable risk information contained in deviations from interest rate parity and allows for hypothesis tests regarding the important determinants of such risk. The results suggest that the ratios of imports to reserves and debt to exports are important determinants of Mexican country risk. The estimated risk index correctly anticipates the Mexican capital controls and financial crisis of August 1982. In addition, the index significantly leads the country risk rating published by Institutional Investor based on commercial bank surveys.     

Social Capital is Associated with Earnings among Foreign‐born Mexican Men but not Women in Los Angeles County

The mechanisms through which social capital is accumulated may influence its relationship with hourly earnings. Because Mexican men and women accumulate social capital differently, for instance, gender may be an important factor for understanding social capital’s association with Mexican migrant earnings. Unlike past research that often fails to differentiate between various social capital metrics (e.g., social network member reciprocity, participation in civic group organizations, neighbourhood trust), this article estimates two of these associations with wages while controlling for individual‐, household‐ and neighbourhood‐level characteristics. Results suggest that foreign‐born Mexican men receive a wage premium from civic participation (bridging social capital) and a wage penalty from reciprocal social network exchange (bonding social capital). We also find that unauthorized legal status (among Mexican men and all migrants) and having children (among women) were negatively associated with hourly wages. We conclude with a discussion of the relative association of human and social capital with Mexican migrant wages.     

Nationality and Income Attainment among Native and Immigrant Hispanic Men in the United States*

This study examines earnings inequality between Hispanic-origin men and non-Hispanic white men (referred to as white) using the 1976 Survey of Income and Education. Results show that human capital and labor supply variables have more impact on Hispanic earnings than labor market characteristics. Post-school job experience and weeks worked conform most consistently to the predictions of micro-economic labor theory. Formal schooling, while positively related to earnings, does not uniformly influence job rewards among Hispanic-origin groups. Ecological variables (social and economic organization) of the labor market have less impact on earnings. There is some evidence that whites benefit from the presence of large concentrations of minority workers, while two Hispanic groups—native Mexican and other Spanish men—are negatively affected by high concentrations of Hispanic workers. A composition analysis shows that from 10 to 50 percent of the earnings gap between Hispanic and white men may be attributable to discrimination.     

THE EFFECT OF NONCONTRIBUTORY PENSIONS ON SAVING IN MEXICO

This paper examines the effects of noncontributory pension programs at the federal and state levels on Mexican households' saving patterns using micro data from the Mexican Income and Expenditure Survey. We find that the federal program curtails saving among households whose oldest member is either 18–54 or 65–69 years old, possibly through anticipation effects, a decrease in the longevity risk faced by households, and a redistribution of income between households of different generations. Specifically, these households appear to be reallocating income away from saving into human capital investments, like education and health. Generally, state programs have neither significant effects on household saving, nor does the combination of federal and state programs. Finally, with a few exceptions, noncontributory pensions have no significant impact on the saving of households with members 70 years of age or older—individuals eligible for those pensions, plausibly because of their dissaving stage in the lifecycle. (JEL D14, J26, O12, H55)     

The Efficacy and Impact of the Alien Transfer Exit Programme: Migrant Perspectives from Nogales,Sonora, Mexico

The Alien Transfer Exit Programme (ATEP) is a US deportation strategy created in 2008 whereby migrants are returned to border regions of Mexico distant from their initial place of apprehension. The goal of this strategy is to geographically separate migrants from their coyotes [paid crossing guide], who are often waiting for them in Mexico, in an attempt to discourage people from attempting additional border crossings. The official government stance concerning this programme is that it is both effective at deterring migration and that it protects migrants from abusive coyotes who often “force” them to cross the harsh Sonoran desert. The effectiveness of this new policy or its impact on the experiences of migrants has yet to be examined. Using a combination of ethnography and archaeology, I describe ATEP and its impacts on the social process of border crossing with an emphasis on the experiences of migrants who have been deported from California to the Mexican border town of Nogales. I argue that recent formalized deportation strategies such as ATEP build on previous lateral relocation programmes that have long been ineffective at slowing migration. In addition, ATEP contributes to sustaining previous migration control policies of exclusion (based on age, gender, and health) that now produce new dangers for both those included and excluded from this programme. ATEP should be viewed as an enforcement strategy aimed at systematically placing migrants in harm's way by relocating them geographically and by undermining the resources (i.e., human and social capital) that people have come to rely on for successful (and safer) border crossings. These findings contribute to the growing literature on the anthropology of deportation and the critical phenomenology of illegality.     

Designing a Programme to Support Smallholder Agriculture in Mexico: Lessons from PROCAMPO and Oportunidades

This article argues that there is a gap in current Mexican rural development policy that could be filled by a smallholder‐targeted programme. The gap exists because agricultural programmes tend to benefit better‐off farmers, while social programmes tend to focus on long‐term investment in human capital, specifically for the children of today's poor. Drawing on lessons from PROCAMPO and Oportunidades, it offers a specific design for such a programme at a time when the government is considering how to reform PROCAMPO, given that, after 15 years, it is due to come to an end.     

The emotional toll of out‐migration on mothers and fathers left behind in Mexico

A growing body of research examines how families are affected by international migration; yet, implications for family members who remain behind are less well understood. Recent studies highlight implications for wives and young children when Mexican men migrate to the US, but have not yet adequately addressed the unique perspectives across the intergenerational family system, including the impact on parents when their adult children migrate. The current qualitative study explores the perceptions of transnational family ties among five focus groups (N=28) consisting of mothers and fathers of migrants in Mexico. An inductive, comparative method was used to identify emerging themes related to the emotional toll that parents of migrants experience. Salient themes included sadness, longing, guilt, and worry. The perceptions and expression of these emotions varied between mothers and fathers. Findings highlight the unique impact and distinct policy implications of Mexican familial transnationalism on parents who remain behind.     

Determinants of Savings, Remittances, and Spending Patterns among U.S. Migrants in Four Mexican Communities

In this paper we attempt to overcome several weaknesses of earlier field studies of the effect of international migration on sending communities. In general, these studies fail to employ representative samples of migrants, specify theoretical models of decision-making, or control for a variety of individual and household characteristics likely to affect how migrants dispose of their earnings, including sample selectivity. Representative samples of Mexican migrants from four sending communities are used to estimate a theoretical model that controls for a variety of individual, family, and trip characteristics; other stages of the analysis also control for sample selectivity. The findings suggest that migrant decision-making is strongly and consistently determined by social capital and community membership, with other variables playing ancillary roles in different decision processes. The propensities to save, remit, and invest productively generally rose as ties to the United States increased, and were generally higher in communities with well-developed local economies.     

“新金融”发展态势及上海的鼓励政策研究

中国式"新金融"规模不断扩大,对中国经济发展和宏观调控产生了重要影响。它在一定程度上使得经济增长与实体经济背离,也未能完全解决中小企业融资难问题。当前政策的出发点,不应仅出于控制金融风险而对"新金融"加以限制,更多的还是应考虑如何加大力度引导资金流向中小企业等实体经济。上海"新金融"政策定位,应借助"新金融"体系,引导社会资金流向实体经济,并以金融支持科技创新和产业升级转型为重点,以活跃和繁荣金融机构和中介服务体系为抓手,构建上海"新金融"鼓励政策。     

Immigration Policy and Employment Conditions of US Immigrants from Mexico, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic1

Prior studies suggest that the passage of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) in 1986 signalled a deterioration in the labour market conditions of Mexican migrants. In this paper, we examine whether and how labour market conditions worsened for Dominicans and Nicaraguans after 1986, and the extent to which these shifts were comparable to those experienced by Mexicans. Our analysis relies on a new source of data that offers comparable data across the three national origins. We estimate multivariate models that capture the effects of demographic attributes, human and social capital, migration‐specific human and social capital, legal status, period of trip, national origin, and other controls on the hourly wages earned by household heads and whether they received cash wages on their last US trip. Models with interaction terms reveal significant pre‐ and post‐1986 wage effects, but few differences in these effects between Mexicans and Dominicans or Nicaraguans. In contrast, group differences appear in the risk of cash receipt of wages. Dominicans and Nicaraguans experienced a greater increase in this risk relative to Mexicans pre‐ and post‐1986. Together, these findings depict a broader, negative impact of IRCA on Latino migrant wages than has been documented elsewhere.     

The U.S. Destinations of Contemporary Mexican Immigrants1

Although U.S. Latinos continue to be concentrated in particular places, many have shifted to “new” locations around the country. This study employs data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP107) to examine the relationship between individual‐level characteristics and diverse U.S. destinations chosen by post‐1965 Mexican immigrants. Multinomial logistic regression analyses confirm the importance of human capital, social networks, and temporal context in directing immigrants to particular U.S. sites. The findings also suggest that employing a typology of U.S. destinations is useful for understanding the spatial distributions of contemporary Mexican immigrants.     

Tax Uncertainty and Investment: A Cross-Country Empirical Examination

An empirical examination of uncertain tax policy is crucial to a full understanding of the interplay between taxes and investment, especially given the ambiguities in the limited theoretical literature. This article empirically investigates the impact on investment of volatility in effective tax rates on capital income in a cross-section of the 15 countries of the European Union, the United States, and Japan. Panel regression results suggest that the volatility of effective tax rates on capital income has a significant negative impact on investment per worker, with elasticities ranging from −0.012 to −0.029.     

Building Bridges into the Community: Social Capital in a Volunteering Project for Care Leavers

Volunteering to address poor life outcomes often experienced by care leavers is emphasised in UK policy. Although volunteering is credited with the ability to generate social capital, there is limited research on the impact of volunteering on the social capital of care leavers. This article re‐examines data from an evaluation of a volunteering project for care leavers. It explores in what ways young people's participation in the project constitutes social capital. The findings support the importance of regular face‐to‐face contact and co‐production for young people to become creators of their own social capital.     

Policy Disciplining Effect of Capital Account Openness in India

In this paper, the policy disciplining effect of capital account openness in India is examined by examining the impact of capital account openness on inflation and fiscal deficit. Multivariate modeling, which includes other relevant variables identified in the literature, is used for the analysis. Our results show capital account openness has a strong disciplining effect on inflation whereas it has no significant effect on fiscal deficit. In the case of fiscal deficit, trade openness and number of government changes only are the significant determinants. The moves of the RBI tend to reaffirm the disciplinary effect of capital account openness. In the meantime, since the mid 1990s, RBI kept a strict vigil over inflation and inflation expectations in the context of a more open capital account. One major reason for the problem concerning inflation expectation by RBI is the threat of capital outflow in the face of loose monetary policy and high inflation.     

The political and socioeconomic context of legal and illegal Mexican migration to the United States (1942-1984)

The US manpower shortage in industry and agriculture during World War II, combined with Mexico's burden of an excess number of unemployed laborers, provided the basis for serious labor negotiations between the US and Mexico. The result was the Bracero Agreement of 1942, a bilateral agreement involving annual quotas for the temporary hiring of Mexican braceros. On the surface the program worked well. However, there were points of contention between the 2 countries: 1) in opposition to Mexico's policy of placing recruitment centers in the interior of the country, US policy called for placing the centers near the border, to reduce transportation costs; 2) Texas, which received no braceros because of racial discrimination, relied upon illegal aliens for manual labor; 3) Texas flagrantly violated a 1948 agreement when the Border Patrol welcomed aliens across the river despite Mexican officials' threats to close the border; 4) legal braceros were confronted with competition from illegals who were willing to work for a lower wage; 5) in 1954, the Border patrol physically helped aliens across the border, while Mexican policy were physically restraining them; 6) with the conclusion of a new Bracero agreement in March 1954, illegal aliens were no longer needed, so more than 1 million were apprehended and deported to Mexico's interior. The termination of the Bracero Program in 1964 gave new impetus to illegal trafficking and the number of illegals apprehended began to increase steadily in 1965. The migration flow after 1964 was influenced by the following socioeconomic conditions in Mexico: 1) unemployment, 2) very large disparities in income distribution, 3) a discrimination of the rural sector in favor of the urban in the allocation of government funds, and 4) a dependency on foreign capital and technology. Also, it was cheap labor for the US. Neither the US nor Mexico has adopted policies related to either economic development or immigration that would systematically curtail or regulate the flow of Mexican migrants to the US. However, conflicting pressures limit the policy-making process. President Carter was limited in his policy options by the needs of large-scale commercial agriculture. President Reagan's idea of a guest-worker program did not develop into legislation. Mexico's Lopez Portillo administration counted on migration to the US as a substitute for redistributive land reform in its handling of rural political pressures; the migratory flow functioned as an "escape valve" helping to dilute the effects of rapid demographic increase and preserving the status quo.     

Beyond 3×1: Linking Sending and Receiving Societies in the Development Process

In this paper, I explore the possibilities of linking and expanding existing sending and receiving countries' initiatives that mobilize immigrants to participate in the development process of their countries of origin in such a way as to advance two main goals of such initiatives: (1) to multiply their developmental impact in sending regions; and (2) to help increase the social and political capital of immigrants and immigrant associations, so as to facilitate both their role in the development of their countries of origin and also their integration in their host societies. In the paper, I will study the Mexican 3×1 programme and Spain's co‐development model and explore the ways in which programmes such as these could be ideally linked and implemented, in diverse contexts, in a way that is advantageous to both sending and receiving societies. The paper is based on research conducted over the past 9 years with Mexican immigrant associations in the United States; on interviews with Mexican government officials in Mexico and the United States; and on interviews conducted in 2008 and 2009 in Spain.     

The Impact of the Worker: How Social Capital and Human Capital Influence the Job Tenure of Formerly Undocumented Mexican Immigrants

Using the 1992 Legalized Population Survey, I focus on employment matching processes of formerly undocumented Mexican immigrant workers in the United States. As in earlier studies, I show that employment characteristics are related to the job tenures of immigrant workers. However, my contribution is that I specifically analyze how formerly undocumented Mexican immigrant workers' attributes and social networks influence their job tenures. In general, increases in human capital are associated with shorter job tenure, apparently in an effort to improve employment conditions, while the use of social capital is positively related with job tenure. It appears that acquiring employment is a social process, and those using personal networks find longer lasting jobs. Although prior studies have minimized the role of supply-side characteristics such as employees' skill level and social networks in influencing job tenure, my research confirms the significance of workers and the resources they bring to the labor market.     

EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND FISCAL DISCIPLINE: THE ROLE OF CAPITAL CONTROLS

How do exchange rate regimes influence fiscal discipline? This important question has typically been addressed exploiting the classic dichotomy of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes assuming perfect capital mobility. However, the role of capital controls cannot be neglected, particularly in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effects of capital controls on fiscal performance by focusing on dual exchange rate regimes. In a model in which the fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a nonbenevolent fiscal authority, dual regimes induce politicians to have higher fiscal deficits than under fixed and flexible regimes operating under perfect capital mobility. The model also shows this effect increases as fiscal authorities become more impatient. Dynamic panel regressions confirm that dual regimes lead to higher fiscal deficits than fixed and flexible regimes operating under unified rates. Using a dummy for pre‐electoral year as an indicator of fiscal authorities' shortsightedness, we also confirm that dual exchange rate has a more adverse effect on fiscal deficits as the authorities become more impatient. (JEL E50, E60, F31, F41)