Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap

Abstract

We review the different block bootstrap methods for time series, and present them in a unified framework. We then revisit a recent result of Lahiri [Lahiri, S. N. (1999b). Theoretical comparisons of block bootstrap methods, Ann. Statist. 27:386–404] comparing the different methods and give a corrected bound on their asymptotic relative efficiency; we also introduce a new notion of finite-sample “attainable” relative efficiency. Finally, based on the notion of spectral estimation via the flat-top lag-windows of Politis and Romano [Politis, D. N., Romano, J. P. (1995). Bias-corrected nonparametric spectral estimation. J. Time Series Anal. 16:67–103], we propose practically useful estimators of the optimal block size for the aforementioned block bootstrap methods. Our estimators are characterized by the fastest possible rate of convergence which is adaptive on the strength of the correlation of the time series as measured by the correlogram.     

Extrapolation of subsampling distribution estimators: The i.i.d. and strong mixing cases

Politis & Romano (1994) proposed a general subsampling methodology for the construction of large‐sample confidence regions for an arbitrary parameter under minimal conditions. Nevertheless, the subsampling distribution estimators may sometimes be inefficient (in the case of the sample mean of i.i.d. data, for instance) as compared to alternative estimators such as the bootstrap and/or the asymptotic normal distribution (with estimated variance). The authors investigate here the extent to which the performance of subsampling distribution estimators can be improved by interpolation and extrapolation techniques, while at the same time retaining the robustness property of consistent distribution estimation even in nonregular cases; both i.i.d. and weakly dependent (mixing) observations are considered.     

A FINE-TUNED ESTIMATOR OF A GENERAL CONVERGENCE RATE

A general rate estimation method based on the in‐sample evolution of appropriately chosen diverging/converging statistics has recently been proposed by D.N. Politis [C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I, vol. 335, pp. 279–282, 2002] and T. McElroy & D.N. Politis [Ann. Statist., vol. 35, pp. 1827–1848, 2007]. In this paper, we show how a modification of the original estimators achieves a competitive rate of convergence. The modified estimators require the choice of a tuning parameter; an optimal such choice is generally a non‐trivial problem in practice. Some discussion to that effect is given, as well as a small simulation study in a heavy‐tailed setting.     

Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix

Approximation formulae are developed for the bias of ordinary and generalized Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) estimators in dynamic panel data models. Results from Kiviet [Kiviet, J. F. (1995), on bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, J. Econometrics68:53-78; Kiviet, J. F. (1999), Expectations of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model: some results for weakly exogenous regressors, In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L-F., Pesaran, M. H., eds., Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 199-225] are extended to higher-order dynamic panel data models with general covariance structure. The focus is on estimation of both short- and long-run coefficients. The results show that proper modelling of the disturbance covariance structure is indispensable. The bias approximations are used to construct bias corrected estimators which are then applied to quarterly data from 14 European Union countries. Money demand functions for M1, M2 and M3 are estimated for the EU area as a whole for the period 1991: I-1995: IV. Significant spillovers between countries are found reflecting the dependence of domestic money demand on foreign developments. The empirical results show that in general plausible long-run effects are obtained by the bias corrected estimators. Moreover, finite sample bias, although of moderate magnitude, is present underlining the importance of more refined estimation techniques. Also the efficiency gains by exploiting the heteroscedasticity and cross-correlation patterns between countries are sometimes considerable.     

Bootstrap mean squared error of a small-area EBLUP

Concerning the estimation of linear parameters in small areas, a nested-error regression model is assumed for the values of the target variable in the units of a finite population. Then, a bootstrap procedure is proposed for estimating the mean squared error (MSE) of the EBLUP under the finite population setup. The consistency of the bootstrap procedure is studied, and a simulation experiment is carried out in order to compare the performance of two different bootstrap estimators with the approximation given by Prasad and Rao [Prasad, N.G.N. and Rao, J.N.K., 1990, The estimation of the mean squared error of small-area estimators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85, 163–171.]. In the numerical results, one of the bootstrap estimators shows a better bias behavior than the Prasad–Rao approximation for some of the small areas and not much worse in any case. Further, it shows less MSE in situations of moderate heteroscedasticity and under mispecification of the error distribution as normal when the true distribution is logistic or Gumbel. The proposed bootstrap method can be applied to more general types of parameters (linear of not) and predictors.     

On approximate least squares estimators of parameters of one-dimensional chirp signal

Chirp signals are quite common in many natural and man-made systems such as audio signals, sonar, and radar. Estimation of the unknown parameters of a signal is a fundamental problem in statistical signal processing. Recently, Kundu and Nandi [Parameter estimation of chirp signals in presence of stationary noise. Stat Sin. 2008;75:187–201] studied the asymptotic properties of least squares estimators (LSEs) of the unknown parameters of a simple chirp signal model under the assumption of stationary noise. In this paper, we propose periodogram-type estimators called the approximate least squares estimators (ALSEs) to estimate the unknown parameters and study the asymptotic properties of these estimators under the same error assumptions. It is observed that the ALSEs are strongly consistent and asymptotically equivalent to the LSEs. Similar to the periodogram estimators, these estimators can also be used as initial guesses to find the LSEs of the unknown parameters. We perform some numerical simulations to see the performance of the proposed estimators and compare them with the LSEs and the estimators proposed by Lahiri et al. [Efficient algorithm for estimating the parameters of two dimensional chirp signal. Sankhya B. 2013;75(1):65–89]. We have analysed two real data sets for illustrative purposes.     

Doubly robust point and variance estimation in the presence of imputed survey data

Imputation is often used in surveys to treat item nonresponse. It is well known that treating the imputed values as observed values may lead to substantial underestimation of the variance of the point estimators. To overcome the problem, a number of variance estimation methods have been proposed in the literature, including resampling methods such as the jackknife and the bootstrap. In this paper, we consider the problem of doubly robust inference in the presence of imputed survey data. In the doubly robust literature, point estimation has been the main focus. In this paper, using the reverse framework for variance estimation, we derive doubly robust linearization variance estimators in the case of deterministic and random regression imputation within imputation classes. Also, we study the properties of several jackknife variance estimators under both negligible and nonnegligible sampling fractions. A limited simulation study investigates the performance of various variance estimators in terms of relative bias and relative stability. Finally, the asymptotic normality of imputed estimators is established for stratified multistage designs under both deterministic and random regression imputation. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 259–281; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Model selection and post estimation based on a pretest for logistic regression models

ABSTRACT

This article addresses the problem of parameter estimation of the logistic regression model under subspace information via linear shrinkage, pretest, and shrinkage pretest estimators along with the traditional unrestricted maximum likelihood estimator and restricted estimator. We developed an asymptotic theory for the linear shrinkage and pretest estimators and compared their relative performance using the notion of asymptotic distributional bias and asymptotic quadratic risk. The analytical results demonstrated that the proposed estimation strategies outperformed the classical estimation strategies in a meaningful parameter space. Detailed Monte-Carlo simulation studies were conducted for different combinations and the performance of each estimation method was evaluated in terms of simulated relative efficiency. The results of the simulation study were in strong agreement with the asymptotic analytical findings. Two real-data examples are also given to appraise the performance of the estimators.     

Nonparametric Quantile Estimation with Correlated Failure Time Data

In biomedical studies, correlated failure time data arise often. Although point and confidence interval estimation for quantiles with independent censored failure time data have been extensively studied, estimation for quantiles with correlated failure time data has not been developed. In this article, we propose a nonparametric estimation method for quantiles with correlated failure time data. We derive the asymptotic properties of the quantile estimator and propose confidence interval estimators based on the bootstrap and kernel smoothing methods. Simulation studies are carried out to investigate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators. Finally, we illustrate the proposed method with a data set from a study of patients with otitis media.     

Model selection and parameter estimation of a multinomial logistic regression model

In the multinomial regression model, we consider the methodology for simultaneous model selection and parameter estimation by using the shrinkage and LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operation) [R. Tibshirani, Regression shrinkage and selection via the LASSO, J. R. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 58 (1996), pp. 267–288] strategies. The shrinkage estimators (SEs) provide significant improvement over their classical counterparts in the case where some of the predictors may or may not be active for the response of interest. The asymptotic properties of the SEs are developed using the notion of asymptotic distributional risk. We then compare the relative performance of the LASSO estimator with two SEs in terms of simulated relative efficiency. A simulation study shows that the shrinkage and LASSO estimators dominate the full model estimator. Further, both SEs perform better than the LASSO estimators when there are many inactive predictors in the model. A real-life data set is used to illustrate the suggested shrinkage and LASSO estimators.     

Non parametric resampling for stationary Markov processes: The local grid bootstrap approach

A new resampling technique, referred as “local grid bootstrap” (LGB), based on nonparametric local bootstrap and applicable to a wide range of stationary general space Markov processes is proposed. This nonparametric technique resamples local neighborhoods defined around the true samples of the observed multivariate time serie. The asymptotic behavior of this resampling procedure is studied in detail. Applications to linear and nonlinear (in particular chaotic) simulated time series are presented, and compared to Paparoditis and Politis [2002. J. Statist. Plan. Inf. 108, 301–328] approach, referred as “local bootstrap” (LB) and developed in earlier similar works. The method shows to be efficient and robust even when the length of the observed time series is reasonably small.     

Interval estimation of the joint survival function for successive duration times under left truncation and right censoring

In incident cohort studies, survival data often include subjects who have had an initiate event at recruitment and may potentially experience two successive events (first and second) during the follow-up period. Since the second duration process becomes observable only if the first event has occurred, left truncation and dependent censoring arise if the two duration times are correlated. To confront the two potential sampling biases, we propose two inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) estimators for the estimation of the joint survival function of two successive duration times. One of them is similar to the estimator proposed by Chang and Tzeng [Nonparametric estimation of sojourn time distributions for truncated serial event data – a weight adjusted approach, Lifetime Data Anal. 12 (2006), pp. 53–67]. The other is the extension of the nonparametric estimator proposed by Wang and Wells [Nonparametric estimation of successive duration times under dependent censoring, Biometrika 85 (1998), pp. 561–572]. The weak convergence of both estimators are established. Furthermore, the delete-one jackknife and simple bootstrap methods are used to estimate standard deviations and construct interval estimators. A simulation study is conducted to compare the two IPW approaches.     

A Note on the Role of the Propensity Score for Estimating Average Treatment Effects

Hahn [Hahn, J. (1998). On the role of the propensity score in efficient semiparametric estimation of average treatment effects. Econometrica 66:315-331] derived the semiparametric efficiency bounds for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) and the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). The variance of ATET depends on whether the propensity score is known or unknown. Hahn attributes this to “dimension reduction.” In this paper, an alternative explanation is given: Knowledge of the propensity score improves upon the estimation of the distribution of the confounding variables.     

Estimation of a population size through capture-mark-recapture method: a comparison of various point and interval estimators

This article deals with the estimation of a fixed population size through capture-mark-recapture method that gives rise to hypergeometric distribution. There are a few well-known and popular point estimators available in the literature, but no good comprehensive comparison is available about their merits. Apart from the available estimators, an empirical Bayes (EB) estimator of the population size is proposed. We compare all the point estimators in terms of relative bias and relative mean squared error. Next, two new interval estimators – (a) an EB highest posterior distribution interval and (b) a frequentist interval estimator based on a parametric bootstrap method, are proposed. The comparison is then carried among the two proposed interval estimators and interval estimators derived from the currently available estimators in terms of coverage probability and average length (AL). Based on comprehensive numerical results, we rank and recommend the point estimators as well as interval estimators for practical use. Finally, a real-life data set for a green treefrog population is used as a demonstration for all the methods discussed.     

Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix

Abstract

Approximation formulae are developed for the bias of ordinary and generalized Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) estimators in dynamic panel data models. Results from Kiviet [Kiviet, J. F. (1995), on bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, J. Econometrics68:53–78; Kiviet, J. F. (1999), Expectations of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model: some results for weakly exogenous regressors, In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L‐F., Pesaran, M. H., eds., Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 199–225] are extended to higher‐order dynamic panel data models with general covariance structure. The focus is on estimation of both short‐ and long‐run coefficients. The results show that proper modelling of the disturbance covariance structure is indispensable. The bias approximations are used to construct bias corrected estimators which are then applied to quarterly data from 14 European Union countries. Money demand functions for M1, M2 and M3 are estimated for the EU area as a whole for the period 1991: I–1995: IV. Significant spillovers between countries are found reflecting the dependence of domestic money demand on foreign developments. The empirical results show that in general plausible long‐run effects are obtained by the bias corrected estimators. Moreover, finite sample bias, although of moderate magnitude, is present underlining the importance of more refined estimation techniques. Also the efficiency gains by exploiting the heteroscedasticity and cross‐correlation patterns between countries are sometimes considerable.     

Bootstrap-based bias corrections for INAR count time series

Integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) processes form a very useful class of processes suitable to model time series of counts. Several practically relevant estimators based on INAR data are known to be systematically biased away from their population values, e.g. sample autocovariances, sample autocorrelations, or the dispersion index. We propose to do bias correction for such estimators by using a recently proposed INAR-type bootstrap scheme that is tailor-made for INAR processes, and which has been proven to be asymptotically consistent under general conditions. This INAR bootstrap allows an implementation with and without parametrically specifying the innovations' distribution. To judge the potential of corresponding bias correction, we compare these bootstraps in simulations to several competitors that include the AR bootstrap and block bootstrap. Finally, we conclude with an illustrative data application.     

New block bootstrap methods: Sufficient and/or ordered

In this study, we propose sufficient time series bootstrap methods that achieve better results than conventional non-overlapping block bootstrap, but with less computing time and lower standard errors of estimation. Also, we propose using a new technique using ordered bootstrapped blocks, to better preserve the dependency structure of the original data. The performance of the proposed methods are compared in a simulation study for MA(2) and AR(2) processes and in an example. The results show that our methods are good competitors that often exhibit improved performance over the conventional block methods.     

Robust small area estimation

Small area estimation has received considerable attention in recent years because of growing demand for small area statistics. Basic area‐level and unit‐level models have been studied in the literature to obtain empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) estimators of small area means. Although this classical method is useful for estimating the small area means efficiently under normality assumptions, it can be highly influenced by the presence of outliers in the data. In this article, the authors investigate the robustness properties of the classical estimators and propose a resistant method for small area estimation, which is useful for downweighting any influential observations in the data when estimating the model parameters. To estimate the mean squared errors of the robust estimators of small area means, a parametric bootstrap method is adopted here, which is applicable to models with block diagonal covariance structures. Simulations are carried out to study the behaviour of the proposed robust estimators in the presence of outliers, and these estimators are also compared to the EBLUP estimators. Performance of the bootstrap mean squared error estimator is also investigated in the simulation study. The proposed robust method is also applied to some real data to estimate crop areas for counties in Iowa, using farm‐interview data on crop areas and LANDSAT satellite data as auxiliary information. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 381–399; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Moving Block Bootstrap for Analyzing Longitudinal Data

In a longitudinal study subjects are followed over time. I focus on a case where the number of replications over time is large relative to the number of subjects in the study. I investigate the use of moving block bootstrap methods for analyzing such data. Asymptotic properties of the bootstrap methods in this setting are derived. The effectiveness of these resampling methods is also demonstrated through a simulation study.     

Moment-based tail index estimation

A general method of tail index estimation for heavy-tailed time series, based on examining the growth rate of the logged sample second moment of the data was proposed and studied in Meerschaert and Scheffler (1998. A simple robust estimator for the thickness of heavy tails. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 71, 19–34) as well as Politis (2002. A new approach on estimation of the tail index. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 335, 279–282). To improve upon the basic estimator, we introduce a scale-invariant estimator that is computed over subsets of the whole data set. We show that the new estimator, under some stronger conditions on the data, has a polynomial rate of consistency for the tail index. Empirical studies explore how the new method compares with the Hill, Pickands, and DEdH estimators.