Utility theory and the Bayesian paradigm

In this paper, a problem for utility theory - that it would have an agent who was compelled to play Russian Roulette with one revolver or another, to pay as much to have a six-shooter with four bullets relieved of one bullet before playing with it, as he would be willing to pay to have a six-shooter with two bullets emptied - is reviewed. A less demanding Bayesian theory is described, that would have an agent maximize expected values of possible total consequence of his actions. And utility theory is located within that theory as valid for agents who satisfy certain formal conditions, that is, for agents who are, in terms of that more general theory, indifferent to certain dimensions of risk. Raiffa- and Savage-style arguments for its more general validity are then resisted. Addenda are concerned with implications for game theory, and relations between utilities and values.     

On the economic foundations of decision theory

Theory and Decision - Economics bases the choice theory on the mental experiment that introduces the choice correspondence, which associates to every set of possible actions the subset of preferred...     

Poverty and economic decision making: a review of scarcity theory

Theory and Decision - Poverty is associated with a wide range of counterproductive economic behaviors. Scarcity theory proposes that poverty itself induces a scarcity mindset, which subsequently...     

A decision theory of clergy political behavior

Studies of clergy political behavior have used one of two empirical lenses to explain clergy actions—ideology and contextual influences. The first lens generally supposes that clergy behave according to their sincerely held preferences; the second takes personal ideology into account, but suggests that clergy are also subject to influence from the environment in which they serve. While both approaches have received adequate attention, there has been no attempt to develop a systematic decision theory outlining when and why clergy might elect to follow their ideological preferences in some cases, and respond to contextual influence in others. This research note proposes a decision theory based on work in the congressional behavior scholarship. It outlines the conditions under which clergy use their sincere preferences and reference group cues to determine their political behavior. It then tests these propositions using data from two national surveys of American clergy.     

Bayesian decision theory,rule utilitarianism,and Arrow's impossibility theorem

The first part of this paper reexamines the logical foundations of Bayesian decision theory and argues that the Bayesian criterion of expected-utility maximization is the only decision criterion consistent with rationality. On the other hand, the Bayesian criterion, together with the Pareto optimality requirement, inescapably entails a utilitarian theory of morality. The next sections discuss the role both of cardinal utility and of cardinal interpersonal comparisons of utility in ethics. It is shown that the utilitarian welfare function satisfies all of Arrow's social choice postulates avoiding the celebrated impossibility theorem by making use of information which is unavailable in Arrow's original framework. Finally, rule utilitarianism is contrasted with act utilitarianism and judged to be preferable for the purposes of ethical theory.     

From the manifestations of culture to the underlying sensemaking process. The contribution of semiotic cultural psychology theory to the interpretation of socio-political scenario

Several explanations of the current syndrome affecting advanced democracies make reference to a process of cultural change that has been triggered by the complex and interrelated phenomena known as globalization. The rise of populist-authoritarian parties, the advent of post-truth politics and the increasing dissatisfaction with democracy are seen by many political scientists as rather direct consequences of social and economic transformations which had changed the context in which the democratic process takes place. The main limitation of this literature is that it treats culture as a black box receiving inputs from the social context and translate them into political consequences. By doing so it cannot explain why the same conditions produce different consequences in different contexts and it is silent on the criteria to develop anti-crisis policies. This article argues that some of the insights offered by the Semiotic Cultural Psychology Theory, most notably the idea that cultural evolution is moved by the need to find affect-laden, simplified interpretations of the reality to restore the capacity of making sense on an uncertain socio-political context, can enhance the ability of political scientists to understand the current political phenomena and to develop methodological criteria to counteract the current scenario of democratic crisis.     

Social work and social problems: A contribution from systems theory and constructionism

Social work builds its identity on social problems. The goal is to generate knowledge about causes, consequences and solutions. However, there is a lack of theory of social problems. We suggest that research on social problems can benefit by ‘bringing the observer in’: Loseke's constructionist framework and Luhmann's systems theory. According to Loseke, social problems appear differently when constructed by different observers. Constructions vary in terms of morality, conditions, victims/villains and solutions. From Luhmann we learn that modern society consists of a multitude of social systems (e.g. politics, science, economy etc.), each operating with their own communicative codes. Combining both approaches, we hypothesise that any social system constructs its own (version of) social problems. Illustrating with the empirical case ‘suicide among mentally ill people’, we examine how a phenomenon is constructed differently as a social problem by four different social systems: the disability movement, politics, medicine and social work.     

What can the regression model of human judgment learn from multi-attribute decision theory?

Zeleny's recent conjecture that multi-attribute decision theory may help to overcome the inadequacies of the linear regression model is incorrect. Recognition of the information processing advantages inherent in multiple -attribute decision situations combined with a requirement of transitivity itself implies linear objective functions. This follows from some recent developments by a psychologist and an economist in the analysis of individual and collective decision processes, developments which do not take as their starting point the paradigm of choice offered in utility theory.     

Working with creative creatures: towards a Christian paradigm for social work theory, with some practical implications

Summary In a previous article (Bowpitt, 1998), I examined the role ofEvangelical Christianity as a neglected feature in the historicalorigins of social work in Britain, arguing that the secularhumanist paradigm that came to dominate the profession for thebulk of the twentieth century goes a long way towards explainingthat neglect but that the challenging of that dominant paradigmmay throw light on the recent revival of interest in the importanceof religion to social work. The present article seeks to followup this historical narrative with a normative considerationof what a Christian theological perspective might imply forsocial work theory and practice today. It does so in the contextof an examination of some traditional philosophical difficultieswhich social work thinkers have encountered with the relationshipbetween the theoretical and ethical foundations of social work.It then argues for an over-arching theoretical account of humannature as a possible way of overcoming these difficulties, andoutlines the main features of a Christian theological anthropologyas providing just such an account. It finishes by looking atsome implications for a Christian approach to social work practice.     

Helping patients and physicians reach individualized medical decisions: theory and application to prenatal diagnostic testing

This paper presents a procedure designed to aid physicians and patients in the process of making medical decisions, and illustrates its implementation to aid pregnant women, who decided to undergo prenatal diagnostic test choose a physician to administer it. The procedure is based on a medical decision-making model of Karni (J Risk Uncertain 39: 1–16, 2009). This model accommodates the possibility that the decision maker’s risk attitudes may vary with her state of health and incorporates other costs, such as pain and inconvenience, associated with alternative treatments. The medical decision problem was chosen for its relative simplicity and the transparency it affords.     

On some aspects of decision theory under uncertainty: rationality,price-probabilities and the Dutch book argument

Theory and Decision - Choice under uncertainty is treated in economics by different approaches. We can distinguish three of them, two of which concern individual choice, while the third frames...     

A paradox in decision theory and some experimental results: The relative nature of decisions

A simple two-choice single outcome valued decision under risk is presented which should show up the limitations in the classical approach of von Neumann, its extensions and its alternatives. An empirical testing of this hypothesis strongly supports this criticism. A rationale for explaining the apparent irrational decision is put forward and the case is made for understanding the relative nature of decision choices especially when multi-criteria are involved.     

A Romerian contribution to the empirics of economic growth

Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) made the Solovian set up widely used to test the determinants of economic growth and the speed of convergence. In accordance with the nature of the Solow framework, almost all empirical growth studies considered technological progress constant and identical across countries and over time, and hence underemphasized its role. In this study, in order to overcome this weakness, we propose that the Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) set-up should be replaced by the Solovianized Romer (1990) framework, thus allowing the role of technology to be considered in the empirical analysis. In particular, within this framework, the growth rate of technology varies across economies and over time. We estimate the convergence equation derived from Solovianized Romer model for 31 OECD countries for the period 1980–2008 by applying the system GMM approach. The empirical findings of the model support the conditional convergence hypothesis, but reveal a lower convergence rate than that predicted by the existing literature. As a policy implication, we argue that, investment in R&D and human capital are important determinants of convergence, and in cases where economies are unable to allocate sufficient resources to R&D, policy makers should ease the diffusion of technology (e.g., via FDI or trade) in order to retain a high convergence rate.     

An application of social choice theory to U.S.D.A. forest service decision making

To meet the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, the U.S.D.A. Forest Service has changed the way forest plans are developed. The focus of this paper is to address the group-decision problem using social choice theory, specifically the voting models of Condorcet and Borda. The elements of a social choice problem are voters, alternatives, preferences, and aggregation. A case study from the Shoshone National Forest is used to demonstrate the use of the voting models from social choice theory. The solutions derived from the analysis are strategy and coalitional strategy proof implying that behaviors intended to influence the outcome, such as vote trading, would be unsuccessful.     

The contribution of environmental,social, and governance disclosure to a sustainable economy

This article discusses ways that environmental, social, and governance disclosure can promote transition to a sustainable economy by paving the way for better business operations. It presents a conceptual analysis and identifies how environmental, social, and governance disclosures actuate corporate sustainability and contribute to a sustainable economy. It also offers a sustainability framework for companies transitioning to a sustainable economy.     

The foundations of decision theory: An intuitive,operational approach with mathematical extensions

A new axiomatic basis for the foundations of decision theory is introduced and its mathematical development outlined. The system combines direct intuitive operational appeal with considerable structural flexibility in the resulting mathematical framework.