International labor migration and domestic labor supply

Prominent among the variety of issues raised by the immigration of labor are its effects on domestic wage rates and labor supply. In contrast to the existing literature, this paper constructs a dynamic, general equilibrium framework to study the relationship between international labor migration and domestic labor supply. The general equilibrium nature of the model enables us to endogenize the pattern of labor migration. The effect of labor migration on domestic wage rates and labor supply is shown to depend on the pattern of labor migration. If the substitution effect dominates the income effect in labor supply, the domestic supply of labor necessarily decreases in response to an inflow of migrants. This happens even if immigrants, through their savings behavior, cause an increase in the domestic capital-labor ratio and wage rate. Similarly, if the dominant effect is the income effect, the immigration of labor necessarily increases the domestic supply of labor.I wish to thank Oded Galor, Harl Ryder, Kalpana Kochhar and two referees for valuable comments. The opinions expressed in this paper are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Joel Popkin and Company.     

An analysis of public opinion toward undocumented immigration

Public opinion toward illegal migration to the United States varies considerably across different segments of the population, but little is known about why some individuals hold more liberal attitudes than others. Several hypotheses are scattered throughout the research literature, but they have not been brought together in one place and tested using a common data set. Nor have the limited tests been satisfactory from a methodological standpoint. Instead of using multiple regression, typically analysts have relied on cross-tabulations of the data. This paper tests five hypotheses about attitudes toward illegal immigration and undocumented migrants using public opinion data from southern California. Only weak support is found for a labor market competition hypothesis. There is firmer evidence for hypotheses relating to cultural affinity between respondents and undocumented migrants and to the role of education. Respondents' evaluations of tangible costs and benefits to themselves also influence their assessments of illegal immigration. Finally, the results of this analysis provide additional support for a symbolic politics model of opinion formation when the model is extended to the issue of undocumented migration to the United States.     

Japanese response to an aging labor force

Slowing population growth in Japan has led to concern about aging of the labor force in the context of the seniority wage and lifetime employment systems. There is no question that the labor force will age rapidly in the future. However, Japanese labor force institutions are more flexible than most Western observers have thought, and appropriate response to the changing demographic situation has already begun. The Japanese government and private enterprises are devising innovative policies for accommodating an older labor force.The author thanks the staff of the East-West Population Institute for assistance in the production of this article. In addition, the support of the Nihon University Population Research Institute is gratefully acknowledged.     

Choices or Constraints: Education of Migrant Children in Urban China

Population Research and Policy Review - China’s monumental volume of labor migration has led to a rise in the migrant children population in urban China. In this study, we examine school...     

Comparing migrants to non-migrants: The case of Dutch migration to New Zealand

We analyse post-war Dutch migration to New Zealand. We document that history, reflect on analytical and econometric modelling and then combine a sample of Dutch migrants in New Zealand with a representative sample of Dutch in The Netherlands to estimate wage equations and the determinants of the migration decision. We use the results for ex post evaluation of the migration decision.Joop Hartog is Fellow of IZA (Bonn), CESifo (München), AIAS and Tinbergen Institute (Amsterdam). Work on this project was begun when Hartog was Erskine Visitor at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch New Zealand. Rainer Winkelmann is Fellow of CEPR and IZA (Bonn). This paper is produced as part of a CEPR research programme on European Migration from Economic Analysis to Policy Response, supported by a grant from the Commission of the European Communities under its Human Capital and Mobility Programme (no. ERBCHRXCT940515).It was presented at the European Society for Population Economics meetings in Bonn, June 2000. We gratefully acknowledge comments by Justin Lee Tobias, Jacques Poot, Ed Vytlacil, an anonymous referee and Paul Schultz. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

Immigration and native migration in New York City, 1985–1990

The 1990 Public Use Micro Sample is used to analyze the relationship between immigration and outmigration of the native born in New York City. The study population is limited to native born males who lived in the five boroughs in 1985. The relationship between immigration and the probability of various kinds of moves is assessed using logistic regression. Results suggest that immigration has an insignificant effect on migratory behavior, with the exception of inter-borough migration. Unlike prior work, this study examines a single metro area, and does not limit itself to inter-state migration. These results are consistent with more recent work (Card 2001; Kritz et al. 2001), which has failed to find a positive labor market level effect of immigration on native migratory behavior. The inter-borough finding is consistent with the occurrence of voluntary residential segregation within the city, in which the native born move away from areas of immigrant concentration but do not leave the labor market, yet there is no direct evidence that this process occurred.     

Migration intentions and behavior: Decision making in a rural Philippine province

The relationship between intentions and behavior is basic to micro-level migration decision research. This study, set in the rural Philippine province of Ilocos Norte, provides evidence on personal and structural background factors and value-expectancy perceptions of place utility that predict migration intentions and behavior. Separate analyses are conducted for general intentions to move and for destination-specific migration intentions, the latter pertaining to both internal migration (Manila) and international migration (Hawaii). Logistic regression analyses applied to the data from a 1980–82 longitudinal survey show that the empirical models are highly efficient in explaining migration intentions but less efficient in explaining actual migration behavior in this Third World setting. Important explanatory variables for both intentions and behavior include family pressure to move or stay, family auspices at alternative destinations, money to move, prior migration experience, and the life cycle stage (marital status and age). However, the determinants of internal and international migration behavior are not the same. The data only partially support the Ajzen and Fishbein (1980) position that intentions are the dominant determinant of behavior. Personal and structural background factors are shown to exert independent direct effects on migration behavior.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. Research for this paper was supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, The Philippines, the East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Population Issues Research Center, University Park, PA. The other coinvestigators for this project are Fred Arnold, East-West Population Institute, and Benjamin V. Carino, University of the Philippines.     

Reforming electricity rates: Benefits to low-income households

The electricity rate reforms proposed in the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act reflect the quest for an energy policy which encourages conservation, efficiency, and equity. Focusing on equity concerns, this research examines the relative effectiveness of lifeline and time-of-day rates in easing the burden of rising household energy prices among the low-income population. Lifeline rates establish a minimum number of kilowatt hours (kWh) required for basic necessities and a special low rate for these kWh. Time-of-day rates provide lower electricity prices to those households using electricity during off-peak generating hours. The data indicate that lifeline rates would assist low-income households in general, with the greatest benefits going to poor households with small numbers of members and older heads of household. Time-of-day rates would immediately benefit smaller households and those with older household heads. Some lifestyle changes, in the form of appliance use patterns, would be required among the low-income population if they are to benefit from time-of-day rates.This research was supported by a Department of Energy grant from the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (DE-FG-01-79 RG 10220) to the National Energy Law and Policy Institute at the University of Tulsa.     

Elder Care and Migrant Labor in Europe: A Demographic Outlook

This article examines the demand for migrant labor in older‐adult care as one of the key aspects of the aging and migration nexus. It reviews the demographic determinants that have shaped demand for and provision of older‐adult care across Europe. Using the EU Labour Force Survey, new comparative estimates are generated on the employment of migrants in care occupations and the channels of entry into the European labor market. Projections on demand for and supply of care to the older population reveal a future gap in both formal and informal provision. It is shown that, owing to institutional, economic, and social constraints, the significant growth of the care workforce that will be required to meet the future needs of Europe's aging populations is unlikely to be achieved by relying exclusively on EU labor supply. The conclusions outline some implications for future immigration policies.     

Indigenous labor supply,sustenance organization,and population redistribution in nonmetropolitan america: An extension of the ecological theory of migration

The ecological theory of migration asserts that change in sustenance organization, to the extent that it produces changes in the opportunities for living, necessitates a change in population size. Migration may thus be viewed as a demographic response to the population’s need to reestablish a balance between its size and sustenance organization, thus attaining its best possible living standard. However, the levels of net in- or out-migration needed to restore the balance should be affected by the degree of positive or negative growth of the indigenous labor force population. We thus test the hypothesis that changes in opportunities for living will be balanced by net changes in the number of persons in the labor force, where this is a function of both indigenous labor supply and net migration.     

Internal Migration and Rural Inequalities in India

Population Research and Policy Review - The study examines the effects of seasonal and permanent migration on rural inequalities in India. We apply the counterfactual method to estimate income...     

Remittances in the Republic of Georgia: Correlates, Economic Impact, and Social Capital Formation

The economic impact of remittances on migrant-sending countries has been a subject of debate in the scholarly literature on migration. We consider the topic using a household-level approach. We use a new survey, “Georgia on the Move,” to examine migrant-level, household-level, and contextual variables associated with the probability that a household in the Republic of Georgia receives remittances. We then apply propensity score matching to estimate how remittances affect particular types of household expenditures, savings, labor supply, health, and other measures of well-being. Separate analysis of the subsample of households with a migrant currently abroad distinguishes the effects of remittances from the effects of migration as such. In Georgia, remittances improve household economic well-being without, for the most part, producing the negative consequences often suggested in the literature. We find evidence for an important aspect that has not been widely discussed in prior studies: remittances foster the formation of social capital by increasing the amount of money that households give as gifts to other households.     

Different Reasons,Different Results: Implications of Migration by Gender and Family Status

Previous research on migration and gendered career outcomes centers on couples and rarely examines the reason for the move. The implicit assumption is usually that households migrate in response to job opportunities. Based on a two-year panel from the Current Population Survey, this article uses stated reasons for geographic mobility to compare earnings outcomes among job migrants, family migrants, and quality-of-life migrants by gender and family status. We further assess the impact of migration on couples’ internal household economy. The effects of job-related moves that we find are reduced substantially in the fixed-effects models, indicating strong selection effects. Married women who moved for family reasons experience significant and substantial earnings declines. Consistent with conventional models of migration, we find that household earnings and income and gender specialization increase following job migration. Married women who are secondary earners have increased odds of reducing their labor supply following migration for job or family reasons. However, we also find that migrating women who contributed as equals to the household economy before the move are no more likely than nonmigrant women to exit work or to work part-time. Equal breadwinner status may protect women from becoming tied movers.     

Population growth,economic development and family planning

This report discusses research conducted to determine whether reduction in population growth rates contributed to the rapid economic growth of Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The 5-year research projects, jointly sponsored by the UN Fund for Population Activities, the Nihon University Population Research Institute, and the East-West Population Institute, concluded that development and family planning programs contributed substantially to fertility decline in these countries. The project examined 3 factors that influence the long-term productive capacity and growth of the 4 Asian economies: savings, the size of the labor force, and the quality of labor (measured by educational attainment). Available evidence indicates a strong positive contribution of population decline toward growth of savings, a growth in labor force concurrent with a decline in fertility rates which enables per capita income to rise, and an increase in 2ndary education enrollment ratios as fertility is lowered. Development factors by themselves explain no more than 1/2 of the decline in fertility observed, suggesting that family planning programs particularly in Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia since 1976 have had an important impact on fertility and economic development.     

Migration and Contraception among Mexican Women: Assessing Selection,Disruption, and Adaptation

Population Research and Policy Review - Despite the sizeable impact of migration on childbearing, less is known about how it shapes contraceptive use undergirding fertility. We utilize binational...     

Reducing the excess burden of subsidizing the stork: joint taxation, individual taxation, and family tax splitting

Analyzing a homogenous household setting with endogenous fertility and endogenous labor supply, we demonstrate that moving from joint taxation to individual taxation and adapting child benefits so as to keep fertility constant entails a Pareto improvement. The change is associated with an increase in labor supply and consumption and a reduction of the marginal income tax, while the child benefit may move in either direction. Similarly, a move from joint taxation to some scheme of family tax splitting increases labor supply and welfare.     

Settlement policies and the economic success of immigrants

Many countries use settlement policies to direct the inflow of immigrants away from immigrant dense areas. We evaluate a reform of Swedish immigration policy that featured the dispersion of refugee immigrants, but also a change in the approach to labor market integration. We focus on how immigrants fared because of the policy. The evaluation indicates that immigrants experienced substantial long run losses. The bulk of the effect stems from a common component that affected immigrants regardless of location. We interpret the common component as being related to a shift in policy focus, from labor market assimilation to income support.All correspondence to Per-Anders Edin. We thank two anonymous referees, Magnus Löfström, seminar participants at the Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation (IFAU), Uppsala University, Stockholm University, the Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), the Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IUI), and the CEPR conference on Marginal Labour Markets in Metropolitan Areas for valuable comments and Lisa Fredriksson for expert data assistance. We are also grateful to Sven Hjelmskog, Roland Jansson, Stig Kattilakoski, Christina Lindblom, Anders Nilsson, Kristina Sterne, and Lena Axelsson of the Immigration Board, and Anna Gralberg of the Ministry of Culture, who generously found time to answer our questions. This research has been partly financed through a grant from the Swedish Council for Work Life Research (RALF). Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.     

劳动力迁移过程中的农村留守老人照料问题研究

随着大量农村劳动力人口的外出务工,农村留守老人照料问题日益突出,2004年7月中国人民大学老年学研究所组织了大型“农村流出人口对老年人生活影响”的调查,以此为基础,探讨农村青年劳动力人口外流对农村老年人生活照料的影响。一方面照料提供者的减少,农业劳动、家务劳动等负担的增加加剧了农村留守老人的健康和日常生活照料问题;另一方面社会照料网络如农村基层组织、农村社区、志愿者等为留守老人提供的照料体系还不完善。随着社会的发展,社会网络对老年人提供的照料必将发挥越来越大的作用。我们不能因为农村劳动力外流弱化了家庭照料老人的功能而忽略了其对社会照料体系构建的作用。     

Period and cohort age patterns of US migration, 1948–1993: Are American males migrating less?

Population Research and Policy Review - Has the national intercounty migration level of American males been experiencing a decline over the past half-century? What differences in age patterns have...     

Standing on Their Own Two Feet: How the New Public Charge Rules Could Impact Non-European LPR Applicants

Population Research and Policy Review - In February 2020, the U.S. government began to implement a new Public Charge rule that greatly expands the definition of “public charge” when...