Factors influencing Soay sheep survival

We present a survival analysis of Soay sheep mark recapture and recovery data. Unlike previous conditional analyses, it is not necessary to assume equality of recovery and recapture probabilities; instead these are estimated by maximum likelihood. Male and female sheep are treated separately, with the higher numbers and survival probabilities of the females resulting in a more complex model than that used for the males. In both cases, however, age and time aspects need to be included and there is a strong indication of a reduction in survival for sheep aged 7 years or more. Time variation in survival is related to the size of the population and selected weather variables, by using logistic regression. The size of the population significantly affects the survival probabilities of male and female lambs, and of female sheep aged 7 or more years. March rainfall and a measure of the North Atlantic oscillation are found to influence survival significantly for all age groups considered, for both males and females. Either of these weather variables can be used in a model. Several phenotypic and genotypic individual covariates are also fitted. The only covariate which is found to influence survival significantly is the type of horn of first-year female sheep. There is a substantial variation in the recovery probabilities over time, reflecting in part the increased effort when a population crash was expected. The goodness of fit of the model is checked by using graphical procedures.     

A Conditional Approach for Regression Analysis of Longitudinal Data with Informative Observation Time and Non-negligible Observation Duration

Recently, there has been a great interest in the analysis of longitudinal data in which the observation process is related to the longitudinal process. In literature, the observation process was commonly regarded as a recurrent event process. Sometimes some observation duration may occur and this process is referred to as a recurrent episode process. The medical cost related to hospitalization is an example. We propose a conditional modeling approach that takes into account both informative observation process and observation duration. We conducted simulation studies to assess the performance of the method and applied it to a dataset of medical costs.     

Distribution-Free Runs Test for Conditional Symmetry

A distribution-free runs test for conditional symmetry is proposed. The null distribution of the test statistics is derived. Intensive simulation is conducted to examine the power of the proposed test for different sample sizes and different alternatives. Data on the bilirubin level of babies in neonatal intensive care is used to illustrate the method.     

Testing for state dependence in binary panel data with individual covariates by a modified quadratic exponential model

We propose a test for state dependence in binary panel data with individual covariates. For this aim, we rely on a quadratic exponential model in which the association between the response variables is accounted for in a different way with respect to more standard formulations. The level of association is measured by a single parameter that may be estimated by a Conditional Maximum Likelihood (CML) approach. Under the dynamic logit model, the conditional estimator of this parameter converges to zero when the hypothesis of absence of state dependence is true. Therefore, it is possible to implement a t-test for this hypothesis which may be very simply performed and attains the nominal significance level under several structures of the individual covariates. Through an extensive simulation study, we find that our test has good finite sample properties and it is more robust to the presence of (autocorrelated) covariates in the model specification in comparison with other existing testing procedures for state dependence. The proposed approach is illustrated by two empirical applications: the first is based on data coming from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and concerns employment and fertility; the second is based on the Health and Retirement Study and concerns the self reported health status.     

Linear Conditional Expectation for Discretized Distributions

Many statistical methods for continuous distributions assume a linear conditional expectation. Components of multivariate distributions are often measured on a discrete ordinal scale based on a discretization of an underlying continuous latent variable. The results in this paper show that common examples of discretized bivariate and trivariate distributions will have a linear conditional expectation. Examples and simulations are provided to illustrate the results.     

Conditional time-dependent nonparametric estimators with an application to healthcare production function

ABSTRACT

By using the probabilistic framework of production efficiency, the paper develops time-dependent conditional efficiency estimators performing a non-parametric frontier analysis. Specifically, by applying both full and quantile (robust) time-dependent conditional estimators, it models the dynamic effect of health expenditure on countries’ technological change and technological catch-up levels. The results from the application reveal that the effect of per capita health expenditure on countries’ technological change and technological catch-up is nonlinear and is subject to countries’ specific income levels.     

一类基于非参数回归的条件异方差检验

现有基于参数模型构造的条件异方差检验往往存在模型设定偏误问题。为了避免模型误设对检验结果的影响,并且同时捕获多种条件异方差现象,本文基于非参数回归构造了不依赖于特定模型形式的条件异方差检验统计量。该统计量可视作条件方差和无条件方差之间差异的加权平均,在原假设成立时渐近服从标准正态分布。数值模拟结果一方面表明本文统计量具有良好的有限样本性质,另一方面也说明条件均值模型误设会导致错误地拒绝条件同方差的原假设,凸显了本文引入非参数方法构造条件异方差检验的必要性。实证分析采用本文统计量探讨了国际主要股指收益率的条件异方差现象,得到了与Engle (1982)不同的检验结果,可能意味着股指收益率呈现出非线性动态特征。     

Identifying Preferences for Conditional Cooperation Using Individual Beliefs

The relationship between contributions and elicited beliefs in a repeated two-person public good experiment is modeled with the help of a parsimounious random-utility function that allows for conditionally cooperative, opportunistic, and altruistic patterns of behavior. Under standard assumptions, a latent-class mixed logit specification with three sub-populations is shown to capture well heterogeneity in individual contribution levels over time, while also accomodating for different degrees of heteroscedasticity. The estimation results are consistent with the conjecture that the majority of players in public goods games are strongly conditional cooperators, with smaller fractions of the population leaning to opportunistic or altruistic behavior.     

Conditional heteroscedasticity test for Poisson autoregressive model

In this article, the problem of interest is testing the conditional heteroscedasticity of Poisson autoregressive model. We construct a non parametric test statistic based on empirical likelihood method. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic is derived and its finite-sample property is examined through Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation results show that the proposed method is good for practical use.     

Asymptotic Results of a Nonparametric Conditional Quantile Estimator for Functional Time Series

We consider the estimation of the conditional quantile function when the covariates take values in some abstract function space. The main goal of this article is to establish the almost complete convergence and the asymptotic normality of the kernel estimator of the conditional quantile under the α-mixing assumption and on the concentration properties on small balls of the probability measure of the functional regressors. Some applications and particular cases are studied. This approach can be applied in time series analysis to the prediction and building of confidence bands. We illustrate our methodology with El Niño data.     

A Critical Review and a Comparative Study on Conditional Permutation Tests for Two-Way ANOVA

Two-way ANOVA methodology is surely one of the most important models in the framework of the experimental design theory, as suggested by the great number of proposed solutions given in literature. Among these, some solutions are nonparametric and particularly, thanks to the availability of modern powerful computing equipments, those based on conditional on observations permutation test have gained great interest. The aim of this work is to present and compare such proposals and to illustrate their possible advantages and disadvantages when applied to some real data-sets.     

Local M-estimation for Conditional Variance in Heteroscedastic Regression Models

In this article, we develop a local M-estimation for the conditional variance in heteroscedastic regression models. The estimator is based on the local linear smoothing technique and the M-estimation technique, and it is shown to be not only asymptotically equivalent to the local linear estimator but also robust. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the local M-estimator for the conditional variance in heteroscedastic regression models are obtained under mild conditions. The simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimators perform well in robustness.     

The Time-Varying-Parameter Model for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of the Lucas Hypothesis

The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas (1973) hypothesis in a time series context is estimation of the forecast-error variance conditional on past information. The conditional variance may vary through time as monetary policy evolves and agents are obliged to infer its present state. Under the assumption that a monetary policy regime is continuously changing, a time-varying-parameter model is proposed for the monetary-growth function. Based on Kalman-filtering estimation of recursive forecast errors and their conditional variances, the Lucas hypothesis is tested for the U.S. economy (1964:1–1985:4) using monetary growth as aggregate demand variable. The Lucas hypothesis is rejected in favor of Friedman's (1977) hypothesis—the conditional variance of monetary growth affects real output directly, not through the coefficients on the forecast-error term in the Lucas-type output equation.     

A Joint Test for Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Dynamic Panel Data Models

This article proposes a joint test for conditional heteroscedasticity in dynamic panel data models. The test is constructed by checking the joint significance of estimates of second to pth-order serial correlation in the squares sequence of the first differenced errors. To avoid any distribution assumptions of the errors and the effects, we adopt the GMM estimation for the parameter coefficient and higher order moment estimation for the errors. Based on the estimations, a joint test is constructed for conditional heteroscedasticity in the error. The resulted test is asymptotically chi-squared under the null hypothesis and easy to implement. The small sample properties of the test are investigated by means of Monte Carlo experiments. The evidence shows that the test performs well in dynamic panel data with large number n of individuals and short periods T of time. A real data is analyzed for illustration.     

Mixture separation for mixed-mode data

One possible approach to cluster analysis is the mixture maximum likelihood method, in which the data to be clustered are assumed to come from a finite mixture of populations. The method has been well developed, and much used, for the case of multivariate normal populations. Practical applications, however, often involve mixtures of categorical and continuous variables. Everitt (1988) and Everitt and Merette (1990) recently extended the normal model to deal with such data by incorporating the use of thresholds for the categorical variables. The computations involved in this model are so extensive, however, that it is only feasible for data containing very few categorical variables. In the present paper we consider an alternative model, known as the homogeneous Conditional Gaussian model in graphical modelling and as the location model in discriminant analysis. We extend this model to the finite mixture situation, obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the population parameters, and show that computation is feasible for an arbitrary number of variables. Some data sets are clustered by this method, and a small simulation study demonstrates characteristics of its performance.     

Semiparametric analysis of case series data

Summary.  The case series model for estimating the association between an age-dependent exposure and an outcome event requires information only on cases and implicitly adjusts for all age-independent multiplicative confounders, while allowing for an age-dependent base-line incidence. In the paper the model is presented in greater generality than hitherto, including more general discussion of its derivation, underlying assumptions, applicability, limitations and efficiency. A semiparametric version of the model is developed, in which the age-specific relative incidence is left unspecified. Modelling covariate effects and testing assumptions are discussed. The small sample performance of this model is studied in simulations. The methods are illustrated with several examples from epidemiology.     

Ignorability conditions for frequentist non parametric analysis of conditional distributions with incomplete data

Rubin (1976 Rubin, D.B. (1976). Inference and missing data. Biometrika 63(3):581–592.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) derived general conditions under which inferences that ignore missing data are valid. These conditions are sufficient but not generally necessary, and therefore may be relaxed in some special cases. We consider here the case of frequentist estimation of a conditional cdf subject to missing outcomes. We partition a set of data into outcome, conditioning, and latent variables, all of which potentially affect the probability of a missing response. We describe sufficient conditions under which a complete-case estimate of the conditional cdf of the outcome given the conditioning variable is unbiased. We use simulations on a renal transplant data set (Dienemann et al.) to illustrate the implications of these results.     

Conditional quantile estimation with auxiliary information for left-truncated and dependent data

In this paper, the empirical likelihood method is used to define a new estimator of conditional quantile in the presence of auxiliary information for the left-truncation model. The asymptotic normality of the estimator is established when the data exhibit some kind of dependence. It is assumed that the lifetime observations with multivariate covariates form a stationary α‐mixing sequence. The result shows that the asymptotic variance of the proposed estimator is not larger than that of standard kernel estimator. Finite sample behavior of the estimator is investigated via simulations too.     

Bayesian estimation of incomplete data using conditionally specified priors

In this article, a class of conjugate prior for estimating incomplete count data based on a broad class of conjugate prior distributions is presented. The new class of prior distributions arises from a conditional perspective, making use of the conditional specification methodology and can be considered as the generalization of the form of prior distributions that have been used previously in the estimation of incomplete count data well. Finally, some examples of simulated and real data are given.     

Monte carlo results for conditional survival tests under randomly censored data

Within a Monte Carlo study finite sample results are obtained for different generalized rank tests based on randomly censored life time data. It is pointed out that conditional tests should be applied in practice whenever drastic differences between the censoring distributions for the underlying groups do not appear. The tests are slight modifications of known permutation tests for censored data.